Investor presentation Q1 2021 - Swedbank

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Investor presentation

Q1 2021

May 2021

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Disclaimer

2

▪ Certain statements made in this presentation are forward looking statements. Such statements are based on current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and performance to differ materially fromany expected future results or performance, express or implied, by the forward looking statements. Factors that might cause forward looking statements to differ materially from actual results include, among other things, regulatory and economic factors. Swedbank AB assumes no responsibility to update any of the forward looking statements contained herein.

▪ No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of Swedbank AB or its directors, officers oremployees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of Swedbank AB or any of its directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.

▪ This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Swedbank AB, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision.

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Table of contents

3

1 This is Swedbank – a sustainable bank 4

2 Quarterly financial update 20

4 Capital considerations 37

5 Liquidity and funding 43

6 Cover pool data 49

7 Swedish and Baltic economy 56

8 Swedish housing and mortgage market 62

9 Appendix 73

3 Asset quality 30

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1. This is Swedbank- a sustainable bank for

the many

This is

Swedbank

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Latvia

Population 1.9m

Private customers 0.9m

Corporate customers 75 000

Branches 21

Cards 1.0m

Number of card purchases 42.7m

Digitally active customers 0.6m

Lithuania

Population 2.8m



Branches 42

Cards 1.7m



Estonia

Population 1.3m



Branches 18

Cards 1.1m



Sweden

Population 10.3m



Organisations 69 000

Branches 159

Cards 4.4m

Number of card purchases 281m


* Share of loan book

Swedbank – a retail bank in four home markets This is

Swedbank

~86%*

~12%*

Sweden

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

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StrategicDirection

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Sustainability is at the centre of our Strategic Direction

7

By 2050, Swedbank has committed to carbon neutrality and interim target setting (Net Zero Banking Alliance, NZBA)

By 2040, The aggregate fund capital managed by Swedbank Robur will be placed in carbon neutral investments

By 2030, Reduce Swedbank’s direct greenhouse gas emissions by 60 per cent (base year 2019)

By 2025, Reduce energy consumption in the bank’s premises by 15 per cent (with interim 10% by 2021, base year 2017)

A strong commitment to sustainability is one of the most important strategic targets that the bank has set up

Sustainability Targets

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Focus areas in 2021A strategic direction on the basis of sustainability

Q1 2021 8

Drive further integration of

sustainability –

in everything we do every day

A financially sound and

sustainable society

Focus on fundamentals – building robust

sustainable finance compliance and strengthen

sustainability governance and transparency

Focus on customer value creation – empower

customers to make sustainable choices supporting

the transition

Measure environmental and social impact and

performance – develop and set long-term and

science based climate targets (SBT)

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Sustainable value creation Long-term sustainability equals long-term profitability

Q1 2021 9

Empower our customers to make

sustainable choices

KEY MESSAGES

▪ We empower the many

people and businesses

to create a better future

▪ A new proactive role of

banking is emerging• Set corporate level targets in

alignment with Paris and the

fulfillment of the UN SDGs

• Provision of finance to

investments with environmental,

social and governance

considerations

• Empower the many People to

create a better future by

supporting sustainable choices

• Offer sustainable savings,

green mortgages, solar cell

loans

• Empower the many Businesses to

create a better future by supporting

the transformation

• Offer green loans, sustainability

improvement loans, ESG-bonds,

renewable energy investments

• The SDGs: 17 global goals

• United Nations General

Assembly’s vision of society

in 2030

▪ The Paris Agreement

and UN SDGs

determine the future

operating environment

• Limit global warming

• Align finance flows with low

greenhouse gas emissions

and climate-resilient

development

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Key sustainability achievements in 2020

84% 63 2 108

…decrease of Swedbank's

direct carbon footprint 2010-

2020

…number of ESG-bonds arranged

by Swedbank, 24 % of total

volume of bonds that Swedbank

arranged during the year

…Swedbank’s Youth Financial

Literacy sessions in 2020

We empower the

many people and

businesses to

create a better

future

Responsible banking Risk management Long-term asset management Sustainable financing solutions

SEK 23.7bn

…in sustainable financing

provided by Swedbank

Monitoring the exposure in customer segments

that have been identified as having the highest

climate-related risks

Established Key Risk Indicators on the most

exposed parts of lending portfolio regarding

climate risk

Report according to TCFD recommendations

including the carbon footprint of equity funds

Committed to set science based climate targets

Signatory of Equator Principles

Swedbank´s subsidiary Swedbank Robur is

one of the leading asset managers in the

Nordic region, with a vision to be a world

leader in sustainable value creation

Swedbank Robur´s climate targets:

• The combined fund capital will be aligned

with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit

the global temperature increase to 1.5

degrees Celsius by 2025.

• The combined fund capital will be carbon-

neutral by 2040.

Swedbank Robur will reallocate investments

in the most carbon-intensive sectors in line

with the Paris Agreement requirements

Swedbank encourages sustainable business

models and offers financing products and

services that contribute to the transition to a

more sustainable society.

Swedbank Sustainability Capital Markets

provides advice on green equity, green, social

and sustainability bonds

Three green bonds have been issued by the

bank.

10

52%

…Assets under management

with extended ESG exclusion

criteria and/or positive inclusion

Target for 2021:

Increase sustainable financing to

reduce the bank’s negative impact

on climate change and resource

efficiency.

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Sustainability – Q1 accomplishments

Swedbank recent commitments and recognitions

Enabling customers to make smart and sustainable choices

Swedbank´s position on climate change updated stating that Swedbank

shall:

• Not directly finance unconventional fossil fuel production such as shale

oil/gas, arctic oil/gas or oil sand.

• Not directly finance exploration of new oil or gas fields, although we can

finance clients with such activities if the business strategy is aligned with the

Paris Agreement.

• During Q1 2021, Swedbank was in the top three as an underwriter for ESG bonds

(green, social and sustainability bonds) in the Nordics.

• ESG bonds in SEK, NOK and EUR accounted for ~18% of the total issuance volume

arranged by Swedbank Capital Markets.

Strong ESG footprint in Capital Markets

11

Swedbank Robur invests SEK 400m in the World Bank’s Sustainable

Development Bond with the focus on raising awareness for gender equality

and health.

Swedbank Robur has published its Climate report for 2020 concluding that

the absolute majority of the equity funds remain more carbon efficient than

their respective benchmarks and the share of investments in green bonds has

tripled in the last two years alone.

Swedbank completed Level 1 of the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure

regulations (SFDR)

Q1 2021

*ESG bonds includes Green, Social & Sustainability bonds

• Included in Dow Jones Sustainability Index

(World and Europe)

• Industry winner in Sustainable Brand™ 2021.

For the second year in a row, Swedbank was

recognised as the winner in banking industry

in all three Baltic countries.

• Swedbank Sustainability Committee was established to provide support for the

effective management and governance of the sustainability perspective in the Group.

Also, to support and promote an ethical standard, integrity and the corporate values

in the organisation. Decision was taken by Group Executive Committee in mid-

February.

Strengthened governance

Financing of renewable

energy solutions

CICERO

Joint Lead Manager

February 2021

Due 2025

EUR 250m

Financing of green and

energy efficient buildings

CICERO

Joint Bookrunner

February 2021

Due 2025

SEK 2.5bn

Financing according to

Green Bond Framework

Sustainalytics

Joint Bookrunner

February 2021

Due 2024

SEK 5.5bn

Financing of renewable energy solutions

DNV GL

Joint Bookrunner

February 2021

Due 2025

NOK 2.5bn

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Swedbank implementation of TCFD recommendations

12

TCFD

portfolio

• Swedbank does not directly finance coal-fired power plants or finance companies that

generate over 5 per cent of their revenue from coal production.

• Swedbank does not to grant new financing for the prospecting of new oil and gas fields

or for unconventional extraction of fossil fuels.

• The position statements serve as the basis of the Group’s exclusion list of companies it

will not work with.

Swedbank's position on climate change

We continuosly monitor our loan portfolio from the standpoint of climate-related risks and

have implemented the decision not to finance unconventional extraction of fossil fuels and

prospecting of new oil and gas sources, which means our oil-related lending will shrink.

• Support the increased investment need in the transition to a low carbon economy

• Identify, measure and monitor transition and physical climate risks

• Increase climate change awareness and enhance transparent reporting

Important areas for the bank to focus on to mitigate climate risks

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Principles for Responsible BankingCommitment to align business strategy to Paris Agreement and UN SDG:s

13

In 2020 Swedbank conducted its first Portfolio Impact Analysis using the methodology provided by UNEP Financial Initiative.

- Through the analysis, we determined that the bank, through its business, impacts climate change (emissions), resource efficiency (consumption),

access to housing and decent employment.

- The analysis shows that Swedbank, through activities in the real estate and manufacturing sectors, as well as the professional, scientific and technological

sectors, has a positive impact on housing and employment.

- Conversely, there were negative impacts on the areas of climate change and resource efficiency from activities in property management, manufacturing,

agriculture, forestry and fishing, as well as in the energy sector connected with the extraction of fossil fuels.

Portfolio Impact Analysis 2020

Set science based climate targets for the real estate sector that align with the Paris Agreement.

The baseline year is 2020

1

Increase our sustainable finance offering compared with 2020. To achieve this the bank will

work with customers by offering advice & financing solutions to support transition

2

Targets set for 2021 to address our impacts

Through our core business we have both:

• Positive Social impact

• Negative Environmental impact

Key conclusions on impact

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Key Features of the Green Bond Framework

• Green Bonds enable and support sustainable financing by

demonstrating commitment to Swedbank’s overall

sustainability goals

• Swedbank’s current Green Bond Framework is aligned to

the ICMA Green Bond Principles and eligibility criteria are

in line with market practice

• Analysis to map the Framework’s level of alignment to EU

Taxonomy is ongoing (*preliminary assessment in April)

• Pricing benefits from issuance (if any) are directly

channelled back to the businesses engaged in sustainable

financing to further promote lending

• Green Asset Register continues to grow at a good pace,

with the buffer exceeding our target of 20%

14

Outstanding Green Bonds

18.3

7

20.4

10

Green Asset Register Green bond proceeds

2020 2021

38.7

Green asset register and utilisation, SEKbn

Green asset buffer

17

ISIN Currency Issued volume Coupon Maturity

millions % year

XS1711933033 EUR 500 0.25 2022

XS1800143650 SEK 1 000 1.00 2023

XS1800142330 SEK 500 FRN 2023

XS2343563214 EUR 1 000 0.30 2027

*

*

Final terms

https://www.swedbank.com/investor-relations/debt-investors/green-bonds.html

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Green Asset Register

RenewableEnergy

EnergyEfficiency

Sustainable Management of Living Natural

ResourcesPollution Prevention

and Control

Clean Transportation

Impact indicatorWind

and Solar

Green

Buildings

Sustainable

Forestry

Waste

Management

Clean Public

Transport

Avoided emissions (tCO2e) 589 547 574 780 6 120 8 647

Energy generation (MWh) 2 333 500 1 831 000 502 500

Energy savings (MWh) 19 477 19 477

FSC/ PEFC certified forest area (ha) 26 740 26 740

Certified standing stock (m3) 3 344 000 3 344 000

Waste treated (t) 150 000 150 000

Passenger kilometers (pkm) 94 029 698 94 029 698

Green Bond Impact 2020

15

Avoided emissions

tCO2e/SEKm

Avoided emissions

tCO2e

Green Asset Register as per 31 Dec 2020: 18 344SEKm

• Three new asset categories were added to the Green Asset

Register in 2020: Sustainable Management of Living

Natural Resources, Pollution Prevention and Control, and


• The geographic representation of assets has grown to

include all four Swedbank home markets*, in addition to

Norway and Finland

Impact metrics 2020:

Energy efficiency

Renewable energy

Pollution prevention andcontrol

Sustainable managementof living natural resources

Clean transportation

6%

75%

3%1%

15%

* Sweden, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Green bond impact report 2020

https://internetbank.swedbank.se/ConditionsEarchive/download?bankid=1111&id=WEBDOC-PRODE78560381

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Green Asset Register

Renewable Energy

EnergyEfficiency

Sustainable Management of Living Natural

Resources

Pollution Prevention and Control


ProjectsWind

and Solar

Green

Buildings

Sustainable

Forestry

Waste

Management

Clean Public

Transport

Green Asset Register End 2020 18 344 2 730 13 632 563 1 154 265

Green Asset Register YTD 2021 38 733 2 566 34 096 628 1 166 277

---of which Mortgage Portfolio 18 401

Taxonomy alignment estimates Aligned Partially aligned Partially aligned To be defined Not aligned

Green Asset Register and the EU Taxonomy- Based on Swedbank’s preliminary internal assessment ( April, 2021)

Alignment to

technical

screening criteria

of EU Taxonomy

16

• In 2021 Swedbank included Swedish mortgages amounting to 18 401SEKm,

with energy performance certificates (EPC) level A and B

• Energy performance certificates (EPC) level A and B correspond to 7% of

Sweden’s national stock (Swedbank equivalent 7.5%)

• Taxonomy Technical screening criteria (TSC):

“For buildings built before 31 December 2020, the building has at least an Energy

Performance Certificate (EPC) class A. As an alternative, the building is within the top

15% of the national or regional building stock expressed as operational Primary Energy

Demand (PED) and demonstrated by adequate evidence, which at least compares the

performance of the relevant asset to the performance of the national or regional stock

built before 31 December 2020 and at least distinguishes between residential and non-

residential buildings”.

EPC: SEKm: Taxonomy assessment:

EPC A 2 323 EPC level A TSC aligned

EPC B 16 078 EPC level B TSC partially aligned

-- of which EPC post- Jan 2019 7 263Estimated to be aligned based on top 15% of

national stock (using PED)

-- of which EPC pre- Jan 2019 8 815Yet to be determined as energy performance

measured using the older methodology in Sweden

“Specific Energy”

Details on the mortgage portfolio inclusion

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Strong financial position to manage uncertainty

Q1 2021 17

• Solid private and SME customer

profile

• Low share of capital markets

related income

• Strong capital generation capacity

Earnings capacity(profit before impairments, SEKbn)

Balance sheet

• Liquidity coverage ratio, 154%

• Net stable funding ratio, 123%

• Liquidity reserve, SEK 646bn

– Of which SEK 496bn (77%) placed with

central banks

• Capital buffer of SEK 39bn to

CET1 capital requirement.

• Credit impairment ratio, bps20

-14

1 0 3 49 8

39

26

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

*Excluding administrative fine of SEK 4bn in Q1 2020

0

10

20

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* 2021**

** YTD Q1 2021 annualised

Q1

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79%

21%

84%

16%

81%

19%

84%

16%

66%

34%

79%

21%

SWEDEN

57%43%

63%

37%49%51%

57%43% 42%

58% 60%

40%

ESTONIA

65%

35%

78%

22%

66%

34%

72%

28%

45%55% 59%

41%

LATVIA

61%

39%

78%

22%

56%44%

73%

27%

49%51%63%

37%

LITHUANIA

Loans (private)* Loans (corporate)* Deposits (private) Deposits (corporate) Payments** Funds

* Excluding the Swedish National Debt Office and repurchase agreements ** BankGiro for Sweden, domestic payment transactions (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Q4 2020

= Swedbank

Market leading position in our home markets

18

This is

Swedbank

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Swedbank – continuously innovative

19

Digitally focused organisation

• Board of directors with tech industry

experience

• Head of Digital Banking and IT part of

Group executive management team

Adaptive IT-infrastructure & organisation

• Modular architecture refurbished into a

flexible core platform

• IT and business development integrated

Large retail customer base and scalable

products

• High digital readiness in home markets

• Leverage to improve customer experience,

sales and efficiency

99% digital

customer

interactions

Customer driven availability

• Broadening omni-channel capabilities

• Branches, telephone 24/7, mobile, desktop

and 3rd party platforms

Inn

ovative c

ultu

re

78% of

sales* are

completed

digitally

78%digitally

active

customers

80%digital

customer

satisfaction

* Agreements entered between customers and the bank

COLLABORATING

WITH FINTECHS“A digital bank

with physical

meeting

points”

AUTOMATED

CREDIT CARD

APPLICATION

DIGITAL

ONBOARDING FOR

CORPORATES IN

BALTICS

1996 2006 2009 2012 2013

ONLINE BANKING

IS INTRODUCED

NEXT GENERATION

INTERNET BANK

FIRST APP

LAUNCHED

2ND GENERATION

APPS INCLUDING

TABLETS

LAUNCH OF

YOUTH AND

CORPORATE APPS

1995

ONLINE EQUITY

TRADE

INTRODUCED

2011 2014

FIRST APIs FIRST PFM AND

AGGREGATION OF

TRANSACTIONS

2016 2017

FIRST THIRD PARTY

INTEGRATION

OPEN

BANKING SITE

LAUNCHED

2014

VIRTUAL

ASSISTANT ON .SE

VIRTUAL

ASSISTANT ON

MOBILE

2017 2018 2019

2020 2020 2020

DIGITAL

ONBOARDING

FOR PRIVATE

CLIENTS IN

BALTICS

NEW SERVICE

PORTAL FOR DIGITAL

MAILING AND

UPDATE OF KYC

INFORMATION

2019

PROACTIVE

RECOMMENDATIONS

IN APP

Q1 2021

LIVE CHAT WITH

ADVISORS VIA

INTERNETBANK AND APP

2021

DIGITAL PIN CODE

DISTRIBUTION ON SWEDISH

CHANNELS

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2. Quarterly financial update

Quarterly

financial

update

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Improved profitability in challenging times

TOTAL

EXPENSES

CREDIT

IMPAIRMENTS

KEY RATIOS

TOTAL

INCOME

21

SEK 0.2bn

SEK 11.4bn▪ Stable net interest income

▪ Stable net commission income

▪ Normalised NGL and stable other income

▪ Expenses in line with plan

▪ Strong asset quality

18.0% / 560bps0.06%0.44

C/Iratio

12.8%

ROE CET1capital ratio / buffer

CREDIT Impairment ratio

Q1 2020

154%

LCR

SEK 5.0bn

Quarterly

financial

update

* Excluding administrative fine of SEK 4bn

0

5

10

15

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021

Total income, SEKbn

0

2

4

6

Q1 2020* Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021

Total expenses, SEKbn

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021

Credit impairments, SEKm

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Group result

Income statement

SEKm Q1 21 Q4 20 ▲QoQ Q1 20 ▲YoY

Net interest income 6 541 6 567 -26 6 686 -145

Net commission income 3 360 3 376 -16 3 223 137

Net gains and losses 585 910 -325 -322 907

Other income 916 911 5 645 271

Total income 11 402 11 764 -362 10 232 1 170

Total expenses 4 974 5 586 -612 5 370 -396

Profit before impairments 6 428 6 178 250 4 862 1 566

Credit impairments 246 523 -277 2 151 -1 905

Tax 1 208 1 144 64 398 810

Net profit 4 975 4 510 465 2 313 2 662

Q1 2021 22

Ratios Q1 21 Q4 20 Q1 20

ROE, % 12.8 11.8 6.5

C/I ratio 0.44 0.47 0.52

CET1 capital ratio, % 18.0 17.5 16.1

Earnings per share, SEK 4.43 4.01 2.07 * Excluding administrative fine of SEK 4bn

*

*

• Improved profitability, RoE of 12.8%

– Core income lines were stable

– Normalised NGL offset by seasonally lower

expenses

• Strong asset quality with positive macro

outlook

• Cost income ratio 0.44

• Strong capitalisation - CET1 capital

buffer of around 560bps above

requirements

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Group result

Loan and deposit volumes

Q1 2021 23

Of which FX +7

*

*Excluding Group functions and other (Group Treasury)

Of which FX +7

+5 +43

Deposits, SEKbnLoans, SEKbn

5 6

-6

1 616 1 621

Q4 2020 Swedishmortgage

loans

Balticbanking

Corporateexcl. Baltic

banking

Q1 2021

16 271 131 1 174

Q4 2020* Private Corporate* Q1 2021*

SEKm

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Group result

Net interest income

Q1 2021 24

SEKm

3 000

• Stable NII

– Lower average loan volumes

– Excess liquidity placed with central banks

largely offset by lower funding cost

• FX (-23m) and day count effects (-57m)

• FY deposit guarantee fee estimated to

around SEK 550m

– Q1 net effect of SEK 78m excluding positive

adjustment for previous years of SEK 100m6 4216 607 6 553 6 408

6 6866 886 6 714 6 567 6 541

Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021

3 000

29

-27 -3 -25

6 567 6 541

Q4 2020 Volumes Margins Treasury Other Q1 2021

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Group result

Net commission income

Q1 2021 25

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021

Asset Management Corporate advisory Cards & Payments

• Strong Asset Management income from

positive stock market performance

– Q4 included performance fee of SEK 60m

• Cards & Payments seasonally lower and

impacted by further restrictions due to the

pandemic

– Q4 included non-recurring payment of SEK

130m to savings banks

• Brokerage & Corporate advisory included

SEK 40m market making fee in Q4

• Day count effect of approx. SEK -30m

SEKm

85

-5 -96

3 376 3 360

Q4 2020 Cards &Payments

AssetManagement

Corporateadvisory

Q1 2021

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Group result

Net gains and losses

Q1 2021 26

-322

1 398

669

910

585

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2020

SEKm

• Lower NGL as Q4 was boosted by positive

valuation effects, and favourable FX trading

• Good client trading activity continues

138 2

179

211

55

585

CVA/DVA Bondinventories

Shares Clienttrading

Other Total NGL

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Group result

Other income

Q1 2021 27

SEKm

911 916

• Higher income from associates offset by

lower net insurance and services to savings

banks

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021

Other income (excl. One-offs) Average for the period

381305

122 237

408 374645

867

975

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021

Other Associates Net insurance

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Group result

Expenses

Q1 2021 28

SEKm

• Expenses in line with plan

– Seasonally lower QoQ

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Q1 2019 Q1 2020* Q1 2021

Staff cost IT expenses Consultants Other

4 794 4 800 4 698

5 4164 896

57643 63

170

77

Q1 2020* Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021

5 370

4 843 4 761

5 586

4 973

AML investigations Underlying expenses

2 000

* Excluding administrative fine of SEK 4bn

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Group result

Common Equity Tier 1 capital (CET1)

Q1 2021 29

CET1 capital ratio

requirement

• Strong capitalisation

• CET1 capital buffer of around 560bps above

requirements – target of 100-300bps

• Remaining accrued dividend from 2019 &

2020 profits still deducted from CET1

• IRB model updates during 2021-2022

(higher REA)

• Swedish banking package

– P2G (Sep 2021)

SEKbn

16.1% 16.4% 16.8% 17.5% 18.0%

12.4%

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021

2.5 1.3 1.3116.4 121.5

Q4 2020 Profit IAS19 Other Q1 2021

+560bps

• REA increased by SEK 7.6bn to

SEK 694.6bn

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3. Asset quality

Quarterly

financial

update

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Group result

Credit impairments

Q1 2021 31

2 151

1 235

425523

246

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021

• Continued strong asset quality

• Exited exposures in Oil & Offshore, almost

fully provisioned for

• Conservative view on the back of Covid-19

development – increased provisions in Baltic

banking

SEKm

7

220

19

246

Swedishbanking

Balticbanking

LC&I Groupfunctions

Group

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Information class Q1 2021 32

Group result

IFRS 9 distribution

• Reduced credit impairments under IFRS9

• Counteracted by management adjustments

• Individual assessment, mainly oil-related

SEKm

Expert

portfolio

macro

adjustments

Individual

assessment

Macro-

economic

forecast Q4

Credit

impairments

Q1 2021

OtherRating and

stage

migrations

-200

283

194

138

-169

246

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Group result

Offshore exposure SEKbn

9.28.0

6.65.3 5.0

3.7

3.94.6

4.5

2.4

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021

Loans carrying amount Provisions

12.911.9

11.3

9.8

7.3

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3

Drilling

rigs

Oil

services

Supply

vessels

Floating

productions

1.22.6 2.5

0.8

• Gross loans, SEK 7.3bn

• Credit impairment provisions of

SEK 2.4bn

• Total stage 3 loans of SEK 3.6bn

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Major part of Swedbank’s loan portfolio insignificantly impacted by Covid-19

Q1 2021 34

* Most sectors include at least one sub sector with higher or lower risk compared to the classification of the main sector – which we illustrate in the right hand bar where we bundled together sub-sectors, regardless of the sector, with the same

risk classification (i.e. considerably, moderately, slightly or insignificantly impacted).

Loans carrying amount, SEKbn

Sub-sectors

▪ Considerably impacted sub-

sectors− Extraction & Processing of raw

materials

− Clothing

− Transportation, passenger

− Offshore (oil)

− Hotels

− Restaurants

− Recreation and entertainment

facilities

5621

273

1 268

Distribution by sub-sector sensitivity*

1%

4%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Other corporate lending

Professional services

Property management

Finance and insurance

Information and communication

Hotels and restaurants

Shipping and offshore

Transportation

Retail & wholesale

Construction

Public sector and utilities

Manufacturing

Agriculture, forestry, fishing

Private other

Tenant owner associations

Private mortgage

Insignificantly impacted Slightly impacted Moderately impacted Materially impacted

17%

78%

Distribution by sub-sector loan volume and share in stage2

4%

10%

11%

18%

11%

1%

21%

8%

4%

10%

50%

30%

21%

20%

13%

9%

© Swedbank

Public

Information classQ1 2021 35

Credit impairments provisions

648 557

-773 -639

-200

698

-698

886672

283

889

210

432

394

194

969150

-124

138

-84

197

-270

220

-169

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021

246

523

2 151

425

Macro adj: SEK -407m

Expert adj: SEK 1 852m*

Ind. provisions: SEK 2 119m

Distribution by quarter and type

Rating migrations: SEK 1 133m

Other SEK -106m1 235

*Due to FX-change

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7

2.02.3 2.3 2.3

2.6

5.9 6.0 5.7 5.0

2.7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021


1 503 1 491 1 4981 505 1 510

124 129 120108 109

13 14 13 11 8

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021


Distribution of loans by stages

Q1 2021 36

Credit impairment provisions, total, SEKbnTotal loans gross by stages, SEKbn

1 6241 6311 640 1 6271 634 8.18.98.7 6.09.3

• Provision ratio for stage 3 loans of 34%

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

4. Capital considerations

Capital

– fully

loaded

CRD IV

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Continued strong capital position, Q1 2021- Comfortable distance to loss absorption trigger

Q1 2021 38

Capital

• REA increased by SEK 7.6bn

• Remaining accrued dividend from 2019

& 2020 profits still deducted from CET1

• Countercyclical buffer 0%

• CET1 capital buffer of around 560bps

above requirements - target of 100-

300bps

Highlights

More regulatory changes to come during 2021

4.5

11

1.5 2

8

14.5

3

3

1

1

2.5

2.5

1.4

7 0.30.4 2

7

CET1 req. Actual CET1Q1

AT1 req. T2 req. Total capitalreq.

Actual Totalcapital Q1

Individual Pillar 2 Charge

Capital Conservation Buffer

Contracyclical Buffer (0.0%)

O-SII Buffer (new)

Systemic Risk Buffer

Minimi req.

Automatic MDA

Restrictions

12.4% 21.6%18.0% 16.5%

Buffer of ~ 560bps

1.8% 2.4%

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

4.5

1.5 2

8

111

0.30.4

1.7

3

3

1

1

2.5

2.5

1

1

CET1 req.* AT1 req. T2 req. Total capital req. Leverage ratioreq.**

Pillar 2G (Sep 2021)

Capital conservation buffer

Countercyclical buffer (0.0%)

O-SII buffer (Dec 2020)

Systemic risk buffer

Pillar 2R (Sep 2021)

Minimi req.

Upcoming capital regulatory changes

Q1 2021 39

13.0% 17.2%

Capital

Automatic MDA

Restrictions

• Swedish FSA banking package decided

– P2G – indicative level until Sep 2021 (SREP)

– P2R introduced in Sep 2021 (SREP)

replacing Individual Pillar2 charge

• Countercyclical buffer 0%

• Minimum leverage ratio requirement to

be fulfilled by Tier1 to apply by June 2021

– Additional indicative P2G requirement set by

SFSA to be fulfilled by CET1, apply by Sep

2021 (SREP)

• IRB overhaul, update of PD and LGD

models will increase REA gradually in

2021 & 2022

Highlights??%1.8% 2.4%

Leverage

ratio

June 2021

P2G + P2R

Sep 2021

* Indicative CET1 requirements from SFSA’s banking package proposal, 2020

P2R

Sep 2021

P2R

Sep 2021

~1

~11

** Indicative based on Q4, 2020 numbers

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

69

20

159

20

85 85

150

Recapitalisationamount

Senior debt >1year

MREL requirement Instruments tomeet MREL

Senior non-preferred Senior preferred > 1year Swedbank total capital

MREL needs in line with expectations

Q1 2021 40

* Based on Q1 2021 numbers

Capital

– MREL

• Requirements for 2021 set and published by the

Swedish National Debt office (NDO) on 16

December 2020

– Total MREL requirement: 6.22% Total liabilities +

Own funds (TLOF), from 23 December 2020

– Recapitalisation Amount (RCA): Minimum Pillar1+

Pillar2. The RCA is currently SEK 69bn

• Transition period until 1 Jan, 2024

– Already in compliance with current senior preferred

debt outstanding

– The NDO has prolonged the transition period to 1 Jan,

2024 when the RCA must be met with senior non-

preferred debt

– By the implementation of BRRD2 into Swedish law

during 2021 we expect the NDO to update current

requirements

255

105

Swedbank MREL requirement, SEKbn*

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

MREL cont.

Q1 2021 41

Senior unsecured debt maturity profile

SEKbn

• Focus on both preferred and non-

preferred senior debt

• New MREL policy expected in H2

2021 – crucial for assessing need

for senior non-preferred

• NPS buffer above requirement -

depending on balance sheet

growth and FX fluctuation

Capital

– MREL

Total NPS requirement

* % of Risk Exposure amount

78

0

20

40

60

80

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026-

Senior preferred

SEKbn

0

20

40

60

80

Recapitalisation amount

9.9%*

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Further regulatory changes expected

• Includes amendments to

the frameworks for

calculating credit risk,

CVA, market risk and

operational risk

• Introduction of an output

floor of 72.5% of the

RWA calculated by the

standardised approach

with a phase-in period

from 2023 to 2028

• EU legal implementation

proposal expected in Q2

2021

• Swedish law

implementing BRRD2

expected to apply from 1

July 2021

• New MREL policy

expected in H2 of 2021 –

crucial for assessing

need for senior non-

preferred

• New guidelines to be

fully phased in by end of

2021 according to EBA

decision

• Dialogue with SFSA

needed on impact on

Swedbank

Revisions to Basel IIICRR2 / CRD5 /

BRRD2New IRB Regulations

Capital

Q1 2021

• New capital requirements

model to comply with

CRD5, including new

Pillar 2 framework to be

introduced in conjunction

with SREP decision 2021:

decreases distance to

MDA

• SFSA to align

methodology to EBA

guidelines on IRRBB –

revised calculation

method in SREP 2021

Local (SFSA)

requirements

42

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

5. Liquidity and funding

Liquidity

and

funding

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

Q1 2021

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

Q1 2021

Core balance sheet structure

Q1 2021 44

LithuaniaLatvia

Other corporate

lending, Sweden &

other Nordic countries

Other private, Sweden

Swedish

mortgage loans

Senior non-preferred debt

Covered

bonds

Deposits

CET1

Assets LiabilitiesSEKbn SEKbn

Estonia

Liquidity

and

funding

▪ Simplified balance sheetSuppl. capital

Senior preferred debt

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Conservative funding position

Q1 2021 45

• LCR 154% (EU 2015/61)

• NSFR 123% (CRD2)

• Issued SEK 32bn of long-term

funding in Q1

Liquidity

and

funding

0

50

100

150

200

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Covered bonds Senior preferred Senior non-preferred Tier 2 AT1

SEKbn Issued, long-term debt SEKbn

0

50

100

150

200

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026-

Tier2 (call) AT1 (call)

Senior non-preferred Senior preferred

Covered bonds

~87bn

0

50

100

150

200

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026-

SEK EUR USD GBP Other

Maturity profile, by currency

More details on funding and liquidity in the Fact book, page 55-68

Maturity profile LT-funding

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

Coveredbonds

Seniorunsecured

SNP Structuredretail bonds

Short-termprogrammes

Deposits

Q4 2020 Q1 2021

SEKbn

Strong funding profile SEKbnOutstanding volumes

17

496

133

Liquidity reserve

Level 1 assets

of which cashand balanceswith centralbanks

Level 2 assets

Liquidity reserveSEKbn

646

https://www.swedbank.com/investor-relations/reports-and-presentations/interim-reports.html

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Private placements – active in senior unsecured debt

• Senior preferred / Senior non-preferred format

• Major / opportunistic currencies

• Bullet format, FRN or Fixed

• EUR 20m equivalent minimum size

• Open to tap existing bonds

• Listing is optional

• FRN’s – if needed issued with a “strike adjustment spread”*

• Program formats available:

– Senior unsecured debt (preferred/non-preferred): GMTN,

potentially USD 144a format

Q4 2020 46

*Spread added to the coupon to avoid negative coupon fixings. Bond issued above par to compensate for this. The above par value reflects the NPV of the adjusted

spread

Liquidity

and

funding

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Group liquidity reserve

Q1 2021 47

Liquidity

and

funding

Fact book, page 55 for currency distribution

1 Minimum reserve requirements held in Central Banks of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Bank of Finland are excluded from Liquid Assets

2 Adjusted value according to Article 9 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU 2015/61)

SEKm

Level 1 assets 628 856

Cash and balances with central banks 1 495 593

Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or MDBs and international organisations 94 338

Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities public sector entities 3 504

Extremely high quality covered bonds 35 421

Level 2 assets 16 914

Level 2A assets 9 286

Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks, municiapalities and PSEs

High quality covered bonds 9 283

Corporate debt securities (lowest rating AA-) 3

Level 2B assets 7 629

Asset backed securities

High quality covered bonds

Corporate debt securities (rated A+ to BBB-) 970

Shares (major stock index) 6 658

Total liquid assets (unadjusted market value) 645 770

LCR adjustments (haircuts) according to LCR DR 27 687

High Quality Liquid Assets 638 083

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Rating• On March 26, 2020 S&P downgraded Swedbank’s long-term

rating to A+ due to regulators finding anti-money laundering

(AML) deficiencies and regulatory misconduct between 2015

and the first quarter of 2019. The outlook is set to stable

reflecting the belief that the bank's solid franchise, profitability

and capital should shield it from the current worsening of

economic conditions and the outcome of other pending

investigations.

• On April 2, 2020 Moody’s downgraded Swedbank's long-term

rating to Aa3 following the conclusions from the investigations

into anti-money laundering that showed deficiencies in

Swedbank’s management of money laundering risks. The

outlook is set to stable reflecting the view that additional

financial penalties arising from the continued investigations are

unlikely to materially impact the bank’s creditworthiness.

• On April 3, 2020 Fitch Ratings downgraded Swedbank's Long-

Term rating to AA- driven by the confirmation of deficiencies in

anti-money laundering controls. The outlook is set to stable

reflecting expectations that the bank will progressively

strengthen its controls to effectively combat and prevent

money laundering and that Swedbank enters the economic

downturn from the coronavirus outbreak from a relative

position of strength at its rating level.

48Q1 2021

Credit ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch

Covered bonds Aaa AAA -

Senior preferred Aa3 A+ AA-

Senior non-preferred Baa1 A- A+

Tier 2 Baa2 BBB+ A-

Additional Tier 1 Ba1 BBB- BBB

Short-term P-1 A-1 F1+

Outlook Stable Stable Stable

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

6. Cover pool data

Swedbank is a labeled issuer of

the ECBC Covered Bond Label

Foundation

(www.coveredbondlabel.com )

http://www.coveredbondlabel.com/

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Cover pool data1

Q1 2021 50

Repayment structure 7

– Amortising 68%

– Interest only 32%

Average loan size SEK 634 696

Number of loans outstanding 1 611 192

Number of borrowers 1 075 543

Number of properties 728 239

Dynamic pool Yes



Foundation


Rating, S&P / Moody’s AAA / Aaa

Total pool size SEK 1022.6bn

Geographic distribution Sweden 100%

Current OC-level 103.8%

Weighted average seasoning 2 73 months

Average LTV 3, 4

– WA LTV on property level (Max LTV) 49%

Non-performing loans 5 None

Fixed /Floating interest loans 6

– Fixed 38.0%

– Floating 62.0%1 As per 31 Mar, 20212 Public sector loans not included3 Index valuation as per Dec, 20204 Maximum LTV: Residential 75%, Commercial 60%, Forest and Agriculture 70%5 Past due loans > 60 days are not eligible for the cover pool6 Fixed interest rate loans < 365 days7 Property level of cover pool


© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Cover pool data

Q1 2021 51



Foundation


Type of loans 31 Mar

(based on loan volume) 2021

Residentials 92.7

of w hich Single-family housing 58.1

of w hich Tenant ow ner rights 22.2

of w hich Tenant ow ner association 7.8

of w hich Multi-family housing 4.6

Public 0.4

Commercial 1.2

Forest & Agricultural 5.7

100.0%

Population Feb

(thousands) 2021

Sw eden 10 385

Stockholm, county 2 394

Västra Götaland, county (incl. Gothenburg) 1 735

Skåne, county (incl. Malmoe) 1 390

Geographical distribution, Sweden, per cent 31 Mar

(based on loan volume) 2021

North 6.9

Norrbotten county (BD) 1.4

Västerbotten county (AC) 2.4

Västernorrland county (Y) 1.8

Jämtland county (Z) 1.3

Middle (including Stockholm) 43.7

Dalarna county (W) 2.0

Gävleborg county (X) 2.2

Värmland county (S) 2.0

Örebro county (T) 2.4

Västmanland county (U) 2.3

Uppsala county ( C) 4.1

Södermanland county (D) 1.9

Stockholm county (including Stockholm) (AB) 26.8

South (including Göteborg and Malmö) 49.4

Västra götaland county (Including Göteborg) (O) 18.0

Östergötland county (E) 4.5

Jönköping county (F) 3.6

Halland county (N) 4.1

Kronoberg county (G) 2.2

Kalmar county (H) 2.9

Skåne county (including Malmö) (M) 12.0

Blekinge county (K) 1.4

Gotland county (I) 0.7

100.0


© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Cover pool loan-to-value distribution

• Weighted average LTV on property level 49%

Q1 2021 52



Foundation


LTV distribution per property1 LTV distribution by volume1, 2

1 Public loans of 0.4% of the cover pool are excluded as they are either guaranteed by a Swedish municipality or the government and have therefore no

LTV assigned to them. 2 LTV distribution as defined by the Association of Swedish Covered Bond Issuers (www.ascb.se)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

00-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-75

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

00-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-75


© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Cover pool loan type and loan-to-value distribution

Q1 2021 53



Foundation


WA LTV per property type1

1

1excluding public sector loans of 0.4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Single-familyhomes

Tenant ownerrights

(apartments)

Tenant ownerassociations

Multi-familyhousing

Commercial Forestry &Agricultural

Total all types

Percentage of the pool Average LTV per loan type


© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Strong resilience to house price changes

Q1 2021 54



Foundation


• Current OC-level of 103.8%

• 2% legal minimum requirement

• Can withstand a severe house price drop

and still be able to issue AAA-rated

covered bonds

Over-

colla

tera

lisation

House price drop

House price sensitivity of the cover pool

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% -50%

OC, Q121

OC, Q420

Min req. 2%


© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Overview of the Swedish covered bond legislation

55

The Covered Bond Act entered into force on July 1, 2004 and is over-sighted by the Swedish FSA. Its main characteristics are:

Dual recourse to the issuer and cover pool

Dynamic, regulated pool of assets, frequently monitored by the Swedish FSA via appointment of an

independent inspector

Regulated valuation of cover pool assets which remain on the balance sheet

The cover pool may consist of certain mortgage credits, public credits and supplemental assets. There is no requirement to segregate mortgage and public credits.

Maximum LTVs: Residential 75%, Agricultural 70%, Commercial 60%

Maximum 10% commercial loans and 20% supplemental assets in cover pool

Regular monitoring of the property values, revaluation of property prices in case of significant drop (generally interpreted as 15% drop)

The S.O. Act amended, effective as of 21 June 2016, requires that the nominal value of the cover pool shall, at all times, be at least two per cent. higher than the aggregate nominal value of the liabilities relating to the covered bonds..

Regional constraint on collateral assets (Mortgage - EEA, Public - OECD)

The cover pool value shall always exceed the aggregate value of claims (including derivatives)

A sound balance in terms of FX, interest rates and maturities must be achieved. It is deemed to exist when the present value of the cover pool at all times exceed the present value of liabilities (including derivatives), even on a stressed basis. Present value cover must hold even after 1% upward and downward shift in the yield curve and a 10% change in the currency

Non-performing assets in the cover pool which are more than 60 days overdue must be disregarded for the purposes of the matching tests

Holders of covered bonds and relevant derivative counterparties benefit from a priority claim over the cover pool should the institution be declared bankrupt and rank pari passu ahead of unsecured creditors and all other creditors of the institution in respect of assets in the cover pool

The registered assets in the cover pool, the covered bonds and any relevant derivative contracts are required to be maintained as a unit and kept segregated from other assets and liabilities of the bankruptcy estate of the institution. The administrators-in-bankruptcy are then required to procure the continued timely service of payments due under the covered bonds and any relevant derivative contracts

Loan-to-value ratios and other limitations

Matching requirements

Benefit of a priority right over the cover pool

Administration in event ofbankruptcy

The Covered Bond Act

Source: www.ascb.se

http://www.ascb.se/

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

7. The Swedish and Baltic economies

Swedish

and Baltic

macro

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Corona virus – the third wave is underway

57

Coronavirus, confirmed Cases – Nordics

Swedish

and Baltic

macro

Q1 2021

Coronavirus, confirmed Cases – Baltics

Extent of government restrictions to reduce the spread of infection Patients hospitalised due to coronavirus - Nordics

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

Daily cases per million inhabitants, 7-day ma

Finland Sweden Norway Denmark

Sources: WHO & Macrobond

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

Daily cases per million inhabitants, 7-day ma

Latvia Lithuania EstoniaSources: WHO & Macrobond

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21

Hospitalisation per million inhabitants

Finland Sweden Norway DenmarkSources: Sw edbank Research & Macrobond

0

20

40

60

80

100

Index

Germany Denmark FinlandFrance United Kingdom NorwaySweden United States

Sources: Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT)&MacroBond

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Sweden – The recovery is gearing up

58

• Kingdom of Sweden rated

Aaa/AAA/AAA

Broad-based decline in growth followed by rebound

Swedish

and Baltic

macro

Sources: Statistics Sweden & Swedbank Research1 Annual percentage growth in percent unless indicated otherwise.2 Seasonally adjusted and smoothed

Key economic indicators1, 2019-2022

Q1 2021

Labour market conditions stabilizing

-2.8

3.6 3.6

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Contribution to growth (p.p.) and GDP (yoy%)

Household consumption Public consumption Investments

Net-export Inventories Gdp growth

Sources: Sw edbank Research & Macrobond

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Employment, millions, sa , rhs Unemployment rate, %, trend

Redundancy notices, sa (Apr'20=1) Wage growth, yoy%


Most recent 2019 2020 2021F 2022F

Real GDP (calendar adjusted) -2.2 (Q4) 1.4 -3.1 3.5 3.6

CPI growth, average 1.7 (Mar) 1.8 0.5 1.4 1.3

CPIF growth, average 1.9 (Mar) 1.7 0.5 1.5 1.3

Unemployment rate (15-74), % of labor force 8.8 (Feb)2 6.8 8.3 8.5 7.6

Savings ratio (households),% of disp. income … 15.9 17.9 17.4 15.7

Real disposable income (households) … 3.1 -0.8 3.5 3.2

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Interest rates (%)

Mortgage lending rate (3m new loans) Government 10 year, yield

Repo rate STIBOR, 3m


The Swedish economy - market developments

Q1 2021 59

Household borrowing grows Interest rates remain low

Swedish

and Baltic

macroInflation picks up The krona weakens in 2021

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Headline inflation (CPI) and with fixed interest rate (CPIF)

CPI, mom% CPIF, yoy% CPI, yoy%


100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Krona (SEK), US dollar (USD), euro (EUR) and trade-weighted index (KIX)

SEK/EUR SEK/USD KIX index, rhs


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bank lending (annual change in %)

Households (housing) Non-Financial Corporations


© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Baltics – ready for lift-off

60

Ratings

• Republic of Estonia: A1/AA-/A+

• Republic of Latvia: A3/ A-/A-

• Republic of Lithuania: A3/ A-/A-

Key economic indicators1, 2019-2022

1 % growth rate unless indicated otherwise, Y/Y growth for the most recent data

Swedish

and Baltic

macro

Q1 2021

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Estonia

Change yoy %

3.0%

5.0%

-2.9%


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Latvia

Change yoy %

3.1%

5.5%

-3.6%


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Lithuania

Change yoy %

3.9%

4.9%

-0.8%


Most recent 2019 2020 2021F 2022F

Real GDP Estonia -1.2 (Q4) 5.0 -2.9 3.0 5.0

Latvia -1.5 (Q4) 2.1 -3.6 3.1 5.5

Lithuania -1.0 (Q4) 4.3 -0.8 3.9 4.9

CPI growth, average Estonia 1.1 (Mar) 2.3 -0.3 1.5 2.0

Latvia 0.3 (Mar) 2.8 0.2 1.8 3.0

Lithuania 1.6 (Mar) 2.7 1.2 2.3 3.3

Unemployment rate (15-74), Estonia 7.7 (Q3) 4.4 6.8 8.0 6.9

% of labor force Latvia 7.9 (Q4) 6.3 8.1 8.4 6.7

Lithuania 9.0 (Q4) 6.3 8.5 8.5 7.3

Real economic growth(Quarterly year-on-year change and annual growth projections)

© Swedbank

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Diverging sentiments in the Baltics

61

Economic sentimentConfidence indicators, sa, index represents deviations from long term average (=0)

Swedish

and Baltic

macro

Sources: Swedbank Research & Macrobond

Economic Sentiment Indicator, rhs Consumers Industry

Retail trade Construction Services

Q1 2021

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Mar-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jul-20 Feb-21

Estonia

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20


Latvia

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30


Lithuania

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Valueguard index & annual growth rates

Composite Flats Houses

Index

-10

0

10

20

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Composite Flats Houses

Annual rate (%)

Housing prices continue to rise

• Housing prices reach record levels in the first quarter of

2021

• Demand for single family homes strengthens during the

Corona crisis.

• In March monthly seasonally adjusted prices rose by

2.0%, apartments by 0.9% and single-family homes by

2.5%.

63

Swedish

housing

and

mortgage

market

1) Source: Valueguard (HOX index)

2) Source: Mäklarstatistik, monthly average transaction prices (central city area)

Trends and average house prices, March 20211)

Price developments flats and single family houses1)

Q1 2021

1 month 3 months 12 months SEK/sqm2)

Tenant owner

Sweden total 1.0% 4.8% 8.0% 44 920

Greater Stockholm 1.1% 5.2% 7.8% 65 017 (102 527)

Greater Gothenburg 0.8% 2.8% 5.5% 49 177 (67 263)

Greater Malmoe 1.2% 5.3% 12.3% 34 182 (38 280)

Sweden total 2.8% 9.0% 20.3% 4 060 000

Greater Stockholm 2.2% 8.4% 20.9% 7 088 000

Greater Gothenburg 2.5% 6.7% 18.7% 5 827 000

Greater Malmoe 2.2% 11.5% 23.2% 5 107 000

Sweden 2.1% 7.4% 15.5% …

Single-family homes

Total Housing Index

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Buoyant housing market despite Corona

• Strong housing price developments since the immediate negative impact from Corona

• Housing market transactions stronger than normal

• Amortisation requirement on hold at least until September

Q1 2021 64

Housing prices

Swedish

housing

and

mortgage

market

Housing market transactions

Sources: Swedbank Research & Valueguard

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21

Seasonally adjusted housing prices: Apr 2019 - Mar 2021(Monthly change in %)

Tenant-Owner Rights Single Family Houses Housing prices

Source: Valueguard

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Housing transactions

Average 2015-19 Last observationSource: Mäklarstatistik

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Household borrowing grows, while borrowing costs remain subdued• Mortgage lending rises

• Housing interest costs remain at low levels due to supressed interest rates

• Loan volume likely to continue to increase

65

Household interest expensesMortgage loan growth, housing prices and interest rate

Swedish

housing

and

mortgage

market

Q1 2021

160

180

200

220

240

260

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

index

Riksbank's policy rate Mortgage loans to households, yoy%Housing price index, HOX, rhs


percent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017


percent of disposable income

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Household fundamentals support the housing market

• Population growth slows, but lagging housing shortage remains

• The household debt ratio increased in 2020

• Balance sheets among households remain solid

Q1 2021 66

Strong household balance sheetsPopulation growth slows

Swedish

housing

and

mortgage

market

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Completed housing and population growth, no. of persons and housing

Completed Residential buildings Population growth, rhs


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Perc

ent

Share of disposable income

Currency&Deposits Financial assets Real assets

Insurance&Pensions Liabilities

Source: Statistics Sw eden

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Solid structural foundation for the housing and mortgage market

Swedbank’s underwriting criteria

– In the repayment ability calculation, the interest rate

used is the equivalence to the Mortgage company’s

5 year fixed interest rate + 3 percentage points,

with a minimum of at least 6 %.

– Amortisation rate requirement according to SFSA:• For LTV ≤ 70 %, then 1 % is used as rate.

• For LTV > 70 %, then 2 % is used as rate.

• For DTI > 450 %, then the amortisation rate is one

percentage more.

– For underwriting credits to tenant owner rights, the

tenant owner association’s financials are examined,

and based the interest rate sensitivity of the

association and price per square meter an add-on

to the tenants fee is applied in the affordability

calculation.

Q1 2021 67

• Full recourse (very limited debt forgiveness possibilities)

• No securitisation (on balance sheet), no sub-prime market, no 3rd

party origination

• Restricted buy-to-let market – limited speculation

• 65% home ownership

• Rental market is regulated

• Transparent credit information (credit information agency,

www.uc.se)

– Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment

track record etc.

• Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations

including stress test of higher interest rate and conservative cost of

living

• Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system

Swedish

housing

and

mortgage

market

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Swedbank has a low-risk real estate portfolio

• The portfolio grew by SEK 6bn in 2021 Q1 (2.0% annualised)

• Low-risk strategy with strict origination standards

• Prioritising low risk and price before volume growth

• Average LTV in the real estate portfolios in lower ranges

• 87% of loans in low risk residential properties segments

68

Property management

Swedbank Group real estate lending, SEK 1 285bn

Tenant Owner Associations

Private mortgage loans947

91

247

89%

4%2% 3% 2%

Sweden Estonia Latvia

Lithuania Other

Sweden dominate portfolio

2.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

0

20

40

60

80

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1

Growth, SEKbn Growth, %1)

Low RE loan growth in Q1

Swedbank

real estate

lending

1) Growth YTD, % in 2021 Q1 annualised Q1 2021

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Private mortgages – a low-risk portfolio

69

Swedbank

real estate

– Private

mortgage

Stable growth in home markets Sweden dominate portfolio

90%

4%2% 4%

Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania

3.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

0

20

40

60

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1

SE

Kbn

Sweden Estonia Latvia

Lithuania Growth, %

• The portfolio grew by SEK 8bn in 2021 Q1 (3.4% annualised)

• Low average LTV in the Private mortgage portfolio:

– Sweden 53%, Estonia 47%, Latvia 73%, Lithuania 54%

• Low historical losses: 0.01% on average last 10 years

1)

Private mortgage loans947


© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Tenant-Owner Associations (TOA) – decreasing volumes due to e.g. finalised projects

70

13%

29%

10%11%

37%

<50 000 inhabitants >50 000 inhabitantsMalmö region Gothenburg region

Stockholm region

-7.1%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1


1) Growth YTD, % in 2021 Q1 annualised

Swedbank

real estate

- TOA

Geographically diversified

• Low concentration risk due to geographical split, and low

average LTV at 33%

• During the last three years, more project are finalised than

started. This, combined with intense competition from peers has

affected the portfolio growth negatively in recent years

• Low historic losses: 0.00% on average 10 years

Finalised projects reduce portfolio

Tenant-Owner Associations91

Q1 2021

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

247

Property management – focus on well-known companies with solid finances

71

Property management

• Commercial property management SEK 106bn – mostly office properties with low vacancies in larger cities

– In addition, retail real estate properties and other commercial properties

• Residential property management SEK 76bn– low risk portfolio, supported by growing population, stable rent levels and low vacancy rates

• Industrial & Warehouse SEK 42bn– warehouse and logistic properties supported by growing e-commerce, low vacancy rates, and low new production

• Other property management SEK 23bn– substantial share of community properties

– currently heightened risk in lending to hotels and restaurants

106

76

42

Commercial

properties

Residential

properties

Industrial &

Warehouse

23Other

properties9%

17%

31%

43%

82%

5%

2%2%

9%

Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Other

-0.4%-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

-10

0

10

20

30

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q1


Swedbank

real estate

– Property

mgmt.

Vast majority of portfolio in Sweden


No growth in Q1

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Property management – focus on well-known companies with solid finances

72

Residential property management

Share of loan-to-value >75%

Average loan-to-value, %

Property

management

Non-residential property management

0.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

1) Some properties with mixed usage

55% 44% 39% 36% 52% 47%

• Low risk portfolio1), supported by;

− Growing population

− High demand, and low supply of new

production

− Stable rent levels

− Low vacancy rates

− Low interest rates

94.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8%

▪Sweden ▪Estonia ▪Latvia ▪Lithuania ▪Norway ▪Finland

Share of loan-to-value >75%

Average loan-to-value, %

1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4%

54% 54% 53% 43% 58% 47%

• Mixed portfolio1) comprising:

− Office properties

− Logistic and warehouse properties

− Industrial properties

− Community properties

− Retail real estate

− Hotel real estate

− Other non-residential properties

76.3% 6.9% 2.6% 3.4% 8.0% 2.6%

▪Sweden ▪Estonia ▪Latvia ▪Lithuania ▪Norway ▪Finland

SEK

76bn

SEK

171bn

Q1 2021

Property

Management

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Two hundred years of working with sustainability

74

1980 2003

First SRI mutual fund

launched – excluding

sectors deemed

unethical

First listed Nordic bank to

receive ISO 14001 certification

for its Environmental

Management System

1820

Swedbank’s first Group-

wide sustainability report

complying with GRI G4

2014 2015

Headquarters in

Stockholm received EU

Green Building

certification

Achieved target to

reduce CO2 emissions

by 50% from 2010

2013

Sustainability Report

integrated in the Annual

Report

Group-wide exclusion of

companies whose coal

revenues exceed 30% of

turnover

2016 2017

Inaugural Swedbank

Green Bond issued

Launched Global

Impact Fund

2018

Ensuring a secure

operating environment

✓ Proactive strategy to information

security

✓ Systematic approach to AML with

same governance and processes

in all our home markets

✓ Low losses related to operational

risks

Commitment to govern

with impact

✓ UN Principles for Responsible

Banking – Founding Signatory

✓ TCFD Supporter and committed to

Science Based Target initiative

✓ Committed to SDGs 4, 8, 12, 16

✓ Member of UNEPFI Energy

Efficiency Finance Platform

✓ Aiming to reduce CO2 emissions

by 60% 2019-2030

Help our customers to

make sustainable

decisions

✓ Green mortgages

✓ Unique SDG fund (Global Impact

Fund)

✓ Market leading Green Bond

Nordic bookrunner

✓ Developed indicators to assess

progress towards the SDGs in our

home markets

Our legacy – roots, values

& conduct

✓ Sweden’s first savings bank in

1820 combating poverty

✓ Increasing financial literacy in

society

✓ Supporting development of

financial infrastructure in our

home markets

✓ Inclusive bank

✓ Our core values: Open, Simple,

Caring

2014

Swedbank acquired a majority

stake in Hansabank in the

Baltics

1998

Swedbank is the first

savings bank

established in Sweden

1820

1996

Launched fund investing in

companies with industry

leading environmental focus

2019

Launched Green Loans

and Sustainability

Improvement Loans

Launched

Transition Funds

2019 2020

Launched ‘Paris

Aligned’ Funds

Group-wide exclusion

of companies whose

coal revenues exceed

5% of turnover

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Swedbank 2017 Green Bond Framework In accordance with Green Bond Principles

• Renewable energy

• Energy efficiency

• Clean transportationUse of Proceeds

• Sustainability Risk Assessment in credit process

• Project selection and Green Asset Application

• Green bond sustainability analysis and recommendation

• Eligible asset approval in Green Bond Committee

Green Asset Selection Process

• Green Asset Register reviewed annually

• Swedbank targets a 20% buffer in the asset pool to accommodate redemptions or amortisation

• Tracking of green bond proceeds

Management of Proceeds

• Annual reporting on the use of proceeds and impact

• Reporting is externally verified to limited assurance by PWCReporting

External Review

75

• Pollution prevention and control

• Sustainable management of living natural resources

• DNV provided an external review on the Green Bond Framework, to confirm its alignment with ICMA Green

Bond Principles (GBP)

https://online.swedbank.se/ConditionsEarchive/download?bankid=1111&id=WEBDOC-PPE1341356

https://online.swedbank.se/ConditionsEarchive/download?bankid=1111&id=WEBDOC-PPE1341330

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

IFRS9 scenarios – Q1 2021 (March)

Q1 2021 76

Asset

quality

2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 20231) 2021 2022 2023

Sweden

GDP (% annual growth) 3.9 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.6 2.3 -5.2 0.7 4.3

Unemployment (%)2) 8.5 7.6 7.2 8.7 7.8 7.4 10.4 12.1 11.2

House prices (% annual change) 8.9 6.4 5.7 7.6 5.0 4.6 0.8 0.5 1.6

Stibor 3m (%) 0.03 0.21 0.40 -0.05 0.01 0.10 -0.29 -0.62 -0.57

Estonia


Unemployment (%) 7.8 6.6 6.0 8.1 6.9 6.4 12.0 11.8 10.4

House prices (% annual change) 8.7 9.5 5.4 7.0 7.9 5.0 -2.7 -0.2 4.1

Latvia


Unemployment (%) 7.8 6.2 5.7 8.1 6.6 6.0 12.1 12.5 11.1


Lithuania


Unemployment (%) 7.6 6.6 5.9 7.9 6.9 6.2 12.1 12.3 10.8


Global indicators

US GDP (% annual) 5.1 3.9 2.0 4.0 3.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 2.1

EU GDP (% annual) 4.9 4.2 2.1 4.1 4.1 2.1 -1.6 3.8 3.0

Brent Crude Oil (USD/Barrel) 62.3 62.5 62.3 54.0 52.0 51.1 36.8 39.6 43.1

Euribor 6m (%) -0.25 0.33 1.04 -0.50 -0.44 -0.21 -0.75 -0.80 -0.73

Positive scenario Baseline scenario Negative scenario

1) The baseline scenario for 2021 and 2022 are based on the published Swedbank Economic Outlook. The baseline scenario variables for 2023 are model-based extrapolations.

2) Unemployment rate, 16-64 years

Scenario was updated as per 20 January, 2021.

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

IFRS 9 – main characteristics of the different loan stages

Q1 2021 77

Sta

ge

1 lo

an

s

Initial recognition, or no

significant increase of

credit risk

Impairment amounting to

12-month expected credit

losses

1-29 days past due

Sta

ge

2 lo

an

s

Significant increase in

credit risk

Watchlist

30-89 days past due

Sta

ge

3 lo

an

s

Evidence of impairment

90 days past due


lifetime expected credit

losses


lifetime expected credit

losses

Probability of default = 1

Asset

quality

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

IFRS 9 – Distribution of loans

Q1 2021 78

Sta

ge

1 lo

an

s

Sta

ge

2 lo

an

s

Sta

ge

3 lo

an

s

Asset

quality

0.5%

44.3%

Credit impairment provisions distribution, % (total, SEK 5 995m)

Loans to the public, gross, distribution, % (total, SEK 1 627bn)

12.1%

92.8%

43.6%

6.7%

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Funding programmes

Q1 2021 79

Swedbank AB Swedbank Mortgage AB

** Combined limit for unsecured- and covered bonds

*** Limited by cover pool size

100% owned

Liquidity

and

funding

Program Limit

Long Term

Global MTN USD 40bn

USD Senior (144a / Reg.S) USD 15bn

AUD Senior** AUD 10bn

NSV (stand alone doc.)

Short Term

Domestic CP SEK 80bn

European CP/CD EUR 10bn

US CP USD 20bn

Yankee CD USD 20bn

Finnish CD EUR 4bn

Program Limit

Long Term

Domestic Benchmark CB Unlimited***

EMTN CB EUR 25bn

Norwegian Benchmark CB Unlimited***

AUD Covered bonds** AUD 10bn

Registered CB (stand alone doc.)

Short Term

Domestic CP SEK 50bn

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Benchmark transactions, 2018 – 2021

May 2021 80

Liquidity

and

funding

• The table excludes volumes

issued on tap in the Swedish

domestic covered bond market*

* https://www.swedbank.com/investor-

relations/debt-investor/funding/covered-

bonds/

ISIN Product Tenor Currency Amount, mn Type Spread Value date Maturity date

XS1778322351 CB 5.5Y EUR 1 000 Fixed MS-10 February 23, 2018 August 23, 2023

XS1800142330 SU Green 5Y SEK 500 FRN 3mStib+47 March 29, 2018 March 29, 2023

XS1800143650 SU Green 5Y SEK 1 500 Fixed MS+47 March 29, 2018 March 29, 2023

XS1844104437 SU 4.5Y GBP 400 Fixed G+80 June 28, 2018 December 28, 2022

XS1870225338 SU 5Y EUR 500 Fixed MS+18 Aug 29, 2018 August 29, 2023

XS1880928459 T2 10NC5 EUR 500 Fixed MS+128 September 18, 2018 September 18, 2028

XS1946788194 CB 7Y EUR 1 000 Fixed MS+13 February 5, 2019 February 5, 2026

XS2002504194 CB 6Y EUR 1 250 Fixed MS+2 May 28, 2019 May 28, 2025

XS2046625765 AT1 Perp. NC5 USD 500 Fixed 5.625 Aug 29, 2019 (call) Sep 17, 2024

XS2063261155 SNP 5Y EUR 750 Fixed MS+70 October 9, 2019 October 9, 2024

XS2167002521 SU 5Y EUR 1 000 Fixed MS+98 May 5, 2020 May 5, 2025

XS2182121405 SU 144a 3Y USD 1 000 Fixed T+112.5 June 2, 2020 June 2, 2023

XS2198236734 SU 3Y JPY 10 300 Fixed YOS+35 July 6, 2020 July 6, 2023

XS2198237039 SU 5Y JPY 10 700 Fixed YOS+40 July 6, 2020 July 4, 2025

XS2237318485 SU 144a 3Y USD 1 000 Fixed T+45 September 25, 2020 September 25, 2023

XS2282210231 SNP 7Y EUR 750 Fixed MS+63 January 12, 2021 January 12, 2028

XS2317119969 SU 144a 3Y USD 750 Fixed T+55 March 17, 2021 March 17, 2024

XS2343563214 SNP Green 6NC5 EUR 1 000 Fixed MS+57 May 20, 2021 May 20, 2027

© Swedbank

Public

Information class

Swedbank – contacts and financial calendar

81

Annie Ho Markus Sandgren Henrik Asplund

Head of Investor Relations Investor Relations Officer, Equity Investor Relations Officer, Equity

Mobile: +46 703 43 78 15 Mobile: +46 727 31 62 84 Mobile: +46 704 33 60 40

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Peter Stenborn Magnus Alvesson Karolina Skog

Investor Relations Officer, Debt Investor Relations Officer, Debt and Rating Investor Relations Officer, ESG

Mobile: +46 706 76 60 92 Mobile: +46 706 10 33 41 Mobile: +46 702 25 05 89


Gregori Karamouzis Ulf Jakobsson Kerstin Ahlqvist

Head of Group Treasury Head of Funding Head of long-term Funding

Mobile: +46 727 40 63 38 Tel: +46 8 700 90 61 Tel: +46 8 700 98 90


Q2 Interim report, 2021 16 Jul 2021

Q3 Interim report, 2021 21 Oct 2021

Q4 Interim report, 2021 2 Feb 2022

Q1 Interim report, 2022 28 Apr 2022

Q2 Interim report, 2022 19 Jul 2022

[email protected]

www.swedbank.com/investor-relations/debt-investor

Swedbank AB (publ) Landsvägen 40,

SE-105 34 Stockholm, Sweden Sundbyberg

Contact Investor Relations:

Financial calendar

Postal address: Visitors: Group Treasury

Investor Relations

mailto:[email protected]









http://www.swedbank.com/investor-relations/debt-investor

Investor presentation Q1 2021 - Swedbank

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