Investor Presentation - Northland Power - Homenorthlandpower.com/cmsAssets/docs/pdfs/Investor...
Transcript of Investor Presentation - Northland Power - Homenorthlandpower.com/cmsAssets/docs/pdfs/Investor...
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Investor PresentationOctober 2015
NPI.TO
Executing on Growth
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Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer
This written and accompanying oral presentation contains certain forward-looking statements which are provided for the purpose of presenting
information about management’s current expectations and plans. Readers are cautioned that such statements may not be appropriate for other
purposes. Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or
include words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “plans”, “believes”, “estimates”, “intends”, “targets”, “projects”, “forecasts” or negative versions
thereof and other similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “would” and “could”.
These statements may include, without limitation, statements regarding future adjusted EBITDA or adjusted EBITDA, cash flows and dividend
payments, the construction, completion, attainment of commercial operations, cost and output of development projects, plans for raising
capital, and the future operations, business, financial condition, financial results, priorities, ongoing objectives, strategies and outlook of
Northland and its subsidiaries. This information is based upon certain material factors or assumptions that were applied in developing the
forward-looking statements, including the design specifications of development projects, the provisions of contracts to which Northland or a
subsidiary is a party, management’s current plans, its perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as
well as other factors that are believed to be appropriate in the circumstances.
Although these forward-looking statements are based upon management’s current reasonable expectations and assumptions, they are subject
to numerous risks and uncertainties. Some of the factors that could cause results or events to differ from current expectations include, but are
not limited to, construction risks, counterparty risks, operational risks, the variability of revenues from generating facilities powered by
intermittent renewable resources and the other factors described in the “Risks and Uncertainties” section of Northland’s 2014 Annual Report
and 2014 Annual Information Form, which are both filed electronically at www.sedar.com and Northland’s website www.northlandpower.ca.
Northland’s actual results could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no
assurances can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur. The forward-looking
statements contained in this presentation are based on assumptions that were considered reasonable at time of delivery. Other than as
specifically required by law, Northland undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances
after such date or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, whether as a result of new information, future events or results, or
otherwise.
All figures are presented in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated.
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Northland Overview
Canadian-based Global Power Producer in business since 1987
Full lifecycle developers, owners, and operators of our facilities
1,332 MW* in operation (thermal, wind, and solar facilities) 1,042 MW (698 MW* net) under construction
* Represents Northland’s economic interest
Stability Growth Commitment
Well-diversified geographically and by technologies
Generate long-term stable cash flows
98% of revenues from long-term power contracts
Developing thermal, wind, and solar projects in North America, Europe, Mexico, and Latin America
Management has a vested interest through a 35% ownership interest
Northland maintains an annual dividend of $1.08
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Diversification by Geography and Technology
1 Kirkland Lake 101 MW*
2 Iroquois Falls 120 MW
3 Kingston 110 MW
4 Kavelstorf 7 MW
5 EckolstIädt 15 MW
6 Jardin d’Éole 128 MW
7 Thorold 265 MW
8 Mont Louis 100 MW
9 Spy Hill 86 MW
10 Roof-top solar 1 MW*
11 North Battleford 260 MW
12 Ground-Mount Solar 130 MW**
13 McLean’s Mountain 30 MW*
14 Grand Bend 50 MW*
15 Gemini 360 MW*
16 Nordsee One 282 MW*
*Represents Northland’s economic interest**Ground-mount solar: 120 MW in operations and 10 MW under construction.
Under construction Thermal
Biomass
Wind
Solar
In operation
12
34
5
6
7
15
8
9
11
10
1213
14
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Development andconstruction value
Operations cashflow to create value to service dividends
Initial risk
Greatest exposure
Diminishing risk
origination
OPERATIONSIN DEVELOPMENT ADVANCEDDEVELOPMENT
UNDERCONSTRUCTION
feasibilityconfirmed
signedPPA
financialclose
commercial operations date
Long Term Focus Delivers Value
Northland’s full life cycle commitment Captures development profits and provides stable cash flows over the life of facilities
to service the dividend
Preferred by power off-takers and lenders
Ensures quality projects are constructed to achieve performance and reliability
Ris
k/R
ewar
d
Stage
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Strong and Growing Financial Results
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2012 2013 2014 2015F
Adjusted EBITDA
CAGR:29%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2012 2013 2014 2015F
Revenues
CAGR:28%
Mill
ion
s o
f $
Mill
ion
s o
f $
Prior Growth Initiatives Have Shown ResultsExpected to generate over $380 million of Adjusted EBITDA in 2015
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Development – Our Pipeline
Development Pipeline Advanced
Development
Operating Assets*
1,332MW
> 2,200 MW
Construction*
698MW
Power contracts in hand
Finalizing supply agreements
Financing
Evaluate and focuson opportunities
that meet our investment criteria
Ensure projects are delivered on time,
and on budget
Operations and maintenance
Thermal 943 MW*Wind 280 MW*Solar 109 MW*
L o w e s t
* Represents Northland’s economic interest
HighestD E G R E E O F P R O J E C T C E R T A I N T Y
2015 Focus
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Focus on Executing Construction Projects
Offshore Wind EuropeProject Costs: Over €4 billion
Onshore Canada RenewablesProject Costs:
Over $400 million
Gemini600 MW offshore wind farm
COD: 201760% interest
Nordsee One332 MW offshore wind farm
COD: End of 201785% interest
Grand Bend100 MW onshore wind farm
COD: 201650% interest
Ground Mounted Solar1 x 10 MW solar farm
COD: 201562.5% interest
Management focused on executing 1,042 MW of projects currently under construction.
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Offshore Wind Projects – Construction
Gemini~85 kilometers
from shore
Two wind parks 75 turbines each
Nordsee One~40 kilometers from shore
54 turbines
Project Component Gemini Nordsee One
Cable Manufacturing Installation
100% 90% +
Started 2016
Turbine Foundations (Monopiles) Manufacturing Installation
100% 80% +
Started 2016/2017
Offshore Substation Manufacturing Installation
100% 100%
Started 2016
Turbines Manufacturing Installation
Started 2016/2017
To be started 2017
COD 2017 2017
60 kilometers apart
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Gemini – Project Overview
Gemini
Location North Sea, Netherlands
Capacity 600 MW (2 sites x 300 MW)
Capital Cost €2.8 billion
Northland interest 60% (360 MW)
Power contract Fixed price; 15-year contract with the Dutch government
Operations & maintenance Siemens (15 years)
Partners Siemens (20%), Van Oord (10%), HVC (10%)
COD 2017
Additional facts Will be largest wind farm in the North Sea and second largest offshore wind farm in the world.
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Gemini – Project Structure
Two party EPC contracting strategy
Clear contracting strategy that minimizes interface risk
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∅130m
Statue of Liberty (93 m)
Turb
ine
hei
ght
incl
ud
ing
fou
nd
atio
n (
22
5m
, 68
sto
ry b
uild
ing)
1
Gemini – Turbines
Airbus 380 Length of plane (73m)Wingspan (80m) Length of blade (63 m)
Over twice as long as a new TTC streetcar
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Gemini – Monopile Foundations
Installation of 1st Monopile on July 1, 2015
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Gemini – Offshore Substation Jackets
Installation of both jackets in August
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Gemini – Offshore substation installed on jacket
See appendix for more pictures
Installation of offshore substation on jacket
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Nordsee One – Project Overview
Nordsee One
Location North Sea, Germany
Capacity 332 MW
Capital Cost €1.2 billion
Northland interest 85% (282 MW)
Power contract A fixed price Feed-in-tariff subsidy for 10 years.
Operations & maintenance
Senvion (10 years)
Partners RWE Innogy (15%)
COD 2017
Additional facts Rights to develop two additional projects (Nordsee Two & Three) over the next decade.
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Nordsee One – Project Structure
The grid connection will be already built and Nordsee interfaces with the Transmission System Operator – TenneT – at the substation
Turbine Supply &
InstallationSubstation &
Installation
Offshore Converter
Station (TenneT)Onshore
Substation
Foundation
Supply
Cable Supply &
InstallationExport Cables
Export Cables
Nordsee I Transmission System Operator
Foundation
Installation
Five experienced contractors with specialized expertise, with buffers between contracts
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Grand Bend Wind Project
Onshore Wind Project
Location Southern Ontario
Capacity 100 MW
Capital Cost $384 million
Northlandinterest
50/50 partnership with First Nations
Powercontract
20 years (Feed-In-Tariff)
COD 2016
ConstructionProgress
- Foundation/excavation work
- Directional drilling, trenching, cable installation
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Offshore Wind61%
Solar8%
Thermal18%
Original NUGs
Onshore Wind7%
0000000000
2015
Adjusted EBITDA Diversification
2018
*The above charts are illustrative of managements objectives. They are based upon Northland’s operating facilities continuing to perform in a manner consistent with operations in 2015, with additions to Adjusted EBITDA from projects under construction and other adjustments resulting from power contract renewals primarily in Ontario all as described in our MD&A and 2014 AIF. The illustrations do not constitute a financial forecast, projection or guidance and are based upon assumptions that are subject to change.**Original NUGs refers to the Cochrane, Kirkland Lake, Kingston & Iroquois Falls power generating facilities.
Solar15%
Thermal41%
Original NUGs31%
Onshore Wind13%
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Development Focus
Larger projects
Target specific markets
Contracted power
Utilize preferred
technologies
Appropriate project return
thresholdsStable High-Quality
Projects with Attractive Returns
• Canada • Latin America• Europe
• Natural gas• Wind• Large solar
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pay
ou
t R
atio
Payout Ratio
Nordsee One equity raise
Payout Ratio Headroom on the Way
Northland undertakes major capital programs that elevates its short-term payout ratio
Last cycle included North Battleford, Spy Hill, and Ground-mounted Solar (2009-2013)
As Gemini and Nordsee One are constructed, the payout ratio will be elevated again by design until construction is completed in 2017
Both offshore wind projects reaching commercial operations will provide significant support to the long-term stability and future of Northland
This chart was compiled by management for illustrative purposes based on current financing expectations that are subject to change. The illustrations do not constitute a financial forecast, projection or guidance and are based upon assumptions that are subject to change
Gemini equity raise
100%
Normal payout ratio level prior to servicing dividends
for growth projects
600 MW Build-Out Program Off-shore Wind Build-Out
Cash Inflow from Build-Out Programs
North Battleford & Ground-Mount Solar achieve COD
100% Payout Ratio
Project Nordsee One and Gemini achieve COD
Headroom
Payout Ratio Headroom
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Stability and Growth: The track record and ability to deliver high quality results and reliable returns
Long-term focus: Delivering value for shareholders now and into the future by seizing opportunities that create attractive returns and sustainable growth
Commitment: Management has a vested interest through a 35% ownership interest
Summary
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Appendix
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Reporting of Non-IFRS Financial MeasuresThis investor presentation includes references to Northland’s adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, measures not prescribed by International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, as presented, may not be comparable to other similarly-titled measures presented by other publicly-traded companies, as these measures do not have a standardized meaning under IFRS. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as alternatives to net income, cash flow from operating activities or other measures of financial performance calculated in accordance with IFRS. These measures are also not necessarily indicative of operating income or cash flows from operating activities as determined under IFRS. Rather, these measures are provided to complement IFRS measures in the analysis of Northland’s results of operations, and are used by management to evaluate the performance of the company for internal assessmentpurposes. Management believes that adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow are widely-accepted financial indicators used by investors to assess the performance of a company. These measures provide investors with additional information to assist them in understanding these critical components of the company’s financial performance, including its ability to generate cash through its current operations. These measures have been applied consistently for all periods presented in this document.
Adjusted EBITDAAdjusted EBITDA provides investors with an indication of Northland’s capacity to generate income from operations and investments before taking into account management’s financing decisions and the costs of consuming tangible and intangible capital assets, which vary according to asset type and management’s estimate of their useful lives.Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as income (loss) before income taxes adjusted for depreciation of property, plant and equipment, amortization of contracts and other intangible assets, net finance costs, Gemini subordinated debt earned by Northland, fair value losses (gains) on derivative contracts, fair value losses (gains) on convertible shares, unrealized foreign exchange losses (gains), gain on the sale of chipping facility, write-down of Panda-Brandywine investment, elimination of non-controlling interests and finance lease and equity accounting.
Free cash flowFree cash flow is calculated as cash flow provided by operating activities adjusted for net change in non-cash working capital balances, capital expenditures, interest paid, scheduled principal repayments on term loans, funds set aside for scheduled principal repayments and for asset purchases, restricted cash (funding) for major maintenance, write-off of deferred development costs, consolidation of managed facilities, income from equity accounted investments, proceeds from sale of assets, corporate credit facility renewal costs, and preferred share dividends. This measure, along with cash flow provided by operating activities, is considered to be a key indicator for investors to understand Northland’s ability to generate cash flow from its current operations.
Readers should refer to our MD&As accompanying our financial statements for an explanation of adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, and for a reconciliation of Northland’s reported adjusted EBITDA to its consolidated income (loss) before taxes and a reconciliation of Northland’s free cash flow to its cash provided by operating activities. These are filed from time to time on our company’s website www.northlandpower.ca.
APPENDIX23
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240 5 10 15 20 25
North Battleford**
Ground Mounted Solar**
Jardin
Germany
Mt Louis
Kirkland*
Cochrane*
Spy Hill
Thorold
Kingston
Iroquois Falls
Extension options**
Weighted average 13.1 years^ (without extension options**)
Remaining PPA Term for Each Operating Facility
*Represents Northland’s economic interest in the facility** Facilities with dashed bar graph represent option to extend the power contract for additional period^The weighted average PPA life is weighted by respective MW capacity. The thickness of each bar represents each facilities respective overall contribution to 2018 forecasted Adjusted EBITDA
Producing and Maintaining Stable Cash Flows – Long-term Focus
Weighted average 14.5 years**(with extension options**)
Iroquois Falls
Kingston
Thorold
Spy Hill
Kirkland Lake*
Mont Louis
GermanyJardin
Ground-Mount Solar
North Battleford
McLean’s Mtn
Grand Bend
Gemini
Nordsee
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Operating Facilities
* Facilities have option to extend power contracts. ** Northland has an effective 77% residual economic interest *** German electricity production is purchased by local power utilities at predetermined prices as required by German legislation^ SaskPower effectively assumes all natural gas-price risk under the long-term PPA
APPENDIX
Project Location Size Ownership Technology PPA Term Gas Term
Thorold ON, CA 265 MW 100% Natural gas cogeneration 2030 2030
Kingston ON, CA 110 MW 100% Natural gas combined cycle 2017* 2017
Iroquois Falls ON, CA 120 MW 100% Natural gas cogeneration 2021* 2021
Spy Hill SK, CA 86 MW 100% Natural gas peaking plant 2036 n/a^
Kirkland Lake ON, CA 132 MW 68%**Biomass and natural gas
combined cycle and peaking2030 2030
Mont Louis QC, CA 100 MW 100% Wind 2031 n/a
Jardin d’Éole QC, CA 128 MW 100% Wind 2029 n/a
Kavelstorf and Eckolstadt Germany 22 MW 100% Wind n/a*** n/a
Roof-top Solar ON, CA 2 MW 75% Solar 2031 n/a
North Battleford SK, CA 260 MW 100% Natural gas combined cycle 2033 n/a^
Ground-Mount Solar (Sites #1-12)
ON, CA 120 MW100% (90 MW)62.5% (30 MW)
Solar2033-2035
n/a
McLean’s Mountain ON, CA 60 MW 50% Wind 2034 n/a
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Construction & Development Projects
Project Location Size Ownership Technology Expected CODPPA
TermExpected Capital
Cost
Ground-Mount Solar(Site #13)
ON, CA 10 MW 62.5% Solar 2015 20 years Under review
Gemini Netherlands 600 MW 60% Offshore wind 2017 15 years €2.8 billion*
Nordsee One Germany 332 MW 85% Offshore wind 2017 ~10 years €1.2 billion*
Grand Bend ON, CA 100 MW 50% Wind 2016 20 years $384 million*
Under Construction
*Represents full cost of the project (100%)
APPENDIX
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FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Recent Share Price (TSX: NPI) $17.26
Shares (Common + Class A) 169 million
Institutional Ownership ~29%
Management Ownership ~35%
Annual Dividend $1.08
Annual Dividend Yield 6.3%
Total Debt, Net of Cash $3,549 million
Convertible Debentures (NPI.DB.B, NPI.DB.C) $243 million
Preferred Shares (NPI.PR.A, NPI.PR.B, NPI.PR.C) $261 million
Market Capitalization (Common + Class A) $2,924 million
Enterprise Value $7,139 million
Credit Rating (S&P)BBB Stable
Outlook
Financial Summary
APPENDIX
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Gemini – Monopile Foundations
150 Monopiles
Weight: 670 – 916tGEMINI
Length: 59 – 73m
Diameter: 5.5 – 7.0m
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Gemini – Monopile Foundations
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Gemini – Transition Pieces
150 Transition Pieces
Weight: ca 190t
Length: 21m
Diameter: 5.5m
GEMINI
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Gemini – Transition Pieces at port
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Gemini – Installation of Transition Piece
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Gemini – Cable Installation
Cable-laying – June 2015
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Gemini – Cable Installation near shore
Cable burial equipment
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Gemini –Installation of Offshore Substation Jackets
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Gemini – Offshore Substation
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Gemini – Offshore substations leaving port
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Gemini –Installation of offshore substation on jacket
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Adam BeaumontDirector of Finance
647.288.1929
Barb BoklaManager, Investor Relations
647.288.1438
Investor Relations Contacts