IPREO REGIONAL FLOW OF FUNDS...
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IPREO REGIONAL FLOW OF FUNDS SERIES
Western Europe
Media
Q2 2017
Flow of Funds: WEU Media
Market Overview
Institutional Investment Flow Highlights
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Net Change ($M Value) by Style
Q3-16
Q4-16
Q1-17
Q2-17
N. America 34.2%
W. Europe 28.9%
UK & Ireland 25.5%
Scandinavia 9.2%
Asia 0.9%
MENA 0.8%
Other 0.5%
Ownership by Region
Agg Gr./Growth 36.4%
Deep Val./Value 37.5%
Index 13.4%
GARP 4.8%
Specialty 0.5%
Yield 1.8%
Alternative 5.4%
Ownership by Style
• Q2-17 investor sentiment continued to show US equities out of favour. US equities were judged “by far” the most overvalued globally, with a net 84pc saying they are overvalued. Three quarters of respondents said US and global internet stocks were either “expensive” or “bubble like”, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) survey results for June 2017. The tech-heavy Nasdaq share index was seen as the “most crowded trade”, followed by Eurozone equities, which had enjoyed a lift after Emmanuel Macron’s victory. France was the most popular equity market in Europe in the same survey followed closely by Germany.
• Ipreo's analysis of Q2-17 funds flows showed, net inflows into Western European equities continued to grow for the third successive quarter nearly tripling to (+$29.9B) currently vs (+$9.2B) in the preceding quarter. The bulk of net inflows into the region continued to be driven by North American managers, particularly Index investors.
WEU Media • WEU Media equities have seen net selling of (-$422M) in the last 12 months to Q1-17 end with the bulk of this activity driven by UK & Ireland across a broad range of
investment styles. • Consistent with strong Index inflows into WEU equities in general Q2-17, WEU Media also saw (+$523M) inflows in the review period. Index inflows were led by BlackRock
Fund Advisors, Charles Schwab Investment Management, The Vanguard Group and Geode Capital Management in an environment that has seen record inflows into Passive strategies.
• German Media equities saw the most appetite from investors with the top beneficiary being Bertelsmann SE & Co. (+$199M), while French and Norwegian Media equities were the most sold down jointly (-$1.0B). Three of the top ten most sold stocks Publiscis Group, Havas and Television Francaise 1 were all French entities.
Outlook • Aug-17, shares of the world’s largest advertising company WPP had their worst day since 2000 . The agency has been the poorest performer in the media sector which
declined 4.8 percent overall this year against a resilient broader European market. The sector index which fell 2.7%, with WPP's French peer Publicis also down 3.2%. "Deteriorating trading conditions are a concern and ...we are minded to trim our full year profit before tax forecasts by 4 to 5 percent," said Roddy Davidson, media analyst at Shore Capital.
• A mix of profit taking and risk off attitudes are likely to drive Q3-17 fund flows as the latest BAML survey highlights, "fund managers are holding cash due to bearish views and fears of a crash in global bond markets”. Overally stimulative global monetary policy and policy mistakes from the US and European central banks are notable as among the biggest tail risks.
• Top WEU Media regional holder North America reverted to selling the sector in Q2-17 (-$1.1B) after topping inflows in the preceding quarter. Q2-17 outflows were driven by Capital World Investors (U.S) (Value), Lazard Asset Management (Value) and Invesco Advisors (Growth).
• UK & Ireland investor fund flows remained consistently negative for the last 12 months. The same region drove the bulk of overall net sales of the sector over the review period (-$550M), though this was over three times less than its net sales in Q1-17 (-$1.8B).
• WEU investors turned bullish in Q2-17 (+532M), following a net -$422M sales in the preceding 3 quarters. Current strong WEU investor inflows were driven by DJE Kapital, Norges Bank Investment Management, Moneta Asset Management and Caixabank Asset Management. DJE Kapital was buying Diversified Entertainment and Film Production & Theaters exposure whilst selling Publishing, Cable Television Systems and Television Broadcasting across WEU.
• In Q2-17, the biggest sellers were Value investors i.e. (-$958M). Value selling accelerated by a factor of 10 compared to the previous quarter. Despite this fact however Value investors were net buyers over the last 12 months (+$574M). Top Value buyers in the current quarter include Harris Associates, J.P., Norges Bank Investment Management (Norway), Moneta Asset Management and Wellington Management Company.
• Growth investors are the most consistent sellers of the sector over the last 4 quarters. Baillie Gifford & Company, Invesco Advisers and Mackenzie Financial Corporation sold (-$2.2B) collectively. Baillie Gifford & Company was a net seller of Marketing Services and Advertising Agencies, Cable Television Systems and Television Broadcasting with Publishing as the only industry to see inflows from this investor.
©2017 Ipreo. All rights reserved. None of Ipreo, its affiliates, or any of their third party providers is liable for any info rmational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions or decisions taken by any person as a result of any information contained herein.
Flow of Funds: WEU Media
Country / City
Total Equity Assets
($M)
Value
($M)
Activity
($M)
#
Firms Country / City
Total Equity
Assets ($M)
Value
($M)
Activity
($M)
#
Firms
United Kingdom (London) 2,064,145 16,832 -215 146 United Kingdom (London) 2,064,145 16,832 -215 146
France (Paris) 400,752 8,078 54 144 France (Paris) 400,752 8,078 54 144
United States (New York) 2,840,868 5,462 -425 77 United States (New York) 2,840,868 5,462 -425 77
United States (Boston) 2,210,320 4,077 -126 21 Spain (Madrid) 68,003 781 97 59
Norway (Oslo) 666,431 3,637 74 15 Sweden (Stockholm) 253,570 1,821 -18 35
United States (Los Angeles) 1,150,009 2,745 -808 10 Germany (Frankfurt) 313,120 2,089 16 30
Germany (Frankfurt) 313,120 2,089 16 30 Luxembourg (Luxembourg) 40,287 438 12 29
Sweden (Stockholm) 253,570 1,821 -18 35 Switzerland (Zürich) 288,740 708 -8 28
United States (Chicago) 354,458 1,174 329 17 Italy (Milan) 67,862 632 -54 24
Canada (Toronto) 601,000 938 -197 21 Switzerland (Geneva) 99,530 360 23 24
Excludes Passive/Index Investors 46,853 -1,316 516 Excludes Passive/Index Investors 37,201 -517 597
Top Holders Country Turnover Value ($M) Change ($M) % Port.
% Port.
Chg
Norges Bank Investment Management (Norway) Norway Low 2,887.6 86.4 0.5 3.1
Newton Investment Management, LTD United Kingdom Low 2,204.8 -99.8 4.9 -4.3
Fidelity International Limited - FIL Investment Services (U.K.), LTDUnited Kingdom Medium 1,564.6 -7.3 1.6 -0.5
Elliott Management Corporation United States Medium 1,556.8 0.0 10.5 0.0
Henderson Global Investors, LTD (U.K.) United Kingdom Medium 1,546.3 -99.1 2.5 -6.0
Fidelity Management & Research Company United States Low 1,492.7 -121.8 0.2 -7.5
DNCA Finance S.A. France Low 1,409.9 6.3 9.1 0.5
Northern Cross, LLC United States Low 1,073.2 -37.6 3.3 -3.4
Capital World Investors (U.S.) United States Low 1,030.9 -721.1 0.2 -41.2
Amundi Asset Management S.A. France Medium 919.2 -102.6 1.2 -10.0
9,760.3 -119.8
Top Buyers Country Turnover Value ($M) Change ($M) % Port.
% Port.
Chg
Harris Associates, L.P. United States Medium 816.3 328.6 0.8 67.4
DJE Kapital AG Germany High 436.2 171.4 9.4 64.7
Norges Bank Investment Management (Norway) Norway Low 2,887.6 86.4 0.5 3.1
Moneta Asset Management France Medium 189.1 82.7 5.7 77.7
J.P. Morgan Asset Management (UK), LTD United Kingdom Medium 428.6 74.7 0.4 21.1
Caixabank Asset Management, S.G.I.I.C., S.A. Spain High 95.8 73.2 0.7 324.9
Wellington Management Company, LLP United States Low 103.4 70.2 0.0 212.0
Gilder Gagnon Howe & Company, LLC United States Medium 94.5 70.0 1.4 286.2
BNP Paribas Asset Management France France Medium 473.7 67.4 1.8 16.6
Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH Germany Low 576.8 62.7 0.5 12.2
6,102.0 1,087.4
Top Sellers Country Turnover Value ($M) Change ($M) % Port.
% Port.
Chg
Capital World Investors (U.S.) United States Low 1,030.9 -721.1 0.2 -41.2
Lazard Asset Management, LLC (U.S.) United States Medium 303.8 -619.2 0.3 -67.1
Baillie Gifford & Company, LTD United Kingdom Low 116.1 -342.5 0.1 -74.7
Invesco Advisers, Inc. United States Low 703.7 -253.8 0.4 -26.5
Mackenzie Financial Corporation Canada Medium 304.7 -199.2 1.0 -39.5
Adelphi Capital, LLP United Kingdom Low 163.9 -136.4 15.3 -45.4
Fidelity Management & Research Company United States Low 1,492.7 -121.8 0.2 -7.5
Amundi Asset Management S.A. France Medium 919.2 -102.6 1.2 -10.0
Newton Investment Management, LTD United Kingdom Low 2,204.8 -99.8 4.9 -4.3
Henderson Global Investors, LTD (U.K.) United Kingdom Medium 1,546.3 -99.1 2.5 -6.0
8,786.1 -2,695.5
BOUGHT Securities Industry
Vivendi SA Diversified Entertainment
Bertelsmann SE & Co. KGaA Diversified Entertainment
Criteo S.A. Marketing Services and Advertising Agencies
Nos SGPS Television Broadcasting
Koninklijke Brill NV Publishing
SOLD Securities Industry
Publicis Groupe S.A. Marketing Services and Advertising Agencies
Schibsted ASA Publishing
Wolters Kluwer N.V. Publishing
Havas S.A. Marketing Services and Advertising Agencies
Mediaset S.p.A. Television Broadcasting
Growth 26,035
Value 125,553
Growth 14,279
Value 476,266
Growth 6,713
871,491
Value
Value
Deep Value
Growth
Value 77,118
635,843
32,070
15,575
Style
Alternative
Value
Growth
Growth
Style
Value
GARP
Value
Growth
Growth
Growth
Value
Most Invested Most Investors
Top Holders, Buyers & Sellers
Top Invested Cities
Growth
Style
Value
-218.8
Change ($M)
-521.6
-517.3
-477.0
-326.4
66.8
77.7
153.7
199.2
582.4
Most Bought & Sold Stocks
Change ($M)
Value
Growth
Equity Assets ($M)
61,743
14,785
97,744
44,719
613,647
Equity Assets ($M)
103,777
4,652
613,647
3,310
182,481
30,339
112,105
Equity Assets ($M)
635,843
89,695
132,895
Growth 44,719
Growth 61,743
Alternative 1,069
Growth 871,491
Value 77,118
for any actions or decisions taken by any person as a result of any information contained herein.
©2017 Ipreo. All rights reserved. None of Ipreo, its affiliates, or any of their third party providers is liable for any info rmational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions or decisions taken by any person as a result of any information contained herein.
• WEU Diversified Entertainment equities posted inflow (+$800M) driven by the buying of Vivendi (+$582M) and Bertelsmann SE & Co. (+$199M) respectively. The most sold stock came from the Marketing Services and Advertising sector in the form of French media company Publicis (-$522M) but in relation to this the most outflows overall came from the Publishing sector led by Schibsted (-$517M) and Wolters Kluwer (-$477M).
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Flow of Funds: WEU Media
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