Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - January 2016...Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2016 (Lib...

2016 POLITICAL MONITOR 29.01.2016

VOTING INTENTIONS

Voting Intention

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

39%

33%

10%

5%

8% 5%

All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention

Conservative lead = +6 Conservative lead = +9

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

40%

31%

11%

4%

7% 7%

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 752. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

3

SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

5


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?

+2.5% swing from December 2015

-0.5% swing from December 2015




-9 Net -18 Net -18 Net -10 Net -20 Net SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 36%

DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 56%

Satisfaction with Party leaders Dec’8 – Jan’16

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

6 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS

RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

42%

31%

CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE

31%

22%

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

7 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER?


CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

David Cameron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.

8 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


42%

51%

7%

January 2016 August 2006 –January 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ma

y-0

6

Oct-

06

Jun

-07

Dec-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Jan

-10

Jun

-10

Dec-1

0

Ma

y-1

1

Oct-

11

Ma

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Jan

-13

Jun

-13

Nov-1

3

Ap

r-14

Se

p-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Jul-

15

Jan

-16


SATISFIED 42%

DISSATISFIED 51%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -9

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Base: 332 Conservative supporters 18+ 23rd – 25th January 2016.

9 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


82%

14%

4%

January 2016 July 2006 – January 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ma

y 0

6A

ug 0

6Jan

07

Jun

07

Se

p 0

7Jan

08

Ap

r 08

Jul 08

Oct-

08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r 15

Jul-

15

Nov-1

5


SATISFIED 82

DISSATISFIED 14

DON’T KNOW 4

Net = +68

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Ja

n-1

6

31%

49%

20%

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

10 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


January 2016

SATISFIED 31

DISSATISFIED 49

DON’T KNOW 20

Net = -18


September 2015 – January 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-15

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

54% 32%

14%

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

11 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 306 Labour supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.

SATISFIED 54%

DISSATISFIED 32%

DON’T KNOW 14%

Net = +22

January 2016 September 2015 – January 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-15

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

22%

32%

46%

Tim Farron (satisfaction)


12 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


January 2016

SATISFIED 22%

DISSATISFIED 32%

DON’T KNOW 46%

Net = -10


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-15

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

61% 22%

17%

Tim Farron (satisfaction)

Base: 72 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.

N.B. small base size, indicative only.

13 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


January 2016 (Lib Dem supporters only)

SATISFIED 61%

DISSATISFIED 22%

DON’T KNOW 17%

Net = +39


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-15

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

r-1

3A

pr-

13

Ma

y-1

3Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-

13

Nov-1

3D

ec-1

3Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4M

ar-

14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4S

ep-1

4O

ct-

14

Nov-1

4D

ec-1

4Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

2A

pr-

15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Se

p-1

5O

ct-

15

Nov-1

5D

ec-1

5Jan

-16

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)


14 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


31%

49%

20%

January 2016 March 2013 – January 2016

SATISFIED 31%

DISSATISFIED 49%

DON’T KNOW 20%

Net = -18

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ma

r-1

3A

pr-

13

Ma

y-1

3Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-

13

Nov-1

3D

ec-1

3Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4M

ar-

14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4S

ep-1

4O

ct-

14

Nov-1

4D

ec-1

4Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

2A

pr-

15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Se

p-1

5O

ct-

15

Nov-1

5D

ec-1

5Jan

-16

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

Base: 67 UKIP supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.

N.B. small base size, indicative only.

15 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


87%

12% 1%

January 2016 March 2013 – January 2016

SATISFIED 87%

DISSATISFIED 12%

DON’T KNOW 1%

Net = +75 Dissatisfied

Satisfied

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

Economic Optimism Index


17 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


January 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ma

r-0

4

De

c-0

4

Se

p-0

5

Jul-

06

Jul-

07

Ma

y-0

8

Fe

b-0

9

No

v-0

9

Se

p-1

0

Jun

-11

Ma

r-1

2

De

c-1

2

Se

p-1

3

Jun

-14

Ma

r-1

5

Jan

-16

IMPROVE 26%

STAY THE SAME 31%

GET WORSE 39%

DON’T KNOW 4%

EOI = -13

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December

18 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

De

c 1

997

Jul 19

98

Fe

b 1

999

Se

p 1

999

Ap

r 20

00

No

v 2

000

Jun

20

01

Jan

20

02

Au

g 2

002

Ma

r 2

00

3

Oct

20

03

Ma

y 2

00

4

De

c 2

004

Jul 20

05

Fe

b 2

006

Se

p 2

006

Ap

r 20

07

No

v 2

007

Jun

20

08

Jan

20

09

Au

g 2

009

Ma

r 2

01

0

Oct

20

10

Ma

y 2

01

1

De

c 2

011

Jul 20

12

Fe

b 2

013

Se

p 2

013

Ap

r 20

14

No

v 2

014

Jun

20

15

Jan

20

16

-13

EUROPE

61

52 53 50

27

39 36

38

12 9

11 12

Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16

Stay in Get out Don’t know

European referendum

Base: 514 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.

20 IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?


Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?

Trend since 1977

21 IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?

26%

60% 63%

52% 49%

53% 51%

41%

61%

50%

65%

29% 27% 36% 35%

32%

39%

49%

27%

38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan

-78

Jan

-79

Jan

-80

Jan

-81

Jan

-82

Jan

-83

Jan

-84

Jan

-85

Jan

-86

Jan

-87

Jan

-88

Jan

-89

Jan

-90

Jan

-91

Jan

-92

Jan

-93

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Base: 514 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

STAY IN GET OUT

EU Referendum question:

Should the UK remain a member of the EU?

Base: 513 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.

22 SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE


October 2015

36%

52%

12%

32%

58%

10%

REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW

EUROPEAN UNION?

December 2015

36%

55%

9%

January 2016

6 5

4 5

32

32

30

26

37 36

37 38

20

24

26 25

4 3

3 5

Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16

Very confident Fairly confident Not very confident Not confident at all Don’t know

Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU

deal for Britain


23 PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?


CONFIDENT 38

NOT CONFIDENT 57

CONFIDENT 37

NOT CONFIDENT 60

CONFIDENT 34

NOT CONFIDENT 63

CONFIDENT 31

NOT CONFIDENT 63

57%

40%

3%

Have the EU referendum voters decided yet? AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.


October 2015

DEFINITELY DECIDED

MAY CHANGE MIND

DON’T KNOW

24

HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO [REFERENDUM VOTE AT Q9A/B – REMAIN/LEAVE] THE EUROPEAN UNION

OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?

Base: 919 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 and 918 British adults 18+ giving an opinion, 17th – 19th October 2015

January 2016

58%

39%

3%

1%

17%

64%

13%

5%

Will Cameron achieve his goals?

25 DO YOU THINK DAVID CAMERON WILL ACHIEVE ALL, MOST, A FEW, OR NONE OF HIS GOALS IN THE NEGOTIATIONS TO CHANGE BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 and 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December

ALL MOST A FEW NONE DON’T KNOW

December 2015

2%

18%

64%

11%

5%

January 2016

PARTY IMAGE

Parties and their leaders, and whether they look after

the interests of people like you

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY IF ANY DO YOU THINK………


43%

16% 4% 2%

3%

16%

16%

….has the best team of leaders to deal with the

country’s problems?

….would be best at looking after the interests of people like

you

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016

27

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM OTHER NONE OF THESE DON’T KNOW

33%

29%

8%

5%

5%

9%

10%

Parties and their policies

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY IF ANY DO YOU THINK………


35%

25%

6% 4% 4%

10%

15%

….has the best policies for the country as a whole? ….is most clear and united about what its polices should be


28

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM OTHER NONE OF THESE DON’T KNOW

33%

13% 11% 5%

8%

15%

15%

SHAREHOLDER DIVIDEND AND THE LIVING WAGE

Support for withholding shareholder dividend if do not

pay the living wage. (Split Sample)

30 I’D NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT THE LIVING WAGE. THE LIVING WAGE IS A SALARY WHICH IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR WORKERS TO HAVE A

NORMAL STANDARD OF LIVING, MEANING THEY HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD EVERYDAY THINGS LIKE FOOD, TRANSPORT

AND PAYING BILLS.

Source: Ipsos MORI

17%

66%

5%

SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW

24%

60%

5%

A) Does not mention Jeremy Corbyn B) Mentions Jeremy Corbyn

Base: Split sample A) 514 B) 513 British adults aged 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016

IT HAS BEEN PROPOSED [BY JEREMY CORBYN] THAT COMPANIES SHOULD BE BANNED FROM PAYING THEIR SHAREHOLDERS DIVIDENDS

UNLESS THEIR STAFF EARN THE LIVING WAGE. PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THIS IDEA?

TRIDENT AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Support for nuclear disarmament (Split Sample)

32

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: Split sample A) 514 B) 513 British adults aged 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016

58%

34%

8%

SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW

70%

24%

6%

A) Could you please tell me whether you support

or oppose the following policy? Get rid of all

nuclear weapons in Britain.

B) Could you please tell me whether you support or

oppose the following policy? Get rid of all nuclear

weapons in Britain even if other countries keep theirs.

52%

28%

16%

5%

Future of Britain's Trident submarines AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE IS A DEBATE CURRENTLY ON WHETHER OR NOT BRITAIN SHOULD REPLACE ITS TRIDENT SUBMARINES WHICH ARE

NEARING THE END OF THEIR LIFE. THESE ARE THE SUBMARINES FROM WHICH BRITAIN WERE TO LAUNCH NUCLEAR MISSILES IF IT WAS EVER TO

DO SO


BUILD NEW SUBMARINES AND

HAVE THEM CARRY NUCLEAR

WARHEADS

BUILD NEW SUBMARINES BUT

DO NOT HAVE THEM CARRY

NUCLEAR WARHEADS

DO NOT BUILD NEW

SUBMARINES SO TO

DISCONTINUE THE TRIDENT

PROGRAMME

DON’T KNOW

33


IN A RECENT INTERVIEW, JEREMY CORBYN, THE LABOUR LEADER, SAID IF THESE SUBMARINES ARE REPLACED THEY "DON’T HAVE TO HAVE

NUCLEAR WARHEADS ON THEM". THIS WOULD MEAN THE SUBMARINES WOULD BE REPLACED BUT DO NOT CARRY NUCLEAR WEAPONS,

ALTHOUGH THEY WOULD HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO DO SO.

WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW ABOUT RENEWING BRITAIN’S TRIDENT SUBMARINES?

2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - January 2016...Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2016 (Lib...

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