IPSOS presentation to IABC Calgary March 19 2009
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Transcript of IPSOS presentation to IABC Calgary March 19 2009
IABC/Calgary Luncheon - Turbulent Times and the Canadian Mindset
Tim MoroSenior Vice PresidentIpsos North America
March 19, 2009
2
The Small Print…
• Ipsos Reid has done no partisan polling for a political party since 1986…
• We do $170 million of market research in Canada of which 2% is for Governments (federal and provincial, all of which are on the public record)…
• We do $350 million of market research in North America and are part of the Ipsos group of market research companies spanning 45 countries with annual revenues in excess of $1.6 billion…
• We are the media agency of record of CanWest News and Global TV in Canada, The McClatchy News Company in the United States, and Reuters International…
• Our Calgary office – which is quickly approaching its 20th anniversary – provides full service research services through a local staff of 25 and the full resources of Ipsos North America.
Recession Through the Media Lens …
4
Its All About … Arrows
5
And About … Images
6
And, of course … Headlines
But What About Canadians?- Some important context for business
communicators
The Old & New Worlds of Communication*
*Acknowledgement to Neville Hobson. Presentation given to FEIEA 50 Conference, Brussels, Belgium October 2005
9
Influencers
Employees
Competitors
PartnersPress/Analysts
Prospects
Customers
Investors Potential employees
The Old World
MESSAGES
10
Influencers
Employees
Competitors
Press/Analysts
Prospects
Customers
Investors Potential employees
Partners
The New World
MESSAGES
11
Communication Approaches
New World Old WorldEngage & Participate Transmit
Advocate Preach
Influence & Persuade Command & Control
Informal & Conversational Formal & Instructive
Build Community Tell Your Audience
vs
Views on Corporations & Government
13
55%
49%
39%
Overall
Canada
US
“Major corporations are having a good influence on the way things are going in my country”
% Agree% Agree
74%
80%
82%
“Large companies have too much influence on the decisions of government”
High Singapore 87%Low France 28%
High Argentina & France 85%
Low Japan & Poland 57%
Overall
Canada
US
Continued …
North American & Global Views on Corporations
Survey respondents are the most involved population in each country defined by internet access, voting behavior, instigating political, economic and social discussions, signing petitions and purchasing based on
company’s ethical, social or environmental reputation. (n=1,000 adults in each country). Margin of error: ±3.1 percentage points per country. October 2007
14
58%
65%
55%
Overall
Canada
US
Survey respondents are the most involved population in each country defined by internet access, voting behavior, instigating political, economic and social discussions, signing petitions and purchasing based on company’s ethical,
social or environmental reputation. (n=1,000 adults in each country). Margin of error: ±3.1 percentage points per country. October 2007
“Government should have complete access to the private information of corporations doing business in their country”
72%
77%
67%
“Our government should be more aggressive in regulating the activities of national and multinational corporations”
High Turkey 80%Low Poland 30%
High Mexico 86%Low Japan 42%
Overall
Canada
US
North American & Global Views on Corporations continued
% Agree% Agree
A Global Perspective on the Economy
1616
Methodology
• Global @dvisor Semi annual study fielded in April & November.• N = 1,000 completes per country.• 95% confidence level, +/- 3.1% margin of error.• 75% of world’s GDP covered:
– US, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, South Korea, China, Japan, Australia, Russia, India, Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey,Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Great Britain.
• Internet Representation balanced by age, gender, city population, and education levels, with minor added weights applied.
• Sample audience is global elites known as the “Intelligaged™”– Upper 1/3 income with a college level degree
22,000 online surveys. 22 countries.
•Intelligaged™ is a trademark used by Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs, Inc. ("Ipsos Public Affairs") and shall not be reproduced or used in any manner without the prior written consent of Ipsos Public Affairs.
1717
Economic MeltdownAverage of all countries
A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [INSERT COUNTRY]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
(Very Good + Somewhat Good)
43%
31%
54%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08
1818
Economic Meltdown All drop except LATAM; Canadians really come back to earth
A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [INSERT COUNTRY]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
(Describe Economy as Very Good + Somewhat Good)
35%40%
19%
11%
62%
48%
32%
53%
39%
48%
32%
22%
70%
56%
45%34%38%
47%
61%
30%
50%51%
71% 72%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08LATAM USA APAC European Union G-8 Countries Bric
48%
80%
87%
68%
BRIC = key emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China
1919
Household Spending - % Cutting Back
72%87%
84%
84%83%
81%80%
80%77%
76%76%
75%75%
73%73%
70%70%
68%68%
59%59%
TotalSouth Korea
ArgentinaTurkey
MexicoFranceChina
The United States
Great BritainBrazilIndia
AustraliaItaly
RussiaJapan
CanadaBelgium
PolandSpain
The Czech RepublicGermany
J3. Given the current state of the global economy, have you and your family had to cut back on your household spending recently?
2020
Specific Cut BacksAverage of all countries vs Canada
76%
73%
72%
59%
53%
47%
41%
33%
23%
11%
81%
79%
78%
61%
61%
60%
48%
27%
25%
6%
Entertainment
Vacations
Luxury items
Clothing
Energy consumption
Gasoline/driving
Groceries
Cell Phone
Cable TV
Education
All CountriesCanada
J4. What are the specific things that you and your family are cutting back on these days? Base: respondents who have cut back in J3
US Issues
22
American Public Policy Issues: 2005 - 2009
Tracking the US National Issue Agenda
% February2009
April 2008
January2008
April2007
January2007
Apr2006
January2006
Apr2005
Economy 76
7
11
1
-
3
1
-
-
4
39 20 6 13 14 18 19
War/Foreign affairs 25 40 47 48 47 36 32
Domestic issues (NET) 25 28 31 28 29 37 40
Political leaders 5 5 6 9 8 12 5
Energy crisis 4 3 5 0 6 4 5
Morality 7 5 7 5 6 7 8
Education 2 3 1 2 1 1 3
Crime/Drugs - 2 3 4 2 3 2
Environment - 1 3 3 1 1 1
Other domestic issues 8 8 6 4 6 9 16
23
Trendlines In the US National Issue Agenda
76%
44%39%
20%15%
9%6%
13%9%
14%14%18%
24%28%
19%
7%
15%
25%
40%42%
49%47%48%44%42%
47%
36%35%40%
32%
11%
34%
25%28%
33%29%31%
28%31%29%29%
37%33%
26%
40%
Feb'09
Jul'08
Apr'08
Jan'08
Oct'07
Jul'07
Apr'07
Jan'07
Oct'06
Jul'06
Apr'06
Jan'06
Oct'05
Jul'05
Apr'05
Economy (Net) Foreign Affairs (Net) Domestic Issues (Net)
“American Public Policy Issues: 2005 - 2009
Budget 2009 - Fielded January 27-29, 2009
25
Overall Views on the Budget
Based on what you have seen, read or heard, would you say that the budget, overall, is:
Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
24%
18%
58%
27%
17%
56%
22%
12%
65%
25%
13%
63%
32%
18%
50%
11%
23%
66%
16%
19%
65%
Total (n=1027)BC (n=146)AB (n=95)SK/MB (n=74)ONT (n=363)QC (n=265)ATL (n=84)
Good and you'd symbolically give it two thumbs up
Bad and you'd symbolically give it two thumbs down
Neither good nor bad and you'd symbolically just
shrug your shoulders
26
Perceived Personal Impact of the Budget
Based on what you have seen, read or heard about the budget, do you think this budget…
Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
23%
7%
51%
19%
22%
8%
51%
19%
26%
6%
38%
30%
24%
5%
47%
24%
26%
7%
46%
21%
15%
5%
67%
13%
27%
9%
49%
15%
Total (n=1027)BC (n=146)AB (n=95)SK/MB (n=74)ONT (n=363)QC (n=265)ATL (n=84)
Will personally help you
Will personally hurt you
Neither
Don't know/Refused
27
Tax Cuts – How Would You Spend the Money?
One of the things in the budget announced Tuesday is a tax cut. Say that the tax cut worked out to be $1,000 for you and your family, which of the following would you spend it on:
Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
49%
26%
13%
7%
6%
12%
Pay down debt and credit cards
Putting money into savings
Putting money into tax-sheltered vehicles like RRSP's, RESP's,
new savings accounts
Spend on a big ticket item like a car or appliance
Put it towards or buy a house
None of the above
28
Do you agree that …
Agree Summary table (strongly/somewhat agree)
Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
61%
32%
53%
39%
51%
1) The Harper Government is committed to doing what it takes to get Canada's
economy back on track
2) This budget gives me the confidence to start spending again
3) The size of the deficit announced Tuesday shows that the Harper government doesn’t
know what it's doing when it comes to managing spending
4) The opposition coalition would have presented a better budget for these tough
economic times than theHarper government has
5) Helps the people most vulnerable to the current economic situation
2009 Housing Market Outlook Study - Fielded January 6-9, 2009
30
Tracking Views On Housing as an Investment
82%85%
90%90%87%85%86%84%79%77%
72%76%
17%15%10%10%12%13%12%14%
17%17%
25%19%
200920082007200620052004200320022001200019991998
Very good/Good investment Not a very good/Not a good investment at all
“Do you feel that buying a house or condominium is currently a very good investment, a good investment, not a very good investment, or not a good investment at all?”
2009: 2026 respondents; 2008: 3023 respondents; 2007: 2404 respondents; 2006: 2158 Respondents; 2005: 2,001 Respondents; 2004: 2,000 Respondents; 2002 & 2003: 1,500 Respondents; Previous years: 1,200 Respondents
31
48%52%52%
48%
58%
42%
Buy now Wait until next year
2009 2008 2007
Do you think it makes more sense to buy a house now, or wait until next year?
The Best Time to Buy A Home
2009: 2026 Respondents; 2008: 3023 Respondents; 2007: 2404 Respondents
Views On the Local Economy, Jobs & Personal Finances
February 2009
33
Weaker Same Stronger
Somewhat weaker Much weaker
11%
5%
22%
22%
33%
27% 9%
6%
6%
7%
15%
1
Much stronger Somewhat stronger
Views On the Local Economy - Today
“Compared to six months ago, do you feel that your local economy is stronger or weaker today?”
Feb ‘0954%
Jan ‘0959%
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
% Weak
BC AB SK/MB
ON QUE ATL
Feb ‘09 31% 29% 18% 54% 29% 42%
34
Somewhat weaker Much weaker
6%
23%
25%
26%
31%
3 19%
14%
21%
16%2
2
Much stronger Somewhat stronger
“Six months from now, do you feel the economy in your local area will be stronger or weaker?”
Views On the Local Economy – In Six Months
Weaker
Feb ‘0954%
Jan ‘0951%
Same
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
Stronger
% Strong
BC AB SK/MB ON QUE ATL
Feb ‘09 21% 27% 15% 24% 12% 24%
Jan ‘09 14% 17% 18% 18% 11% 27%
NET +7 +10 -3 +5 +1 -3
35
46%
54%
8%
29%
“Compared to six months ago, are you more confident about your job security for you, your family, or for others?”
Perceived Job Security
Less Confident
Feb ‘09
Jan ‘09
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
More Confident
% More Confident
BC AB SK/MB ON QUE ATL
Feb ‘09 8% 13% 9% 9% 6% 7%Jan ‘09 21% 34% 41% 23% 36% 29%
NET -13 -21 -32 -14 -30 -22
36
Job Loss Anxiety
26
3532
25
2119
21 2219 18 17 17 16 15 16 16
14
17 17 16 15
18
14
1820 20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990
1993
1995
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Feb 05May
05Sep
05Feb 06Nov 0
6Apr 0
7Aug 07Ja
n 08Feb 08Apr 0
8May
08Aug 08
Sept/O
ct 08
Nov '08
Jan '0
9Feb '0
9(P
erce
ntag
e of r
espo
nden
ts)
All Canadians
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
All Canadians
“Are you, or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off?”
37
Job Loss Anxiety – By Region
18% (+4)
21% (+8)
7%
(-9) 27%
(-4)
10% (-2)
22% (+7)
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
“Are you, or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off?”
38
Your Current Personal Financial Situation
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
17%
26% 50%
34%
22%
50%
Stronger Stable Weaker
Feb ’09
Jan ‘09
% Stronger
BC AB SK/MB ON QUE ATL
Feb ‘09 14% 22% 12% 16% 18% 12%
Jan ‘09 25% 32% 20% 22% 29% 28%
NET -11 -10 -8 -6 -11 -16
“Compared to six months ago, is your personal financial situation …?”
39
Somewhat weaker Much weaker
Same Stronger
Your Personal Financial Situation – In Six Months
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
8%
8%
9%
10% 2
1
5%
30%
19%
35%
24%
9%
Much stronger Somewhat stronger
“Do you feel that six months from now, your financial situation will be stronger or weaker?”
Weaker
Feb ‘0955%
Jan ‘0966%
% Stronger
BC AB SK/MB ON QUE ATL
Feb ‘09 38% 46% 39% 40% 24% 22%
Jan ‘09 23% 26% 17% 30% 18% 19%
NET +15 +20 +22 +10 +6 +2
40
Comfort In Making Major Household Purchases
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
“Compared to six months ago, are you comfortable in making major household purchases such as a home or a car?”
10%
21% 18%
48%
60%
41%
More Comfortable No Change Less Comfortable
Feb ’09
Jan ‘09
% More Comfortable
BC AB SK/MB ON QUE ATL
Feb ‘09 9% 15% 7% 10% 10% 12%
Jan ‘09 17% 25% 25% 20% 24% 17%
NET -8 -10 -18 -10 -14 -5
41
Confidence In Investing
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
“Compared to six months ago, are you confident to invest for the future, save money for retirement/children's education, etc?”
10%
28% 13%
51%
55%
39%
More Confident No Change Less Confident
Feb ’09
Jan ‘09
% More Confident
BC AB SK/MB ON QUE ATL
Feb ‘09 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% 11%
Jan ‘09 33% 32% 29% 25% 31% 23%
NET -20 -19 -19 -15 -25 -12
42
Time to Invest in the Stock Market?
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
65%
64%
31%
35%
No
Feb ‘09
Jan ‘09
Yes
% Yes
BC AB SK/MB ON QUE ATL
Feb ‘09 40% 47% 30% 36% 26% 32%
Climate Change & The Economy - Fielded February 17 – 23, 2009
44
Desired Timing of Action on Climate Change
To what extent do you agree with the following statement:“Serious action on climate change should wait until the recession is behind us.”
Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
13%
32%
34%
21%
12%
27%
43%
18%
20%
37%
32%
11%
8%
36%
34%
21%
14%
33%
32%
20%
10%
32%
32%
25%
12%
21%
39%
28%
Total (n=1003)BC (n=132)AB (n=101)SK/MB (n=69)ONT (n=375)QC (n=238)ATL (n=88)
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
% Disagree:•Total: 55%•BC: 61%•AB: 43%•SK/MB: 56%•ONT: 52%•QC: 57%•ATL: 67%
45
Climate Change Vs. Higher Deficits
To what extent do you agree with the following statement:“Canada should take serious action on climate change right now, even it if means higher deficits.”
Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
19%
37%
31%
12%
16%
36%
29%
18%
11%
31%
38%
20%
25%
27%
34%
15%
18%
37%
33%
12%
21%
44%
29%
6%
30%
38%
24%
8%
Total (n=1003)BC (n=132)AB (n=101)SK/MB (n=69)ONT (n=375)QC (n=238)ATL (n=88)
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
% Agree:•Total: 57%•BC: 53%•AB: 42%•SK/MB: 52%•ONT: 55%•QC: 65%•ATL: 68%
46
Climate Change Vs. Jobs
To what extent do you agree with the following statement:“It is more important for the Canadian government to focus on jobs than climate change at the moment.”
Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
30%
42%
21%
8%
34%
41%
16%
9%
33%
48%
13%
7%
27%
39%
24%
10%
32%
42%
19%
6%
26%
40%
25%
9%
16%
42%
33%
9%
Total (n=1003)BC (n=132)AB (n=101)SK/MB (n=69)ONT (n=375)QC (n=238)ATL (n=88)
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
% Agree:•Total: 71%•BC: 75%•AB: 81%•SK/MB: 66%•ONT: 75%•QC: 66%•ATL: 58%
47
Economic Stimulus & the Environment
To what extent do you agree with the following statement:“The Canadian government should only adopt economic stimulus measures that are environmentally sustainable.”
Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
23%
49%
22%
6%
21%
44%
27%
8%
18%
44%
29%
9%
26%
41%
32%
1%
19%
53%
22%
6%
30%
51%
14%
5%
32%
51%
10%
7%
Total (n=1003)BC (n=132)AB (n=101)SK/MB (n=69)ONT (n=375)QC (n=238)ATL (n=88)
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
% Agree:•Total: 73%•BC: 64%•AB: 62%•SK/MB: 67%•ONT: 72%•QC: 81%•ATL: 83%
Canadian Federal Politics - Fielded Feb 24 – March 5, 2009
49
Federal Voting Intention
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support
Base: Decided voters – Leaners included – N=1,735 MOE +/- 2.4 percentage points
37%
33%
12%
10%
8%
70%
15%
10%
6%
National (N=2,002)Alberta (N=182)
The Conservative Party
The Liberals
The New Democratic Party
The Bloc Quebecois
The Green party
n/a
50
Tracking Federal Voting Intentions
Federal Party Support
Conservative Liberal
October 14, 2008– Election Results
37.65%= 143 seats
26.26% = 77 seats
December 2 – 3, 2008 46% 23%
January 6 – 8, 2009 39% 28%
February 3 – 5, 2009 37% 31%
February 24 – March 5 37% 33%
From the Perspective of Employees
52
Concern & Absent Communications
• The Ipsos Better Workplace Syndicated Study was fielded in January 2009. A sample of 1,100 employees across Canada told us about their workplace, job security, career goals and overall wellness at work.
• Key findings of the study include: – 24% said their employer has or had plans to lay off staff– 50% had received no communications from their employer about the
issue of job security / layoffs etc– 45% who did receive some communication said that it was not
effective
• Effective communication is a cornerstone of employee loyalty andengagement. For many organizations, these findings do not bode well for their efforts to attract and retain the best, brightest and most effective staff.
Some Thoughts & Observations
54
Some Thoughts & Observations
Canadians are sending very mixed messages … but there are some keys forbusiness communicators to remember:• Participation, engagement & building community are requirements for
success in the new media ecosystem. These requirements have notchanged and will only grow in importance.
• Canadians believe that corporations have too much influence and that greater transparency and regulation should be imposed on their activities. It is likely that these views have or will grow stronger and become greater challenges to corporate communications.
• As the ‘hewers of wood’ and suppliers of energy to the world, global and US public opinion suggests that our economic circumstances will continue to deteriorate. But Canada has what the world wants and needs. Our recovery be among the most rapid.
55
Some Thoughts & Observations
• Many Canadians expect improvement in their local economy and personal financial situations, but nonetheless have told us that they intend to keep their wallets closed.
• There are causes for optimism - relatively low job anxiety, positive views on homes being good investments, a majority (55% in January) believing that Canada is on the right track - however the ‘paradox of thrift’ remains strongly in place.
• Emotion and psychology are critical determinants. Positive leadership and effective messages can make a significant difference to the economic behavior of Canadian businesses and citizens. There is clearly room for improvement in this regard.
• The months ahead are certain to be difficult. Nonetheless a steadfast commitment to effective communication (inform, educate, advocate) and relationship building is required to build / reinforce the foundation for the turnaround when it comes.
Closing With Some Irreverent Data for Communicators
57
Most Trusted Professions
87%85%
79%73%
52%42%
40%40%40%
36%
27%21%
10%9%
89%77%
57%49%
45%25%
16%24%
18%17%
12%11%
7%7%
94%Firefighters
Nurses
Doctors
Teachers
The Police
Accountants
Plumbers
Pollsters
Chiropractors
Financial Advisors
TV and Radio Personalities
Lawyers
The Press
CEOs
Car Salespeople
National Politicians
Extremely Trustworthy (6, 7) Trustworthy (5, 6, 7)
29
58
From Canadian Teens - Level of Coolness
58%
35%
6%
1%
36%
40%
9%
15%
MomDad
Cool
In between
Uncool
Don’t know
“How cool is your [mom/dad] on a scale of one to ten?”
Ipsos Reid Canadian Teens Panel May / June 2004
59
From Canadian Teens - Performance on Sex Ed
Ipsos Reid Canadian Teens Panel May / June 2004
22%
32%
20%
7%
2%
16%
7%
16%
15%
8%
6%
34%
MomDad
Excellent
Pretty good
Satisfactory
Could have done better
Hopeless
Has not explained sex to me at all
“How did you find your [mom’s/dad’s] attempts to explain sex to you?”
60
The Question “Why?”
“How do you answer your child aged 2 to 5 when he/she asks “Why?” about something you don’t know the answer to?”
14%
12%
64%
4%
3%
I tell him/her I don't know
I tell him/her I don't know and will try to find the answer on my own
I tell him/her I don't know and we try to find the answer together
I make up an answer
I know the answer to everything
Base: Canadian adults N=1,09 Margin of error: ±3.0 percentage points March 2007
www.ipsos.caTim Moro
Senior Vice [email protected]
403-294-7379
Jamie DuncanAssociate Vice President