IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)€¦ · Chapter 7: The Earth’s energy...
Transcript of IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)€¦ · Chapter 7: The Earth’s energy...
IPCC Working Group I (WGI)Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
Presented byGregFlato(viceChair),onbehalf of:
ValérieMasson-DelmotteandPanmao ZhaiCo-ChairsofIPCCWGI
2nd Lead Author MeetingVancouver, 7-11 January 2019
Working Group I AR6
Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information
ReferenceperiodsScenarios&temperature levels
SSPs andRCPs
InWGI:SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5Temperature :1.5°C,2°C,3°C,4°C
(plus1.5to6°C/0.5°Cstep)
Working Group I AR6
Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information
Large-scale climate change
Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information
Large-scale climate change
Targets,path dependence,overshootClimate response tomitigation,CDR,SRM
Climate changebeyond 2100Potential forlow-probability,high-impactchange
Working Group I AR6
Working Group I AR6
Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information
Climate processes
Working Group I AR6
Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information
Climate processes
Remaining carbon budgetsBiogeochemical implicationsofCDR,SRM
Working Group I AR6
Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information
Climate processes
Scenariosandtime-dependentimplicationsforradiativeforcing
andclimate responseSSPs
UrbanizationAirquality
Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information
Climate processesClimate andEarth systemfeedbacks
Estimates ofECS,TCR,TCREMetrics toevaluate emissions
Working Group I AR6
Working Group I AR6
Regional climateinformation
Chapter1:Framing,context,methodsChapter2:ChangingstateoftheclimatesystemChapter3:HumaninfluenceontheclimatesystemChapter4:Futureglobalclimate:scenario-basedprojectionsandnear-terminformationChapter5:GlobalcarbonandotherbiogeochemicalcyclesandfeedbacksChapter6:Short-livedclimateforcersChapter7:TheEarth’senergybudget,climatefeedbacks,andclimatesensitivityChapter8:WatercyclechangesChapter9:Ocean,cryosphere,andsealevelchangeChapter10:LinkingglobaltoregionalclimatechangeChapter11:WeatherandclimateextremeeventsinachangingclimateChapter12:ClimatechangeinformationforregionalimpactandforriskassessmentAtlasofRegional Climate Information
Regional messages,narrativesandstorylines
Connections to WGCM and CMIP6
• The IPCC, and through it, many other users, relies on the provision of Earth System Model results from CMIP, as well as the large body of literature that CMIP has inspired.
• As in the AR5, this is facilitated by the common data format, the ESGF infrastructure, and the common experimental design and forcing data.
• CORDEX results were not heavily used in the AR5, but we anticipate much more visibility in the AR6.
• Both CMIP an CORDEX results will be used in the ambitious Interactive Atlas that is being developed (a large step beyond the Atlas in the AR5).
• WGII is planning to expand on this Atlas.
Options:• Seasons • Regions• Scenarios:
• RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5• Warming 1.5, 2, 3º• Baselines
Datasets:• CMIP5 and CORDEX
data.
Variables/indices:• Temp. and precip.• Indices (hazards)
Prototype forFOD
WGI Interactive Atlas
TrainingwillbeprovidedtoundertakereviewofFODAtlas
Reproducibility:The full code to reproduce all Atlas products will be publicly available.
Metadata:All products will have attached metadata for full provenance and traceability.
climate4R:An R-based open framework
Gutiérez etal.(2018),Iturbideetal.(2019)
WGI Interactive Atlas
Codeforatypicalproduct:Future projections for a ETCCDI index(summer days) from bias corrected CORDEX data.
WGI Interactive Atlas
JupyterNotebooks:Documents combining formatted-text and code (R/Python) cells which can be executed interactively (remotely).
Output:productswithattachedmetadata
Provenance for WGI figures
Eyringetal.,GMD,ESMValToolv1.0,2016
Tagging: meta data attached to image files
ESMValTool + Python version
variables
models + observations
references
projects
contributing authors
input files (tracking id)
figure caption
statistics + metrics
domain
CMIP6 realm
plot type
namelist
theme
diagnostic
- https://cmip-esmvaltool.dkrz.de/
e.g.
WGI Data and InfrastructureInitiativesinprogresswithWGIAuthors,DDCmanagersandcommunityleadsinWGI-relateddataissues,relevantfortheestablishmentofTG-Data
• DevelopmentofaninteractivedigitalAtlasasaproductoftheWGIreportisaninnovativeaspectoftheWGIAssessment.TrainingwillbeprovidedtoreviewthedraftAtlas.
• Bestpracticesforthedevelopmentofcommonsoftwareforend-to-endprovenancetoensurereproducibilityoffigures.- AprivateGithub repositoryhasbeensetupfordevelopment.- AccountsforanalysisofCMIP6datawithESMValTool forIPCCauthorsatDKRZ
• WGIiscollaboratingwiththeCMIPInfrastructurePanel(WIP)todeveloptrainingonCMIP6dataandtheEarthSystemGridFederationfordataaccessandanalysis.ThiswouldbemadeavailabletothebroadercommunityandCMIP6users.
• AnIPCCGitHubenvironmentisbeingsetandscriptsandpost-processeddatafromtheSpecialReportonGlobalWarmingof1.5oCarebeingpreparedforpublishingbytheDDC.
• PreliminarydiscussionsonIPCCauthorsbeing'testusers'ofnewprototypecloud-basedinfrastructureforaccessandserver-sideanalysisofclimatebigdata.
• Enhanced awarenessandunderstanding(incl.underlyingassumptions)• Consistentterminology,information,data,usesoftimeframes• Consistencyacrosschaptersandreports• Coordinationinassessmentofwarminglevels,keyclimatevariables,naturaland
humansystemparameters(WGI-WGII)• Consistencybetweenclimatesystemparameters(WGI)andreducedcomplexity
modelsusedforclassificationofscenarios(WGIII)• Coordinatedcommunication(storylines)andintegration=>SYR
AR6 Coordination on Scenarios
• Hazardsforriskassessment,incl.compoundevents,airquality,lowprobability/highimpact,physicallyplausiblefuturechanges
• Confidenceinclimateinformationusedforimpact/riskstudies,incl.CMIP3-CMIP5-CMIP6,global/regionalmodels,andwatercyclechanges
Integration across WGI and WGII
• SeparationofCO2,CH4,N2O,otherGHG,SLCF• Healthco-benefitofnonCO2 mitigation• How tobestassess“commitment”(climatesystem,currentinfrastructureand
investments)
• Extremesandtheirimpacts(incl.inIAM)• Landusechangesandimplications• Geophysicallimits&clim.change(biomass,energy)
Integration across WGI-WGIII
Integration across WGI-WGII-WGIII
WGI 2019 Timeline
ScopingoftheTechnicalSummaryandSummaryforPolicyMakers
StrawmanTechnicalSummaryandSummaryforPolicyMakersdiscussedatLAM3
SRCCLFinalDraft29April
SROCCFinalDraft14June
WGIIInternalDraft10May
WGIIFirstOrderDraft18October
WGIIIInternalDraft22July
WGIIIFirstOrderDraft15December
WGI 2019 Timeline
WGI Timeline
201929April– 23June ExpertReviewofFirstOrderDraft26August– 1September ThirdLeadAuthorMeeting,Toulouse,France
2020
2March– 26April ExpertandGovernemnt ReviewofSecondOrderDraft1– 7June FourthLeadAuthorMeeting(locationtbd)15October Cut-offdateforacceptedliteratureforinclusioninthe
FinalDraft7December– 31January FinalGovernmentDistributionofFinalDraftand
GovernmentReviewoftheSummaryforPolicymakers
202112– 18April SubmissiontotheWGISessionforapprovalofthe
SummaryforPolicymakersandacceptanceoftheunderlyingReport(locationtbc)
TalanoadialogueUNFCCC
Globalstocktake2023
UNFCCC
Emissioninventories
ThePhysicalScienceBasis
TheSynthesisReport
ClimateChangeImpacts,
AdaptationandVulnerability
Mitigationof
ClimateChange
April2021 April2022October 2021
July 2021
Globalwarmingof
1.5 oC
Oct.2018 Sept.2019
Aug.2019
Land
Oceansandcryosphere
IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6)May2019