IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report · IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I...
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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
Gaetano Leone - Jonathan LynnIPCC Secretariat
Geneva, Switzerland
13 February 2014
IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report
IPCC Overview Highlights from the AR5 WG I Report
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Structure
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Science Governments
Development of the WGI Outline
Approval of the WGI Outline
Nomination and Selection of Experts
Zero Order DraftInformal Review
First Order DraftExpert Review
Government ReviewSecond Order DraftExpert Review
Final Draft Government Review
Acceptance and Approval of the Report
Lead Authors
2011
2010
2012
2013
Election of Bureaux2009
2008
Sept2013
The Process for IPCC Working Group I
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Key SPM Messages
19 Headlineson less than 2 Pages
4
2009: WGI Outline Approved
14 ChaptersAtlas of Regional Projections
54,677 Review Commentsby 1089 Experts
2010: 259 Authors Selected
Summary for Policymakers~14,000 Words
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Warming in the climate systemis unequivocal
Human influence on the climate system is clear
Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of
greenhouse gas emissions
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Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).
(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.1
a)
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Warming in the climate system is unequivocal
(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.1
b)
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Fig. SPM.3
Warming in the climate system is unequivocal
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Human influence on the climate system is clear
(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.6
)
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Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C
relative to 1850 for all scenarios
(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.7
a)
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Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions
(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.1
0)
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TS T
FE.1
, Fig
. 2
The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, [...]
© IPCC
2013
Change in water cycle properties from 1986-2005 to 2081-2100 in RCP8.5
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Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006)
Atlas of Global and Regionale Climate Projections
42 global Climate Models 35 Regions 2 Variables
Temperature, Precipitation
4 ScenariosRCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5
2 SeasonsDec-Feb, Jun-Aug (Temperature)Apr-Sept, Oct-Mar (Precipitation)
Maps for 3 Time Horizons2016-35, 2046-65, 2081-2100Reference Period 1986-2005
Fig.
AI.3
, Fin
al D
raft
7. J
une
Mod
ified
from
Fig
. AI.4
, Fin
al D
raft
7. J
une
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Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Printed PublicationWGI AR5 Annex I, RCP4.583 Pages
Electronic Supplement 4 RCPs, additionalAnnual mean, all 4 Seasons for Temperature4 x 153 Pages
Atlas DataElectronically available as part of today’s release (30. Jan 2014)
Fig.
AI.3
6©
IPC
C 2
013
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Extreme weather and climate events (not part of Atlas)
The AR5 builds upon the 2012 IPCC special report on Extreme Events (SREX).
A comprehensive summary of the assessment of extreme weather and climate events is provided in the WGI Summary for Policymakers Table 1 and in the Technical Summary, TFE.9.
Table SPM.1 (page 5)
© IP
CC
201
3
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Remaining AR5 components:Calendar of approval sessions
Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityIPCC Working Group II (Yokohama, Japan): 25-29 March 2014
Mitigation of Climate ChangeIPCC Working Group III (Berlin, Germany):7-11 April 2014
Synthesis Report(Copenhagen, Denmark):27-31 October 2014
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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
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