INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with...

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INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 14 th August 2012 2Q12 results and comments 1

Transcript of INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with...

Page 1: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE

14th August 2012

2Q12 results and comments

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DISCLAIMER

The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified NoThe views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu Public Company Limited. Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.

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1. Focus: weathering the storm…

2. Coal operations

3. Coal marketing

4. Power business

5. Financial summary

Appendices

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1. Focus: weathering the storm…

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Banpu has been through difficult times before…

LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE

1980s

• Banpu has three decades of experience and has faced difficult macroeconomic conditions many times before

• Coal Thailand

SET li ti

BANPU EXTERNAL

1 Mt

COAL SALES

1990s

conditions many times before

• Despite many short term setbacks, over the long term

• SET listing • Low coal prices

• Low coal prices• Mae Moh contract

I d i

1 Mt

1990s Banpu has delivered strong shareholder returns

• Banpu has focused on growth

• Asian economic crisis !

• Indonesia

• Power business

• Indocoal acquisition

4 Mt

2000s• Banpu has focused on growth

– but also on sustainability

• Emphasis on pro-active risk

Indocoal acquisition

• Non-core divestment

• China coal

• Coal price growth

• Lehman crisis !20 Mt

2010s

Emphasis on pro active risk management, contingency planning, strategic flexibility

• Australia coal

• Mongolia coal• European debt

crisis !44 Mt

5

44 Mt

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Checklist for weathering the current ‘storm’

FUNDAMENTALS ACTION PLAN 2012-13

Domestic coal sales less impacted by benchmark prices Cut costs and reduce strip

ratios in Indonesia 2012-13

Export sales mainly to strong credit large corporate buyers

Productivity improvements in Indonesia and Australia

Power earnings a hedge against lower coal prices

Reduce and delay capexplans: target 30% reduction 2011-15

Geographic diversity of assets mitigates regulatory risks and gives strategic flexibility

Limited impact to medium term output targets

Financial discipline and risk management systems

Maintain strong EBITDA to net debt ratio and dividend yield

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Structure of adjusted operating earnings*

Bt 13.8 bn*

Bt 9.3 bnExport coalAustralia and Indonesia

• Coal exports mainly to large creditworthy customers in NE Asia

• Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices

Bt 1.9 bnDomestic coal • Mainly long term contracts with large power companies

Bt 2.5 bn

Australia, Indonesia, China

PowerBLCP and China power

power companies

• Note: Hongsa earnings will grow as BLCP earnings decline

H1 2012

7* Figures shown above are based on EBITDA results multiplied by Banpu’s percentage ownership in each business (for example, taking only 65% of ITM’s EBITDA)

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Banpu: high quality coal portfolio*

Calorific value (adb, Kcal/kg)

7 1007 0007 200 7 000 7 250

Indonesia peer 1

Indonesia peer 2

Indonesia peer 3

Indonesia peer 4

Indonesia peer 5

Indonesia peer 6

Indonesia peer 7

Australia peer 1

Australia peer 2

Avg Chinese peers

7,1007,0007,200

5,700 5,4175,900

5,230

7,0006,400

7,2506,850

5,0005,4005,300 5,200

4,3095,500 5,215 5,300 5,400

6,950 6,7006,500

5,850

ITM Centennial

Ash (adb, %)

peer 1 peer 2 peer 3 peer 4 peer 5 peer 6 peer 7 peer 1 peer 2 peers

27.0

18 0 19 0

Indonesia peer 1

Indonesia peer 2

Indonesia peer 3

Indonesia peer 4

Indonesia peer 5

Indonesia peer 6

Indonesia peer 7

Australia peer 1

Australia peer 2

Avg Chinese peers

ITM Centennial

6.012.0

2.0 2.5 5.1

18.0

8.0 9.0 10.0

19.0

4.09.0

2.5 1.0 2.0 4.5 4.0 5.0 4.0 6.5 8.510.09.0

Sulphur (adb, %)

2.00.6

1.40.1 0.1

1.0

2.5

0.7 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.0

* Peer figures are from company sources

Indonesia peer 1

Indonesia peer 2

Indonesia peer 3

Indonesia peer 4

Indonesia peer 5

Indonesia peer 6

Indonesia peer 7

Australia peer 1

Australia peer 2

Avg Chinese peers

ITM Centennial

0.1 0.10.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5

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Banpu’s main customers

C t

ITM: TOP 5 CUSTOMERS

Customer

Country China Indonesia Taiwan Italy Japan

Credit rating BB+ (Fitch) na BBB+ (S&P) Baa1 (Moody’s) / A- (Fitch) / BBB+ (S&P) A3 (Moody’s)/ A (S&P)

Business relationship (years) 6 6 7 6 14

Current contract duration Evergreen Evergreen Evergreen End Dec’ 12 End Dec’14

Customer Pen

CENTENNIAL: TOP 5 CUSTOMERS

Customer Pen Country Australia Australia Taiwan Taiwan Japan

Credit rating AA- (Fitch) / AA- (S&P) na A+ (S&P) na A1 (Moody’s) / A+ (S&P)

Business relationship (years) +20 +20 +10 3 3p (y )

Current contract duration End Jun 22 End Jun 22 End Dec 19 End Jan 13 End Mar 13

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Focus: reducing costs in Indonesia in 2012

$/t

INDICATIVE FOB CASH PRODUCTION COSTS PER TONNE

Target reduction

50.0

60.0

Logistics and overheads

Reduce management overheads

-$3/t

40.0Other pit-operation activities

W t i i t

Reduce management overheads

Processing, haulage and port

20.0

30.0Overburden removal costs

Cut Indominco SR:13.2 to 12.9 (and potentially to 12 6)

Waste mining cost

10.0

(and potentially to 12.6)

Cut Trubaindo SR: 13.5 to 12.5

0.02012 original plan 2012 revised plan

ROM OUTPUT: 27.0 Mt 27.0 Mt

10ILLUSTRATIVE AND INDICATIVE ONLY

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Focus: Centennial outlook

KEY STRENGTHS DOMESTIC CONTRACT OUTLOOK

• Full production rates expected at three main longwall operations in 2H12

• Increased productivity should enable 20

MtHigh percentage of domestic contracts• Increased productivity should enable

10-15% unit operating cost reductions in 2H12 compared to 2Q12

14

16

18domestic contracts next two years

• Indexed-linked domestic contracts with expiring contracts renewable at long-term export parity pricing 8

10

12

• Export business with long standing customers to premium markets

• Flexibility to build both domestic and 0

2

4

6

Flexibility to build both domestic and export business in accordance with market opportunities

011A 12F 13F 14F 15F

Domestic Domestic potential Export

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Focus: Hongsa

PROJECT SUMMARY PROJECT VALUE DEVELOPMENT CURVE

• Project progress at end 2Q is slightly ahead of schedule

• COD f fi t it t t d f40%

60%

80%

100%

Main road completion

COD Unit 1

COD Unit 3

COD Unit 2

RU

CTI

ON

PLA

N

NP

V

90%

• COD of first unit targeted for June 2015

• Hongsa project is targeted to % Project NPV*

0%

20%

Dec

10

Apr

11A

ug11

Dec

11A

pr12

Aug

12D

ec12

Apr

13A

ug13

Dec

13A

pr14

Aug

14

Dec

14A

pr15

Aug

15D

ec15

CO

NS

TR

40-60%

Hongsa project is targeted to contribute around Bt 3 – 6 bnper annum to Banpu EBITDA (from 40% shares of holding)

% Project NPV

100%

from 2016

• Growing contribution from Hongsa will gradually offset 10 ‐ 20%

40 ‐ 60%

20 ‐ 30%30 ‐ 40%

Hongsa will gradually offset the decline in earnings from BLCP over the long term

Commercial Operation

CommissioningFinancingSecured 

Site Identification & Studies

PFS completed

FS completed Construction

*Source: AWR Lloyd

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Source: AWR Lloyd

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Capex plan changes 2011-2015

1800

$Millionc.30% reduction1,748

3781600

1800

POWER

1,748

4001200

1400

MONGOLIA

1,248

200

378

800

1000 Maintain Hongsa equity injection and China power expansions as planned

Deferred development of Tsant Uul and

625

425400

600AUSTRALIA Altai Nuur; focus on exploration

Capex adjustment – mainly postponement to ramp-up of Newstan

345245

0

200 INDONESIA

to ramp up of Newstan

Postponement of some developments BoCT urgent improvement only

13

0Original plan Revised plan

DISCLAIMER: ALL CAPEX FIGURES ARE INDICATIVE ONLY AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

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Financial discipline and risk management

Example 1: Gearing management Example 2: Dividend payments

2.1X2x

3xNet debt / adjusted EBITDA*

Bt 21.0Bt 21.0

Dividend per share

1.5X

1x

2xBt 16.0

Bt 12.0Bt 8.5

201220112010 20112010200920082007

• Banpu has a track record of strong and growing dividend payments

• Banpu maintains conservative Net debt/EBITDA ratio as contingency for volatile coal prices and macro-economic

diti ( d f thconditions (and for new growth opportunities)

14* Adjusted EBITDA: includes interest in JVs; excludes net gains from disposal from investments in 2010 and 2011

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2. Coal operations

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2. Coal divisions2. Coal operations

(a) Australia Coal

(b) Indonesia Coal

(c) China Coal

(d) Mongolia Coal

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Australia Coal: operational and financial summary2012 OUTPUT TARGETS (EQUITY BASIS) KEY UPDATES: Q2 2012

Production Equity ROM output 2.9 Mt,

2Q12 ASP A$82/t (up from A$78/t in

Charbon Newstan Extension

Newcastle

q y p ,23% down YoY

Extended longwall changeover at Mandalong

Springvale encountered an

$ ( p $1Q12), Australian GAAP basis

Benefited from improved export sales mix, with e ports at 54% ( p from

Airly

Neubeck Angus Place Mandalong

Mannering Myuna

PWCSInglenook

NCIG area of poor geological conditions during 2Q12

exports at 54% (up from 41% in 1Q12) of total sales

Clarence

SpringvaleNORTHERN OPERATIONS:

8.0 Mt FINANCIAL SUMMARY: Q2 2012

Sales revenue A$269m ▲ 1% YoY

EBITDA A$43 39%Sydney

Open-cut mine

WESTERN OPERATIONS: 7.3 Mt

EBITDA A$43m ▼ 39%

NPAT A$7m ▼ 22%

CAPEX A$64m ▲ 75%

Wollongong

PKCT

ProjectUnderground mine

Port

Power station

RoadRail

Gearing: ND / ND + Equity(Net debt to Net debt + book value of equity)

28.6%

17

Rail

Note: NCIG = Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group; PWCS = Port Waratah Coal Services; PKCT = Port Kembla Coal Terminal

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Australia Coal: Northern Operations quarterly outputOTHER OPERATIONSMANDALONG NEWSTAN EXTENSION

COAL OUTPUT (Mt)* COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*

CV: 6,700 kcal/kg** CV: 6,700 kcal/kg**CV: 6,700 kcal/kg**

1.4 1.81.2

1.8

0.5

1.60.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e

Under construction

● Mandalong development on budget, but longwall significantly outperformed: resulted in extended l ll h f 6 k

LW MOVE SCHEDULE

2 3

LW MOVE SCHEDULE

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e

longwall changeover of c. 6 weeks (normally c. 3 weeks)

● Myuna improved during 2Q12, with further improvement expected 2H12 as it moves to extraction

wks wks

6 wks

Mth 1

Mth 2

Mth 3

Mth 1

Mth 2

Mth 3 1 as it moves to extraction

● Mannering restructured at end 2Q12, with two of three units (equipment and crew) moved to Newstan

Mth 3

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e

Mth 3

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e 4Q12e

1 wk

18Note: *Output figures are ROM output (equity basis)

**CV figures are air-dried basis

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Mandalong: extended longwall changeoverTYPICAL PLAN VIEW OF A SERIES OF LONGWALL PANELS LONGWALL EXTRACTION OUTPERFORMANCE

Direction of mining

Direction of mining

1

of miningg

Completed LW ahead

Roadway development on plan, but lagged longwalloutperformance

1

2LW ahead

of plan

Adjacent roadway development for the new longwallpanel occurs simultaneously with longwall extraction

2

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Newstan: plan

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Australia Coal: Western Operations quarterly outputOTHER OPERATIONSANGUS PLACE SPRINGVALE

COAL OUTPUT (Mt)* COAL OUTPUT (Mt)* COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*

CV: 6,700 kcal/kg** CV: 6,700 kcal/kg** CV: 6,700 kcal/kg**

0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.50.40.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6

0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e

● Angus Place continues to outperform, with weekly and monthly production records achieved in 2Q12

LW MOVE SCHEDULE

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e

LW MOVE SCHEDULE

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e

● Springvale – 2Q12 impacted by an area of poor geology. Production now approaching normal levels

● 2H12 - Clarence and Charbon moving

Mth 1

Mth 2

Mth 3

10 wks

Mth 1

Mth 2

Mth 3

7 wks

4

5wks

to a more productive extraction phase

● Airly continues to improve, with recent process improvements and the arrival of some delayed equipment

Mth 3

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e 4Q12e

Mth 3

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e 4Q12e

wks

21Note: *Output figures are ROM output (equity basis)

**CV figures are air-dried basis

Page 22: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Australia Coal: indicative operating costs and ASP

A$/t* 2Q12 mining costs were higher due to

INDICATIVE AVERAGE MINING COSTS COMMENTS

$59

50

60 Longwall changeover at Mandalong Area of poor geology at Springvale. For 2012, mining costs expected to

$52

$59

Planned cost reduction by 10-15%

40Coal handling & preparationCash overheadOpen-cut contractor cost

fall by 10-15% from 2Q12’s due to: Angus Place, Mandalong and

Springvale longwalls operating at full production

Depreciation

30General expenses

Repairs & maintenance

Stores & supplies

full production Charbon, Clarence and Myuna

benefit from extraction activities Continued improvements at Airly

10

20 Stores & supplies

Labor

Mannering restructured, with 2 of 3 units moved to Newstan.

2012 selling, distribution and royalties t d t A$16/t

0Q1 2012 Q2 2012 FULL YEAR

expected to average ~A$16/t.Q2 ASP is A$82/t, with overall 2012 ASP expected lower

2012 PLAN

Indicative average mining costs*

* These figures do not include selling, distribution and royalties costs

22

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Australia Coal: key development projects

DEVELOPMENTS ORGANIC GROWTH LOGISTICS PORTS

Banpu Board Approval for development of Newstan Extension obtained. Timing of capital expenditure under

Own locomotives and wagons now delivered – providing logistical flexibility, reducing distribution costs and enabling

NCIG Stage 2AA completed 3 months ahead of schedule and budget - providing additional port capacity to

CAPEX TIMELINES (INDICATIVE ONLY)

cap a e pe d u e u dereview.

d s bu o cos s a d e ab ggreater control of exports.

add o a po capac y oboost export sales.

PROJECT NAME PROGRESSTotal CAPEX

2012 – 15 only (c A$m)

2012 2013 2014 2015(c.A$m)

Western infrastructure Feasibility Study [20]

Newstan extension and C t ti CAPEX PLANSNewstan extension and Northern washeryupgrade

Construction stage [385]

Angus Place extension Pre-Feasibility Study [20]

2016

CAPEX PLANS CURRENTLY UNDER

REVIEW

23

Study

DISCLAIMER: ALL CAPEX FIGURES ARE INDICATIVE ONLY AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

2016

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2. Coal divisions2. Coal operations

(a) Australia Coal

(b) Indonesia Coal

(c) China Coal

(d) Mongolia Coal

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Indonesia Coal: operational and financial summary

KITADINTANDUNG MAYANG

2012 OUTPUT TARGETS (100% BASIS) KEY UPDATES: Q2 2012

Production:

Bharinto commenced

2Q12 ASP:

$94 6/t (down 3% fromEast

Kalimantan

INDOMINCO 15.0 Mt Bontang Coal Terminal

TANDUNG MAYANG2.7 Mt

Bharinto commenced operation since early April 12

2Q12 output achieved according to plan

$94.6/t (down 3% from $97.4/t in 2Q11 and down 6% from $101.1/t in 1Q12)

Bunyut Port

KITADIN

TRUBAINDO 7.0 Mt Samarinda

Captive coal-fired power

project

according to plan

ITM production 2Q12 : 6.8mt, up 17% YoY

BalikpapanCentral Kalimantan

KITADIN-EMBALUT 0.7 MtBHARINTO

0.7 MtFINANCIAL SUMMARY: Q2 2012

Sales revenue $626m ▲ 25% YoYPalangkaraya

Banjarmasin

South Kalimantan EBITDA $168m ▲ 2%

NPAT $119m ▲ 5%

JORONG 1.0 MtJorong Port

OperationProject

OperationProject

POWER

COAL

CAPEX $12m ▲ 1%

Gearing: ND / Equity(Net debt to book value of equity) -52% from

-44%

25

Project

Page 26: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Indonesia Coal: quarterly outputTRUBAINDO - BHARINTO EMBALUT - JORONGINDOMINCO - BONTANG

COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*

CV: 6050 - 6500 kcal/kg**

COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*

CV: 6250 - 7200 kcal/kg**

COAL OUTPUT (Mt)*

CV: 5750 kcal/kg**

TDM

YC

K

TO

EM

BA

LUT

2 1 2 0 0.5

0.70.6

3.4

4.24.5

3.64.2 4.4

0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

CV: 5300 kcal/kg**

BLO

CK

WB

LO

BA

IND

OB

HA

RIN

T

RO

NG

1 7 2.1 2.1 2.1

3.8

1.7

2.1 2.0

1.41.4

1 7 1 82.1

1 7 2.0 2.0

0.2

2.3 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e

E B

TRU

B

JOR

STRIP RATIOS (b /t) STRIP RATIOS (b /t) STRIP RATIOS (b /t)

1.7 2.1 2.11.6

2.10.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.21.7 1.8 1.7 0

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e

STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t) STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t) STRIP RATIOS (bcm/t)

13.1 13.312.5

WB

LOC

K

11.58.7

11.2

KIT

AD

IN

12.111.7

14.0 15.811.613.8

10.9 10.910.9

E B

LOC

K

TRU

BA

IND

O

8.68.6 8.6JOR

ON

G

10.011.9 14.1 13.4 13.5

11.78.6 8.6

12.511.2

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

8.610.5

26Note: *Output figures are 100% basis

**CV figures are air-dried basis

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12e

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Indonesia Coal: key development projects

DEVELOPMENTS Bontang Port ExpansionIPCC Systems*

PIT

SPREADER STOCKPILE

Bunyut Port Expansion

100 m

50 m

BENCHES

BACKHOEEXCAVATOR

TRUCK

IN-PITCRUSHER

IN-PITCONVEYORS 100 m

50 m

Conducted an external study to expand existing port capacity and mine-stock capacity at Bontang

On process of importing the crusher and conveyer unit and expected to be completed by end of the year

Prospective consultants submitted ‘Expression of Interest’ for the study phase

CAPEX TIMELINES (INDICATIVE ONLY) PROJECT NAME PROGRESS

Total CAPEX 2012 – 15 only

(c.US$m)2012 2013 2014 2015

p y gy

(c.US$m)

Bharinto Production stage [100]

IMM - East block IPCC System

FeasibilityStudy [85]

CAPEX PLANSSystem Study

BoCT expansion to 30 Mtpa

FeasibilityStudy [40]

Bunyut port expansion FeasibilityStudy [20]

CAPEX PLANS CURRENTLY UNDER

REVIEW

27Note: IPCC System = In Pit Coal Crusher and Conveyor System

Study [ ]

DISCLAIMER: ALL CAPEX FIGURES ARE INDICATIVE ONLY AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

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2. Coal divisions2. Coal operations

(a) Australia Coal

(b) Indonesia Coal

(c) China Coal

(d) Mongolia Coal

28

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China Coal: operational and financial summaryCHINA COAL 2012 PRODUCTION TARGETS* OPERATIONAL UPDATES

GAOHE

All i ht i d i ti d t G h i 2Q● All eight required inspections passed at Gaohe in 2Q.

● Opening Ceremony was held on the morning of June 28th

following the Final Acceptance Inspection on June 27th.

● The Official Approval Document for the Final Acceptance BEIJING

Gaohe(45%),Shanxi

from the NDRC was received and submitted to ChangzhiCoal Mine Safety Administration in order to apply for the Safety and Production Licenses.

● Gaohe has finished the preliminary design of railway spur about 8 km and worked on land acquisition

Hebi(40%),

3.8 Mt

about 8 km and worked on land acquisition.

● Gaohe began to build another 6 raw coal silos (Phase 2), capacity of 10,000 tonnes each.

2012 COAL OUTPUT (Mt ROM)

( ),Henan1.2 Mt

OperationProjectOperationProject

POWERCOAL

Summary 1Q12 2Q12Pre-production stage

1.01.2 0.9

0.6

0.2 0.3 0.40.30.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

ySales (Mt) 1.0 1.0ASP (RMB/t) 669 628Revenue (US$ M) 101 101COGS (RMB/t) 377 400EBITDA (US$ M) 50 40

GaoheCV: 6500-8000 Kcal/kg**

HebiCV: 5300-6800 Kcal/kg**

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12HEBI

● Continue to drill 10 exploration drill holes in a new mining area, to check geology and coal quality.

29Note: *Output figures are ROM output (equity basis)

**CV figures are air-dried basis

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2. Coal divisions2. Coal operations

(a) Australia Coal

(b) Indonesia Coal

(c) China Coal

(d) Mongolia Coal

30

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Mongolia Coal: project developmentTSANT UUL PROJECT UPDATE

● Exploration area: 69,000 hectares

MONGOLIA COAL

● Resources (JORC as of August 2011) for Tsant Uul hectares

● Location: South Gobi (approximately 200 km from Gants Mod border checkpoint)

August 2011) for Tsant Uulonly:

Measured: 40.9 MtI di t d 52 9 Mt p )

● Status: Mining license granted until 2041

Indicated: 52.9 MtInferred: 73.3 MtTotal: 167.1 Mt

CAPEX TIMELINE

● Coal type: Thermal coal, CV 6,000 - 6,500 kcal/kg**

PROJECTNAME PROGRESS

CAPEX 2012 – 15 only

(US$m)2012 2013 2014 2015

Tsant Uul Productionstage

[100]

CAPEX PLANSstage

Altai Nuurs Exploration and early stage dev.

[100]Tsant UulCV: 6,000 - 6,500 kcal/kg **

(INDICATIVE ONLY)

CAPEX PLANS CURRENTLY UNDER

REVIEW

31

Note: * Output figures are ROM output (100% basis)

** CV figures are NAR basis, from latest samples

*** Capex for mine development and necessary infrastructure, with own equipment

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Banpu group indicative five-year plan output targets*

INDONESIA COAL (ITM): SALEABLE COAL 100% BASIS

35

AUSTRALIA COAL (CENTENNIAL): ROM EQUITY BASIS

35

25

30Bharinto Jorong

Embalut

Trubaindo

Tandung Mayan

25

30

10

15

20Trubaindo

Indominco10

15

20

Others - West

Springvale (50%)Angus Place (50%)Others - North

0

5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Indominco

0

5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Others - NorthNewstan Ext (100%)

Mandalong (100%)

810

CHINA COAL: ROM EQUITY BASIS MONGOLIA COAL (HUNNU): ROM 100% BASIS

810

0246

2011 2012 2013 2014 20150246

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gaohe (45%)Hebi (40%)

*Disclaimer: These output targets are indicative only and are subject to change. 32

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2. Coal divisions3. Coal marketing

(a) Coal market

(b) Banpu coal sales

33

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2Q 2012 update - seaborne thermal coal market drivers

WEATHER CHINESE DEMAND OTHER DRIVERS

• Downward trend in sentiment, despite global coal trade expanding.

• Uncertainty impacting forecasts due to

• Indonesia normal. Stocks built up.

• Chinese winter/summer normal. Good

• GDP growth declining possibly below announced levels.

• Coal production increased beyond y p gEuropean debt concerns, and GDP and employment levels generally.

• US exports high until end 2012, then unhedged prices vs. cost will impact.

Chinese winter/summer normal. Good rains increase hydro.

• Australia nothing significant.

p ydemand increase.

• Imports in 1H 2012, double 1H 2011.

• Policy uncertainty and level of

• Gas prices support coal demand in Europe but opposite in USA which diverted coal to export.

• 2012 ld th f t 2 1%*

• USA mild 1H, reduces demand. planned stimulation affecting confidence.

• Overall impact – high stock and low domestic price.

• 2012 world growth forecast 2.1%* (Prev. 2.2%**) ; Asian growth forecast 6.0%* (Prev. 6.5%**)

• Uncertainty of rate/timing of Chinese import increase.

*Country Forecast August 2012 from The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2012 as of 16 July,2012**Banpu Macroeconomic Assumptions as of April 2012

34

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Banpu average selling prices in 3Q10Banpu Indonesia ASPs vs thermal coal benchmark prices

BANPU ASP VS BENCHMARK PRICES COMMENTS

Unit: $/t

160

180

200

Monthly BJIQuarterly Banpu Indonesia ASP

ASP held up well in 1Q 2012, but 2Q market starts to cap and reduce prospects.

100

120

140 Continuing pressure from weaker market prices and product mix, impacts ASP and tonnage but not significantly

40

60

80 Banpu remains protected by relatively high ‘sold with price’ status (+81%) and negligible reliance of traders as buyers.

0

20

ar-0

7un

-07

ep-0

7ec

-07

ar-0

8un

-08

ep-0

8ec

-08

ar-0

9un

-09

ep-0

9ec

-09

ar-1

0un

-10

ep-1

0ec

-10

ar-1

1un

-11

ep-1

1ec

-11

ar-1

2un

-12

negligible reliance of traders as buyers.

Also protected by hedge status (+6%), and Centennial’s domestic contract t bilit ith li k f l ll tM

aJu Se

De Ma

Ju Se

De Ma

Ju Se

De Ma

Ju Se

De Ma

Ju Se

De Ma

Ju

ASP 2Q12 $94.05 (-6% QoQ)

BJI* August 9, 2012 $91.85

stability with linkage of sales usually to JPU, or GC Newcastle.

3535* Barlow Jonker Index: benchmark NSW FOB thermal coal index

Page 36: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

China thermal coal market reviewChina thermal coal market review

Unit: RMB

CHINA DOMESTIC COAL PRICES CHINA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS/EXPORTS ANNUALIZED ACTUAL IMPORT 2Q11 - 2Q12 & 3Q12 ESTIMATE

Unit: Mt Unit: Mt

1,000

128

143

116

151

93103

> 5,800 kcal/kg

> 5,500 kcal/kg

> 5,000 kcal/kg ?

840

785800

900

,

73

104

58

93

N t

Net importc.121

700

615

685

515

600

700

18 14

Net import96 Mt

Mt ?

515

400

500

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Est

147 6

2009 2010 2011 2012

Import ExportImport Export

Source: www.sxcoal.com/cn 30 July 2012 Sources: China Coal Report July 2012, Banpu MS&L Estimates

3636

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US shale gas: medium and long term trends

MEDIUM TERM TREND LONG TERM TREND

2012: year of coinciding extremes USA2012: year of coinciding extremes• Cheap shale gas creates excess coal

stocks in the US• High coal prices and very low freight

USA• Increasing share of natural gas

consumption in the local markets• Higher USA growth prospects due to• High coal prices and very low freight

rates allow US to export its coal• Most exports hedged to end 20122013: year of adjustment

• Higher USA growth prospects due to lower energy costs

• Coal industry adjusts by rationalization• Exports have higher share of high sulfur2013: year of adjustment

Atlantic• Re-adjust and cutback traditional US

exports of high quality high cost products

Exports have higher share of high sulfur products

China / Australia• More difficult to extract shale gasexports of high quality, high cost products

• More demand for Russia, Colombia, South Africa to balance sulfur

Pacific

More difficult to extract shale gas reservoirs. Early days.

• Consumption and delivery of pipeline is likely to be delayedPacific

• Significantly reduced Atlantic coal supply• Supply reduced due output cuts

• Wood Mackenzie expects shale gas in China not significant before 2020

37

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US shale gas: limited threats from US coal exports to Asia

LOW US GAS PRICE IS UNSUSTAINABLE US COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES

US$/mmbtu• Domestic gas demand is likely to rise

from additional US petchemexpansions and NGV vehicles 12

13

14US$/mmbtu

• 2011 winter was unusually warm

• Avg breakeven price for shale gas at 8

9

10

11

• Avg. breakeven price for shale gas at $3.8 per mmbtu vs. 1Q low point of $1.9 per mmbtu

5

6

7

8

> US$4/mmbtuWoodmac

• Powder River Basin coal remains competitive to gas and less impacted by cheap gas. Delivered CV-adjusted

t t A i b di t d2

3

4

Central Appalachian coal

Henry Hub natural gas

$by 2013

cost to Asia above discounted Indonesian sub bituminous product. 0

1

2014201320122011201020092008

Source: Wood Mackenzie, EIA, Bloomberg, AWR Lloyd estimates

Powder River Basin coal (PRB)

38

Source: Wood Mackenzie, EIA, Bloomberg, AWR Lloyd estimates

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2. Coal divisions3. Coal marketing

(a) Coal market

(b) Banpu coal sales

39

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Banpu group coal sales outlook analysis: 2012e

COAL SALES* BREAKDOWN BY DESTINATION 2012e (Mt) BANPU GROUP TOTAL GLOBAL COAL SALES* 2012e

2.2 22%3% 4%

China

Italy Others

S KOREA2 8 Mt

CHINA9 5 Mt

ITALY1.4 Mt

2.2

1.9

4.6

6.2 1.5

1.1 22%

19%Australia

JAPAN6.5 Mt

INDIA OTHERSHK

0.6 Mt

2.8 Mt9.5 Mt

TAIWAN3.9 Mt

1.9

1.91.70.42.0 15%

4%

5% JapanIndia

PHILIPPINES1.7 Mt

INDONESIA2 7 Mt

THAILAND1.9 Mt

INDIA2.4 Mt

OTHERS2.1 Mt

6%9%1%6%

4%4%

Taiwan

S KoreaThailand

Philippines

Indonesia

Australia CoalChina Coal

Indonesia Coal Total: 44.0Mt* (Sales from Indonesia are included on 100% basis,

sales from Australia and China are included on equity basis )

2.7 Mt

AUSTRALIA8.5Mt

TaiwanHong Kong

40

* Excluding Mongolia coal

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Indicative 2012 Banpu coal sales pricing status

Unsold

AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL

6%

13%Indexed

Unsold4%

3%IndexedUnsold

81% Fixed58%35%FixedDomestic

Fixed Export

TARGET SALES 2012 (equity basis): c.15 MtAs at 31 July 2012

TARGET SALES 2012: c. 26 MtAs at 31 July 2012As at 31 July 2012

Limited exposure to prevailing market prices

As at 31 July 2012

Mostly insulated from market weakness (including hedged tonnes 87% of sales)

New export parity domestic contracts commenced 1 July, increasing sales certainty and improving domestic (and total sales) ASP

hedged tonnes, 87% of sales)

41

* Contracted tonnage

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4. Power business

42

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Thailand Power: BLCP in 2Q12 (100% basis)Bt. million

Q-Q: 8%Y-Y: 3% 5,026

Q-Q: 18%

Y-Y: 1%

Q-Q: 20%Y-Y: 2%

2,334

1,9882,382

4,8584,672

635

645

548

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Availability Payment (AP)

Q-Q: 62%Y-Y: 9%

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12Total revenue

1 837

768696

FX gain

122

Q-Q: -0.1%Y-Y: 8%

2,245 2,420 2,418

Y Y: 9%1,688

1,137

1,837

426

96% 97% 98%

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12Energy Payment (EP)

Q-Q: 42%Y Y 6%

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

EBIT

-123FX (loss)

-61

Y-Y: 6%2,218

1,659

2,352

Based on Banpu’s 50% interest

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Equity income

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Dispatch (%)2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

EBITDA 43

p

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Thailand Power: Hongsa Project in LaosHONGSA PROJECT PROJECT PROGRESS UPDATES 2Q12

● Construction progress at end 2Q was approx. 20% MAIN ROAD FROM THAI BORDERPOWER PLANT – BOILER

STRUCTURE p g pp(slightly ahead of the schedule)

● Main road from Thai border to the project site was completed since May 2012.

STRUCTURE

● Activities in Power Plant area are focusing on boiler structure and stack construction

● Resettlement houses completed

● Pipeline from water reservoirs to power plant is in progress and will be completed in 2013

POWER PLANT – STACK CONSTRUCTION

PIPELINE FROM WATER RESERVIORS TO POWER PLANT

CAPEX TIMELINE

● COD of first unit will be on June 2015.

PROJECT NAME

CONSTRUCTION PROGRESS

CAPEX ($m)

CAPEX TIMELINE

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

HongsaPower 19.7% 340* 85 168 87

44

Note: *Banpu’s equity injection

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China Power: BIC* in 2Q12 (100% basis)

Sales**

(USD m)

EBITDA

(USD m)

Utilization

(hours)

Power tariff

(RMB/kwh)

Coal price***

(RMB/t)BIC* 2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

LuannanHebei Province

Power 100MW;

Steam 128tph

Lower sales and EBITDA due to decrease in residential h ti i

0.44

6751,75814.510.3

2.61.5

1,361

6771,500

0.44 0.4466710.5

1 4Steam 128tph

(Banpu 100% )heating revenue in non heating season.

ZhengdingL l d

1,981

1.4

Hebei Province

Power 48MW;

Steam 180tph

(Banpu 100%)

Lower sales and EBITDA due to decrease in residential heating revenue in non heating season.

0.40

13.5

3.96809.3

1.8

1,874657

0.38

1,655

6530.417.6

1.3( p ) g

ZoupingShandong Province

Reduction in sales due to lower steam demand has been offset by the

22.8

1 532

939

8861,834 1,726

22.821.4

Power 100MW;

Steam 430tph

(Banpu 70%)

has been offset by the lower coal cost due to drop in coal price, that led the growth in EBITDA.

3.7

1,5320.434.4 0.37

886 8450.45

3.3

Note: *BIC = Banpu Investment China (formerly BPIC), **Unaudited figures, *** Including transportation45

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5. Financial summary

46

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Key external and corporate events

Downgrade 9 Greece passes austerity plan China’sT

Moody’s downgrades of ECB president

EVEN

TS

euro zone nations 

BoT cuts interest rate

to 3%

austerity plan China s disappointing Q1 GDP growth

European elections shockwave

IND

IRE

CT downgrades of

German bank credit ratings

Fears of Greek exit from Euro recede

EU Summit held

ECB president supportive comments for Euro

EXTE

RN

AL

Indonesia exportEC

T

EU Summit held in BrusselChina’s

inflation eases, room for stimulus

Indonesia foreign

ownership limit

Indonesia export tax on minerals

Request for contract review

DIR

E

Australian MRRT and carbon tax commenced

EVEN

TS

18 Jan 11 May

Aug’ 121Q12

10 Aug

Jul’ 122Q12

24 Jul

OR

POR

ATE

Announcement of special Bt 3 dividend to be paid on 10 Feb

• Banpu 2011 results• 2H11 Bt 9 dividend

to be paid on 30 Apr• R&R upgrades

24 Feb

Banpu AGM 2012

Banpu 1Q12 results

5 Apr

Banpu 2Q12 results

Banpu announced cost and capexreduction plan

47

CO

Approved Annual Dividend of 21 Baht/share (incl. special dividend 3 Baht/share)

Approved bond issue Bt20 billion

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Banpu group revenue analysis: coal operationsIndonesia Coal (ITM)

SALES (Mt)

China Coal

SALES (Mt)DomesticExport

Equity basis100% basis DomesticExport

Australia Coal (Centennial)

SALES (Mt) Equity basisDomesticExport

2.3 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.5

3.7 4.1 3.4 3.5 3.3

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

4.7 6.1 6.5 5.2 5.8

5.26.9 7.1

5.8 6.6

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q122Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q122Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (US$/t)

NE

X*

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (US$/t) excl. VAT

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

118 122110 110 N

EX

* 118 122110 110

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (A$/t)**

NE

X* 118 122

110 110NA

SP

97

97 98 103 101 95

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

AS

P

91 96 92107 94

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

N

97

AS

P73 70 77 78 82

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

N

97

REVENUE ($M)

500675 729

575 626

REVENUE ($M)100% basis 100% basisREVENUE (A$M) Equity basis

Note: ITM revenue is consolidated in Banpu income

500

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Note: Hebi and Gaohe revenues are not consolidated in

77 92 81 123 123

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

266 287 261 273 269

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

48

o e e e ue s co so da ed a pu co estatement.

Note: ‘$’ in this presentation denotes US dollar only, otherwise stated *NEX = Newcastle Export Index (formerly Barlow Jonker Index or BJI)

It is relevant but not linked to China Coal’s ASP**Australian GAAP

o e eb a d Gao e e e ues a e o co so da edBanpu income statement.

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Banpu consolidated sales revenues

Bt. millionUSD

USD 947 m

1 281 Power

Bt 28,310 M Bt 29,644 M

913 m

USD 822 m

+5% Q Q

8,3528,2351,239

1,573 1,281

+19% Y –Y Power-19% Q – Q+3% Y - Y

Bt 24,888 M

Coal Australia-1% Q- Q

*Australian GAAP (AUD Million)

273 269

+5% Q – Q

7,918

C l I d i

+4% Y - Y18 * Gain from

forward

8

255255

15,73018,385 20,127

Coal Indonesia

+9% Q – Q+28% Y - YPower

Coal Australia

1Q12 2Q12

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Coal Indonesia

49

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Note: USD exchange rate is the average exchange rate of the corresponding period, Revenue from other is included in Coal.* Under Thai GAAP, this is not included in the revenue.

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Banpu consolidated coal gross margin 2Q12 : 39%

AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL

Indonesia CoalBt million

Indonesia Coal gross margin: 44%

20,000

A t li i 30%

Bt million

A t li i 28%

Thai GAAP Australian GAAPAUD million

0,000

18,268

15,662 Australia gross margin: 30%Australia gross margin: 28%

8,5758 3527,918 8,5758,352

266 26927344%49%

50%

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

28%33%28%

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

30%37%33%

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

50Note: AUD exchange rate – Bt32.87/A$ (as of 30 June 2012)

Coal sales Gross margin

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Banpu consolidated EBITDA and NPATUnit: Bt. million

EBITDA NET PROFIT AFTER TAX

+1% Q – Q

657 477 848

7,109 7,174 7,227 Power

+78% Q-Q+29% Y-YCoal Australia

% Q Q

-2% Q - Q

+2% Y – Y

629

444306 660

2,7853,161

2,734146 187 239

1,502 1,671 1,245Coal - Australia -25% Q-Q-17% Y-Y

2% Q Q-14% Y - Y

Power Coal - China +116% Q-Q-30% Y-Y

+28% Q-Q+64% Y-Y

1,9421,464

1,966

146187

238629

828

Coal - Indonesia +34% Q-Q

+28% Q-Q+63% Y-Y4,804 4,839 4,895

Coal - Indonesia +2% Q-Q+2% Y-Y

Coal - China

-130

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

34% Q Q+1% Y-Y

Coal - Australia

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Coal - China

51Power Coal - Australia Coal - China Coal - Indonesia

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Banpu gearing and foreign exchange structure

DEBT FX STRUCTURE GEARING RATIOS

1.06Net debt / Equity1 (x)

0.140.36

0.16

0.74 0.77

USD Float

THB Fixed19%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2Q12

51%42% 44%

Net market gearing2 (%)

USD Float49%

AUD Fixed

5%

THB Float9% 12%

26%14%

USD Fixed17%

AUD Float2%

5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2Q12

3.35

2.06

Net debt / EBITDA (x)

0.500.86

0.38

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2Q12

TOTAL DEBT: $3 BillionAs of 7 July 2012

2Q12

52Note: 1 Net debt to book value of shareholders' equity

2 Net debt to enterprise value (enterprise value = net debt + market capitalization as at 30 June 2012)

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Appendices

53

Page 54: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Indonesia Coal gross margin 2Q12 : 44%

20,00018,268

15 66215,662

44%49%50%

8,8909,792

8,661

5 3566,6216,400

50%

46%50% 39% 52%50% 45%

5,356

53%53%

52%747 576 62339% 36% 43%

53%53%

52%6681,250 843

52% 46% 44%

1,380 2,121

65%61%

1Q11 1Q12 2Q122Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Indonesia CoalIndominco

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Trubaindo

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Jorong

39% 36% 43%

2Q11 1Q12 2Q12

52%

Kitadin

1Q12 2Q12

TandungM

54Coal sales Gross margin

Indonesia CoalIndominco Trubaindo Jorong Kitadin Mayang

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Banpu group EBITDA breakdown

& holding companies

Unit: $M

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

318 267 233 231

233 235 184 168

Power & New energy65%

AACI OVERHEAD

-7 -2 -5 -4

100%

86 82 78 43 -1 -2 -7Began consolidated in 4Q11

Unit: AUD Mil

66 15 54 75

25-7

50 40151 126 93 79

50%

45%

Gaohe

BLCP

Indominco

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Began consolidated in 4Q11

All figures are 100% basis except for Centennial which is

-4 -4 -1 -2

5 -17 -7 461 65 66 49

40%

40%

Hebi

HONGSA

Trubaindo

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12equity basis

16 44 35 40

BIC*Kitadin

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

4 5 9 3

4 4 3 4

70%

Zouping

2 3 3 3

Zhengding

1 2 3 1

Luannan

1 3 4 1

Jorong

3Q Q Q Q3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

55Note: all ownership 100% unless otherwise shown.*BIC = Banpu Investment China (formerly BPIC) Consolidated NOT consolidated

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Page 56: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Banpu group net debt breakdown

& holding

2,051 2,403 2,419 2,572 Unit: $M

companies

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL CHINA COAL MONGOLIA COAL

Gaohe Hebi

100% 65% 45% 40% 100%

254 269 265 251

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

379 323 415 353-579 -612 -771 -532

-38 -29 -9 -1 -3 -9 -16Unit: AUD Mil

THAILAND POWER LAOS POWER CHINA POWER

HONGSABLCP BIC*

50% 40% 100%

460 538 609 703

Consolidated

NOT consolidated

Net debt

Net cash3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

680 700 510 422 -3

21

-11 -5

56Note: all ownership 100% unless otherwise shown.*BIC = Banpu Investment China (formerly BPIC)

Net cash

Page 57: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Banpu consolidated : operating profit

Units: Bt. million 2Q12 QoQ% YoY%

5% 19%Total sales revenues*

1Q12

28,310

2Q11

24,88829,644

Sales revenues – Power (BIC)Cost of sales

Sales revenues – Coal 6% 20%-19% 3%1,573

(16,314)

26,6231,239

(14,735)

23,5871,281

(18,359)

28,256

Gross profit* -6% 11%Gross profit - Coal -5% 11%Gross profit – Power (BIC) -33% 45%

11,99611,689

277

10,15210,004

127

11,28511,070

185

GPMGross profit Power (BIC)

GPM P (BIC)GPM - Coal

33% 45%42%277

%44%

41%

%42%

38%85

%39%

GPM – Power (BIC) 18% 10%14%

Note: * Including other business 57

Page 58: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Banpu consolidated: operating profit

Units: Bt. million

Gross profit -6% 11%GPM

2Q12 QoQ% YoY%

11,99642%

1Q12

10,15241%

2Q11

11,28538%GPM

SG&ARoyaltyIncome from associates

42%(3,421)(2,753)

567

41%(2,769)(2,428)

800

38%(3,539)(2,964)1 052

Other income

EBIT -1% 2%Other expenses - Operations

272

5,764

567

(898)279

5,614

800

(421)297

5,724

1,052

(406)1% 2%

EBITDA 1% 2%

EBIT - Coal -8% -2%EBIT - Power 111% 39%

5,764

7,174

5,400364

5,614

7,109

5,063551

5,724

7,227

4,957767

EBITDA 1% 2%EBITDA - Coal -5% -1%EBITDA - Power 78% 29%

7,1746,697

477

7,1096,452

657

7,2276,379

848

58

Page 59: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Banpu consolidated : net profit

Q 1Q12Units: Bt. million

EBITInterest expenses

YoY%2Q12 QoQ%

-1% 2%(824)

1Q12

5,764(770)

2Q11

5,614(860)

5,724Interest expensesFinancial expensesIncome tax (core business)Minorities

(824)(88)

(1,724)(1 193)

(770)(82)

(1,216)(1 180)

(860)(85)

(1,649)(1 688)Minorities

Net profit before extra items

Non-recurring items*

-39%-25%(1,193)1,934

282

(1,180)2,365(110)

(1,688)1,4421,103

Net profit before FX 13%

FX translationsNet profit -14%

15%

-2%

2,216569

2,785

2,255906

3,161

2,545189

2,734Net profit 14%

EPS (Bt/share)

2%2,78510.25

3,16111.63

2,73410.06

Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses

59

Page 60: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Centennial : Income Statement

Units: Bt million (THAI GAAP) 2Q12 QoQ% YoY%1Q12 2Q11

Cost of sales

-6%Sales revenue

Sales volume (k tonnes)

-1%-11%

4%(5,593)

3,4968,352

(5,693)

3,6607,918

(5,899)

3,2748,235

Gross profit -15%GPM SG&A 5%

5%

24%

( )

2,75933%

(1,439)

( )

2,22528%

(1,223)

( )

2,33628%

(1,518)RoyaltySG&A 5%

0%

-60%EBITOther income 20%

24%6%

-39%17%

(577)(1,439)

81067

(542)(1,223)

52969

(576)(1,518)

32381

60%EBITInterest expensesFinancial expensesGain (loss) on exchange rate

39%810(202)(39)113

529(171)(34)66

323(188)(38)

(111)Gain (loss) on exchange rate

Corporate income tax

N t fit

Gain (loss) on derivative 113

-582

66

(38)640

(111)

-246

60

Net profit -82% -77%1,264 992233

Page 61: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Banpu group coal sales 2Q12

COAL SALES BREAKDOWN BY DESTINATION 2Q12 (Mt) BANPU GROUP TOTAL GLOBAL COAL SALES 2Q12

%14%3%

2%Australia China

ItalyOthers

21%14%

S KOREA1 1 Mt

CHINA2.2 Mt

ITALY0.3 Mt

0.6

1 0

1.60.60.5

0.6

15%

5%

4%

8%

JapanPhilippines

IndiaJAPAN1.6 Mt

INDIA OTHERSHK

0.2 Mt

1.1 Mt

TAIWAN0.8 Mt

1.0

0.40.4

10%7%2%

7%

5%

S Korea

Thailand

Indonesia

PHILIPPINES0.5 Mt

THAILAND0.5 Mt

INDIA0.9 Mt

OTHERS0.2 Mt

INDONESIA0 8 Mt

Total: 10.4Mt (Sales from Indonesia are included on 100% basis,

sales from Australia and China are included on equity basis )Australia CoalChina Coal

Indonesia Coal

TaiwanHong Kong

AUSTRALIA1.5 Mt

0.8 Mt

61

Page 62: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Centennial: quarterly equity ROM output

3.9

4.6

3.9 4.13 7 3.9

4 04.55.0

Total equity ROM (Mt)ACTUAL PLANNED (INDICATIVE ONLY)

2.41.1

2.3

2.2 1.62.2 1.6 1.9

2.93.5 3.7

2.02.53.03.54.0

NO

RTH

ER

N

1.5 1.82.3

1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.0

0.00.51.01.5

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

WE

STE

RN

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

5 wks

10 wks

6 wks 7 wks 3 2

Normal production Bolt-up/commissioning LW relocation

62Note: Bar width is indicative of the equity production contributions to Centennial

Page 63: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

US shale gas: limited threats from US coal exports to Asia

US COAL EXPORTS TO ASIA IS LIMITED US COAL EXPORT BREAKDOWN (Mt)

• Majority of additional export went to Europe and North America.

335

34

40

1Q12YoY• In 1Q12, YoY growth for coal exports

to Asia actually declined

• Challenging economics for export to2

23Others

7

YoY-0.3 Mt (-1.2 Mt)**QoQ+0.5 Mt(+2.0 Mt)**

• Challenging economics for export to Asia over LT

• High FOB cost – c.U$70/t for Powder 262

7

1

20

AfricaAsia 1

** annualised

High FOB cost c.U$70/t for Powder River Basin coal (5,000 kcal/kg with low sulfur)

139 8

18

26

4

1

1 1

Asia

Europe

• But some Illinois Basin + Pittsburg 8 seam coals competitive, depending on freight and options in Atlantic

201020092008 1Q12 annualised

2011

Source: Wood Mackenzie, EIA, Bloomberg, AWR Lloyd estimates

63

Page 64: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

US shale gas: limited threats from US coal exports to Asia

Port capacity

155149141

TOTAL US COAL PORT CAPACITY(Mt)

• Future expansions need to also address political and permit issuesPort capacity

201320122011141414Port capacity

WEST COAST (Mt)

Northern LigniteLow sulfur

address political and permit issues

22 24 25Baltimore919088

201320122011EAST COAST(Mt)

• Potential coal export route to Asia

3,333 – 3,889 kcal/kgNorth PRBLow sulfur4,833 – 5,278 kcal/kg

S. WyomingLow-Mid sulfur

South PRBVery low sulfur4,333 – 4,889 kcal/kg

Illinois basin

Hamton Road

2013

66

2012

66

2011

66route to Asia Low-Mid sulfur

5,000 – 6,667 kcal/kg

Rocky mountain regionLow sulfur4,444 – 6,667 kcal/kg

Central AppalachianLow to Mid6,667+ kcal/kg

High sulfur6,111+ kcal/kg

Four cornersLow to mid sulfur

Gulf ligniteLow to mid sulfur3,333 – 4,444 kcal/kg

4,722 – 6,667 kcal/kg

14 164616

39

OthMobile

50

34

US GULF (Mt)OperatingOperating w/ planned expansionPl d

642012

30

2011

25 Others

2013

34Planned

Source: Platts, AWR Lloyd estimates

Page 65: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Focus: reducing costs in Indonesia in 2012 (cont’d)

ILLUSTRATIVE MINE PLAN CHANGE (INDOMINCO)

• At Indominco mine plan can be changed to reduce strip

ORIGINAL PLANSR 13.2

NEW PLANSR 12.6

At Indominco mine plan can be changed to reduce strip ratio without affecting output target and coal quality

• Tonnage can be made up from mining other sections of existing pits with lower strip ratios

• Limited reserves impact within next two years

OVERBURDEN

OVERBURDEN

COAL SEAM COAL SEAM

65

Page 66: INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE · INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE ... • Diverse high CV coal portfolio with integrated logistics and blending: resilient to weak coal prices ... Dec10 Apr11

Hongsa: target revenue and EBITDA structure

6%Viable O&M

13 yrs 25 yrsREVENUE

STRUCTURE

I di ti t t d

Energy Payment

38%Fuel payment

O&M Indicative targeted revenue range (nominal)

Indicative targeted EBITDA range (nominal)

Availability Payment 56%

NOTE: FIGURES SHOWN ARE ON 100% BASIS

66ILLUSTRATIVE & INDICATIVE ONLY