IPCC WGII Third Assessment Report – Regional Issues with Emphasis on Developing...

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Transcript of IPCC WGII Third Assessment Report – Regional Issues with Emphasis on Developing...

  • Slide 1
  • IPCC WGII Third Assessment Report Regional Issues with Emphasis on Developing Countries of Africa Paul V. Desanker (Malawi) Coordinating Lead Author Chapter 10 (Africa)
  • Slide 2
  • Outline Summary of Key Impacts Over Africa Some thoughts on Adaptation Some suggestions for emphasis
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  • Overall Science Basis Much improved science understanding of the issues of climate change for Africa Climate system: nature of variability at sub-regional level (Southern Africa, Sahel, etc), ENSO, climate variability Improved data on impacts of Extreme events (floods, droughts, major storm, disease epidemics) Seasonal forecasts used operationally
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  • African Climate Projected Climate: Trends, Extremes Persistent droughts feedbacks between climate and land surface condition Extremes projected to get worse Recent incidences of extremes example of vulnerabilities and very low adaptive capacity
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  • Cairo: Megacity, vulnerable to sea- level rise The Nile: vulnerable to climate variability and human pressures, transboundary issue
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  • Morocco: North Atlantic Oscillation climate variability and major impacts on fisheries
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  • The Sahel: -Rainfall Variability modulated by vegetation dynamics -Species loss -Major impacts on livelihoods
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  • Gulf of Guinea: Very large coastal cities vulnerable to sea level rise
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  • Central Africa: Land cover change interlinked with regional climate, impacta areas away from immediate deforested area.
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  • South-West Africa Coastal marine fisheries adversely affected by changes in Banguela current
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  • Southern Africa Droughts Impacts on economy shown
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  • Cape Flora Loss or displacement of species in biodiversity-risk Cape and Karoo areas
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  • Floods Populous coastal areas highly exposed to floods, also key infrastructure
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  • East African Great Lakes Lake levels very sensitive to climate variability
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  • East African Agriculture Growing season shifts have serious impacts on crops
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  • Droughts in Horn of Africa Recurrent droughts
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  • Grain yields are projected to decrease for many scenarios, diminishing food security, particularly in small food-importing countries (medium to high confidence). Sectoral Issues: Food
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  • Major rivers of Africa are highly sensitive to climate variation; average runoff and water availability would decrease in Mediterranean and southern countries of Africa (medium confidence). Water
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  • Extension of ranges of infectious disease vectors would adversely affect human health in Africa (medium confidence). - MORE MALARIA! Vector Diseases
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  • Desertification would be exacerbated by reductions in average annual rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture, especially in southern, North, and West Africa (medium confidence). Vector Diseases
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  • Coastal settlements in, for example, the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Gambia, Egypt, and along the EastSouthern African coast would be adversely impacted by sea-level rise through inundation and coastal erosion (high confidence). Settlements
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  • Summary
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  • Overall Adaptive Capacity Adaptive capacity of human systems in Africa is very low due to lack of economic resources and technology.
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  • Adaptation Constraints Region very diverse: while common problems, LDCs have differentiated needs given their very low economic ability
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  • Adaptation Constraints Multiple stresses: health, land use, climate, economics etc interlinked in affecting livelihoods. Complicates assessment of impacts, but requires that climate change be considered in context of sustainable development.
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  • Adaptation Constraints Adaptation to adverse impacts is local: -need to understand local climate change related hazards and develop programs to minimize risks at the local and regional level. -Each sector and region has critical needs, especially in LDCs where delayed action would make future actions more costly and lead to more damage
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  • Overall Vulnerability High Vulnerability of human systems high as a result of heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture; frequent droughts and floods; and poverty.
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  • Some Gaps Opportunities for Progress Lots of progress in observation of climate: need continued efforts Remote sensing systems offer regional monitoring capability that cannot be matched by ground systems Need more regional and national integrated assessment of impacts linked with development plans