INVESTOR PRESENTATION...26,0 50,7 40,3 56,3 49,2 47,5 53,4 52,6 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan-16 Mar-16...
Transcript of INVESTOR PRESENTATION...26,0 50,7 40,3 56,3 49,2 47,5 53,4 52,6 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan-16 Mar-16...
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
01REFINING INDUSTRY
02COMPANY OVERVIEW
03KEY FINANCIALS
04INVESTMENTS
CONTENTS
01 Refining Industry
26,0
50,7
40,3
56,3
49,2
47,5
53,4
52,6
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17
PROS
OPEC & Non OPEC Supply Cut
Healthy PMI data in US, Europe and China
Expectation of high global GDP
Protests in Venezuela
Inventory levels
Brent Crude Oil Prices ($/bbl)
CONS
Increase in number of rigs & production in US
Concerns about the impact of OPEC & Non
OPEC production cuts
Supply is still in line with demand, inventory
drawbacks has not stabilised yet
Increase in Libya, Brazil, Nigeria & Canada prod.
High crude exports of OPEC
4
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan North America Europe
810 640
160 195 52-255
-543 -486
334
150
340 135
-145
-109 -266
160
250
18184
180
-240
65
-421
530
526
302
-775
-546
520
400
120
390
-140
305
-352
270
510
198
-443
63
-189
244
300 417
150
40
-130
364
-57
70
156
-220
76
-143
105
-268
Th
ou
san
ds
2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016
Refinery Capacity Change
5
Tho
usa
nd
Bar
rels
/Day
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1.678 1.790
1.041
1.685
407
1.335
679
1.082 1.080
Source: Tüpraş, Reuters, Reports
Gross Capacity Additions
Turkish Economy Strengths
7980
8181
82
76
78
80
82
84
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population (mn)
0-40 yrs >65%
9,28,8
2,1
4,2
3,0
4,0
2,93,5
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017ACT
GDP Forecast (Million USD)
127
134 176
213
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2015 2020 2030
Car ownership per thousand people
67%
6Source: EMRA, TSI
1.4% growth in last 5 yrs
2002-2014 4.9%2010-2014 5.4%
22
23
24
25
26
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Diesel Consumption 3.5%
annual
growth8.7% average growth in last 5 yrs
2,5
Competitive Advantages of Tüpraş
7
Added Value
Created by Tüpraş
Best Fit for the Market with high diesel yield
High Complexity of Tüpraş
Presence in all overTurkey through
refineries and terminals
Local Market Dynamics
High Growth
Short on Diesel
Import Parity Pricing(Freight advantage of
Tüpraş)
Cost Base of Tüpraş
Energy Efficient
Crude Oil & FeedstockCost Advantage
Economies of Scale
8Kaynak: Platts*As of 24th May,2017
Middle Distilatte Cracks ($/bbl)
7,67,27,8 8,6
7,3
10,0
10,4 11,110,0
11,210,6
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
Diesel2014 2015 2016 2017
8,0
6,67,6 7,7
6,7
9,1
9,5 10,18,9
10,29,5
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jet Fuel
9
Light Distilatte Cracks ($/bbl)
-7,9
-11,7
-7,3
-7,3
2,4
-4,0
-0,5
-0,7
-2,2 -2,0
-2,9
-12
-8
-4
0
4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
Naphta
-46,0
-31,0
-4,7-2,2
-21,9
-17,2
-12,2-10,2
-19,5
-19,7
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
LPG
15,718,6
12,811,9
13,514,1
12,2
15,913,6
0
6
12
18
24
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gasoline2014 2015 2016 2017
Kaynak: Platts*As of 24th May,2017
Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl)
10
14,4
11,210,7
9,4
7,3 7,7 7,9
10,29,5
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Jet Fuel
2015 2016 2017
15,715,2
14,6
10,8
7,9
9,2 8,9
11,210,5
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Diesel2015 2016 2017
13,0
19,418,9
13,5
15,2
14,5
10,9
12,8
13,3
10
12
14
16
18
20
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gasoline2015 2016 2017
-11,6 -12,0
-13,1
-12,5
-13,2
-15,0
-10,6
-5,7
-9,1
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Fuel Oil2015 2016 2017
Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl)
11
-12
-8
-4
0
Price Differentials
Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy
Brent
-1,2-1,5
-1,7
-1,1-1,4
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012-2017 Differental Range 2015 2016 2017
Ural DifferentialsBrent
*As of 24th May,2017
4,10
4,58
4,40
0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0
2014
2015
2016
Jet Fuel
Turkish Consumption (Million tons)
17,43
20,56
22,31
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
2014
2015
2016
Diesel
1,92
2,10
2,23
0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 2,2
2014
2015
2016
Gasoline
0,54
0,60
0,58
0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60
2014
2015
2016
Fuel Oil*
Source: EMRA*bunker excluded.
+8.5 %
12
+15.8 %
+9.1 %
+6.5 %
-18.5%
-3.5%
+12 %
-4%
0,93
0,83
0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0
2016
2017
Jet Fuel
3 Months 2017 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)
4,69
4,94
1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0
2016
2017
Diesel
0,47
0,48
0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 0,35 0,40 0,45 0,50
2016
2017
Gasoline
0,21
0,19
0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25
2016
2017
Fuel Oil*
Source: EMRA*bunker excluded.
13
+5.5 % -10.2%
+2.1% -10.8%
Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net) (Million Ton)
-3,0
2,1
-10,0
1,5
-3,0
2,5
-10,8
1,6
-3,1
2,4
-12,0
1,0
-3,1
2,5
-12,7
1,8
-3,0
3,0
-12,3
1,6
-3,4
2,8
-13,0
0,3
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Export
Import
14
02 Company Overview
16
Tüpraş Refining Assets & Distribution Network
İzmir
İzmit
Ankara
İstanbul
Kırıkkale
Batman
Kirkuk
Baku
MARMARA
Black Sea
Terminal Refinery
OPET
Giresun
Terminal
OPET
Mersin
Terminal
OPET
Antalya
Terminal
OPET
Marmara
Terminal
Total Capacity: 28.1 mn. tonNelson Complexity: 9.5Tüpraş Storage Cap.: 7.2 mn. mᶟOPET Storage Cap.: 1.1 mn. mᶟ
19,392 m3 240,000 m3
721,000 m343,130 m3
Kırıkkale
• 5.0 MT Capacity
• NC: 6.32
• Storage Capacity: 1.4 mn m3
İzmit
• 11.0 MT Capacity
• NC: 14.5
• Storage Capacity: 3.0 mn m3
İzmir
• 11.0 MT Capacity
• NC: 7.66
• Storage Capacity:2.5 mn m3
• Base oil 400 k tons
Batman
• 1.1 MT Capacity
• NC: 1.83
• Storage Capacity:0.25 mn m3
OPET
1.524 Stations
Market positions: 18.9% in White product; 10.5% in black product
1.1 Million M3 Storage
• Marmara, Aegean, Black Sea & Mediterranean
International Trading
• London
Jet Fuel Sales
• Turkish Airlines JV
• 66% Market Share
Lubricants
• Fuchs JV
2nd Biggest Distribution Companyby Volume
• # 1 Brand Royalty Award
17
Tüpraş Share 40.0%
DİTAŞ, Marine Transport
•Crude• 2001
• 164,9 K DWT
Cumhuriyet
•Products• 2008
• 10,98 K DWT
Sevgi
•Products• 2009
• 10,87 K DWT
Gönül
• Products• 2012• 51,5 K DWT
Suna
•Products• 2011
• 6,3 K DWT
Leyla
• Bitumen
• 2x20 K DWT
• Esra 2014
• Aylin 2015
Esra & Aylin
•Products
•2009
•10,9 K DWT
Caroline
• Products
• 2009
• 11,5 K DWT
Nevbahar
DİTAŞ Financials 2016 (mn $)
Net Sales 151,3
Op. Profit 40,5
13 tugboats
10 mooring boats
2 service boats
1 pilot boat
Turkey’s leading company in marine transportation of crude oil and petroleum products
World’s biggest Asphalt Tankers (2 x 20,000 DWT ) for semi-product transfers btwn refineries
18
19,314,8
6,4 4,8 6,69,3
2,6
3,1
3,13,5
5,2
5,9
21,9
18,0
9,68,4
11,8
15,2
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mill
ion
Ton
s
Crude Oil Product
Tüpraş Share 79.98%
Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons)
9,7
2,1
2,0
2,4
3,1
1,1 0
,1
0,0
0,3
7,2
2,0
2,8 2
,3
3,8
1,5
0,3
1,0 0
,6
5,1
1,5
2,9 2
,4
6,1
1,5
0,3
0,7
0,6
5,3
0,6
1,9
2,4
5,7
1,6
0,2
0,1
2,6
5,4
7
3,1
1
2,3
9
2,5
7
11
,54
0,5
9
0,3
0
0,0
0 1,4
3
6,9
8
3,2
4
2,2
6
2,5
8
9,2
5
0,6
0
0,0
3
0,0
0
2,8
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
I RAN RUSSI A S. ARABI A TURK EY I RAQ K A Z A K STA N I TAL Y L İ BYA OTHER
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
In 2016, Tüpraş purchased 18 different types of crude oil from 10
countries, with gravities ranging between 19-48 API
6,3%
41,7%
52,0%
Crude Type - 2016
>34 30-34 30>
19
Margin Environment ($/bbl)
Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean
peers’ refining margin due to:
► Refined products deficit characteristic to
the Turkish market
► Access to cheaper sources of crude oil
Ability to use heavier and sour crudes
► Proximity to major suppliers
Reduces transport costs
► Implemented cost reduction measures
Energy efficiency programs
► Capacity to produce higher value
added range of refined products
► Direct pipeline connections with
domestic clients
► High export capability
5,54
1,95
2,89
1,17
4,21
1,671,95
4,83
3,97
5,13
-0,5
1,5
3,5
5,5
7,5
9,5
J-08
A-0
8
J-08
O-0
8
J-09
A-0
9
J-09
O-0
9
J-10
A-1
0
J-10
O-1
0
J-11
A-1
1
J-11
O-1
1
J-12
A-1
2
J-12
O-1
2
J-13
A-1
3
J-13
O-1
3
J-14
A-1
4
J-14
O-1
4
J-15
A-1
5
J-15
O-1
5
J-16
A-1
6
J-16
O-1
6
J-17
A-1
7
MonthAnnual
Med Complex
20
9,6210,55
11,8611,22
13,26
2,453,21
6,47 6,03
8,65
1,67 1,95
4,833,97
5,01
0
4
8
12
16
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1
Tüpraş Gross Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin
5,6
6,97,3 7,4
6,6 6,77,2 7,4
7,1
0
2
4
6
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Min / Max 2007/2015
2015
2016
2017
Capacity Utilisation* (%)6
5,1
80
,7
94
,5 99
,9
2,9
5,2
5,2
6,5
68,0
85,9
99,7
106,4
40
60
80
100
120
2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1
Crude Oil Other
Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons)
Production
21
+6.7%
*Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.
Gasoline21%
Naphtha1%
Jet16%
ULSD36%
Other5%
Coke3%
Fuel Oil12%
ASRFO+Vac1%
Bitumen5%
Gasoline22%
Naphtha1%
Jet15%
ULSD30%
Other6%
Coke2%
Fuel Oil13%
ASRFO+Vac2%
Bitumen9%
1st Quarter Product Yields
22
Light Distil.22,4%
Mid. Distil.45,4%
Other 6,1%
Black Prod.26,1%
White Product 77,97%Production : 7,1 mn tons
API: 31,08
White Product 72,94%Production : 6,6 mn tons
API: 31,14
% +5,0
20172016
+6,3
-0,7
Light Distil.22,0%
Mid. Distil.51,7%
Other 5,4%
Black Prod.20,9%
-5,2 -0,4
0,76 0,86 1,00 0,83 0,98 1,26 1,23 1,18 1,50 1,27 0,91 1,13 1,010,23 0,27
0,430,29
0,420,63 0,91 0,79
1,08 1,16
0,510,90 0,87
0,39 0,430,45
0,440,46
0,520,55 0,54
0,60 0,64
0,44
0,50 0,521,481,73
2,272,33 1,66
2,23
2,75
1,83
2,62 2,94
1,73
2,59 2,87
2,93,3
4,1 3,93,5
4,6
5,4
4,3
5,8 6,0
3,6
5,1 5,3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
14 15 16 17 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16
Domestic sales of selected productsJet Fuel
Bitümen
Gasoline
Diesel
Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons)
23
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
3,6 3,95,1 5,0
4,15,4
6,4
4,9
6,8 6,9
4,3
6,2 6,4
1,11,7
1,8 2,3
0,9
1,91,3
1,5
1,2 1,2
1,8
1,7 1,3
4,7
5,6
6,97,2
4,7
7,37,7
6,4
7,9 8,1
6,1
7,9 7,6
0
2
4
6
8
10
14 15 16 17 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16
Total SalesDomestic
Export
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
274355 400
186 177
628
974
1.213
959
344213
46,6
*125
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
Investments (mn $)
24
Ongoing Projects
•New Power Plant
•Revamp of Crude Unit
•FCC Modernization
•New Sulphur Units
•Energy Saving Projects
•Optimization of
conversion units
Avg 943 mn $
Avg 278 mn $Avg. 279 mn $
• 9.5 Nelson complexity• High white product yield• Process more heavier and sour crudes• Run all refineries with 100% capacity utilization
RUPTotal Investment: 3,1 Billion $Total Incentive: 3,78 Billion TLRemaining : 3,18 Billion TL
03 Key Financials
26
Financial Highlights (mn $)
95 79 150 150 114
427
153 78-27
415237
361315 226
410
294
10689
-11
422
480715560
338
1.397
1.125
-200
200
600
1.000
1.400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EBITDA
16172
231112
27
23575
75
171273
113
309 435
175 268
197
27147 91
285
256
817
629 667
938
594
0
250
500
750
1.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Income-1
.95
5
55
1
1.3
40 1.9
94
1.8
69
1.5
98
1.6
63 2.4
52
2.5
77
2.7
48
2.3
70
2.2
58
2.3
91
1.7
51
1.7
29
1.5
55
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
Net Debt
0,3
0
0,3
2
0,2
4
0,2
6
0,3
5
0,0
4
0,1
1 0,1
6 0,2
2
0,4
5
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2016 1H 20169M
2016 2017Q1
Return on Average Equity
Net Debt /EBITDA 0,77 2,39 4,92 1,70 1,54 1,08
Balance Sheet Analysis
27
1,72 1,69
1,30
1,64 1,68
1,211,04
0,821,04
1,64 1,59
2,45
1,72
2,02
0
1
2
3
Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)
0,93
0,71
0,52 0,51
0,09
0,20
0,66
1,07
0,88
0,70
0,91
0,75
0,91
1,09
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
Receivables (Billion $)
2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1 2,89 2,95
0,50,9
0,3 0,3 0,30,4 0,5 0,6 0,6
1,0 1,21,1
0,56 0,633,1
3,7
3,2 3,2 3,33,7 3,6 3,6 3,4
3,9 4,0 4,2
3,45 3,57
0
1
2
3
4
5
Financial Loans (Billion $)
LT Loans ST Loans 3,2
2
3,1
0 3,2
8
3,0
4
2,4
6
1,7
4
1,7
0
1,5
9
1,3
6
1,2
3
1,6
9 1,9
8
2,0
2
2,6
2
0
1
2
3
4
Payables (Billion $)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet
28
Million USD 31.03.2017 31.12.2016 Diff. % Diff.
Current Assets 4.529 3.884 645 17Cash & Equivalents 2.017 1.719 298 17
Receivables 1.088 911 177 19Derivatives 10 10 0 5Inventories 1.209 1.025 184 18
Pre-paid expenses 19 28 -9 -33Other Current Assets 186 190 -4 -2
Long Term Assets 4.827 4.987 -160 -3Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 252 264 -12 -4
Fixed Assets 3.224 3.338 -113 -3Derivatives 109 105 4 4
Pre-paid expenses 77 68 9 14Deferred Tax 874 917 -43 -5
Other Long Term Assets 290 296 -6 -2
Total Assets 9.356 8.871 485 5
Short Term Liabilities 4.315 3.597 718 20
Financial Loans 626 556 69 12
Payables 2.619 2.020 599 30
Derivatives 12 8 3 39
Deferred Incomes 1 4 -3 -79
Provisions 31 18 13 70
Other ST Liabilities 1.027 990 37 4
Long Term Liabilities 3.004 2.953 51 2
Financial Loans 2.946 2.892 54 2
Payables & Provisions 56 59 -3 -5
Derivatives 1 1 0 32
Other LT Liabilities 2 2 0 1
Equity 2.013 2.298 -285 -12
Minority Interests 23 22 1 4
Total Liabilities 9.356 8.871 485 5
Dividends (TRY)
1,73
3,242,94
4,96
5,83
4,78
0
10,18
7,16
2,31 2,502,98
3,93 3,85
1,58
6,506,22
579626
746
985 964
396
1.6281.557
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Payout (Mn. TL)Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout
2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive 29
One of the highest dividend yield in BIST
The policy is to distribute all the “net
distributable profit for the period”
Foreign Currency
Long Term
Tüpraş BBB- (IG) Ba1
Turkey BBB-(IG) Ba1 (-) BB
Koç Holding Baa3- (IG) BBB (IG)
BUY67%
HOLD; 33%
Analyst Recommendations
• Tüpraş has one of the highest
Corporate Governance Ratings
92,80
97,66
92,55
95,51
94,15
B O A R D
S T A K EH O L D ER S
T R A N S P A R EN C Y
S H A R EH O L D ER S
O V ER A L L
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE RATING
30
Creating Competitive & Sustainable Shareholder Value
FX Risk Exposure (31 March 2017)
31*Cash flow hedge(CFH) accounting : 1,403 mn $
ConsolidatedAssets
ConsolidatedLiabilities
LT Financials: 2,610
RUP Loans: 1,260
Eurobond: 700
Other credits 651
ST Financials 522
• RUP 296
Payables
957
Forward & CFH
1,636
Stock
1.166
Receivables & otherassets
26
Cash
1.242
Million $
-20 million $
Future Expectations
Brent PriceEstimation
The average Brent price in 2017 is expected to be 55 dollars per barrel.
Med Complex Margin
We expect Med Complex margins to be between 4.0 –4.5 dollars per barrel band in 2017.
TüpraşNet Margin
Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 5.75 – 6.25 dollars per barrel
Capacity Utilisation
Expectations for 2017;
• Full Capacity Utilization
• Production: ~ 29.2 million tons
• Total sales: 30.6 million tons
• Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production
InvestmentRefining CAPEX is expected to be 225 Million dollars. Additionally, 125 million dollar investment is planned for increasing the marine tanker fleet capacity.
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Updated information can be found in the Investor Relations section of the company website
www.tupras.com.tr
Investor Relations and Reporting DepartmentTel. : 262 316 3269Fax : 262 316 30 10-11Güney Mah. Petrol Cad. No .25 PK.41790 Körfez-Kocaeliwww.tupras.com.trE-mail: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current
views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in
these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in
underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any
liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.