Ipsos Mori on Brexit and getting back to business
27
-
Upload
nadia-elghamry -
Category
News & Politics
-
view
950 -
download
0
Transcript of Ipsos Mori on Brexit and getting back to business
What happened?!!
The polls showed it was close…“Ipsos MORI’s final poll before the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union shows a tight race.”
Stuck inthe middlewith EU
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,592 British adults 18+, 21st – 22nd June 2016
Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-160%10%20%30%40%50%60%70% 62% 62%
53%
30% 26% 26%
8%12% 21%
REMAIN
LEAVE
DON’T KNOW
The public didn’t think we’d leave…Thinking ahead to the referendum on European Union membership,which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely?
There were other clues…
7
May1997
Jul1998
Sep1999
Nov2000
Jan2002
Mar2003
May2004
Jul2005
Sep2006
Nov2007
Jan2009
Mar2010
May2011
Jul2012
Sep2013
Nov2014
Jan2016
0
10
20
30
40Cameron becomes PM
Lowest score recorded (1%)
UKIP come first in European Parliament
elections
Treaty of Accession:10 new EU Member States
France and Holland reject ratification of EU constitution
Between 2005 and 2015 on average5% said EU was important issue
Highest score since December 1999 (30%)
1. We were never very enthusiastic EuropeansWhat do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Immigration/immigrants
NHS/Hospitals/Healthcare
European Union/Europe
Economy
48%
37%
32%
27%
+10
+4
+4
+4
%
Change since May:Top mentions %
2. Concern about immigration was increasingWhat do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 985 British adults 18+, 3rd-13th June 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
The impact on British jobs
Britain’s ability to make its own laws
The impact on Britain’s economy
The number of immigrants coming into Britain
15
3
46
12
9
32
19
54
Leave votersRemain voters
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Unprompted % – top responses only
Base: 1,592 British adults 18+, 21st – 22nd June 2016
3. Leave supporters were less interested in the economyLooking ahead to the Referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union on June 23rd, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helpingyou decide which way to vote?
10Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286)
Agree EXPLICIT
EMPH
ATIC
Agr
ee %
70% 80% 90% 100%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Remain voters: agree staying would be better for British eco-
nomy (79% vs 44%)
Leave voters: agree leaving would be better for British eco-
nomy(78% vs 45%)
Doubt / Lip service
Not on theradar
Confidence / Owned
Niche Appeal
And were as confident as remainers that theiroption would be best for the economy anyway
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults, aged 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Britain's economy over the next five years
Britain's economy over the next ten to twenty years
Your own standard of living
26
39
18
15
11
46
49
35
29
7
16
9
BETTERMAKES NO DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW
4. The argument about long-term and personaleconomic impact was far from won
If Britain votes to leave the European Union, to what extent do you think it wouldbe better or worse for each of the following, or would it make no difference?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Billions £ of bailouts
£350 million a week to EU
Turkey fast-tracked
European peace and stability at risk
Northern Ireland stability at risk
UK households will lose £4,300 per year
48
47
45
32
21
17
40
38
45
59
61
70
12
14
10
9
18
13
Base: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016
If Britain votes to remain…
TRUE FALSE DON’T KNOW
If Britain votes to leave…
5. Leave campaign messages were more believedDo you think each of the following is true or false about what would happen if Britain votes to leave/remain within the EU?
13
Among leave voters81% who said theywould vote to leave in
would still voteleave in April
October said they
October 2015
Remain 45%
April 2016
Leave 38%
Undecided
17%
Remain 39%
Leave 38%
Undecided 23%
Base: 1,593 British adults, aged 18+, surveyed online between 14-25 April 2016
6. Remain supporters had been more flakyAmong remain voters, 74% who said they would vote remain in October said they would still vote remain in April
Source: Patrick English, University of Manchester
And in the end turnout favoured Leave
A disUnited Kingdom
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisorBase: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
48%
35%
18%
42%
42%
16%
European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union
AGREE
NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE
DISAGREE
Could ‘Brexit’ lead to a domino effect?To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? If Britain left the European Union, other countries would follow
and elsewhere…
USArgentina
IndiaItaly
FranceAustraliaBelgium
GBTurkey
CanadaS Africa
TotalRussia
BrazilSpainJapan
PolandGermany
S KoreaSweden
China
69%
62%
60%
57%
56%
56%
54%
53%
51%
50%
50%
46%
45%
45%
42%
41%
41%
35%
28%
28%
22%
10%
11%
6%
9%
8%
12%
14%
5%
17%
7%
17%
8%
12%
13%
14%
13%
5%
9%
5%
21%
27%
34%
34%
36%
29%
34%
33%
44%
33%
43%
44%
38%
47%
46%
46%
45%
52%
67%
63%
73%
Agree
Disagree
Total
Great Britain
The Global Trends Survey
Q: To what extent do you agree or disagree…?
I would like…to be the way it used to be
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013
Patriotic nostalgia…
NATIVISM
SYSTEM IS
BROKEN
Immigrants take jobs away from real Americans
More and more, I don't identify with what America has become
When jobs are scarce, employers should prioritize hiring people of this country over immigrants
To fix America, we need a strong leader willing to break the rules
Traditional parties and politicians don't care about people like me
In America today, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer
41
55
56
48.5
69
70
23
27
26
27.1
22
20
37
18
19
24.5
9
10
Agree Neutral Disagree
‘Make America Great Again!’
20
The rich are to blame
Middle Class Economics
NativismTaking America BackVS.
Differential Framing: Inequality Opportunity Problem
21
A special relationship?!
and finally, housing…
Cameron becomes PM
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
May2014
May2015
May2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
“A8” Countries
join the EU
Highest score since October
1974 (21%)
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
Housing is a growing issueWhat do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 966 British adults (of which 150 London-based) 18+, 8 th – 19th April 2016Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Economy
Housing
Immigration/Immigrants
NHS/Hospitals
Education/Schools
European union/Europe
Unemployment
Low pay/Fair Wages
Crime/Law and Order/ASB
Inflation/Prices
34%
33%
30%
29%
22%
20%
19%
14%
11%
11%
22%
16%
41%
39%
18%
30%
18%
10%
11%
4%
London
Britain
Especially for Londoners…What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?Top mentions %
Gen X living at
home with parents
1998
Source: British Social Attitudes Survey
And younger generations…When each generations’ average age was 27…
20%Gen Y
living at home with
parents
2014
31%
26
OWN
5 years' time
Personally choose
38
68
30
17
15
6
7
5
6
3
2
But we remain a nation of home owners…But we remain a nation of (wannabe) home owners…Q: Which one of these do you think will apply to where you personally will be living in 5 years’ time in…Q: If you had a free choice, which one of these would you personally choose to live in in 5 years’ time?
Own Mortgage Private rentRentLA
Social rentHA
DK
