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Transcript of Investment Outlook - AXYS Group · Investment Outlook . ... SWAN retreated further ... which will...
Fast Track Forward to
Trades & Movements by Sector Theme of the Week
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
11.60
WoW Movements
NMHL
Foreign Participation
Earnings:
Market Indices
▲
Laggers
-3.9 3.4RHT
Fund NAVs
MK
Pref Shares
[Rs M]11.5
110.50
▲USD/MUR
Δ WoW[Rs]
916.790.19
4.20
Latest
SBM
-3.3
MDIT
[Rs]
0.89%
Leaders
LOTO
10.35
26.30
ROGE
[%]
VEM
ETFs/Commodities
29.00
1Yr T-Bill
-3.6 429
COND — INVH
Share of TMT
Forex Mkt Watch
Corporate Bonds
TPL ALTEO
BoM Interventions
1.9%
Foreign participation plummeted with TMT at itslowest since Christmas
Selling pressures the bourse had been under forweeks eased off
Indices experienced their strongest unilateralWoW gains since late July
Trading was significantly less skewed towards ahandful of stocks
We peer at Construction & Property sectors onPg3
0.06
3.10
3.3 10.60
Prices & Spot Rates
20,148 MCBCIEL
361350
[# k]
602
Investment Outlook23-Oct-2015
Equity Equity
5.90 2.8
TERRA
28.00ROGE
3.6
[%]Most
Active
▲ALEX-20
16.0
Volume
COND — INVH
-6.6
Latest
-4.4
3.20
Fixed Income
Most Active
ValueΔ WoW
36.218.07 0.54%
Mkt Summary
MFD
31.1SBM
6.3
Currency
Weekly Prices:
9.9
FIN — CONS Sov./Interbank Rates
Spot Rates
5.5
BLFE
Mkt Comm/Divs
FIN — CONS
News Snippets
NMHL(P) NMHLROGE
900
950
1,000
1,050
Inde
x [p
ts]
-0
4
8
12
16
Δ% in
USD
/MU
R si
nce
30-S
ep-1
4
1.00
1.75
2.50
3.25
1Yr-
GM
TB [%
]
40%
26%
14%
7% 5%
8% FIN
MSCH
T&L
INVH
COND
Others
-0.0
-1.7
1.0 0.8
0.4
FIN MSCH T&L INVH COND
WoW
Chn
age
[%]
1
Market Indices
MC [Rs bn] ▲ ▲Δ MC [%] ▲ ▲TO [Rs M] ▼ ▼FP [%] ▼ ▼NFP [Rs M] ▲ ▲PER [x] ▲ ▲DY [%] ▲ ▼PBV [x] ▲ ▲ROE [%] ▲ ▼
L HALCAPEX-12 ▲ALEX-20 ▲SEMSI ▲SEMDEX ▲S&P Pan Africa* ▼MSCI Frontier* ▲MSCI World* ▲S&P 500* ▲ESTX Eur 50* ▲FTSE 100* ▲Nikkei 225 ▲MSCI Emerging* ▼S&P Asia 50* ▼Sensex* ▲
Foreign Participation
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
0.2%
23-Oct
-11.3%96.9
PBVAs at
1 Wk YTD
-1.3% 5.7%
-9.8% -12.2%
0.27% -15.0% -22.3%0.81% -1.8% 2.3%1.42%
518.62
1,859.50
520.04
0.40% -9.0%
17.9
Val YoY
916.79
1,689.33
162.911,871.15 0.63%
0.890.91
121.1
15.017.0
23-Oct-15
5.2
-16.0
5.8Key:MC = Mkt Cap.; Δ MC = Change in Mkt Cap,; TO =Turnover; FP = Foreign Participation; NFP = Net ForeignPurchases; PER = Price-Earnings Ratio; DY = Div. Yield;PBV = Price-Book (Net Asset Value) Ratio; ROE = Returnon Equity.
‒ 52Wk ‒Indices
-19.5
3.91
71.7
0.89
86.118.7
-1.57%
86.1
Week Ended
-12.1%
16-Oct1,263.57
Investment Outlook
-2.7%1.63%15.0
167.70.90.4
23-Oct-2015
267.9All SEM Liquid 20
3.91 0.87-12.1%
0.87
15.9
-10.9% -13.6%1,268.60
908.72
Change
PER DY
0.89%
3.37
4.06 1.3610.1
1.66
96.2997.86 82.6
160.35
2,023.86
27,288
18.8
27,010
19.612.510.121.5
2.55 2.15
3.53% 6.6%
-0.4%
18.31,675.77
6,338.67
18.3
13.2 3.773.51
23.2
2.12 2.763.44 1.554.08 1.83
-12.6%-0.27% -3.4% -0.8%
Activity Spread
3,448.381.38
11.5%0.59%
3,353.11-2.6% 0.1%
18,825858.17
2.92% 7.9%
2.7% 1.38
2.951.57
3.061.03% 2.95
3,238.812,052.51
18,292864.73
6,376.28
3,457.63-0.76% -10.1%
1.30
Net Flows
23.9%
* Previous day's closing prices
-12 -11
1 3 2
SBM MCB CIEL ROGE ALTEO
Net
For
eign
pur
chas
es [R
s m]
95
110
125
140
Indi
ces
reba
sed
to 1
00 o
n 3
0-Se
p-20
12
SEM-SI MSCI FM ALEX-20 ALCAPEX-12
33%
30%
10%
8%
5%
14% SBM
MCB
CIEL
ROGE
ALTEO
2
Investment Outlook 23-Oct-2015
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947 Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
Summary & Highlights
Shifting Sentiment? Things were different on the local market this week. Foreign
participation plummeted from a well-above average 60% last
week to a well-below average 16% this week. Consequently,
the alleviation of selling pressures the bourse had been under
for weeks, allowed indices to experienced their strongest
unilateral WoW gains {ALEX 20 (+0.9%), ALCAPEX 12 (+0.4%) &
SEMDEX (+0.6%)} since late July. Trading was significantly less
skewed towards a handful of stocks; however, weekly TMT at
121M stood at its lowest since Christmas.
Financial
Trading on the banks was in-line with their respective share of
market caps: MCB [26%] at a higher Rs209.50 (+2.0%) and SBM
[13%] – which traded between (±0%) and 80cts (+1.2%) 79cts
but overwhelmingly at its closing price of (±0%) – 79cts
continued to experience some foreign selling but at a
substantially lower rate. Insurer, MEI plunged to 2Yr-Low Rs96
(-2.0%) in-line with recent impairments while illiquid SWAN
retreated further from recent record levels to 11Wk-Low
Rs429.50 (-1.7%).
Travel & Leisure
NMHL recouped its mid-week losses to finish unaltered WoW
at (±0%) while NMHL(P) traded below its par value Rs18
resulting in a DY of 6.23% (+23bps) and an expected YTM of
11.7% at first conversion. Similarly, LUX recouped 50cts to
Rs57.75 as bids piled up while SUN fell by the same quantum to
Rs36.25 in late trading on Friday. CHSL was appreciably traded
at a flat while parent company HTLS slid to Rs36.75 (-Rs36
0.8%). Biz. Hotel operator TPL also improved to Rs5.90 (+2.8%).
This week’s star performer, MK, soared to 10Wk-High Rs11.90
(+11%) intraday on Thursday but eased off to Rs11.60 (+11.5%)
by week’s end following the disclosure of the Govt.’s plan to
develop a SIN-MRU air corridor to ferry both goods and
passengers more effectively between East-Asia and East-Africa.
In stark contrast, LOTO – as retail investors continue to dump
the stock as a direct consequence of Government policies
towards gaming – bottomed out at new record low Rs3 (-9.6%)
mid-week but recouped part of its losses Rs3.10 (-6.6%).
Multi-Sector Conglomerates/Holdings
Lest for a few exceptions: OMNI which rebounded to Rs68
(+1.1%), HML which weakened further to 5½Yr-Low Rs95.50 (-
3.0%) and GAMMA at Rs25 (-0.4%); MSCH were atypically
active throughout the week. ROGE [8%] recovered from recent
plunge on large vols., trading at VWAP Rs27.35 (+0.9%) and
closing at Rs28 (+3.3%). TERRA [5%] – which was exchanged at
VWAP Rs28.05 (+0.2%) – recorded its strongest 1-day gain
(+2.8%) since Feb on Friday with bids at Rs29 (+3.6%). IBL
edged lower to Rs109 (-0.5%) and MEDL to Rs62.50 (-0.8%)
while ALTEO edged up to Rs34.20 (+0.6%). EUDC at (±0%) Rs15
and UTIN at (±0%) remained the same. Rs13.65
Consumer Staples | Discretionary
VEM [3%] which tumbled to 4¾Yr-Low Rs110.50 (-2.2%) and
CTL at Rs39.75 (-0.1%) were the most active consumer stocks.
Illiquids fell sharply: LFL to 6Wk-Low Rs24.50 (-2.0%), VITAL to
2Yr-Low Rs48 (-2.0%), and RHT to 2¾Yr-Low Rs26.30 (-4.4%).
Rarely traded LMLC(P) traded with a slightly lower DY of 6.41 (-
2bps). SODIA hovered between and 59cts (+1.7%) closing 58cts
at the higher bound which represents a gross 5.1% upside to its
expected wind up price.
Materials | Property | Industrials
Materials counters closed in red: UBP to 7Mth-Low Rs77 (-
1.3%), and sister concerns BYCH & CHEM to respective Rs8 (-
0.7%) and 11Mth-Low Rs20.25 (-3.1%). ASCE – whose Div.
policy on Class B shares was changed from 32% of total to
‘board discretion’ – was atypically active at (±0%) and Rs13.40
its major shareholder, ENLL, inched infinitesimally higher to
Rs47 (+0.1%). BLFE improved to Rs4.20 (+3.4%) while CAUD
dropped to Rs1.24 (-3.1%). Freeport operator MFD registered a
steep drop to 16Mth-Low Rs10.35 (-3.3%).
Investment Holdings
CIEL – which traded at VWAP Rs6.78 (+0.3%) but closed
unaltered WoW at (±0%) – was expectedly the most Rs6.76
exchanged INVH counter. MDIT rebounded from recent lows to
Rs4.98 (+1.6%) while NITL slid to Rs40.10 (-2.2%). FIDES was
appreciably traded at 6Yr-Low Rs64 (-1.2%) but finished at
Rs64.50 (-0.4%). ENL(P) – ENL Group’s non-voting share – and
subsidiary ENIT improved to respective Rs26.50 (+1.9%) and
Rs46.50 (+1.1%) albeit on relatively thin vols.
3
Market Announcements
News Snippets
Dividend Declarations
COMPANY
MCB ▲ALPL ▲NFPL ▲
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
4.25 3.10 37.1% 29-Sep-15 12-Nov-15 17-Dec-15 Fin 20.03 N/A 12-Oct-15 Int ?
Freq. p.a.Previous
Investment Outlook23-Oct-2015
Pay DateDeclarationProperties
TypeDiv/Div Ex-Div.ChangeDividend Key Dates
Current
0.03 N/A 23-Oct-15 10-Nov-15 16-Nov-15 Fin ?
The Government's emphasis on "smart city" development is likely to alleviate the Construction sector's – in recession since Q4-12 – woes as well as thoseof the slowing – in real terms since Q4-12 – Property sector. Call us blasé if you wish, as we are not entirely convinced – at present – that there will besufficient domestic demand to mop up the additional upcoming supply given the apparent stagnation of Residential and Office segments.
Real GDP Growth [%]Nominal GDP [Rs bn]
Real
Est
ate
Cons
truc
tion
Ascencia Ltd (ASCE)At its special shareholder meeting, shareholders approved the issue of new Class A shares, Convertible Non-Voting Preference Shares, and Redeemablesbonds to be placed as determined by the board in bundles worth ~Rs1M. Shareholders also approved a change in dividend policy for Class B shareholderswhich will now be determined by the board rather than being 32% of total dividends declared.
Delta Africa Property Holdings Ltd (DELP)DELP will acquire from ROCK shares in two Zambian malls in Ndola and Kitwe for $21.6M representing 50% of the malls which have been valued at $91.2M.The purchase will be financed through private placements and/or bank loans. DELP believes this is a unique opportunity to enter a new market. With along-term hold strategy for malls, DELP has priced in risks associated with the short-term closure of mines. The expected gross rental yield stands at 8.4%and PAT during FY16 at $1M.
New Frontier Properties Ltd (NFPL)NFPL has chosen to enter the UK-Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) regime effective on Oct 21st 2015. Subsequently, the company’s management andcontrol have been transferred to the UK. Changes to its board of directors and company constitution have also been made.
3 3 4
4
4
5 5
5
75 78
85
89
95
101
107
99
Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1 -14 Q1 -15
Property
GDP
4
6
5
2
4 3 4
3 3
2
4
2
3 3 3
2
Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1 -14 Q1 -15
GDP Property
4
5
5
6 5
4
4 4
75 78
85
89 95
101
107
99
Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1 -14 Q1 -15
Construction
GDP
7
23
5
2
-9
-19
-9 -5
4 6 5 2 4 3 4 3
Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1 -14 Q1 -15
Construction GDP
4
Stock Movements — FIN, T&L, MSCH, & CONS
MCB ▲ ASBM ▬ HCIM ▲FINC ▼MEI ▼MUA ▬SWAN ▼SWANL ▬
NMHL ▬ HLUX ▲ ASUN ▼ HCHSL ▬HTLS ▼TPL ▲SCT ▬MOLI ▬MK ▲LOTO ▼ASL ▲
ALTEO ▲TERRA ▲OMNI ▲MEDL ▼IBL ▼ROGE ▲HML ▼GAMMA ▼EUDC ▬UTIN ▬
INNO ▬MOR ▼PBL ▬PHIN ▬QBL ▬VITAL ▼UNSE ▬CSE ▬SODIA ▲LFL ▼LMLC ▬MIL ▬SAIL ▬MCOS ▬GOLI ▬CMPL ▬
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
24.50
— — 0.4
923.00
14.700.0%
3.4—
14.700.03
-5.7%
0.0%0.0
—
9.0
0.014.70
19.95 -5.2%
—
0.3
-25.0%-39.6%-20.5%
13.65
-2.0%28.00
-19.7%
3.6% 0.3%
0.03
168.2%
4.3%
-30.6%
48.00
-9.7%
149.00
101.000.59
19.95923.00
-8.3%
0.0
56.00 6.7%
250.00
10.9
4.914.2
—
7.68
15.00
34.00
13.842.00
—
55.1%
-6.7%
45.10
7.68
38.00
45.10
250.00
1.5%
0.3
2.2
10.40 11.20 0.8-72.2%
2.3
3.02.6
-4.9%
28.05
25.10
400.00
Investment Outlook
23-Oct ROE31.1
7.848.5-19.4%
L ‒ 52Wk ‒ H
8.9
3.3%0.9-20.0% 10.2
5.3
68.00
41.80
36.00
11.60
6.0041.80
3.2
6.3
7.84
1.4
18.00
— —
3.3241.80
1.3
29.00 -12.1%
-13.5%
3.8
96.253.4
1,000
5.90
36.00
34.20 34.10
0.0
2.0%5.5
5.7436.75
0.0%
Change16-Oct
SecurityYoY
0.0%-34.6%
36.9%
18.55
1,000
VWAP YTD
23-Oct-2015
Fina
ncia
lTr
avel
& L
eisu
re
PER
57.75
0.0
17.95
429.75
7.7%
Week Ended
18.70
-19.5%
18.50
36.25
0.79
37.05
24.8
3.8
2.0
0.1
-1.1%
20.576.3%0.4
10%—
5.1
-0.5%
5.2-54.1% 6.0
36.75
—
109.50
25.00
28.00
0.6
400.0026.50
-12.8%
—
3.4-53.3%
2.8 2.8
10.0
67.50
3.19
15.0013.65
27.35
25.00
109.0027.10
62.50
—
M.S
ecto
r Con
glom
erat
e/Ho
ldin
g
-24.8%
19.998.50
—
42.003.10
109.00
95.50
41.80
-14.0%-17.4%
-17.9%
22.5
63.00
32.9
3.3
6.00
400.00
28.0% —
26.30
67.25 0.6
Cons
umer
Sta
ples
8.0
0.0
0.4 -0.7%
1.7—
2.856.00
149.0011.7
19.9056.00
—
13.65
101.00
4.714.2 6.0—
6.5 4.9
-24.0%
28.0%
4.117.0
6.3
126.9%
83.6%
12.9
62.4
49.00
250.00
26.30
25.000.58
38.00
-0.7%24.50
29.5
—
0.58
0.2
2.3
23.0%
7.0
9.6
149.25 0.1
15.00 1.1
-25.7%
12.20.6
14.510.60.0
7.2—
2.8
—0.2
1.0
0.0
0.048.0038.00
0.1
45.10
7.68
1.138.1
62.50 0.8
2.3
0.2
0.9%1.8
101.00
95.50
— 15.8
0.2%
-4.0% 1.4
—
18.7%5.3
1.5
13% 0.8
0.4
0.6
—
1.2
10.3—
—
6.9
2.3
14.6
0.6
0.5
13.9
1.5
4.8
0.70.5
43.1 3.70.4
2.1
1.9
1.0
1.9—
13.310.0
4.5
0.6
—
1.8
— — 0.8
0.0
12.1 10.3—
2.0-34.1%
0.0
0.8
—
-17.8%
0.5 -70.2%
5.90 0.0— 2.1—
-21.3%
-35.9% -45.2% —
3.0
-17.9%
9.9
-21.2%
9.4
85.6
—
92.4%
—
0.4
-2.6%
9.43.7
-16.3%
2.8— -19.4%
0.20.4
12.9%
4.3%
15.5—
2.2
358.0
-6.4%
28.2%12.1
-14.6%
-11.2%
1.7
17.4-4.4%
— 0.5
30.6
1.6
1.0
4.20.3
-16.4%
0.7
117.1
22.6%
-8.0%
36.4535.6
-38.5%
66.00
1.446.0
66.00
2.24.6%
—
1.5
36.00
-2.2%
—
-32.3%1.457.25
2.8
0.2
0.626.0
429.5066.00
18.00
1.819.7-5.3%
23-Oct-15
15.9
As atVal.
4.0 1.8-9.5%0.616.0
9.1
7.8028.5
99.00
209.256.3
205.500.79
PBV
0.91.1-20.6% -12.4%
437.00
20.83.3
8.7209.50
96.00
DY
0.79
0.5
57.75
15.6%
1.1
36.75 1.0
6.60.6
5
Stock Movements — COND, PROP, GBL1, MAT, IND, ENGY, HLTH, COMM & INVH
CTL ▼VEM ▼ENLC ▬ABC ▬RHT ▼UBS ▬ACC ▬MSIL ▬ENLL ▲ASCE ▬ASCE(B) ▬BLFE ▲CAUD ▼CIMO ▬NOVUS ▬APL ▬COVI ▬UTDL ▬ROCK ▬SAREF ▬ALPL ▬DELP ▬GFP ▬NFPL ▬UBP ▼MCFI ▬CHEM ▼BYCH ▼GAZ ▬PIM ▬PCCL ▬MFD ▼ AFORT ▬CARGO ▬
Eng
SHUMBA ▬
Hlth MASC ▬
Com
BTEL ▬CIEL ▬MDIT ▲POLI ▬NITL ▼PAD ▬BMHL ▬ENL(P) ▲ENIT ▲FIDES ▼DALE ▬
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
6.90 6.90 — — -13.6% -16.9% 15.7 6.4 0.8 4.9
0.0 -17.8% -19.0%1.2
— 1.8
-16.7%
27.50 0.2 3.8%
16.30.5
26.40
2.4
1.43.3
-9.4% -8.2%
1.34.4-8.1%
2.1 -9.3%
77.1
0.7 2.6
3.1
0.5
95.000.1% 26.227.50 27.50
13.8%— 13.8%64.00 1.4
3.20.0%26.00
46.35 0.1 -0.6%
4.0
-2.5% 82.5 2.6
11.9
2.80 —
0.5
— 48.164.50 0.4
2.80 8.364.75
1.0%
21.00
27.4
-14.0% -18.5%
30.00 — —0.10 — — 2.20
—
—
0.6 1.3
1.314.6
1.8
—
5.96.7
0.9
0.60.595.00 95.00 0.8
4.9
—
0.0%
11.1
41.00
70.00
6.76 6.76
40.10
10.35
0.0% 18.6
4.98
10.70 10.35
6.76
18.1% 20.8—
-82.1%
4.904.1
40.100.06.76
6.78 -6.6% -9.0%
—
18.8
Indu
stria
lIn
vest
men
t Hol
ding
-20.7% -23.0%
3.046.50 46.00
—
0.1
Mat
eria
ls
0.1 -12.5% -12.5%
— 37.8%
— — -9.6% -2.8%
-6.9%
15.5
—
70.00
4.97
— 1.2% 3.0%
— 0.10
8.50
— -1.9%
0.7 22.6%1.6
0.6
10.40
21.00 26.5
GBL
1 Pr
oper
ty
4.0%
4.1
6.4
44.3
1.2
77.00 78.00
-10.0%
155.50
8.50 — — -85.7%
155.50 154.2530.00
0.0
17.6-11.1%
-22.3%
50.00 50.00
—
1.0
1.24
-22.2%10.40
0.6923.8
14.00 —
26.50
2.4 27.0
—
0.0
0.07.00
—
20.25 -7.7% 15.1 5.4 1.2-12.0%
0.08
2.17
1.10
0.4195.4
1.0
—
10.407.00 —
— 0.3
76.00—
0.0% N/A 45.0 — 2.2
—
3.937.017.1
6.8
-9.9% 7.8
—
1.5
2.7
—
2.5
7,338
—
—
0.0
0.8
— 0.0
-3.0%
4.13
4.4%
0.88.8
1.28
1.75
7.0076.00
4.20 4.06
— 0.0%-3.9% -0.8%1.24
423.00
11.8%76.00
10.4%18.2
0.4
4.9
4.5 0.4
1.10
2.17
15.4
-26.3%
N/A
0.2
3.6— 12.6% 25.1%
—
4.9
0.8
0.5
0.93.2 0.5
5.2
— —
-3.2%
0.0
19.45
2.81.0 13.8%
39.6%11.5%
2.6 0.6
4.6
2.0
1.9—
3.2
18.6
23-Oct-15Change As at
5.8 6.3 1.0 17.230.6
0.8 —
YTD YoY PER DY16-Oct
Investment Outlook23-Oct-2015
SecurityWeek Ended
L ‒ 52Wk ‒ H 23-Oct PBV ROE
0.0 -33.3% -32.3% — 8.8
0.0
— — 24.6%
1.0
— 1.2
-2.0%
2.710.4%
1.20 — — 97.7%30.1 7.1
-16.0%8.2
8.00 8.06 —
-6.9%
7.84
21.00 0.1
6.76
1.6
0.0
10.2
N/A0.08 — —
2.3
—
0.8 4.3
0.3 2.1
0.9 —
0.7-0.6%1.20 — 2.5
2.20
4.8
0.3
1.5
20.20
0.9%77.00—
1.4
4.3
—
-16.7%
5.50 5.50 —
0.2
2.12.6
2.3
—
9.7 6.1 1.3 13.868.8 1.6
20.90
2.5
1.75 — — 2.9%
N/A
4.4—
94.00 94.00 93.75
VWAP Val.
5.80.5
27.5032.30
-8.6%
-14.7%-24.2% -11.0%
31.5046.95
—
2.7
8.915.7
11.726.30
—
31.50
39.75 39.804.2 -19.3% -18.8%
39.75 1.6 6.7% 8.7%
13.40 13.4047.00
-15.0%-15.0%-5.5%
19.45 19.45—
153.75 153.75
80.000.0
110.50
Prop
erty
—
423.00
26.30—
115.00 112.00
47.00 2.0
80.00
31.50 -2.7% 8.0
0.1 -4.3%
-5.5%
-2.7% -3.3%
14.00
——32.30
13.40
Cons
umer
Dis
cret
iona
ry
2.416.1
-37.9%
0.7
6
Results for Financial Year ended Jun 30th 2015 — FIN, T&L, MSCH, CONS & ENGY
Result comments
MCB ▲
FINC ▼
MEI ▼
LUX ▲
SUN ▲
TPL ▼
ALTEO ▲
MEDL ▼
IBL ▲
ROGE ▲
EUDC ▼
UTIN ▲
INNO ▲
MOR ▲
PBL ▲
PHIN ▲
SODIA ▲
LFL ▲
LMLC ▲
Engy
SHUMBA ▼
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
1.41 0.65 116Org. growth in Hospitality (+77%), Logistics (+19%), & RE/Agri foll. land sales; while Fin. & Prop.clusters grew fr acquisitions. Aviatn affected by loss of rep. of select East African airlines.
Although turnover decreased to Rs1.22bn due to lower retail prices, edible oils op. profits werestable at Rs24M. PAT boost stemmed from MCM and other operations.
39
In-line with increased sales vol. (+4%), local rev grew by 4.7% to Rs4.57bn coupled with slightimprovement in op. margins from 8.4% to 8.9% while losses in Reunion deteriorated to Rs20M.
0.83.15
PBL's holding company. Please see note above.
120
17.07
5.55
0.05
* Adj for non-recurrent items, unrealised fair value gains, and discontinued operations
3.74
54
-1.23 -0.98 -26All Segments fared worse except for Property (+4%). Agri due to sugar price ↓, Leisure due to roomrate ↓ & Casela upgrades. Education seg. also recorded steeper losses.
7.86 6.69 17Slim Rev. ↑ in all sectors except Seafood (+25%). Consumer (Retail + Seafd) PAT ↑ ~ 27%, while Eng.depressed due to weak construction. Fin sector hurt by MEI's imp & Gabon written-off.
1.02
1.24
3.18
Invmt (+34%), Rental (+7%), and Distillery (+9.0%) all improved, but Comm losses ↑ foll. IDM's lossof JWalker + ↓ rates @ hotel → PAT of Rs148M (-5%).
Turnover fell by just Rs9M to Rs571M; however closure and refurbishment costs of LabourdonnaisHotel resulted in a Rs44M in op. profits to Rs25M.
Mtius Sugar: Rev ↓ Rs1.9bn (-17%) → ↑ losses of Rs217M; TPC Rev (+11%) but PAT flat ; ↑ coal use@ const. Rev → Engy PAT ↓ to Rs78M. ↑ Prop. sales key PAT booster. (Rs67M v/s -Rs115M).0.75
UTIN does not conso. investee P&L which it treats as invmt portfolio. FV Gains on pfolio ↑ 26% toRs228m driven by Hospitality & Financial services clusters.
Rev grew to Rs4.3bn (+2%) coupled with a 7% increase in op. profits to Rs227M. Moz. Poultry opsremained loss-making due to imports → full impmt @ company level.
1.55
19.52
-0.30
16.88
39
-6.5
1.25
0.65
25
41
1.39
P to L
Boosted by a substantial bump in occ. rate from 62% to 76%, turnover grew by 5% to Rs4.3bn andop. profits jumped 50% to Rs418M coupled with alleviated fin. Costs.
Rev stood slightly lower at Rs2.06bn (-3.0%). However op. marg, improved by 55bps to 6.3%. PATprincipally boosted by lower fin costs and improved assoc. (LMLC).2.69
12.20
1.04
0.95
Mul
ti-Se
ctor
Con
glom
erat
/Hol
ding
L to P
1.08 16
16
Revenue grew by 8% to Rs132M coupled with improved op. marg of 9% (FY14: 6.4%). SODIA’soperations will be bought by MEDL and SODIA wound up at ~62cts per share.
Cons
umer
Sta
ples
-58
0.03
In spite of a slight drop in sales rev. to Rs2.08bn (-4.2%), Op. margins jumped from from 1.9% to3.2% due to fall in wheat prices and also due to fin. Income of Rs24M.
14.87 15
-0.01 -0.00 As a Jr Mining Co, no profits were expected. The mining sector is facing rough times with lowcommodity prices and new investments at their lowest levels in years.
Trav
el &
Lei
sure
1.96
Rev. on par at Rs1.3bn. Gains in Gen. Insu offset by Leasing ↓ (credit tightening). ↑ Claims → Insuop. profit ↓ by Rs9M. Leasing op. prof. of Rs3M (FY14: Rs128M) due to imp.
24.03
-57
23-Oct-2015
Jun-15 % Δ
Boosted by both occ. rate ↑ of 77% (FY14: 71%) + ↑ rates. Mdves ↑ 10% @ const marg. Mtius ↑43% to Rs2.6bn but op. margins stood lower at 16% (FY14: 19%) foll. renovations.
0.14
44
2.78
9.52
16.65
Turnover ↑ to Rs422M (+2.3%) and op. profits by 11% to Rs57M; however the substantially reducedcontribution from associate PAD of Rs28M (FY14: Rs124M) led to a fall in EPS.
0.82
-0.08
YoY
Full-Year FinancialsFi
nanc
ial
1.52
Jun-14Adj. EPS*
-91
FY Ended
Loan ↑ 10% + Depo ↑ 18% → LDR ↓ to 78%. NII Marg. +20bps → NII ↑ 12% toRs8.2bn. NFCI ↑17% while OI ↓ 2% due to FX. CIR ↓ fr 44.6% to 41.8% + halving of imp. → PAT of Rs5.8bn.
7
Results for Financial Year ended Jun 30th 2015 — COND, PROP, GBL1, MAT & INVH
Result comments
CTL ▲
ENLC ▼
ABC ▲
RHT ▼
UBS ▲
ACC ▼
MSIL ▼
ENLL ▼
ASCE ▲
CAUD ▼
NOVUS ▲
UTDL ▼
ROCK ▼
DELP ▲
UBP ▼
GAZ ▼
PIM ▼
CIEL ▲
MDIT ▲
NITL ▲
PAD ▼
ENL(P) ▲
ENIT ▲
FIDES ▼
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
-55 Related to CAUD, MEDL, EUDC, SODIA, MFD.
7.1
Profits halved due to a 44% drop in turnover coupled with a drop Rs1M in investment income.
FY Ended
-28
In spite difficult conditions in public transport, revenue improved to Rs761M (+16%) but op. marginsshrank from 6.5% to 5.8%.
YoY
6.23
3.95
Jun-15
GBL
1 Pr
oper
ty
Full-Year Financials
21 Dividend income was higher coupled with portfolio gains v/s losses in FY14.
1.96
Adj. EPS*
Core transport Rev on par at Rs212M but op. profits ↓ to Rs4.7M (-40%). Fin seg op. profits ↑ toRs47M (+58%) but outweighed by apparent loss in prop. cluster.
-49
-1.2
-74
ROGE's holding company. Please see note above.
Although revenue was quasi-flat at Rs2.36bn, op. profits fell by Rs28M due to poor economic env.(recession for cons.) + overseas losses in Mada & S.Lanka.
1.89 18 ENL Group's holding. Related to ENLL, ENLC, ENIT, ROGE and ASCE.
0.26 0.23 15MDIT’s portfolio income was flat and a substantially higher surplus mitigated lower proceeds fromsales of investments.
0.91 0.75
Turnover increased by 3% to Rs234M; however MUR’s depreciation and resulting ↑ cost of rawmats hurt margins which fell from 9% to 7.5%.
L to P
1.15 2.55
Operating profits plunged 62% to Rs3.6M following a near 2-fold increase in operating expenses toRs32M.
2.592.56
1.37
8.60 -16
0.56 -0.14
% Δ
1.42
23-Oct-2015
5.82
-0.52
While divs from REIT investments improved 44% to $78M, FV gains on REITs stood at just $21M(FY14: $105M). Also FX loss of $78M booked, thus lowering PAT.0.01
-1.10
First full year of operations. Rental income derived from mall in Casa Blanca and office space inMaputo.
Cons
umer
Dis
cret
iona
ry
0.45 0.37 22Following a full-year including the new malls, ASCE’s rental income ↑ to Rs418M (+26%) coupledwith improved results at JV resulting in a 22% rise in Adj PAT to R167M.
0.00 0.07 -98Prop Rev ↓ to Rs207 (-5%) + lower op. marg. of 25% (FY14: 40%) due to renovations. On plus side,Security biz improved → 3x increase in op. profits.
Jun-14
1.34
7.80
28.44 -20 Revenue fell by 14% to Rs254M coupled with op. margins of 7.6% against 9.4% in FY14.
Revenue dropped slightly to Rs115M (-3.0%) but op. margins shrank substantially from 14% to 8.5%due to increase in op. costs and provisioning of receivables.
INVH 0.38 0.28
Prop
erty
0.44Rental income grew by 14% to Rs11.3M coupled with the halving of finance costs → a 3x increase inPBT to Rs6.6M.
Rev. boosted by 1st full-year for Cogir conso; however profits ↓ in all segments: Sugar due to lowerprices & cyclical Land due to lower sales.
0.29
-113
50
1.27
-93
6.90 5.30 30Growth driven by Asian ops. Knits Rev on par at Rs4.5bn + broader EBIT marg. of 8% (FY14: 7%).Woven Rev grew to Rs5.6bn (+12%) + improved EBIT marg. of 10% (FY14: 8.5%).
2.23
7.20
-0.14 0.43 P to LAuto Rev ↑ to Rs1.8bn (+18%) but op. marg. halved foll. MUR's dep + ↑ sales of small cars.Plastinax & Nabridas improved while Grewals reg. steeper losses due to poor construction.
10.32 5.95 73The Nissan and Porsche dealer grew sales rev. by 26% to Rs1.7bn at const. op. margin coupled witha 3.3x jump in results from assocs presumably driven by ABC Banking.
22.77
0.16
-5.3
2.082.86
0.84
35
-63Construction mat. op. profits ↑ fr 22M to Rs37M offset by halving of other inc. to Rs17M + loss ↑ atassoc (Haute Rive hotels on North East coast).2.25
Mat
eria
ls
5.16
* Adj for non-recurrent items, unrealised fair value gains, and discontinued operations
CIEL Group's holding . Related to SUN, CTL, MASC, and ALTEO. Non-quoted financial cluster showedmarked improvement with PBT increasing by 58% to Rs885M.
37
8
Preference Shares with Fixed Dividends
NMHL(P) ▲ENLL(P) ▬TPL(P) ▬LFL(P) ▬LMLC(P) ▼
Debt Securities
OMNI 3Y [5.70%] ▼UIL 4Y [R+3.00%] ▼OMNI 5Y [7.15%] ▼LUX CB [9%] ▼UBP 5Y [R+1.20%] ▼MCB 10Y [R+1.35%] ▼SBM 10Y [R+1.35%] ▼MUA 10Y [R+1.85%] ▼
Fixed Income Instruments
Moody's Credit Rating: Baa1
Overnight [% p.a.]1 Week [% p.a.]
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
7.18%
Fair Val<15-May-16
12.0%
39.4712.69
Redemption
173.00
31-Dec-17
312.00
5.47%
5.11%
31-Dec-15
10.70%
4.62%
08-Aug-23
3.42%
5.85%
16-Aug-17
-1.54%
Investment Outlook
39.05
YTM Week Ended
-122 6.41%
6.0% 23
-18
Fair Val
23-Oct-2015
Change [bps]VWAP Val.@ Par16-Oct
-1.97%
16-Dec-15
-223
PLIBOR
1.49
16-Oct-2015
119.15
113.7610-Mar-24
109.19
6.39%
6.86%
6.00% 113.49
31-Oct-18
▼1 Week
24-Mar-16
Setmt
6.85%
6.72%
109.68
1.19
6.78% -8.28%
Rs100 on Wind-Up
17-Jan-16
Rs10 on Wind-Up
35 43
-6.29% 101.45
312.00
7.20%
16-Oct
0.0
31-Dec-15
10-Mar-16 5.75%
08-Nov-15
Change
112.32
101.67
23-Oct
Pref ShareLCP
6.30%
0.0
YTD
Rs40 ≥01-Dec-15
DYYoY
30-Mar-15
0.1-18 23.45
DY Wk EndedNextDividend 23-Oct
YTM
<15-May-16
291.97<15-May-16
10.606.00%
3.46%
6.23%7.18%
20.0%
Debenture23-Oct
NextCoupon
173.007.0%
23.506.43%
5.40%
8.0% 116.79
5.62%
17-Jan-16
@ Par
1.76%
3.25%
4.62%
17.52
YTM @ FV
3.73%
1.52▼
3.69%
6.62%
6.00%
0.1
5.11%<15-May-16
105 92
31-Jan-16
102.71
106.92
5.20%
102.62
5.45%
102.51 104.31
YTD in bps
-228
5.19%
39.00
YTD
Week Ended
23-Oct-2015
24-Sep-24
Maturity
24Rs100 on Wind-Up
-66.5%-59.9%
1.15 -3.36%
105.27
3.78% 101.815.75%
6.38%
<15-May-16
5.63% 100.80
10.60 0.1 Rs11.99 ≥31-Jan-18
0
1
2
3
4
Inte
rest
Rat
e [%
]
PLIBOR 1-Day PLIBOR 1-Wk Tbill 91-Day
3.2
5.0
6.0 6.9
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
0 5 10 15
Sove
reig
n Yi
elds
[%
]
Instrument Maturity [Yrs]
Poly. (Previous)
Power (Current)Current
Prev. Yr
545 395
10,158 181 -43 1 54
UIL 4Y OMNI 5Y LUX CB UBP 5Y MCB 10Y SBM 10Y MUA 10Y
~8,000
9
ETFs & Commodities
L HNewGOLD [Rs/coz]▼Gold [Rs/coz] ▲NewPLAT [Rs/coz] ▲Plat. [Rs/coz] ▲Sugar [Rs/t] ▲B.Crude [Rs/L] ▼S&P GIVI SA Top 50 ▼*where coz ≡ centi troy ounce, i.e. ~0.3g; t ≡ tonne = 1,000kg; L ≡ Litre = 100cm 3
Forex Rates
L HUSD / MUREUR / MURGBP / MURZAR / MURAUD / MURJPY / MUR*Weight of currency in trade basket used to compute an MUR index (MURX)
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
27% 41.00
30.39
Change
26.35 -0.3%-1.36%2.77
0.54%40.25
2.7355.726%
7%
Currency
-1.84%36.02
0.03%
—
▼
Wt*
136.32
-5.9%
-0.4%
-2.6%
3.2%36.21
23-Oct12.8%
137.30
55.79
16-Oct
1.0%
-0.71%
▼26.35
57% ▲▼
1.78%423.63
YTD—
LCP
4.91%-4.9%11.3611.00
11,695 11,148
368.23
414.657.3%
Val.
Investment Outlook
359.27
-3.21%
367.33 -9.4%
—
13.1%
—-5.8%
-0.52%23-Oct VWAP
-9.3%
—52-Wk—Wk Ended
1 Wk YoY381.20
424.82412.50
16-Oct
434.25
9.0%
1.7%
1.7%
52 Wks
10.2%0.28%
—
11.7%
— 52Wk YTD
▲ 0.13%
-0.6%
3% ▲
2.24%—
-36.1%
23-Oct-2015
7.6%
ETF & Commodity
Change
361.79
9.8%
Week Ended
-6.0%30.17 -0.72%0% 11.5%
147.10
-6.0%
14.2%1 Wk
-21
-14
-7
0
7
Inde
x =
100
on 3
0-Se
p-20
12
USD EUR GBP
Elections
90
95
100
105
110
115
Inde
x =
100
on 3
0-Se
p-14
NewGold [Rs]Gold [$]
65
75
85
95
105
Inde
x =
100
on 3
0-Se
p-14
NewPlat [Rs]
Plat [$]40
55
70
85
100
Inde
x =
100
on 3
0-Se
p-14
Sugar [$] Crude [$]
10
Forex Market Watch
*where USDX is the USD Dollar index and MURX is an MUR index computed by AXYS against five peers using the trade basket
Net BoM purchases on FX Market
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
During the week ended Oct 23rd 2015, the Bank of Mauritius did not intervene on the domestic foreign exchange market.
23-Oct-2015Investment Outlook
0
275
550
825
1,100
99
103
107
111
115
BoM FX purchases [Rs M
] Inde
x =
100
on 3
0-Ju
n-14
BoM
MURX
USDX
Elections BBCL License
revoked
6.71
8.91
11.92
7.18
10.37 11.55
3.80
14.89
14.57
7.5
10.2
15.7
22.1
24.9
11.5
31
29
30 31 31
35
40 40 39
41 41
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD bought [Rs bn] EUR bought [Rs bn]
USD VWAP [Rs] EUR VWAP [Rs]
11
SEM Listed Fund Net Asset Values
Africa Sustainability FundBayport Management LtdColina Holdings LtdFidelis Opportunity Fund PCC - Focus Cell 2Global Diversified Fund PCC - Cell No. 1Global Windsor Capital Fund LtdNovare Africa Fund PCCNinetyEast Timaeus Capital Fund PCC - Cell AP.O.L.I.C.Y. LtdRSJ Prop, PCCTriangle Real Estate India Fund LLCUniversal Golden FundAfrAsia Capital Management Ltd
– ACM India Focus Fund– ACM Aussie Ltd– ACM European Ltd– AfrAsia Special Opportunities Fund – AfrAsia Special Opportunities Fund
AIGO Holdings PCC– AIGO UK Residential Property Fund– AIGO Commercial Property Fund– AIGO Natural Resources Fund
Global Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd– Kotak Indian Growth Fund (Class A)– Kotak Indian Mid-Cap Fund (Class C)– Kotak Liquid Fund (Class I)
Imara– Imara African Opportunities Fund Ltd– Imara Global Fund Ltd
IPRO LtdIPRO Growth Fund LtdIPRO African Market Leaders Fund Ltd
Kotak Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd (KIOFL) Class D Shares– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 1)– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 2)
*NAV provided every Friday. AXYS uses the NAV value closest to month's end
Select Abbreviations
Disclaimer
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
-2.2%4.29
139.63
$
▼
Rs
£
-2.4%
—
5.56
AXYS Stockbroking Ltd has issued this document without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individualrecipient. AXYS Stockbroking Ltd will not be under any liability for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising in connection with the contents of thisdocument. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.This document has been based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. AXYSStockbroking Ltd makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. AXYSStockbroking Ltd is a member of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius and is licensed by the Financial Services Commission.
$
$▼
1,085
Month Ended
569.79
14.6626.27
81.29
0.8%$€ 451.70
833.20
6.9%
£
68.16
1.2%
130.0%
$
▲
0.0%0.0%
99.5599.59—
£
$ 0.936.90 -18.5%0.93
425.65831.28
▬
105.0%
1.3%
644.5%
$
▼
▼ -0.2%
1,941R (ZAR)
2.001.54
$
398.85
-32.6%
1.33
6.1%
1.005.80
Change
7788.46
0.0%0.3% -10.8%
1,100 -10.5%
YTD
0.93
-21.0%-2.4%$
▲
9.81
1.3%8,339
27.43
78.40
2.7%
$
$
▼▼
1,885
15.36
1.49
▲
2.06
▼ -3.4%
1.00
-16.3%
72.07
$
99.20▲
182.25
1.22
5.60
-3.6%
1,057
-4.0%
6.7%
▲3.8%
27%
67.39832.55
98.89
182.71182.69
2.20▼
1.20
23-Oct-2015
Aug-15 Sep-15838
▬8,339
1.00
-0.1%99.47
Investment Outlook
Sectors:FIN = Financial; TL = Travel & Leisure; MSCH = Multi-Sector Conglomerates & Holdings; CONS = Consumer Staples; COND = Consumer Discretionary; MAT =Materials; IND = Industrials; HLTH = Health; COMM = Communications; PROP = Property; INVH = Investment Holdings; UT = Utilities; GOV = Public Sector;OTH =Other.
1.9%
Jul-15Official Market
3.92▲4.19
133.09 128.57
4.27$1.8%3.99
$
27.74 25.8814.64
▼
—10.71
▼
-0.8%28.20
81.68
1.8%483.32
£
-26.7%
-1.1%
▼
▲1,918
-2.9%
526.30
230.9398.92
1.65 -3.0%$ (AUD)
€
760
-0.7%
112.8%
559.83
£ -0.3%246.51
-2.1%
—
0.0%
$
▲
$
▼
▼
612.18
-2.0%$▼
▲
▲
4.59
-3.2%
0.3%
0.0%
▲
-1.5%-0.1%
8.8%
$
▲
▼
—
169.77
481.96
-12.5%
27.20
-2.3%
MtoM
Rs
12