Painted Pony Corporation Update - LNG Investment Conference 2014
Investor UpdateNov 08, 2019 · Update November 8, 2019. ... Location, Location, Location LEGEND...
Transcript of Investor UpdateNov 08, 2019 · Update November 8, 2019. ... Location, Location, Location LEGEND...
Why we do what we do…
We believe:
• world demand for clean and
reliable energy is rapidly
growing
• technological advancements
makes our energy cost
competitive on a world scale
• in developing our world-class
resource using the highest
standards, environmentally
and socially
• the world trusts doing
business with Canada
Our Mission is to establish Painted Pony as a low-cost supplier
of clean natural gas to Canada and the world.
Source: BP Global Energy Outlook, 2018
*Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels 1
Billion T
OE
(tonnes
of
oil e
quiv
ale
nt)
Oil
Coal
Perc
enta
ge o
f G
lobal Energ
y N
eeds
Gas
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) June 4, 2019
2
229
161 157
139
117
0
50
100
150
200
250
Coal Diesel Gasoline Propane Natural Gas
Clean-Burning Natural GasLowest GHG Emissions
Pounds
of
CO
2Em
issi
ons
/ M
MBtu
Compared to clean
burning natural gas,
CO2 emissions from
coal are 96% higher
while diesel emissions
are 37% higher
PONY supplements diesel
fuel with natural gas fuel
completion operations
which reduces per well
capital costs and lowers
PONY’s GHG emissions
Converting coal-fired electricity
generations plants to natural
gas (including LNG) reduces
GHGs by 48%...a REAL solution
to lowering emissions
Global LNG MarketDemand Growth
1 - Source: BP statistical review, Kepler Cheuvreux estimates (Equity Research Q&A Report, April 23, 2019)
Glo
bal LN
G D
em
and
(Mtp
a)(1
)
181
221240 241 236 240 245
257
287
308323
340357
374393
413433
0
100
200
300
400
500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
.
Global LNG demand could reach 433 Mtpa (57 Bcf/d) in 2025
Global LNG
demand increased
78%2009 - 2019
Global LNG
demand
forecasted to
increase
34%2019 – 2025(1)
Mtpa (Million Tonnes per Annum)
is a typical measurement unit in
LNG markets for production
Approximate conversion:
1 mtpa = 0.132 Bcf/d
1 Bcf/d = 7.576 mtpa
24
29
32 32 31 32 3234
38
4143
4547
49
52
55
57
Mtpa
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
Mtpa
3
4
Proposed West Coast LNG & LPG ProjectsGame Changer
AltaGas Ridley Island
Propane Export Terminal
40,000 bbl/d export
T-North Enbridge
Mainline
LNG Canada (Shell)
Export Facility
(Under Construction) T-South Enbridge
Mainline
36” and 30”Proposed
Woodfibre LNG
Export Facility
Petrogas Propane
Export Terminal
35,000 bbl/d export
Ferndale, WA
Coastal GasLink
LNG Projects Capacity
LNG Canada Shell, Petronas, Mitsubishi,
Petro-China, KOGAS (Under
Construction)
~1.9 – 3.8 Bcf/d
Woodfibre LNG(FID expected in 2019)
~0.3 – 1.0 Bcf/d
Kitimat LNGChevron / Woodside
~2.4 – 3.5 Bcf/d
Jordan Cove LNG (Washington state)
Pembina Pipeline Corp.
~1.0 – 1.6 Bcf/d
TOTAL ~5.6 – 9.9 Bcf/d
British Columbia
5
LNG Canada Construction UnderwayKitimat, BC Site
November 2019
August 2018
LNG Canada’s export
facility at Kitimat has
been under construction
since October 2018
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bcf/
d
Western Canadian
Conventional
BC Montney
AB Deep Basin
AB Montney
Western Canadian CBMWestern Canadian Solution Gas
Horn River
Shale
DuvernayRest of Canada
Conventional
Over the next 20 years, natural gas production from the Montney
in BC will continue to grow and by 2040 is estimated to make up
38% of Canada’s total natural gas production
Source: National Energy Board, Canada’s Energy Future, Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040, November 2018
6
NEBC Montney Massive Resource
2019
Alberta Natural Gas MarketContinued Demand Growth
7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Oilsands
Industrial / Petrochemical / Other
Alberta is expected to increase
natural gas consumption by over
45% between 2018 and 2023Electricity
Generation (including Coal-to-Gas Conversions)
2015
Natu
ral G
as
Dem
and (
Bcf/
d)
20150.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
• Significant demand growth is
taking place in Alberta
• Steady phase-out of coal in
electrical generation
• Increased demand for natural
gas in the oilsands
• Power demand continues to rise
• This does not include the impact
of west coast LNG exports
2015 2030
Electricity Generation Sources in Alberta
Source: GMP FirstEnergy, CAPP, AER
51% Coal
40% Natural Gas
9% Renewables
70% Natural Gas
30% Renewables
75% increase
in natural
gas demand
Corporate ProfileTSX: PONY
8Note: As at November 8, 2019
* RLI (Reserve Life Index) is calculated using 2018 2P reserves divided by Q4 2018 annualized production volumes of 315 MMcfe/d (52,453 boe/d)
2P Reserve Life Index* 60 Years
Enterprise Value $420 million
Common Shares Outstanding 161 million
First 9 Months of 2019 Average Daily Production 302 MMcfe/d (50,262 boe/d)
90-day Average Daily Volume 1.0 million shares per day
2019 Capital Budget $80 - $95 million
2P Reserves 6.9 Tcfe (1.15 billion boe)
PONY Ownership• Employees (65 full-time; via company savings plan) 1.9 million shares
• Officers (company savings plan and personal holdings) 2.7 million shares
• November PONY purchase (company savings plan) 210,000 shares
PONY Asset SaleSignificant Land Value
9
• Sold 11,280 gross acres (8,460 net acres) for cash proceeds of
$45 million
• Sale price of $5,300 per acre is consistent with average Montney
transactions over past two years
• Land sold was 4% of PONY acreage prior to closing for approximately 50% of
PONY’s market cap
• Cash proceeds reduced bank debt to $120 million on a $375 million bank
facility as of November 8, 2019
• No production or PDP reserves associated with the transaction
• No change to 2019 production forecast or capital budget
World Class ResourceMontney Pure Play
(1) As at December 31, 2018; see Advisories Section
(2) RLI (Reserve Life Index) is calculated using 2018 reserves divided by Q4 2018 annualized production volumes of 315 MMcfe/d (52,453 boe/d)
10
Natural Gas Pipeline
Coastal GasLink Pipeline
Asset• The Montney is the most economic
natural gas and natural gas liquids
play in Canada
• 292 net sections (186,727 net acres) of Montney lands
• 6.9 Tcfe (1,147 MMboe) Total Proved
Plus Probable Reserves(1) with 1.0 Tcfe
of Proved Developed Producing
reserves
Strategic Advantages• Firm transportation in-place allowing
access to a diversity of markets,
reducing commodity pricing risk
• De-risked reserves with deep
inventory of future drilling locations
2019 Capital ProgramDisciplined Capital Investment
• Current PONY budget maintains net capital spending within
adjusted funds flow from operations
• Investing $80 - $95 million for the year
• Forecast annual average daily production volume of
294 MMcfe/d (49,000 boe/d) to 306 MMcfe/d (51,000 boe/d)
• Program includes:
• Drilling 13 wells
• Completing 12 wells
• Estimated $4.3 million D&C costs assuming standard lateral well design of 1,800 meters
($4.9 million DCE&T)
2019 pricing based on WTI US$60/bbl, NYMEX USD$2.90/MMBtu, AECO CAD$1.90/Mcf, F/X CAD$0.76
11
Montney Pure PlayLocation, Location, Location
LEGEND
Painted Pony Lands
Painted Pony / AltaGas Facilities
Third-Party Facilities
Enbridge T-North Pipeline
Secondary Pipelines
PONY’s Montney Sweet Spot is:
• 4x thicker than the Marcellus at greater than 300 meters (approximately 1,000 ft.) thick
• a continuous sweet natural gas-saturated zone with no associated or underlying water
• on PONY lands with up to 1.8x over-pressured reservoir
• liquids cut of approximately 9% of production volumes during Q3 2019
• high liquids production of approximately 20%
at Townsend with potential at Beg and Jedney
• liquids production over a total of
approximately 100,000 acres or 50% of acreage
Townsend
Kobes
Blair
Daiber
Beg
West
BlairCypress
LEGEND
Painted Pony Lands
Painted Pony / AltaGas Facilities
Third-Party Facilities
Enbridge T-North Pipeline
Secondary Pipelines
Dry Liquids
38
sections
36
sections
40
sections
Blair
45 sections
12
South
Townsend
-
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
Source: GeoScout; As at March 6, 2019
57 of top
100 wells
are PONY
wells!
Top 100 Wells - Northern Montney Field (sample set of 1,394 wells)
Cum
ula
tive N
atu
ral G
as
(Mcf)
Painted Pony
Other Producers
The Sweet SpotNorth Montney 6-Month Cumulative Production Volumes
13
PONY has the best well
in North Montney with
6-month average daily
production rate of more
than 11 MMcf/d
16 of top
20 wells
are PONY
wells
British
Columbia
North
Montney PONY
• 1.0 Tcfe of PDP reserves
• 19% annual growth of PDP reserves at a cost of $0.55/Mcfe
• 31% annual growth of PDP NGLs to 14 MMbbls
• PDP reserve additions replaced 222% of annual production
• 3.1 Tcfe of 1P(1) reserves, including 38 MMbbls of NGLs
• 6.9 Tcfe of 2P(2) reserves, including 83 MMbbls of NGLs
• Average per well booking increased by 16% or 1.3 Bcfe to
9.2 Bcfe per well
• Reduced 1P(1) Future Development Capital by $308 million
• Reduced 2P(2) Future Development Capital by $657 million
2018 ReservesSignificant Resource, Significant Value
14
3.8 Tcfe
1.0 Tcfe
2.1 Tcfe
ProbableProven
Undeveloped
Proven DevelopedProducing (14% of Reserves)
3.1 Tcfe of
Total 1P(1)
Reserves
6.9 Tcfe of
Total 2P(2)
Reserves
(1) Total 1P – Total Proved
(2) Total 2P - Total Proved Plus Probable
2018 ReservesConsistently Profitable Recycle Ratios
15
3.1x
1.7x
2.8x
3.7x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
Proved DevelopedProducing
Total Proved Proved Plus Probable
2018 3-Year Weighted Average
2018 Corporate Netback
$1.71/Mcfe
PDP Finding, Development
& Acquisition Cost
$0.55/Mcfe
= 2018 PDP
Recycle Ratio
nmf
= 3.1x
(2016 - 2018)
Industry leading
PDP recycle ratio
nmf
TOU CNQ ECA PONY BIR VII PEY ARX CVE AAV POU NVA BNP CR BXE KEL SRX PMT PNE LXE PRQ
Pro
ved p
lus
Pro
bable
Rese
rves
(Tcf)
4
6
8
10
12
2
2018 Natural Gas ReservesFourth-Largest 2P Natural Gas Reserves
6.4
11.7
9.6
7.3
5.1
4.64.1 4.0
2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9
1.1 1.0 0.9
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Source: Company Reports; TD Securities / excludes NGLs and crude oil
16
Proved
Probable
4th largest natural gas
reserves of any publicly-
traded company in
Canada
Upper
Montn
ey
Mid
dle
Montn
ey
Low
er
Montn
ey
~ 3
30 m
Townsend Blair Beg
Productive Montney Layers
De-Risked Montney LayersProspective Montney Layers
Development HorizonsSignificant Unrealized Upside Across 7 Layers of Montney Resource
Doig formation
17
~ 2
90 m
Belloy formation
31 2 4 5 6
6
5
4
3 2
1Deep inventory of untapped Montney
opportunities across PONY’s 292 net sections
Canbriam TransactionClosed June 2019
18
• Canbriam Energy sold for $1 billion
• Offsetting acreage analog for PONY
• Validates land sale prices in NEBC
Montney Landholdings
Painted Pony Energy (186,727 net acres)
Canbriam Energy (171,436 net acres)
Major Gas Pipelines
Alaska Highway
Canbriam Deal Research Commentary Sell-Side PONY Analysis
“… With thrice the reserves carried by Canbriam, more than 6.0 Tcfe of proved and probable reserves, a multi-decade
drilling inventory and proximity to westbound pipe, Painted Pony remains the most logical next target for LNG players
looking for incremental supply ahead of project FID or construction… While LNG projects may still be a 2023/2024
catalyst, we do expect both LNG players and BC utilities to begin to scramble to lock up supply given the metrics paid
for Canbriam and expectations for a tighter gas market in NEBC go forward. In this vein, we expect PONY to announce
accretive long term gas supply agreements before year-end similar to the company’s Methanex deal that will materially
lower corporate risk and boost cash flow estimates for 2020 and beyond and potentially return momentum to the name.
A long term hold and core name, we believe Painted Pony is the purest way to play the LNG trade over the next five
years with near term catalysts and an attractive valuation…” July 26, 2019
Garett Ursu
Research Analyst
Cormark Securities
“… While each of the above [western Canadian gas-weighted] companies has unique characteristics that impact the
comparability to Canbriam … we believe that the implied transaction valuation is positive for the sector given the
relative strength of the metrics compared to those of publicly traded producers.…” July 29, 2019
Cameron Bean
Research Analyst
Scotiabank
“… We estimate that the deal value mapped to $1.0 billion based on Suncor’s Q2/19 disclosures, with metrics generally
favourable when compared to public companies. We don’t expect these metrics to come as a surprise to investors, but
provide an additional data point in what has been a quiet M&A environment.…” July 29, 2019
Michael Harvey
Research Analyst
RBC Capital Markets
19
Land Acres Valuation Equity Valuation
171,436 acres = $5,833/acre 186,727 $1,089 mm $769 mm $4.78/sh
Production
Q1 2019 Q1 2019 Value/boe/d Equity
36,953 boe/d = $27,061/boe/d 54,389 boe/d $1,470 mm $7.11/sh
YE 2018 Reserves
Reserves Purchase Price/boe Reserves Implied Value Value/share
PDP 76 MMboe = $13.14/boe 159 MMboe $1,757 mm $10.91/sh
1P 230 MMboe = $4.34/boe 511 MMboe $1,893 mm $11.76/sh
2P 408 MMboe = $2.45/boe 1,147 MMboe $2,485 mm $15.43/sh
Annualized Q1 2019 EBITDA Multiple
Ann. EBITDA=$150 mm = $1,000/$150 = 6.7x Ann. EBITDA = $212 mm x 6.7 = $8.82/sh
Canbriam Energy Transaction$1 Billion Transaction
Canbriam PONY
20Source: Canbriam June 2019 Corporate Presentation; Suncor owned 37% of Canbriam and disclosed the transaction value in their Second Quarter 2019 financial results
Land ValuationLand Sales Suggest PONY Undervalued
• The weighted-average price per acre
of land transactions for the past two
years for Montney parcels is
$4,703/acre
• 2019 corporate sale of Canbriam
Energy to Pacific Oil & Gas (a west
coast LNG exporter) further verifies
NEBC Montney value with 171,436
acres selling for $5,833/acre
• PONY’s 186,727 net Montney acres
carry an implied value, using recent
weighted-average per acre values,
of approximately $878 million
21
Montney Landholdings
Painted Pony Energy
Petronas
ConocoPhillips
Tourmaline Oil
Canbriam Energy
Saguaro Resources
CNRL
Black Swan Energy
Crew Energy
Storm Resources
Kelt Exploration
ARC Resources
Leucrotta Exploration
Todd Energy
NEBC Montney
Major Gas Pipelines
Alaska HighwayBernadet
$3,928/acre (23,422 acres)$92 million / March 2017
West Inga$3,984/acre (1,305 acres) $5.2 million / Sept 2017
Bernadet $9,095/acre (4,618 acres)$42 million / June 2018
Inga$3,117/acre (1,305 acres)$4,067 million / July 2017
Altares$5,623/acre (13,695 acres)
$77 million / July 2017
Bernadet (Conoco) $4,454/acre (34,580 acres)$154 million / April 2018
Market DiversificationHigher Prices for Natural Gas
Dawn
NYMEX
PONY Sales /
Pricing Exposure
Medicine
Hat
AECO
Station
2
Sumas
22
LNG
Export
Mexico
Export
U N I T E D S T A T E S
C A N A D A
M E X I C O
PONY
Growing US Natural Gas ExportsExports to Mexico 5.2 Bcf/d
LNG forecast year-end 2019 8.2 Bcf/d
2020 LNG additions 1.6 Bcf/d1Total (end 2020) 15 Bcf/d
1 GMP FirstEnergy Forecast – October 2018
MEDICINE HAT
14-year contract (began in 2017)
for PONY to deliver 10 MMcf/d to
Methanex’s methanol plant in
Alberta increasing to 20 MMcf/d
in 2021 and 50 MMcf/d in 2023
SUMAS Market
22 MMcf/d 2019
average (spot)
AECO Market132 MMcf/d 2019 average(fixed price & spot)
St 2 Market29 MMcf/d 2019 average(spot)
NYMEX Basis Contracts
45 MMcf/d 2019 average
DAWN Market
45 MMcf/d 2019 average
88 MMcf/d as of Nov 2019
(fixed price & spot)
Market DiversificationManaging Volatility
45% of PONY’s fourth quarter
2019 production revenue is
protected through a
combination of physical and
financial fixed-price contracts
at a volume-weighted average
price of $4.51/Mcfe
(average of $3.14/Mcf for natural gas
and $71.23/bbl for liquids)
23
Expected 2019 Q4 Production
Revenue by Source
SUMAS
DAWN
NYMEX
17%
12%
10%
18%
18%
12%
3%
11%
44%
NGLs$71.23/bbl
DAWN$3.70/Mcf
AECO / STN 2$2.47/Mcf
56%
AECO / STN 2
25
26%
10%
22% 24%
9%
25%
31%
37%40%
34%
10%
17%
18%
19%
16%
11%13%
11%
12%
12%
27% 29%
12%5%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
Natu
ral G
as
Volu
me N
et
Exposu
re b
y H
ub (
%)
Note: Percentages as of September 30, 2019
2020 annual production guidance has not been disclosed. 2020 annual production percentages assume flat annual production 2019 to 2020
AECO / ST 2 Sumas Index Dawn Index NYMEX Index
PONY regularly adds new contracts as part of ongoing risk
management through sales hub diversification
Sales DiversificationPONY’s Net Exposure of Physical and Financial Contracts
Transportation Firm Transportation & Toll Advantage to West Coast
Enbridge T-North Tolls
• Single toll structure
• $0.24/Mcf
• Pony can deliver at either Station 2
or Sunset Creek for single toll
TransCanada AECO Tolls
• $0.27/Mcf receipt on AECO at
Sunset Creek
• $0.19/Mcf delivery off AECO
• $0.81/Mcf delivery into Dawn
25
LNG Canada Export Terminal at Kitimat, BC
“…The purpose of the proposed
Project is to connect natural
gas producing areas in
northeast BC with the proposed
LNG Canada export facility near
Kitimat, BC, to access new
global natural gas markets…”
- Appendix F, Section 1; Coastal GasLink
Pipeline Project; Environmental Assessment
Certificate Application; Section 1.2.1
“Purpose of the Proposed Project”; page 3
PONY has a net $0.22/Mcf
transportation toll
advantage delivering
natural gas to Sunset Creek
(start of the Coastal
Gaslink pipeline) over
natural gas sourced in
Alberta due to AECO tolls
$3.10/Mcfe
2019f
Cost StructureChallenging Commodity Price Environment
($0.53)
($0.79)
($0.15)
($0.23)
($0.52)
$0.64
26*2019 pricing based on WTI US$60/bbl, NYMEX USD$2.90/MMbtu, AECO CAD$1.90/Mcf, F/X CAD$0.76
Townsend
Processing
Interest
G&A
Transportation
Operating
Cost
$0.76Forecasted Adjusted
Funds Flow from
Operations/McfeRoyalties ($0.06)Carbon Tax ($0.06)
2019 Top Line Revenue (forecasted*, includes Q1, Q2, Q3 actuals)
$0.12Hedging Gain
Adjusted Funds Flow
from Operations
$2.34Forecasted Cash
Expenses
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
Dri
ll a
nd C
om
ple
tion C
ost
($)
2,600 meter lateral well cost (drill + complete cost)
Perf & Plug Systems21 wells
D&C cost $7.7 million
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1st Generation Open
Hole Ball Drop System33 wells
D&C cost $6.9 million
Current Generation Open Hole Ball Drop
System
126 wellsD&C cost $4.3 million
As capital well costs fell, production type curves
dramatically improved
Management
Type Curve
increased
50%
well cost (drill + complete)
Historical CostsDrilling & Completions Efficiency
27
2018
$4.3 mm
average
(1) Total 2P - Total Proved Plus Probable
2019
Continued type curve
improvement with
average Total 2P(1) well
booking of 9.2 Bcfe/well
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
1,800 m standard lateral management type curve
Blair Long Lateral WellsEncouraging Performance
2,600 m lateral (202/c-038/094-B-16/00)
2,600 m lateral (200/c-038-F/094-B-16/00)
28
Using longer laterals PONY
has the opportunity to
improve capital efficiency
by approximately
$2,000/boe/d
Producing 2,600 m lateral wellsDrilled awaiting completion 2,600 m lateral
Blair
Daiber
Townsend
South
Townsend
Beg
Jedney
West
Blair
Cypress
Kobes
202/c-038/094-B-16/00
and
202/c-038/094-B-16/00
Wells choked
initially for sand
production
Well chokes
70%-80%
open
Both wells
completed with 30
stages using 0.85
tonnes/meter
Longer lateral wells drilled
into Upper Montney have
outperformed standard
lateral length wells
Days on Production (209 days total as at Sept 28, 2019)
Cale
ndar
Day N
atu
ral G
as
Rate
(M
Mcf/
d)
Single Well Economics* IRR NPV10 Pay Out
Daiber 1,800 m lateral(dry)
52% $5.1 mm 1.9 years
Daiber 2,700 m lateral(dry)
74% $8.8 mm 1.5 years
Blair 1,800 m lateral (lean; 15 bbls/MMcf)
47% $5.0 mm 2.0 years
Blair 2,700 m lateral (lean; 15 bbls/MMcf)
74% $9.0 mm 1.5 years
Townsend 1,800 m lateral(liquids-rich; 47 bbls/MMcf)
31% $2.5 mm 2.7 years
Single Well Economics by AreaDriving Increased Capital Efficiencies Through Longer Lateral Wells
*Single well economics based on $60/bbl WTI; $1.90/Mcf AECO; USD/CAD $0.76
29
Well Capital Costs
1,800 meter lateral
Drilling $2.2 million
Completion $2.1 million
Equip and Tie-in $0.6 million
Total $4.9 million
2,700 meter lateral
Drilling $2.3 million
Completions $2.9 million
Equip and Tie-in $0.6 million
Total $5.8 million
PONY’s recent longer laterals deliver higher rates of
return than previous standard length laterals drilled to
1,800 meters. Based on improved performance PONY
recently drilled a 3,000+ meter lateral well
0.0087
0.0076
0.0064
0.00410.0033
0.0000
0.0020
0.0040
0.0060
0.0080
0.0100
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
tonnes
CO
2e/boe
• PONY is committed to reducing GHG emissions through deliberate actions which produce measurable improvements
year after year, as evidenced by the 62% reduction in tonnes of CO2 emitted per boe since 2014
• PONY recycled 94% of flow back water during 2018 which greatly reduced the amount of fresh water taken from
surface sources needed to complete wells
• Participate in a ‘Water Co-operative’ with other producers in operating areas to share completion water further
reducing fresh water use
ESG Environmental, Social, Governance
Environmental
• In 2019 PONY began using natural gas to power
completion operations, further reducing CO2
emissions by replacing diesel as a fuel source
• Through rigorous maintenance and inspections of
our well-site vents to ensure optimal
functionality combined with use of best available
seals and actuator technology, PONY has been
consistently reducing year-over-year CO2
intensity in field operations to one of the lowest
in the industry
CO2 Emissions Reduction
Water Use Reduction
30
PONY strives to:
Grow relationships with local Indigenous neighbours to instill trust and earn support for current and
future operational activities
Strengthen employee effectiveness to create a culture of awareness and promote cohesiveness when
working with our Indigenous neighbours
Increase local Indigenous opportunities for employment and contracts that deliver mutual benefits and
promote sustainability
Painted Pony delivering Christmas Hampers to
Halfway River First Nation
PONY CEO, Pat Ward, speaking to the
First Nations Field Operator Class
ESG Environmental, Social, Governance
Social – Indigenous Relations
31
• Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. (ISS) is the world’s leading provider of
corporate governance and responsible investment ratings. On a 1-10 scale
where 1 is excellent and 10 is deficient, Painted Pony received a quality
score of ‘1’ in 2019, highest in our peer group of companies.
• Painted Pony has developed and implemented a complete portfolio of corporate
policies including:
• Code of Ethics
• Corporate Disclosure
• Health, Safety and Environment
• Whistleblowing
• Respectful Workplace
• Compensation Clawback
• Insider Trading
• Director and Officer Share Ownership
• Painted Pony believes in diversity and this is reflected by the three women on
the Board of Directors, with two chairing Board committees • Joan Dunne, Chair of Audit & Risk Committee
• Lynn Kis, Chair of Reserves & HSE Committee
• Betsy Spomer
• PONY’s board is 33% women, double the average for all TSX-listed companies of 16.4%*
ESG Environmental, Social, Governance
Governance
*Source: 2019 Diversity Disclosure Practices – published by Osler, Haskin & Harcourt
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Well situated to supply Canadian west coast LNG projects
Diversified Market Access and Sales Points
Massive reserves base
Top well performance
Industry leading PDP recycle ratio at 3.1x
Recent adjacent transaction shows significant upside value
Strong ESG Performance
Pony PointsChecking Off All of the Boxes
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Financial Strength Term Debt and Credit Facility Provide Financial Flexibility
$375 Million Syndicated Credit Facility• Secured, Reserve Based Lending
• Matures May 2021
• $120 million drawn as at November 8, 2019
$144 Million Term Debt (Senior Unsecured Notes)
• Held by Magnetar Capital
• 8.5% Coupon
• $150 million maturity in 2022
• Not callable until August 2020
$47 Million Subordinated Convertible Debentures• Held by Magnetar Capital
• 6.5% Coupon
• $5.60 Conversion Price
• $50 million maturity 2021 (subject to any conversion)
• ‘No Shorting’ Provision included
Debt Capital
Diversification
Syndicated
Credit Facility
Drawn (as at November 8, 2019)
Undrawn (excluding Letters of Credit)
Senior Notes
Convertible Debentures
Drawn on Credit Facility
$255
$120
$120
$144
$47
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Institution Analyst
AltaCorp Capital Patrick O’Rourke
BMO Capital Markets Michael Murphy / Ray Kwan
Canaccord Genuity Corp. Anthony Petrucci
CIBC World Markets David Popowich
Cormark Securities Inc. Garett Ursu
Eight Capital Adam Gill
GMP FirstEnergy Cody Kwong
IA Securities Michael Charlton
National Bank Financial Dan Payne
Paradigm Capital Inc. Ken Lin
Raymond James Jeremy McCrea
RBC Capital Markets Michael Harvey
Scotiabank Global Banking & Markets Cameron Bean
TD Securities Juan Jarrah
Equity ResearchSell-Side Analyst Coverage
35
Auditor KPMG LLP
Evaluation Engineers GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd.
Banks
Transfer Agent
The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
The Bank of Nova Scotia
Alberta Treasury Branches
Royal Bank of Canada
HSBC Bank Canada
TSX Trust Company
Corporate Office
Suite 1200, 520 – 3rd Avenue SW
Calgary, Alberta T2P 0R3
Toll Free Investor 1 (866) 975-0440
Tel (403) 475-0440 Fax (403) 238-1487
Email: [email protected]
www.paintedpony.ca
Corporate Overview
36
This presentation contains a summary of management’s assessment of results and should be read in conjunction with the Financial Statements and related Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the quarter
ended September 30, 2019, as filed on SEDAR. This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements, which include assumptions with respect to (i) drilling success; (ii) commodity prices; (iii)
production; (iv) reserves; (v) future capital expenditures; (vi) future operating costs; (vii) availability of gas processing facilities; (viii) cash flow; (ix) potential markets for the Corporation’s production; (x) the
availability of LNG export facilities; (xi) global LNG demand; and (xii) natural gas consumption. The reader is cautioned that assumptions used in the preparation of such information may prove to be incorrect.
Certain information regarding the Corporation set forth in this presentation, including statements regarding management’s assessment of the Corporation’s future plans and operations, the planning and
development of certain prospects, production estimates, reserve estimates, productive capacity and economics of new wells, undeveloped land holdings and values, capital expenditures and the timing and
allocation thereof (including the number, location and costs of planned wells), facility expansion plans, the total future capital required to bring undeveloped proved and probable reserves onto production, and
expected production growth, may constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws and necessarily involve substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking
statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond the Corporation’s control, including without limitation, risks associated with oil and gas exploration, development,
exploitation, production, marketing and transportation, loss of markets, failure of foreign markets to become accessible, the impact of general economic conditions, industry conditions, volatility of commodity
prices, currency fluctuations, environmental risks, competition, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, inability to obtain drilling rigs or other services, capital expenditure costs,
including drilling, completion and facility costs, unexpected decline rates in wells, wells not performing as expected, stock market volatility, delays resulting from or inability to obtain required regulatory
approvals and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources, the impact of general economic conditions in Canada, the United States and overseas, industry conditions, changes in laws
and regulations (including the adoption of new environmental laws and regulations) and changes in how they are interpreted and enforced, increased competition, fluctuations in foreign exchange or interest
rates and market valuations of companies with respect to announced transactions and the final valuations thereof. There is ongoing litigation involving the Blueberry River First Nation ("BRFN") and the British
Columbia government regarding the obligations of natural resource companies and the Crown relative to the adequacy of consultation and cumulative effects in respect of upstream oil and gas development in
northeast British Columbia, where a substantial portion of the Corporation’s land and assets are situated. The Corporation is not a party to the litigation. While a successful claim by BRFN may be adversely
material to the Corporation, at this point, the success of the claim and any corresponding impact is indeterminable. If the claim is decided in BRFN’s favour, it would have an adverse impact on the
Corporation, its operations and production, particularly for those operations that may be considered to impact Aboriginal traditional lands or rights. The Corporation is therefore, actively monitoring the status
of the BRFN claim. The Corporation’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no
assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits the Corporation will derive therefrom. All subsequent
forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, attributable to the Corporation or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Additional
information on these and other factors that could affect the Corporation’s operations and financial results are included in reports on file with Canadian securities regulatory authorities and may be accessed
through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com) or the Corporation’s website (www.paintedpony.ca), including the Corporation’s MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2018 and the quarter ended September
30, 2019.
The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date on the front page and the Corporation assumes no obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included forward-
looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws. Certain information contained herein is based on, or derived
from, information provided by independent third-party sources. The Corporation believes that such information is accurate and that the sources from which it has been obtained are reliable. The Corporation
cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, however, and has not independently verified the assumptions on which such information is based. The Corporation does not assume any responsibility for
the accuracy or completeness of such information.
This presentation also contains future-oriented financial information and financial outlook information (collectively, "FOFI") about prospective results of operations, future net revenue, share capital, cash
flow, capital expenditures, net debt and components thereof, all of which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations, and qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs. FOFI contained
in this presentation was made as of the date of this presentation and was provided for the purpose of providing information about management's current expectations and plans relating to the future, including
with respect to the Corporation’s ability to fund its expenditures. The Corporation disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements or FOFI contained in this
presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required pursuant to applicable securities law. Readers are cautioned that the forward looking statements and FOFI
contained in this presentation should not be used for purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein. The forward looking statements and FOFI contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this
cautionary statement.
Advisory
3
1
Non-GAAP Measures: This presentation may make reference to the terms “adjusted funds flow from operations”, “adjusted funds flow from operations per share”, "corporate netback" and “net debt”, which do
not have standardized meanings prescribed by IFRS and therefore may not be comparable with the calculation of similar measures presented by other issuers. Management of the Corporation believes these
measures are useful supplemental measures of the net position of current assets and current liabilities of the Corporation and the profitability relative to commodity prices. Readers are cautioned, however, that
these measures should not be construed as alternatives to other terms such as current and long-term debt or comprehensive income determined in accordance with IFRS as measures of performance. The
Corporation's method of calculating these non-GAAP measures may differ from other companies, and accordingly, may not be comparable to similar measures used by other entities.
Management uses “adjusted funds flow from operations” to analyze operating performance and considers adjusted funds flow from operations to be a key measure as it demonstrates the Corporation’s ability to
generate the cash necessary to fund future capital investment and to repay debt. Adjusted funds flow denotes cash flow from operating activities before the effects of changes in non-cash working capital and
decommissioning expenditures. “Adjusted funds flow from operations per share” is calculated using the basic and diluted weighted average number of shares for the period. These terms should not be considered
alternatives to, or more meaningful than, cash flows from operating activities as determined in accordance with IFRS as an indicator of the Corporation’s performance.
Management uses “net debt” as useful supplemental measures of the liquidity of the Corporation. Net debt is calculated as bank debt, senior notes, liability portion of convertible debentures, and working capital
(deficiency), adjusted for the net current portion of fair value of risk management contracts and current portion of finance lease obligation. These terms should not be considered alternatives to, or more
meaningful than, current and long-term debt as determined in accordance with IFRS.
"Corporate netback" is used as a supplemental measure of the Corporation's profitability relative to commodity prices. Corporate netback is calculated on a per unit basis as natural gas and natural gas liquids
revenues, adjusted for realized gains or losses on risk management contracts, less royalties, operating expenses, transportation costs and finance lease expense. This term should not be considered alternatives to,
or more meaningful than net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) as determined in accordance with IRFS. Included in this presentation are estimates of the Corporation’s 2019 adjusted funds flow which
are based on various assumptions as to production levels, commodity prices and other assumptions, are provided for illustration only and are based on budgets and forecasts that have not been finalized and are
subject to a variety of contingencies including prior years’ results. To the extent such estimates constitute a financial outlook, they were approved by management of the Corporation in December 2018 and are
included to provide readers with an understanding of the Corporation’s anticipated adjusted funds flow based on the capital expenditures and other assumptions described. Readers are cautioned that the
information may not be appropriate for other purposes.
NOTE REGARDING RESERVES DISCLOSURE
The securities regulatory authorities in Canada have adopted National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”), which imposes oil and gas disclosure standards for
Canadian public issuers engaged in oil and gas activities. NI 51-101 permits oil and gas issuers, in their filings with Canadian securities regulatory authorities, to disclose proved, probable and possible reserves, and
to disclose reserves and production on a gross basis before deducting royalties. Probable and possible reserves are progressively less certain estimates than proved reserves.
All reserves information in this presentation are presented on a gross basis. Gross reserves are the total working interest reserves before the deduction of any royalties and including any royalty interests
receivable. Reserves estimates set forth herein with respect to the Corporation are based on the independent engineering evaluation of the Corporation’s oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserves (the “GLJ
Report”) prepared by GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. (“GLJ”) effective December 31, 2018 and dated March 5, 2019. Before tax net present values set forth herein are based on a 10 percent discount rate and
GLJ’s January 1, 2019 forecast prices as applicable.
All estimates of future revenue in this presentation and in the documents incorporated herein by reference are, unless otherwise noted, after the deduction of royalties, development costs, production costs and
well abandonment costs but before deduction of future income tax expenses and before consideration of indirect costs such as administrative, overhead and other miscellaneous expenses. The estimated future
net revenues contained in this presentation and in the documents incorporated herein by reference do not represent the fair market value of the applicable reserves.
In this presentation:
a) the discounted and undiscounted net present value of future net revenues attributable to reserves do not represent the fair market value of reserves;
b) there is no assurance that the forecast prices and costs assumptions will be attained and variances could be material. The recovery and reserve estimates of natural gas and liquids reserves provided in this
presentation are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Actual natural gas and liquids reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided in this
presentation;
c) the estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of
aggregation;
d) boe amounts may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. Boe amounts have been calculated using the conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet (6 Mcf) to one barrel of oil (1 bbl). A conversion ratio
of 6 Mcf to 1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on
the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value; and
e) Mcfe amounts may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. Mcfe amounts have been calculated by using the conversion ratio of 1 bbl to 6 Mcf. A conversion ratio of 1 bbl to 6 Mcfs based on an energy
equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as
compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 1:6, utilizing a conversion on a 1:6 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
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2
Advisory
Reserves are the estimated remaining quantities of conventional natural gas, shale gas and natural gas liquids anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, from a given date forward, based on: (i)
analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical and engineering data; (ii) the use of established technology; and (iii) specified economic conditions which are generally accepted as reasonable.
Reserves are classified according to the degree of certainty associated with the estimates.
a) Proved Reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved
reserves;
b) Probable Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the
sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves; and
c) Possible Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the sum of the
estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves.
Other criteria that must also be met for the categorization of reserves are provided in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation (“COGE”) Handbook.
Each of the reserves categories (proved and probable) may be divided into developed and undeveloped categories.
a) Developed Reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from existing wells and installed facilities or, if facilities have not been installed, that would involve a low expenditure (e.g. when
compared to the cost of drilling a well) to put the reserves on production. The developed category may be subdivided into producing and non-producing.
(i) Developed producing reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing or, if
shut-in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainly.
(ii) Developed non-producing reserves are those reserves that either have not been on production, or have previously been on production, but are shut-in, and the date of resumption of production is
unknown.
b) Undeveloped reserves are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (for example, when compared to the cost of drilling a well) is required to
render them capable of production. They must fully meet the requirements of the reserves classification (proved, probable) to which they are assigned.
In multi-well pools it may be appropriate to allocate total pool reserves between the developed and undeveloped categories or to subdivide the developed reserves for the pool between developed producing and
developed non-producing. This allocation should be based on the estimator’s assessment as to the reserves that will be recovered from specific wells, facilities and completion intervals in the pool and their
respective development and production status.
The qualitative certainty levels referred to in the definitions above are applicable to individual reserves entities (which refers to the lowest level at which reserves calculations are performed) and to reported
reserves (which refers to the highest level sum of individual entity estimates for which reserve estimates are prepared). Reported reserves should target the following levels of certainty under a specific set of
economic conditions:
(a) at least a 90 percent probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimated proved reserves; and
(b) at least a 50 percent probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves.
A quantitative measure of the certainty levels pertaining to estimates prepared for the various reserves categories is desirable to provide a clearer understanding of the associated risks and uncertainties.
However, the majority of reserves estimates will be prepared using deterministic methods that do not provide a mathematically derived quantitative measure of probability. In principle, there should be no
difference between estimates prepared using probabilistic or deterministic methods.
Additional clarification of certainty levels associated with reserves estimates and the effect of aggregation is provided in the COGE Handbook.
For additional information regarding the presentation of the Corporation’s reserves and other oil and gas information, see the Corporation’s Form 51-101F1, which may be accessed through the SEDAR website
(www.sedar.com) or the Corporation’s website (www.paintedpony.ca).
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3
Advisory