Investor Presentation...This presentation includes certain financial measures that exclude or adjust...
Transcript of Investor Presentation...This presentation includes certain financial measures that exclude or adjust...
Inspired Packaging. A World of Difference.
Investor PresentationJuly 2020
2
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Any statements of the Company’s expectations in these slides, including but not limited to expectations regarding 2020 Adjusted EBITDA and cashflow
(including expectations for certain components thereof), timing and commercialization of PaperSealTM, reductions in costs due to CRB mill consolidation, the
cost impact of mill market and maintenance downtime, pension expense, depreciation and amortization, pension amortization, effective tax rate, and net
leverage, constitute "forward-looking statements" as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are based on currently
available information and are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company's present
expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Company’s operations and business,
inflation of and volatility in raw material and energy costs, cutbacks in consumer spending that reduce demand for the Company’s products, continuing
pressure for lower cost products, the Company’s ability to implement its business strategies, including productivity initiatives, cost reduction plans, and
integration activities, as well as currency movements and other risks of conducting business internationally, and the impact of regulatory and litigation matters,
including the continued availability of the Company’s net operating loss offset to taxable income, and those that impact the Company’s ability to protect and
use its intellectual property. Undue reliance should not be placed on such forward-looking statements, as such statements speak only as of the date on which
they are made and the Company undertakes no obligation to update such statements except as required by law. Additional information regarding these and
other risks is contained in the Company's periodic filings with the SEC.
NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
This presentation includes certain financial measures that exclude or adjust for charges or income associated with business combinations, facility shutdowns,
extended mill outages, sales of assets and other special charges or income. The Company’s management believes that the presentation of these financial
measures provides useful information to investors because these measures are regularly used by management in assessing the Company’s performance.
These financial measures are not calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (“GAAP”) and should be
considered in addition to results prepared in accordance with GAAP, but should not be considered substitutes for or superior to GAAP results. In addition,
these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures utilized by other companies, since such other companies may not
calculate such measure in the same manner as we do. A reconciliation of these measures to the most relevant GAAP measure is available in our latest
earnings press release which can be found in the Investors section on the Graphic Packaging website at www.graphicpkg.com.
GRAPHIC PACKAGING: LONG-TERM INVESTMENT CASE
• REDEFINING INDUSTRY LEADERSHIP WITH VISION 2025
• CAPTURING SUSTAINABILITY SUPPORTED ORGANIC GROWTH
• CLEAR PATH TO DELIVER PRODUCTIVITY DRIVEN MARGIN IMPROVEMENT
• STRONG FINANCIAL FLEXIBLITY TO ACHIEVE VISION 2025
• BALANCED CAPITAL ALLOCATION MAXIMIZING STOCKHOLDER RETURN
3©2020 Graphic Packaging International
4
FOOD, BEVERAGE, FOODSERVICE & CONSUMER PRODUCTS PAPERBOARD PACKAGING LEADER
$6.2B2019 SALES
87% 11% 2%Americas Europe ROW
8 75 3.8MPaperboard Mills Converting
Plants
Tons
Produced
MARKETS
Food
Beverage
Foodservice
Other Consumer
37%
20%
23%
20%
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
5
KEY CUSTOMERS ACROSS FOOD, BEVERAGE, FOODSERVICE & CONSUMER PRODUCTS MARKETS
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
37%of all folding cartons
in NorthAmerica
30%
SUSTAINED MARKET LEADERSHIP
#2 SBS Producer
22%5.4M ton U.S. market
#1 CUK Producer
58%2.8M ton U.S. market
#1 CRB Producer
52%1.9M ton U.S. market
of all paper cups in the U.S.
Source: PPC, AF&PA, RISI, GPI estimates
6©2020 Graphic Packaging International
POWERFUL, VERTICALLY INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL
PRODUCTS WE USE EVERYDAYHIGHLY EFFICIENT CONVERTING &PACKAGING MACHINERY
70% vertical integration results in best-in-class EBITDA margins; significant opportunities to drive integration rates higher
LOW COST, HIGH QUALITYPAPERBOARD MILLS
7©2020 Graphic Packaging International
Grow converting volume
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL OFFERS TREMENDOUS OPERATING LEVERAGE
• Europe
• Asia/Australia/New Zealand
• NorthAmerica
• Sustainability supported organic
growth
• Targeted share gains/acquisitions
• Increase integration across all
paperboard grades
• Conversions into CRB, CUK, SBS to
optimize mix
• Add incremental capacity for growth
(when clearly required)
• Reduce costs
• Expand product offering to support
customer requirementsOutsource to support
additional demand
Fill the millsInvest in the mills
Model
Drives EBITDA
& Cash Flow
8©2020 Graphic Packaging International
INVEST IN THE BUSINESS
9©2020 Graphic Packaging International
PURSUE TARGETED ACQUISITIONS
RETURN CAPITAL TO STOCKHOLDERS
• Invest to drive 100-200 basis points of organic revenuegrowth per year
• Drive productivity in excess of labor & benefits inflation within normalized capital spend ($325M per year)
• When capital spend exceeds normalized levels, clearly outline project scope and return profile
• Target after-tax IRR’s in excess of the cost of capital
• Expand geographic reach and participation in growth niches for paperboard packaging
• Increase paperboard vertical integration rates
• Extend runway for organic capital deployment at compelling IRR’s
• Purchase assets at post-synergy multiples below the long-term valuation trading multiple
• Dividends
– $0.30/share
• Share repurchases
– Repurchase shares opportunistically when share price is below intrinsic value of GPK
CAPITAL ALLOCATION PRIORITIES
BALANCED APPROACH TO CAPITAL ALLOCATIONFROM 2015 TO 2019, $3.4B IN ADJ(1) OPERATING CASH FLOW
NET DEBT LEVERAGE RATIOCommitted to long-term range 2.5x–3.0x range
STOCKHOLDER RETURNReturned significant value to stockholders
~17%Reduction in
share count
$484MDividends
$695MShare
repurchases
$244$295
$260
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS & PRODUCTIVITY(2)
Invested $1.5B in capital
~6% of sales driving $355M in productivity
$395$353
$74 $73 $57 $77 $74
TARGETED ACQUISITIONSAcquired 15 businesses for ~$1Bat compelling post synergy valuations
Combined with IP’s Consumer Packaging business in 2018 adding ~$200M in ADJ EBITDA and ~$75Msynergies
Multiples
(Pre/Post)
ADJ EBITDA
($M)
~8.5X
~$100
~5.6X
~$190
3.4%Current weighted
avg. interest rate
$ 1.4BLiquidity
3.3xQ220
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(2) 2018 productivity includes $35m in synergies; 2019 productivity excludes $36M of incentives & pension
(3) Includes $23M for CRB consolidation
10©2020 Graphic Packaging International
(5) (5)
(1) Operating cash flow in 2018 and 2019 adjusted to recognize net cash from receivables program
(4) Includes distributions to GPIP partner
(5) Share repurchases through June 30, 2020
(3)
(4)
ROBUST STOCKHOLDER RETURN COMMITMENT
• $250M Partnership Redemption in Q1 2020
• $158M Shares Repurchased June 2020 YTD at $12.82/share
• Since February 2015 repurchased $695 million of shares, representing 17% gross reduction from shares outstanding at program inception
TRACK RECORD OF STOCKHOLDER RETURN
SHARE REPURCHASE HISTORY $(M)
US $(M) $ Per ShareNumber of
Shares (M)
% of GPK
Shares At
Inception(1)
June 2020 YTD $158 $12.82 12 4%
Since Jan 2018
(1Q’18 – 2Q’20)$405 $12.27 33 10%
Since Inception
(1Q’15 – 2Q’20)$695 $12.57 55 17%
(1) Represents gross shares repurchased since inception
11
2016-2018 PRICE / COMMODITY COST DISCLOCATION FULLY RECOVERED
100-200 BPS / YEAR NET ORGANICREVENUE GROWTH MATERIALIZING
POISED FOR SALES, VOLUME, MARGIN & CASH GENERATION GROWTH
From 9 to 6 months
PRICE LAGS REDUCED
12©2020 Graphic Packaging International
-$8
$150
$124
$6
2016-2018 2019-1H20
VISION 2025
Partners
GROW WITH THE BEST CUSTOMERS IN THE BESTMARKETS
Profit
GENERATE SUPERIOR RETURNS
Planet
LEVERAGE SUSTAINABILITY PROFILE & REDUCE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
13©2020 Graphic Packaging International
People
ENGAGE EMPLOYEES IN A HIGH-PERFORMANCE CULTURE
VISION 2025
PartnersGrow with the best customers in the best markets
#1 paperboard market
share in North America&
Europe
$400M – $700M net new
product sales 2020-2025
included in organic growth
100 – 200 bps/year
sustainability supported,
organic growth
Strategic,
high return M&A
$400M – $500M in
productivity 2020-2025
to drive margin growth
14©2020 Graphic Packaging International
VISION 2025
ProfitGenerate superior returns
2019 Vision 2025
Paperboard Integration 68% 80 – 90%
Sales $6.2B ~$10B
ADJ EBITDA Margins 16.7% 18 – 20%
ROIC 8% 10 – 12%
ADJ EPS $0.87 $2.00+
Normalized Capex(% Sales) 5% 5%
15©2020 Graphic Packaging International
VISION 2025
Reduce water
usage by 15%
Reduce LDPE usage
by 40%
Reduce green house
gases by 15%
PlanetLeverage industry leading sustainability profile, reducing impact on the environment
4
Reduce energy
consumption by 15%
GPI products
100% recyclable
16©2020 Graphic Packaging International
VISION 2025
PeopleEngage employees in a high-performance culture
Top quartile
engagement scores
Reduce LTIR from
0.3 to 0.2 (Safety)
GPI University
30 hours of trainingper
employee, per year
Attract and retain the right
talent
Play on a winning team
17©2020 Graphic Packaging International
SUSTAINABILITY HAS BECOME A GLOBAL PHENOMENON & MANDATE WHAT BRANDS ARE SAYING….
18©2020 Graphic Packaging International
“Tackling plastic waste is one of my top priorities and I take this challenge personally. We are doing our part to address the issue head on by reducing, recycling and reinventing our packaging.”
—Ramon Laguarta, CEO PepsiCo
Soft drink giants Coca-Cola & PepsiCo have announced they are cutting ties with a trade association representing the plastic industry over concerns their memberships contradict a commitment to reducing waste.
—Newsweek, July 2019
Starbucks is aiming to double therecycled content in [their] cup by2022. It’s also testing more than 12greener technologies for paper cupliners.
—CNN, February 2019
Pepsi has committed to using only recyclable, compostable or biodegradable packaging by 2025.
—CNN, July 2019
In Germany, Aldi scrapped single-use bags. Aligned to its pledge to cut down plastic packaging by 25% by 2024, the new compostable bags are made of biodegradable material.
—Forbes, July 2019
Source: Goldman Sachs
The Kellogg Company is expanding its global sustainability commitments to include a goal of working towards 100% reusable, recyclable or compostable packaging by the end of 2025.
—Kellogg Company PR, October 2018
[McDonald’s] wants to have 100% of its customer packaging come from renewable, recycled, or certified sources and have recycling available in all its restaurants [by 2025].
—USA Today, January 2018
GPI SUSTAINABILITY INITIATIVES SUPPORT CUSTOMER ASPIRATIONS
Source: Goldman Sachs; Molson Coors Sustainability Report 2019
Renewable / Recyclable Sources
100% by2025
PBP Recyclable / Reusable / Compostable
100% by2025
PBP Recycled Content
17% by2025
Recyclable / Reusable Materials
100% by 2025
Elimination of 10 ProblematicPlastics
100% by2024
Recyclable / Reusable / Compostable
100% by2025
Recycled Content
25% by2025
Reusable / Recyclable / Compostable / Biodegradable
100% by2025
Recycled Content
30% by202550% by 2030
Recyclable Packaging
100% by 2030Recycled Content
Recyclable Products
100% by 2025Water Usage
-15%
Energy
-15%
19©2020 Graphic Packaging International
Green house gases
-15%
LDPE usage
-40%
PAPERBOARD PACKAGING WILL EMERGE AS A WINNER AMONG THE SOLUTIONS PREFERRED BY CONSUMERS
Paperboard Packaging
20©2020 Graphic Packaging International
Foam Cups
$1B
Plastic Cups
$1B
Foam Containers
$1B
Beverage Packaging
$1B
CPET Trays, Bowls
$500M
Stand-up Pouches
$250M
LARGE $5 BILLION ADDRESSABLE MARKET ESTIMATEDIN NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE FOR PAPERBOARD CONVERSIONS
CURRENT MARKET OFFERING
21©2020 Graphic Packaging International
TARGETING 100-200 BASIS POINTS OF NET ORGANIC GROWTH PER YEAR(10-15% OF ADDRESSABLE MARKET FROM 2020 TO 2025)
Paperboard
bowls
Microwave
cooking
solutions
Insulated
paperboard cups
(hot & cold)Packaging
machinery &
beverage
carriers
Packaging
machinery &
food can
containers
PE-free
cups
High strength
packaging
Food
containers
Ship in own
container (SIOC)
TARGETED, INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS
Compostable
cups
22©2020 Graphic Packaging International
PE-FREE CUP PROGRESS / CONVERSIONS EXPECTED IN 2021
Foam Cups
Major customers announced exits from foam Next gen plant-based lined cup; now more
cost effective
PE Coated Paperboard Cups PE-Free Cups (100% Plant-Based)
+40% cost premium to foam +50% cost premium to PE coated,
reduced to +10% to +15% at scale
Cost premium for 100% plant-based cup is currently ~50% more than a PE coated paper cup.
Expect to reduce the premium to 10-15% at scale with next gen PLA
2013 2019 2021
Recyclable
Renewable
Compostable
90% Renewable
Recyclable
Compostable
90% Renewable
Recyclable
Commercially
Compostable
23©2020 Graphic Packaging International
PaperSealTM
• PaperSeal was formally introduced in 2019
• Offers brands and retailers a new barrier-lined paperboard alternative, increasing food tray recyclability
• Customer programs underway with positive results
• Europe & Australia commercialized; expect to be commercialized in North America in 2021
• Large $1B total market opportunity
• Range of applications including proteins, cheeses, frozen foods, snacks, salads and fruits
DEMAND FOR SUSTAINABLE PACKAGING CONTINUES IN PANDEMICNEW MARKETS / NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
©2020 Graphic Packaging International 24
TWO MAJOR SOURCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT AND MARGIN GROWTH
TRACK RECORD OF ONGOING PRODUCTIVITY CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
Mill Curtain Coaters Automation
Monroe Facility
$50-70MPer Year
$100MAdditional PerYear
Kalamazoo
900kT
East Angus
100kT
~1,000kTTotal CRB capacity
Kalamazoo
500kT
Battle
Creek
210kTEast Angus
100kT
Middletown
170kT
White
Pigeon
70kT
25©2020 Graphic Packaging International
ONGOING COMMITMENT TO GENERATING $50-70M IN PRODUCTIVITY EVERY YEAR
SNEEK FACILITY MONROE FACILITY CURTAIN COATERS
• Invested Capital: $25M
• Most productive and flexible folding carton
manufacturing facility in Europe
• Increase sales capacity by $40M to support
conversions from shrink/plastic to paperboard
• Expect ~$10M run-rate EBITDA
• Invested Capital: $180M
• State Of The Art Fully Automated
1.3M ft2 of manufacturing & warehousespace
• Strategically located near West Monroe
paperboard mill to reduce logistics costs
• 400K converting tons per year
• Expect ~$30M run-rate EBITDA
• Invested Capital: ~$115M
• Macon and Kalamazoo investments in place
• West Monroe planned over the next two years
• Significant reduction in Latex and TiO2 usage
• Expect ~$40M run-rate EBITDA
TRACK RECORD OF ONGOING PRODUCTIVITY
26©2020 Graphic Packaging International
• Lowest basis weight and caliper profile in North America
27©2020 Graphic Packaging International
• Higher quality paperboard enables internal converting improvements and external customer benefits
• Significantly enhances sustainability profile
• Rare opportunity for a large, highly differentiating investment
• Fully supports customer mandates for high quality sustainable paperboard
• High return on capital employed with value driven by cost reduction
• World-class paperboard technology
• Best in class coststructure
• Lowest ongoing maintenance capital
• Leverage digitally native talent pool as population of skilled machinists shrinks
• Operating one large and two small mills focuses and simplifies operations
• One large mill reduces financial impact of ongoing maintenance downtime and mill system complexity
HIGHLY STRATEGIC AND UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO INVEST IN OUR CRB PLATFORM
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
AN INVESTMENT
IN THE COREMORE
“FUTURE-PROOF”
FOCUSED, SIMPLIFIED
OPERATIONS
HIGHEST QUALITY
PRODUCT
ANNUAL FIXED COSTS
28©2020 Graphic Packaging International
VARIABLE COSTS
$100M REDUCTION IN ANNUAL FIXED AND VARIABLE COSTS
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
~$70M ~$30MCost Savings Cost Savings
UNMATCHED CRB COST STRUCTURE POST INVESTMENT
Source: RISI
GPK Mills
Competitor Mills
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
GP
K K
ala
mazoo
GP
KE
astA
ngus
GPK $400/ton
Competitors (Avg)
$532/ton
~$130/ton
advantage
Production = ~2M tons
29©2020 Graphic Packaging International
Kalamazoo
QUANTIFIED BENEFITS
Note: WACC = 7%
(1) Date has moved from 2022 to 2024 due to the anticipated continued IP monetization
Not a material U.S. cash taxpayer until 2024(1)
Fixed CostReduction
• ~$70M, versus today’s
footprint
—Close Middletown
—Close Battle Creek
—300+ reduction in
workforce
Variable CostReduction
• ~$30M, at today’s
volumes
• Reduced commodity input
consumption
—Freight
—Chemicals
—Energy
—Coatings
—Fiber
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
HIGHLY STRATEGIC AND UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO INVEST IN OUR CRB PLATFORM
310MNPV
12%
IRR (after tax)
$
$0
($50)
($100)
($150)
($200)
30©2020 Graphic Packaging International
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049
FINANCIAL RETURNS
Unlevered Free Cash Flow from CRB Mills
COMPELLING POSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
31©2020 Graphic Packaging International
*Information based on Legacy GPI / Source: Schneider Electric and GPK Management Estimates
CRB MILL CONSOLIDATION
Current Future % Change
Green House Gases(Metric Tons)
497K 419K - 16%
Water Usage(Gallons/Ton)
916 614 - 33%
Purchased Energy(KWH/Ton)
1,901 1,562 - 18%
ANNUAL CRB PROFILE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT & RECENT FINANCIAL RESULTS
FULL YEAR 2019 FINANCIAL RESULTS
(US$ M) 2019 2018 % Chg
Net Sales $6,160 $6,029 +2%
Adj. EBITDA $1,030 $971 +6%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 16.7% 16.1% +60bps
Adj. EPS $0.87 $0.81 +7%
Adj. Cash Flow $528 $469 +13%
Global Liquidity $1,710 $1,280 ------
Integration Rate(1) 68% 67% +100bps
2019 GROWTH & INVESTMENT
• Adj. EBITDA met upwardly revised target, growing +6% y/y
• Adj. EPS increased +7% y/y to $0.87
• Volume driven by acquisitions & sustainability supported net organic growth
• Price to commodity input cost relationship improved $98 million
• Capital investment back into business of$353M including initial $23M in transformational CRB investment
• $1.7B in global liquidity
• Integration rate increased 100bps to 68%
Adjusted figures represent non-GAAP measures. Please refer to Q4 and full year 2019 earnings press release for
reconciliations to equivalent GAAP measures.
(1) Integration rate is defined as paperboard we produce which is converted in manufacturing facilities we operate.
33©2020 Graphic Packaging International
1H 2020 FINANCIAL RESULTS
(US$ M) 1H 2020 1H 2019 % Chg
Net Sales $3,210 $3,059 +5%
Adj. EBITDA $555 $527 +5%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 17.3% 17.2% +10bps
Adj. EPS $0.57 $0.44 +30%
Global Liquidity $1,413 $1,456
• Net Sales up 5% y/y
o Net organic sales growth of 3% y/y
• Adj. EBITDA +5% y/y
• Adj. EBITDA Margin +10 basis points
• Adj. EPS +30% y/y
• $1.4B in Global Liquidity
• Integration rate increased 200bps to 70%
Adjusted figures represent non-GAAP measures. Please refer to earnings press release for reconciliations to
equivalent GAAP measures.
.
EXECUTION & SOLID PERFORMANCE
34
• Solid Financial Performance Driven by Net Organic Sales Growth, Acquisitions and
Strong Operational Execution
• Agility, Preparedness and Focus on Employee Safety has Resulted in Best-in-Class Customer
Service and Continuity of Supply During Current Challenging COVID-19 Environment
• Continued Progress of our Strategic Priority to Increase Paperboard Integration Rate; Improved Another 200 Basis
Points from 68% in 2019 to 70% YTD 2020
• Delivered Positive Net Productivity of $10 Million in First Half Including $25 Million Net Negative Impact from Planned
Increased Maintenance Outages in Q2
• Critical Investments and Strategic Actions Remain On Track
o Kalamazoo CRB Investment On Time and On Budget
o White Pigeon CRB Mill Closed & PM1 Containerboard Machine Shut Down
• Maintained Significant Balance Sheet Strength and Flexibility with $1.4 Billion of Global Liquidity
• Reinstated Full Year Guidance: Adj. EBITDA $1.05 to $1.09 Billion; Adj. Cash Flow $200 to $275 Million
1H 2020 HIGHLIGHTS
©2020 Graphic Packaging International 35
• Delivering industry best
customer service levels
• Strengthening long-term
partnerships
• Collaborating with customers to
modify paperboard substrates
to meet increased demand
levels
• Successfully executing virtual
qualification trials where
needed
• 97% OTIF (On Time & In Full);
delivering supply chain
continuity across the Food,
Beverage, Consumer and
Foodservice markets
EMPLOYEES CUSTOMERS
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
COMMUNITIES
• Following all CDC guidelines
• Paid $5M in one-time payments
to front-line production
employees in Q2
• Plexiglass barriers installed on
production lines
• Temperature scanners in place
• Face masks provided to all
production employees
• Breakrooms reconfigured for
greater separation
• Employees monitoring
temperature / staying home if
sick
• Adhering to local, state and
regional government guidelines
• Completed $500K in
contributions to local food
banks in every community with
GPK manufacturing operations
• Working with government
administrations and industry
associations on safety
executive orders
• Organizing volunteer
opportunities with local and
national philanthropies to
support communities with GPK
operations
COVID-19 HEALTH AND SAFETY STANDARDS
36
FIRST 6-MONTHS 2020 NET SALES PERFORMANCE
$s in millions
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
+5%
37
FIRST 6-MONTHS 2020 ADJUSTED EBITDA PERFORMANCE
$s in millions
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
+5%
/ Deflation
Net Productivity $34.5M
Planned Maintenance ($24.6M)
38
FINANCIAL & BUSINESS IMPACT
Closure of 70,000 ton White Pigeon
CRB Mill
CRB investment in Kalamazoo on time
and on budget
Rationalization of two high cost
converting facilities
Downtime on SBS cup production paper machine;
conversions from CUK into SBS to support demand
Shutdown of non-core 120,000 ton
West Monroe containerboard
machine
• Working capital improvements
in 2H as inventory is worked out
of the system
• Long-term operating leverage w/
ongoing cost reduction, facility
rationalization, and maximizing
volume in lower cost facilities
• Matching our paperboard supply
with demand / taking market
downtime where needed
• CRB mill consolidation expected
to yield $100M reduction in
annual fixed and variable costs
in 2022 / 2023
• Curtain coater project will yield
$40M and supports $50-70M
annual productivity goal
ACCELERATING STRATEGIC ACTIONS
CONSOLIDATION / OPTIMIZATION
39
NOTE: Assumes hypothetical transaction taking place on 1/1/19 and the impact on 2019 results assuming $250M conversion at $16.50/share
reducing IP’s partnership units from 79.9M to 64.8M. Hypothetical conversion using debt includes proforma increased interest
expense using current market rates on incremental $250M debt. Adj. EPS calculated using 294.8M GPK diluted shares for both
actual results and conversion using debt, while using 309.9M diluted shares for conversion using shares.
INTERNATIONAL PAPER PARTNERSHIP MONETIZATION ILLUSTRATION:
$250M TRANSACTION FOR GPK SHARES OR DEBT
Actual 2019 Results
(Before $250M
Conversion)
$250M Conversion Utilizing
GPK Shares / Hypothetical
Impact on 2019 Results
$250M Conversion Utilizing
Debt / Hypothetical Impact
on 2019 Results
Adj. EBITDA $1,030M $1,030M $1,030M
Net Debt - 12/31/19 $2,720M $2,720M $2,970M
Net Leverage Ratio - 12/31/19 2.64x 2.64x 2.88x
Adj. Net Income $345M $345M $342M
Adj. Net Income Attributable to GPHC $256M $270M $266M
Adj. EPS $0.87 $0.87 $0.90
GPK Shares Issued & Outstanding –
12/31/19290.2 305.3 290.2
IP Partnership Units 79.9 64.8 64.8
Total GPK Shares/IP Units 370.1M 370.1M 355.0M
IP Ownership 21.6% 17.5% 18.3%
OPTIONALITY IN PARTNERSHIP MONETIZATION
40
Cash Flow Components
Cap Ex (~$625M)
Interest ($125M – $135M)
Tax ($30M – $40M)
Working Capital $0 – $50M
Pension ($10M – $20M)
EBITDA Components
Price $0M – $20M
Volume $0M – $20M
Commodity Input Costs(1) $10M – $30M
Net Performance $60M – $80M
L&B / Other(2) ($50M – $60M)
FX(3) ($10M – $15M)
(1) Represents input cost deflation
(2) Other primarily includes inflation associated with insurance and property taxes
(3) FX range at current rates
REINSTATING 2020 ADJUSTED EBITDA and CASH FLOW GUIDANCE
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
Adjusted EBITDA $1,050M - $1,090M Cash Flow $200M - $275M
350 ~6252019 2020 2021
$ $ ~625$
Normalized
325$
Significant cash flow generation expected in 2022Cap Ex ($M)
41
APPENDIX
2020 OUTAGE COST IMPACT AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
2019Actual
2020Guidance
Pension Expense/(Income)(1)
(includes pension amortization)$16M $14M
Depreciation & Amortization(2)
(excluding pension amortization)$447M $460M
Pension Amortization $10M $6M
Effective Tax Rate (Normalized) 25.8% 24%-26%
Net Outage Cost Impact Y/Y
Changes ($M) : SBS Mill Market Downtime in Q3; Macon Maintenance Outage Moved to Q4
(1) Pension expense for 2019 excludes $39.2 million non-cash pension plan settlement charge. Pension expense guidance for 2020 excludes $152.5M non-cash pension plan settlement charge.(2) D&A 2019 actual includes $4.7M of accelerated depreciation related to exit activities. D&A 2020 guidance range excludes approximately $26M of accelerated depreciation related to exit activities.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Last Schedule $0 ($28) $0 +$25
Maintenance Timing +$12 ($14)
Market Downtime ($12)
Current Schedule $0 ($25) $0 +$11
COMMODITY ANNUAL CONSUMPTION 2019 REVENUE BY CURRENCY
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Categories Units
Wood (Million tons)
10
Recycled Fiber (Million tons)
1
Natural Gas (MMBTU)
22
Caustic Soda (000, tons)
40
Starch (Million lbs.)
150
TiO2 (Million lbs.)
25
Polyethylene (Million lbs.)
105
80.7%
2.2%
0.4%
0.8%
2.6%0.4%
2.0%5.6% 4.6% 0.7%
USD AUD NZD BRL CAD
CNY MXN GBP EUR JPY
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
©2020 Graphic Packaging International
RECESSION RESISTANT MODEL HISTORICALLY
Last Recession - What happened in 2009?
Core folding carton volume declined 3.6%
Adj. EBITDA improved $81M y/y to $556 million or 14%
o $54M increase in Adj. EBITDA y/y driven by positive price/cost relationship, productivity, synergy realization
o $27M increase in acquired Adj. EBITDA
SBS industry demand down mid-to-high single digits in 2009, largely recovered in 2010(1)
(1) As reported by AF&PA; GPK did not own SBS assets until January 2018
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Net
To
ns S
old
(0
00
s)
US
$,
M
Adjusted EBITDA Net Tons Sold