Investor InformationFebruary 2020

Laura GagnonVice President Investor RelationsTel 813-775-4214Cell 612-201-7550laura.gagnon@mosaicco.com

1

Lucy TerrillSr. Manager Investor RelationsTel 813-775-4219Cell 813-417-5100Lucy.terrill@mosaicco.com

Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures

This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements aboutproposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of TheMosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: political and economic instability in Brazil or changes ingovernment policy in Brazil, such as higher costs associated with the new mining rules or the implementation of new freight tables; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about,agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in thedistribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates;international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the performance of the Wa’ad Al ShamalPhosphate Company (also known as MWSPC), the timely development and commencement of operations of production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the future success of current plansfor MWSPC and any future changes in those plans; the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine, which is operated by an entity in which weare the majority owner; difficulties with realization of the benefits of our long term natural gas based pricing ammonia supply agreement with CF Industries, Inc., including the risk that the cost savingsinitially anticipated from the agreement may not be fully realized over its term or that the price of natural gas or ammonia during the term are at levels at which the pricing is disadvantageous to Mosaic;customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, includingexpansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge ofnutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrativeproceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges tonecessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its strategicpriorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excessheat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation orother environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, or the costs of the MWSPC, its existing or future funding and Mosaic’s commitments in support of such funding; reduction ofMosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows atMosaic’s Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismicevents, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time inThe Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross margins, adjusted earnings per share. For important information regarding the non-GAAPmeasures we present, see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” in our February 19, 2020 earnings release and the performance data for the fourth quarter of 2019 that are available on our website atwww.mosaicco.com in the “Financial Information – Quarterly Earnings” section under the “Investors” tab. The earnings release and performance data are also furnished as exhibits to our Current Reporton Form 8-K dated February 19, 2020.

We are not providing forward looking guidance for U.S. GAAP reported diluted net earnings per share or a quantitative reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP EPS, adjusted Gross Margins andadjusted EBITDA. Please see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” in our February 29, 2020 earnings release for additional information.

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The Mosaic Company Overview

3

Investment Thesis

Long-term demand growth driven by global population and income growth.

Mosaic has long lived, high quality, low cost assets to support our mission: helping the world grow the food it needs.

The company continues to execute well, increasing leverage to improving market conditions.

Attractive outlook for agriculture industry into 2020 and beyond.

4

#2 Phosphate capacity of 16 million tonnes

#4 Potash capacity of 11 million tonnes

#1 Premium fertilizer producer

Distribution assets in key markets

Global potash sales through Canpotex

Phosphate Production

Potash Production

Distribution Facilities

Joint Ventures

High quality, diversified asset portfolio

Largest Global Finished Phosphate & Potash Producer

5

Leading position in Brazil:

Solidified through 2018 acquisition of Vale Fertilizantes

Largest in-country producer

Logistically advantaged production

Port ownership and access

Home base in North America:

74% of 2019 NA phosphate production

34% of 2019 NA MOP production

Focused on The Americas

6

Executing Our Strategy

North AmericaTransformationEsterhazy K3 DevelopmentNext Gen Phosphates

Drive Functional Collaboration and EfficiencyRethink and re-engineer to reduce structural costs Look for new ways to improve

South America Growth EngineLeverage Mosaic's in-country capabilities to grow Drive further efficiencies

Grow and Strengthen Our Product PortfolioPursue diverse opportunities that make us stronger and that yield mutual benefits for Mosaic and our customers

Act Responsibly

Be a good corporate citizen and contribute to the vitality of the people and the communities around us

Optimize Operating Assets and Capital ManagementContinue balanced approachAssess, prioritize and allocate capital to add value across the business

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Executing Well and Delivering Record Safety Performance

Potash Segment

Acceleration of Esterhazy K3Accelerated capital allocation to realize brine management cost savings 30 months ahead of original plan, lowers cash cost of production driving total cash savings of $300 million over time.

Indefinite idling of ColonsayFacilitated by faster ramp of production at Esterhazy K3, lowers cash cost of production.

Phosphates Segment

Market disciplineIdled Faustina and Florida operations to improve market balance. Improved future values with higher short term costs.

Mine of the Future Applying technology to facilitate lower costs of rock

Mosaic Fertilizantes Segment

Tailings Dam RemediationTook aggressive approach to leverage third party certification and meet new standards ahead of schedule, under budget

Synergy CaptureRealized approximately $330 million in synergies, faster and well above original expectations

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Potash K3 Acceleration 2.0

9

First miner in service:September 2019

Second miner in service:December 2019

Esterhazy Acceleration Implications

10

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

EsterhazyCash Production Cost / Tonne

Prior Forecast K3 Acceleration

~$225 million of Expected Brine Management Savings

~$75 million of ExpectedEsterhazy Production Savings

$0

$40

$80

$120

$160

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

EsterhazyCash Brine Management Spend

Prior Forecast K3 Acceleration

$ in millions $ / tonne

Soybean / Source: USDA, Agroconsult and IFS / 1: Phosphates

SoybeanAREA(K ha)

Yield (MT/ha)

Usage 1

Kg/Ha

USA 35.600 2.96 63.9

Brazil 36.000 2.94 94.3

World 121.770 2.54 -

Crop Brazil fert. usage (2018)

Global rank 2018(Production / Exports)

Soybean 43% 2nd / 1st

Corn 16% 3rd / 2nd

Sugar Cane 14% 1st / 1st

Coffee 6% 1st / 1st

Soil Fertility

Source: Based on ‘Global Roadmap’ / USDA data

Brazil is an Ag Powerhouse, But Poor Soil

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Brazil: A Large, Fast Growing Market

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

27.5

30.0

32.5

35.0

37.5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18E19F

Mil TonnesProduct

Brazil Total Plant Nutrient Shipments

Source: ANDA, Mosaic

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Mosaic has a leading position in one of the largest, fastest growing agricultural production regions in the world. Provides:• Significant growth

potential• Global diversification

~8% CAGR

Strong Execution: Mosaic Fertilizantes

$14M

$6M

$10M

$7M

$22M

• Despite dam regulatory driven challenges, exceeded target of $275 million of net annual synergies in 2019, by more than $50 million.

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Cumulative Synergy CaptureBy Quarter 2018-2019$ in millions

$34 $102

$158 $66

$121 $230

$275

$16 $23

$26

$29

$4

$7

$7 $55

$1

$200

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022Net Synergies

New target of $200 million incremental

annual pretax income growth

from 2019

Targeting an additional $200 million in P&L impact between 2020 and 2022

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$330

$530

$90

$60$50

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

Estimated syergies2019

IdentifiedtransformationInitiatives to beimplemented in

2020-2022

Rock cost efficiency Co-product sales Targeted pretaximprovement since

acquisition

Transformation Continues$ in millions

Production..... $60MMSupply Chain.. $10MMOthers............ $20MM

(1) The Transformation Program has achieved a P&L impact of approximately $330 million.

(2) Estimated capex of $60 MM to $90 MM over 3 years, beginning in 2020.

(2)

(1)

(1) Includes margins earned locally on sales by Mosaic Fertilizantes and Mosaic China.

2018 actual

2019actual

2021 target

Cash cost of U.S. mined rock ($/tonne) $38 $41 $39

Cash costs of conversion ($/tonne) $63 $65 $56

Sales of MicroEssentials (mm tonnes) 2.9 2.7 3.7

Average MicroEssentials margin, premium to MAP ($/tonne)(1) $43 $45 $40 - $50

Cash costs of production (excluding brine) – MOP ($/tonne) $66 $74 $62

Cash brine management costs ($ in millions) $123 $101 $85

Cash costs of rock (R$/tonne) R$346 R$331 R$320

Cash costs of conversion - Phosphates (R$/tonne) R$265 R$321 R$275

Total Selling, General & Administrative Expenses ($ in millions) $341 $354 $340

Ph

os

ph

ate

sP

ota

sh

Mo

sa

ic

Fe

rtil

iza

nte

s

Operating Driver Targets

15(1) Includes margins earned locally on sales by Mosaic Fertilizantes and Mosaic China.

Driving Growth 2019 to 2020

0

50

100

150

200

250

Brazil Dams Plant City EsterhazyK3

MF Value

Non Market Growth 2019 to 2020

Adjusted EBITDA(1)

Mosaic expects ~ $225 million of adjusted EBITDA(1) growth, all else equal, due to the following:

• The Brazilian phosphate mines resumed full operations in September, with the outages in 2019 expected to cost an estimated $80 million.

• Plant City costs to hold the plant idle will be eliminated with its closure announced in June of 2019, eliminating ~$20 million in costs.

• Increasing production by 600,000 tonnes from Esterhazy K3 is expected to increase EBITDA by ~$70 to $80 million.

• Mosaic Fertilizantes expects to realize incremental value from transformation of ~$200 million by 2022, $50 million in 2020.

(1)See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information

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Capital Allocation Philosophy:Cyclical upswing would drive substantial excess capital to deploy.

17

Excess capital allocation is expected to be balanced across 1) continued strengthening of the balance sheet as our bonds mature in 2021 and 2022; 2) increased returns to shareholders through measured dividend increases and share repurchases; 3) strategic investments that exceed the benefits of share repurchases.

ESG Engagement and Recognition

CDP Climate A-

CDP Water B

Sustainalytics 57

MSCI A

100 Best Corporate Citizens 77

FTSE ESG 3.7

People

Environment

Society

Company

ESG Focus Areas

Safety and Wellness

Diversity

Engagement

Water

Air and Energy

Land

Food Security

Community

Nutrient Stewardship

Agricultural Productivity

We are unwavering in our focus on the safety, wellness and engagement of our employees.

Mosaic is a committed steward of environmental resources, working efficiently and minimizing negative impacts.

We contribute to global food security. Mosaic maintains strong commitments to the communities where we have operations.

We operate responsibly, build trusted relationships and help our constituents thrive. Our impact measurement and reporting is balanced, accurate and comparable, and drives progress on the issues that are most important to Mosaic and its constituents.

Long-term Performance

Ethics and Compliance

Transparency

Priorities

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Results Summary December 31, 2019

20

Gross Margin/ Tonne $32

Adjusted Gross Margin/Tonne (1) $32

Sales Volumes 2.2 mmt

P Cash Conv. Costs BRL 289

Operating Rate 79%

Gross Margin/Tonne $(52)

Adjusted Gross Margin/Tonne (1) $(45)

Sales Volumes 2.0 mmt

Cash Conversion Costs $64

Operating Rate 79%

Gross Margin/Tonne $61

Adjusted Gross Margin /Tonne(1) $76

Sales Volumes 1.5 mmt

Cash Costs of Production $87

Operating Rate 63%

Results

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$ in million, except per share 4Q 2019 FY 2019

Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) $(2.43) $(2.78)

Adjusted diluted EPS(1) $(0.29) $0.16

Net Earnings (Loss) $(921) $(1,067)

Adjusted EBITDA(1) $202 $1,347

Cash from Operations $276 $1094

Capital Expenditures $340 $1,271

(1)See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information

Fourth quarter results include $1.1 billion in noncash, nonrecurring charges related to Potash asset optimization and a Phosphates goodwill impairment. Full year also includes noncash charges related to Phosphates asset optimization.

POTASH 4Q 2019 PHOSPHATES 4Q 2019 FERTILIZANTES 4Q 2019

Potash

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• Gross Margin per tonne improved over the prior year as a result of higher realized prices.

• The company has accelerated the development of the K3 shaft at its Esterhazy potash mine and now expects to transition from mining K1 and K2 to mining K3 a full year earlier, by the second half of 2022.

• The company has idled the Colonsay potash mine for the foreseeable future and wrote off $530 million of assets.

(in millions except per tonne) 2019 2018 2017

Sales Volumes (tonnes) 7.8* 8.8* 8.6

Operating Earnings $46 $511 $344

Adjusted EBITDA(1) $884 $866 $648

Gross Margin $ / Tonne $79 $68 $45

Adjusted Gross Margin $ / Tonne(1) $83 $69 $47

(1)See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information* Year-over-year comparison negatively impacted by a change in the Canpotex revenue recognition policy.

Mosaic Fertilizantes

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(in millions except per tonne) 2019 2018 2017*

Sales Volumes (tonnes) 9.2 9.1 9.35

Operating Earnings $133 $241 $63

Adjusted EBITDA(1) $304 $429 $73

Gross Margin $ / Tonne $31 $42 $8

Adjusted Gross Margin $ / Tonne(1) $31 $42 $8

• The company achieved approximately $330 million in net synergies in 2019, exceeding the original target by 19%

• In 2019, the company incurred approximately $80 million in incremental expense related to the impact of the new tailings dam regulations in Brazil.

• Gross margin per tonne decreased primarily due to lower prices and dam remediation costs, partially offset by synergies.

(1)See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information* Pro forma segment results

Phosphates

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• Realized finished phosphates prices remained pressured throughout 2019 due to reduced demand driven by adverse weather conditions in North America.

• Net sales for 2019 were $3.2 billion, down from $3.9 billion in 2018.

• During the year, the company announced the permanent closure of the Plant City facility. In the fourth quarter, the company temporarily idled its Louisiana facilities to facilitate a draw down of inventories and in preparation for a stronger market in 2020. Those actions resulted in $340 million of additional costs recorded as notable, and $110 million of idle costs included in the results.

(in millions except per tonne) 2019 2018 2017

Sales Volumes (tonnes) 8.2* 8.4* 9.5

Operating Earnings $(1,131) $473 $256

Adjusted EBITDA(1) $295 $966 $648

Gross Margin $ / Tonne $(10) $69 $35

Adjusted Gross Margin $ / Tonne(1) $(5) $72 $35

(1)See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information*Year-over-year comparison reflects the impact of the idling of Plant City

Markets

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2020 Strong Market Demand Driven by Constructive Ag Commodity Prices & Acreage Increase in North America

26Source: CME

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-19

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Jan

-20

$ / Bushel Corn PricesDaily Close of the Front Month Contract

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-19

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Jan

-20

$ / Bushel Soybean PricesDaily Close of the Front Month Contract

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-19

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Jan

-20

MYR / TonneMalaysian Palm Oil Prices

Daily Close of the Nearby Option • Weather challenges have resulted in underapplication of fertilizer in North America for three seasons in a row.

• Healthy ag commodity prices mean strong economic incentives to maximize harvest in 2020, with increased acreage and applying the right amounts of fertilizer.

• Trade tensions have eased.

Dec-20 contract range bound near $4.00/bu

Soybean prices poised to rally on return of Chinese buying

+21% y-o-y; +50% vs. Nov ‘18 low

Crop nutrients provide good value, particularly phosphates

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Source: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Plant Nutrient AffordabilityPlant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index

Affordability Metric Average 2010-2018

China update: Grain & oilseed imports fractionally higher in 2019; U.S. pork prices stall on higher production

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Source: China Customs, CME

0102030405060708090

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

China Cumulative Soybean Imports

2017 2018 2019

Mil Tonnes

2015: 81.72016: 83.22017: 95.52018: 88.02019: 88.6

• African swine fever had muted impact on Chinese G&O demand, while pork imports soared (~2x in 2019).

• Chinese soybean imports ‘leveled’ at the 88-89mmt range.

• Brazil was been the clear winner on 2019 pork exports to China – U.S./China trade dispute limited U.S. exports, while U.S. production has been sharply higher and brought about a sharp drop in CME prices.

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20

Cents / LB Lean Hog PricesDaily Close of Nearby Option

Agricultural fundamentals tightening as demand overtakes supply; stocks:use ratio lowest since 2012

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• A big step-up in global production since 2012/13

• But continued strong and steady demand growth

• Stocks as a percentage of use projected to drop to the bottom half of the 16%-19% range by the end of 2019/20

• The Food Story is still intact

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1819F

Percent

Crop Year Beginning in

Mil Tonnes World Less China Grain and Oilseed Stocks

Stocks S:U Percent Low 16% High 19%

Source: USDA February 11, 2020

Pricing outlook is positive, most notably for phosphates

30

175

225

275

325

375

425

475

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

$ / TonnesKCl Potash Prices

fob NOLA fob U.S. Corn Belt c&f Brazil c&f SE Asia

• Phosphate net price turns tend to be very sharp; Potash moves more gradually.

• Rapid phosphate price recovery is generally driven by fundamentals, exacerbated by sentiment. Potash supply aligns more quickly to demand.

• We believe strong demand pull will drive improved pricing dynamic in 2020.

Source: Argus, Mosaic1. Global net price averages several global price benchmarks for finished phosphates and raw materials. It does not include any handling, storage,

transportation or conversion costs.

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

$ / Tonnesproducts

High-Analysis Phosphate Global Net Price1

Calculated from Published Weekly Spot Prices

Potash: 2020 shipment forecast back on trend

31

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic

• A return to trendline growth would suggest ~68mmt of shipments this year, higher than our current expectations for 67.3mmt.

66-68

52.6

55.2

50.1

52.8

63.6

61.260.3

66.4 66.8

64.4

45

50

55

60

65

70

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19E 20F

Mil TonnesKCl Global MOP Shipments

Global potash shipment forecasts by region (February 2020)

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Muriate of PotashMil Tonnes KCl 2018 2019E

Low2020F

High2020F Comments

China 14.4 15.9 15.3 15.6Modest demand growth is expected to be offset by some drawdown of channel inventories, resulting in a potential y-o-y retreat in total MOP shipments in 2020 (our point estimate of 15.5mmt is still the 4th highest on record). The current situation (weak CNY and COVID-19) implies a slow Q1 after net imports surged 22% to almost 8.9mmt (9.1mmt imports, 0.2mmt exports) in 2019.

India 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.4

Lower prices, limited carry-in inventories and good demand are expected to drive recovery in Indian shipments this year. Demand prospects in India remain positive as above-average rainfall boosts Rabi harvest expectations, coupled with higher minimum support prices. Ample pre-monsoon rain and higher reservoir storage could also encourage Kharif sowing of major crops. Potash sales haveimproved in recent months and we expect the trend to continue into the start of the Kharif season, and assume little change to the potash MRP in 2020 (possibility for lower subsidy, but offset by lower international prices).

Indonesia & Malaysia

5.2 3.7 4.6 5.0We remain optimistic of a strong demand recovery in the region in 2020 due to the tightening of the palm oil S/D and y-o-y improved CPO prices (~2,700 MYR/t mid-Feb). The uncertainty around palm oil export demand (China/India import appetite) has tempered nearby demand expectations, but we expect very strong buying activity as we move toward the second half of the year.

Other Asia 4.9 4.5 4.7 4.9MOP shipments in 2019 were hampered by unfavorable weather in key countries in the region. We expect a decent recovery of demandthis year as farm economics have improved with rice prices now at levels above those in 1H 2018, combined with expectations for a return to a ‘normal’ weather pattern.

W. Europe 5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 We continue to project generally flat European shipments (industrial and ag demand) in 2020.

E. Europe & FSU 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 Continued expansion of the agricultural sector in the region provides a good demand base and we expect potash demand to continue to grow modestly. The key uncertainty remains around the potential for extreme weather events in the region.

Brazil 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.8

On-farm potash demand is forecast to grow another 2% this year in the face of good farm economics and favorable crop conditions.However, total shipments are expected to grow at a slower pace due to some drawdown of in-country inventories. MOP imports reached a record of 10.2mmt last year and we expect a similar level in 2020. MOP stocks have creeped up to almost 1.5mmt at the end of 2019, but this is only 100 basis points higher than the 10-year average stocks-to-use ratio.

Other L. America 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.4 Shipments in the rest of Latin America look to increase modestly due to generally favorable farm economics.

N. America 10.4 9.2 9.8 10.1

We expected a healthy rebound of demand in 2020 as farmers are expected to plant as much as 15 million more acres of corn andsoybean combined this spring and look to catch up on missed applications in seasons prior. Concerns about potentially high soil moisture levels yet again impacting spring fieldwork, logistics constraints and lingering channel inventories have prevented us from forecasting shipments to return to the circa 10.5mmt level seen in 2017 and 2018.

Other 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.3 Demand is also expected to return to moderate growth partly driven by higher NPK production in Africa.

Total 66.8 64.4 65.7 68.4 We have revised our shipment forecast modestly lower than previously and have narrowed our forecast range to 66-68mmt and a point estimate of 67.3mmt. We remain very bullish on demand in 2020, as the revised figures still represent a 2.9mmt or 4.5% y-o-y increase.

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic(Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding)

Potash: New supplies expected to only partly satisfy demand rebound; last year’s curtailments must revert

33

Source: Mosaic

-2.9

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

1.3

-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0

Demand Recovery

Usolskiy/Volgakaliy Ramp

Bethune Ramp

SQM ProductionAdjustments

Petrikovsky startup

Other Ramps

Other Changes

2020 Expected MOP Supply and Demand Changes(Mil Tonnes KCl)

Potential MOP Supply / Demand Changes

Mil Tonnes KCl 2020Projected Shipment Changes 2.90Percent Change 4.5%

Potential Supply Changes 2.75SQM Production Adjustments 0.33

K+S Bethune Ramp-Up 0.35

Eurochem Usolskiy+Volgakaliy Ramp-Up 0.69

Belaruskali Petrikovsky startup 0.10

Other Ramp-Up 0.01

Other Changes 1.28

S/D Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) -0.15

SurplusDeficit

Primarily comprised of curtailed production capability returning

Potash Outlook: Supply expected to closely align with demand growth, leading to stable industry operating rate

34

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic

• Our base case demand forecast (a slightly more conservative view on demand than CRU) shows a 2.3% CAGR from 2020 to 2024

• Depending the speed of the ramp-up of greenfield projects, we expect global capacity utilization to stabilize at slightly lower levels in the medium-term.

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

UtilizationMil Tonnes KCl Global MOP Shipments

Mosaic Forecast Ranges Actual/EstimatesCRU - Aug 2019 Capacity Utilization

~2.5% CAGR ~2.3% CAGR

Phosphate: 2020 shipment forecast back on trend

35

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic

60.1

64.765.5 64.2 65.7

68.769.7

71.6 72.2

70.7

68.0-71.0

71-73

55.0

57.5

60.0

62.5

65.0

67.5

70.0

72.5

75.0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19E 20F

Global Phosphate ShipmentsMMTDAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

• A return to trendline growth would suggest ~72.5mmt of shipments this year, slightly higher than our current expectations for 72.2mmt.

Global phosphate shipment forecasts by region (February 2020)

36

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic(Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding)

DAP / MAP / NPS* / TSP (Million Tonnes) 2018 2019E

Low2020F

High2020F Comments

China 18.7 17.6 16.9 17.5

We have rebased our China figures higher to be more comprehensive in our counting of formerly excluded tonnages used for NPK manufacturing in particular, though our estimate for 2019 shipments continues to show a decline of over 1mmt y-o-y. We continue to believe that domestic shipments will stabilize around that level, though the impact of coronavirus on production and consumption, particularly NPKs, is a yellow flag for 2020. These impacts are also likely to be seen in the way of lower DAP/MAP/TSP exports in the first half of the year.

India 9.9 10.5 9.8 10.1

Our projection for both 2019 and 2020 have been revised higher. Domestic production in 2019 surged to 4.8mmt (vs. 3.6mmt in 2018), offsetting a 600,000 tonne decline in imports to 5.6mmt. We assume both production and imports will moderate in 2020 to around 10mmt combined, as a small inventory build is worked through. Last year’s above average monsoon and recent rains keeping reservoirs flush, coupled with higher minimum support prices, a lower MRP y-o-y, and assuming a stable and normal monsoon this year, we anticipate on-farm demand in 2020 will again surpass 10mmt.

Other Asia/Oceania 10.1 9.8 10.0 10.3 A meaningful recovery in palm oil and rice prices, up circa 20% and 30% y-o-y, respectively, is the main impetus of our expectation for a rebound of demand in 2020. Drought in Australia has eased, mitigating our previous demand concern there.

Europe and FSU 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.6Our 2019 figure is little-changed. Channel inventories are understood to have closed out the year about average, and we are keeping our previous demand forecast unchanged. Farm economics are robust, though drought incidence in the Black Sea region and parts of Germany remain a yellow flag.

Brazil 8.5 8.8 8.8 9.0 Our shipment estimates for both 2019 and 2020 are unchanged. The ag sector in Brazil continues to perform very well, and steady growth is again anticipated after phosphate inventories ended the year around average levels.

Other Latin America 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.12019 revised lower as buyers stepped away from typical fill volumes in Q4, drawing down inventories. While this should set the stage for strong buying as we move through 2020 given robust farm economics, we have moderated our forecast slightly to account for concerns over potential demand disruption in Argentina due to government intervention (export taxes).

North America 10.2 9.4 9.8 10.3

A weather-shortened application window in fall 2019 resulted in a small downward adjustment to our estimate, though there was a long tail to the season that extended into Q1 in the Cornbelt that has allowed fieldwork to resume and channel inventories to work lower. Imports also tapered off in December and January (combined imports for those two months were 500,000 tonnes lower y-o-y). With a return to more normal weather in spring 2020, we expect robust on farm demand given the likelihood of 10-15 million additional corn/soybean acres, decent farm economics (assisted by MFP payments) and the historically low phosphate prices at present.

Other 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.3 Our 2020 forecast calls for a sharp rebound in Africa, led by big slate of shipments to East Africa that slipped from 2019 into 2020.

Total 72.2 70.7 70.6 73.2

The rebasing of our Chinese data shifts our global demand figures higher, but still shows a y-o-y decline in 2019 of 1.5mmt (-2.0%), as weak shipments in China and North America were only partly offset by growth in India, Brazil and the FSU. For 2020, we continue to expect the pluses to outweigh the minuses – a rebound in North America and Africa offsets the potential for another drop in China and retrenchment in India – with global shipments posting a moderate 2% increase on average. This would bring global shipments to 71-73mmt, with our point estimate at 72.2 million tonnes.

* NPS products included in this analysis are those with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.

Phosphate: S/D tightening in 2020; China phosphate exports will determine how tight

Potential Phosphate Supply / Demand Changes

Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP 2020Projected Shipment Changes 1.48.

Potential Supply Changes Excluding China 1.35

Producer Inventory Draw (+) or Build (-) 0.50

OCP / MOS Curtailments -0.70

OCP Line F Ramp-Up and Debottlenecking 0.40

MWSPC Ramp-Up 0.40

GCT Sfax Closure/M'dilla Start-Up (Tunisia) -0.15

Turkey/Egypt Greenfields 0.25

Other Ramp-Ups / Closures 0.15

Miscellaneous Changes (Tunisia/Mexico/Australia/South Africa) 0.50

S/D Surplus (+)/Deficit (-) Excluding China Export Change -0.13

Base Case China Export Change -0.50

S/D Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) -0.63

37

Source: Mosaic

-1.5

0.5

-0.7

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.5

-0.5

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0

Demand Recovery

Producer Inventory Draw

Curtailments

OCP Ramp

MWSPC Ramp

Turkey/Egypt Greenfield

Other Changes

China Low Exports

2020 Phosphate Supply and Demand Changes(Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP)

SurplusDeficit

Phosphate: China exports slowed in H2 2019

38

Source: China Customs

• After running nearly 1mmt higher y-o-y earlier in the year…

• …2019 exports of ~10mmt were down by 1mmt or over 9% y-o-y.

• We expect this slow pace to continue in early 2020, driven by coronavirus-driven production curtailments and a focus on their domestic spring season.

China Phosphate Exports

January-December 2019 vs. 2018

1000 Tonnes 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Change Pct Chg

DAP 8,019 6,798 6,400 7,469 6,477 -992 -13.3%

MAP 2,708 2,026 2,712 2,490 2,329 -161 -6.5%

TSP 876 683 1,003 1,083 1,204 121 11.1%

Total 11,604 9,507 10,116 11,041 10,010 -1,032 -9.3%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports(1,000 Tonnes)

2016

2017

2018

2019

Phosphate Outlook: Slow, steady demand growth expected to outpace new supply for a few years, boosting operating rates

39

• Our base case demand forecast is generally aligned with CRU’s and shows a slower pace of 1.6% CAGR from 2020 to 2024 versus the preceding decade.

• We continue to project a steady uptick in the industry’s capacity utilization rate over the next few years as there is limited new phosphoric acid capacity expected.

70%

74%

78%

82%

86%

90%

55

60

65

70

75

80

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19F 20F 24F

Global Phosphate Shipments

Actual Range CRU - Jan 2020 Utilization

MMT DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic

~1.9% CAGR ~1.6% CAGR

Non GAAP Reconciliations

40

Reconciliation of non GAAP measures

Consolidated Earnings (in millions) 4Q 2019 4Q 2018 2019 2018

Consolidated net (loss) earnings attributable to Mosaic $(921) $112 $(1,067) $470

Less: Consolidated interest expense, net $(47) $(31) $(183) $(166)

Plus: Consolidated depreciation, depletion and amortization

$233 $235 $883 $884

Plus: Accretion expense $14 $8 $58 $48

Plus: Share-based compensation expense $5 $2 $29 $27

Plus: Consolidated provision for (benefit from) income taxes

$(289) $33 $(226) $77

Plus: Notable items $1,113 $176 $1,487 $432

Adjusted EBITDA $202 $603 $1,347 $2,104

Diluted (loss) earnings per share $(2.43) $0.29 $(2.78) $1.22

Notable items impact on earnings per share $2.14 $0.48 $2.94 $0.90

Adjusted diluted earnings per share $(0.29) $0.77 $0.16 $2.12

Reconciliation of non GAAP measures

Phosphates Earnings (in millions) 4Q 2019 4Q 2018 2019 2018

Operating earnings (loss) $(712) $83 $(1,131) $473

Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization $113 $101 $430 $403

Plus: Accretion expense $12 $8 $46 $37

Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) $(2) $7 $2 $11

Plus: Other income (expense) $0 $0 $13 $(15)

Plus: Equity in net earnings (loss) from nonconsolidated companies

$(25) $(1) $(60) $(6)

Less: Earnings (loss) from consolidated noncontrolling interests

$(29) $(1) $(18) $1

Plus: Notable items $593 $41 $977 $64

Adjusted EBITDA $8 $240 $295 $966

Gross Margin / tonne ($52) $81 $(10) $69

Notable items in gross margin / tonne $7 $0 $5 $3

Adjusted gross margin / tonne ($45) $81 $(5) $72

Reconciliation of non GAAP measures

Phosphates Earnings (in millions) 4Q 2019 4Q 2018 3Q 2019

Gross Margin $(106) $151 $(19)

Notable items in gross margin $16 $0 $7

Adjusted gross margin $(90) $151 $(12)

Reconciliation of non GAAP measures

Potash Earnings (in millions) 4Q 2019 4Q 2018 2019 2018

Operating earnings $(452) $149 $46 $511

Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization $76 $80 $296 $301

Plus: Accretion expense $2 $1 $7 $5

Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) $27 $(86) $70 $(117)

Plus: Other income (expense) $0 $1 $2 $1

Plus: Notable items $506 $125 $463 $165

Adjusted EBITDA $159 $270 $884 $866

Gross Margin / tonne $61 $88 $79 $68

Notable items in gross margin / tonne $15 $0 $4 $1

Adjusted gross margin / tonne $76 $88 $83 $69

Reconciliation of non GAAP measures

Potash Earnings (in millions) 4Q 2019 4Q 2018 3Q 2019

Gross Margin $92 $202 $158

Notable items in gross margin $22 $0 $12

Adjusted gross margin $114 $202 $170

Reconciliation of non GAAP measures

Mosaic Fertilizantes Earnings (in millions) 4Q 2019 4Q 2018 2019 2018

Operating earnings (loss) $5 $85 $133 $241

Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization $38 $49 $136 $159

Plus: Accretion expense $3 $2 $7 $4

Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) $7 $(2) $(44) $(85)

Plus: Other income (expense) $(2) $1 $(8) $(1)

Less: Earnings (loss) from consolidated noncontrolling interests

$1 $2 $2 $3

Plus: Notable items $28 $5 $82 $114

Adjusted EBITDA $78 $138 $304 $429

Gross Margin / tonne $32 $56 $31 $42

Notable items in gross margin / tonne $0 $0 $0 $0

Adjusted gross margin / tonne $32 $56 $31 $42