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Investment Management

(Group Project)

ON

EQUITY VALUATION 

Submitted to: Submitted by:

Dr. Asheesh PandeyAbhishek Pramanik

(PGFA1103)

Sushant

(PGFA1153)

Mohd Danish

(PGFA1127)Davesh

(PGFA1113)

Vikas

(PGFA1156)

Ayush Goyal

(PGFA1111)

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COMPANY PROFILE

Lupin pharmaceuticals, INC.Is the u.s. Wholly owned subsidiary of lupin limited, which isamong the top five pharmaceutical companies in India. Through our sales and marketing

headquarters in Baltimore, md, lupin pharmaceuticals, INC.... Is dedicated to delivering high-quality, branded and generic medications trusted by healthcare professionals and patientsacross geographies.

Lupin limited, headquartered in Mumbai, India, is strongly research focused. It has a programfor developing new chemical entities. The company has a state-of-the-art red center in Puneand is a leading global player in anti-tub, cephalosporin’s (anti-infective) and cardiovasculardrugs (ace-inhibitors and cholesterol reducing agents) and has a notable presence in the areasof diabetes, anti-inflammatory and respiratory therapy.

We are building on our parent company’s strengths of vertical integration in discoveryresearch, process chemistry, active pharmaceutical ingredient production, formulationdevelopment and regulatory filings. Lupine pharmaceuticals, INC.... Is committed toachieving its vision and mission of becoming an innovation led transnational pharmaceuticalcompany.

Vinita gupta, ceo of lupin pharmaceuticals, INC.... Says "founded on the strengths of ourparent company lupin limited, lupin pharmaceuticals, INC.... Intends to bring a portfolio of generics as well as branded products to the us market."

For the financial year ended march 2010, lupin limited's revenues and profit after tax were

rs.47,678 million (us$ 1.1 billion) and rs.6,186 million (us$ 152 million) respectively.

Mission/vision

Lupin’s mission is to become a transnational pharmaceutical company through thedevelopment and introduction of a wide portfolio of branded and generic products in keymarkets.

Our vision

Lupin pharmaceuticals, INC.... Is committed to bringing innovative products for thehealthcare professional to improve the health and wellbeing of individuals.

Lupin pharmaceuticals, INC.... Is well positioned for growth in the us market. We cancapitalize on the strengths of our parent company, lupin limited:

  Scientific expertise to develop new and improved products and product lineextensions;

  Manufacturing technology, expertise and infrastructure;  Financial resources.

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PRODUCT

Generics

Lupin pharmaceuticals, Inc. Entered the u.s. Generic pharmaceutical market in 2003 with theand approval for cefuroxime axetil. Since then we have received more than a dozen fdaapprovals. Six of lupin's 14 and a approvals were the first granted by the us fda, reinforcingour ability to submit high quality dossiers and gain on time approvals.

We are vertically integrated, from process development of the api to the submission of dossiers for finished dosages. This provides control over the supply chain and the ability tooffer quality products at the right time and at competitive prices.

Our integrated manufacturing capability provides a portfolio of the highest quality genericproducts.

Expanding the product portfolio, lupin pharmaceuticals, INC Is geared to file 15 or moreanda’s per year in some of the following areas:  

-  Oral and injectable cephalosporins;

-  Cardiovascular;

-  Controlled release anda’s; 

-  Paragraph iv’s. 

Our oral and injectable cephalosporin facilities, us fda approved manufacturing sites and the

new tablet and capsule facility in goa, allow us to file and manufacture a wide range of finished products for the us market.

Specialty

A commitment to caring for kids 

Lupin pharmaceuticals, INC.... Is committed to developing a branded pharmaceuticalpresence for pediatric practice in the us market. We are committed to identifying, developingand marketing prescription drugs for children of all ages. Lupin has created a dedicatednational sales force to call upon pediatricians.

Lupin pharmaceuticals, INC...., is very pleased to offer suprax®, an important anti-infectiveproduct in pediatric and other physician practices within the united states. Suprax® is nowavailable in tablets and suspension formulations. Lupin pharmaceuticals, INC...., has anexclusive license in the united states to use the suprax® trademark.

We plan to expand our family of pediatric products to help meet needs of children. Our focusis on in-house product development with our proprietary oral controlled release and tastemasking platforms. Lupin pharmaceuticals, INC.... Is also open to marketing alliances, and tolicensing/acquisitions.

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API

-  Lupin is recognized as a leading manufacturer of cephalosporinapi’s, with fda approval to manufacture complex oral and

injectable cephalosporins.

-  Lupin is fast gaining share in the cardiovascular segmentmanufacturing a wide range of ace-inhibitors and cholesterolreducing agents.

-  Lupin’s capabilities in sterile processing, synthetic process

development and fermentation skills coupled with its intellectualproperty strengths, puts the company in a very strong position tooffer a diverse portfolio of niche api’s to its customers. 

Manufacturing / R&D

Lupin Pharmaceuticals, INC.... provides the advanced manufacturing capabilities andprocesses that create quality specialty and generic products. Lupin is amongst the world'slargest manufacturers of products in its chosen therapeutic areas. Lupin has manufacturingoperations in 5 cities in India and also a site in Thailand. Our plants are located atMandideep, Aurangabad, Tarapur, Ankleshwar and Goa, in India.

The new tablet/capsule facility in Goa, India allows Lupin to file and manufacture a widerange of finished products for the US market:

-  Diverse / Integrated manufacturing capability;

-  Synthetic API’s; Fermentation products; 

-  Oral and injectable finished products.

We have cost leadership with large scale, complex products.

Research and Development

Research is and will continue to be the main driver for success of Lupin Pharmaceuticals,INC....

Research is the foundation upon which Lupin Pharmaceuticals, INC.... will participate in a

variety of therapeutic areas.

State of the Art Research Park

The Lupin Research Park is located at Pune, India.

19 acre site with built area of 150,000 sq.ft.

Home to 320 scientists.

Lupin’s core site for innovation: 

- Process development;- Technology development;

- Basic preclinical, phase1 and phase 2 research.145 patents filed, 53 patents granted worldwide.

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Works closely with an extensive network of global laboratories, companies and academicinstitutions.

TechnologyGenerics 

-  Drug master files (DMFs) for APIs and Formulation development.

-  Abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) for finished products.

New Drug Delivery Systems (NDDS)

-  Oral controlled release systems (OCRS).

-  Advanced drug delivery systems (ADDS).

-  Taste masking system.

New Chemical Entities (NCE)

-  Basic drug discovery research has yielded proprietary molecules with potential asanti-migraine, anti T B, anti-psoiasis agents.

-  Investigating herbal and synthetic routes.

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INDUSTRY OF THE COMPANY

The Indian Pharmaceutical industry is highly fragmented with about 24,000 players (around330 in the organised sector). The top ten companies make up for more than a third of the

market. The Indian pharma industry (IPM) grew by 16% YoY in 2012 to ` 629 bn. Itaccounts for about 1.4% of the world's pharma industry in value terms and 10% in volumeterms

Besides the domestic market, Indian pharma companies also have a large chunk of theirrevenues coming from exports. While some are focusing on the generics market in the US,Europe and semi-regulated markets, others are focusing on custom manufacturing forinnovator companies. Biopharmaceuticals is also increasingly becoming an area of interestgiven the complexity in manufacture and limited competition.

The drug price control order (DPCO) continues to be a menace for the industry. There are

three tiers of regulations  – on bulk drugs, on formulations and on overall profitability. Thishas made the profitability of the sector susceptible to the whims and fancies of the pricingauthority. In connotation, with pricing policy of 354 drugs, NLEM (National list of essentialmedicines) was released, which covered the list of the drugs which the authority intends toput under price control. The policy has been stiffly opposed by the pharmaceutical industry.

Introduction of GDUFA (Generic drug user fee Act) in US. As per this act, the genericcompanies are required to pay user fees to USFDA, for application of drugs andmanufacturing facilities. This fee will be utilized by USFDA to engage additional resourcesin order to reduce current and pending applications and speed up the approval process. (Note:This act was passed in 2011, which was signed into Law in July 2012).

The R&D spends of the top five companies is about 5% to 10% of revenues. This ratio is stillway below the global average of 15% to 20% of sales. Indian companies have adoptedvarious strategies for their R&D efforts. Some have entered into collaboration andpartnership agreements with innovator companies; others have out-licensed their moleculesfor milestone payments. Hiving off R&D units into separate companies has also become apreferred option for many Indian pharma players. That said, given that the research pipelinesof Big Pharma are drying up, they have now begun to dabble in generics. In this regard, theseinnovator companies are either buying out Indian firms or are forging alliances with them.

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Key Points 

Supply Higher for traditional therapeutic segments, which is typicalof a developing market. Relatively lower for lifestylesegment.

Demand Very high for certain therapeutic segments. Will change aslife expectancy, literacy increases.

Barriers to entry Licensing, distribution network, patents, plant approval byregulatory authority.

Bargaining power of suppliers Distributors are increasingly pushing generic products in a bidto earn higher margins.

Bargaining power of buyers High, a fragmented industry has ensured that there iswidespread competition in almost all product segments.(Currently also protected by the DPCO).

Competition High. Very fragmented industry with the top 300 (of 24,000manufacturing units) players accounting for 85% of salesvalue. Consolidation is likely to intensify.

Financial Year '12

FY12/CY11 was a challenging on domestic front. The companies witnessed a

sluggish growth in the 1HFY12, on the back of severe competition in the acutesegment. Increasing competition from MNCs and unlisted companies impaired thegrowth of local players. Though the Indian Pharma Industry grew by 16% vs 18%in FY11, large part of the growth was contributed by the chronic segment.

MNC pharma companies continued to excel during FY12/CY11. Of the 25 topselling brands, 13 were from the MNCs. On the margin front, performance was notgood. Most of the companies saw increase in raw material and employee costs.Companies continued to increase their MR strength and expand their reach to ruralareas.

In the US, generic companies witnessed robust growth, as billion dollar products

like, Lipitor, Zyprexa, Plavix came off patent. On the other hand Europe continuedto face pressure.

Rupee depreciation was one important aspect which helped the industry. Manycompanies benefited due to rupee depreciation, especially the companies who hadnot hedged their receivables.

Many companies had received warning letters from the USFDA in the past. Theyear saw some green signals from US regulator. While Aurobindo, Cadila andClaris got USFDA clearances, Ranbaxy entered into a consent decree with USFDAin order to gets its two manufacturing facilities re-approved by the US authorities.

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Prospects 

The product patents regime heralds an era of innovation and research resulting in

the launch of new patented product launches. In the longer run, domesticcompanies would face fresh competition from MNCs, as they would makeaggressive new launches. However, the latter would most likely be subject to pricenegotiation.

Drugs having estimated sales of over US$ 80 bn are expected to go off patentbetween CY12 and CY15. With the governments in the developed markets lookingto cut down healthcare costs by facilitating a speedy introduction of generic drugsinto the market, domestic pharma companies will stand to benefit. However,despite this huge promise, intense competition and consequent price erosion wouldcontinue to remain a cause for concern.

The developing markets viz; Brazil, Turkey, Mexico, Russia etc are expected towitness growth of around 25% during 2014-15. Like India, emerging markets arealso “Branded” by nature, thus Indian companies are well poised to capitalise on

the opportunities in these markets as well.

The life style segments such as cardiovascular, anti-diabetes, anti-depressants andanti-cancers will continue to be lucrative and fast growing owing to increasedurbanisation and change in lifestyle patterns. High growth in domestic sales in thefuture will depend on the ability of companies to align their product portfoliotowards the chronic segment as the lifestyle diseases like hypertension, congestiveheart failure, depression, asthma, and diabetes are on the rise.

Contract manufacturing and research (CRAMS) is expected to gain momentum

going forward. India’s competitive strengths in research services include English-language competency, availability of low cost skilled doctors and scientists, largepatient population with diverse disease characteristics and adherence tointernational quality standards. As for contract manufacturing, both globalinnovators and generic majors are finding it profitable to outsource production.Although the scenario has yet not improved for this space after the financial crisis,it is expected to improve going forward as the pressure to prune costs increases.

As per the McKinsey report, Indian pharmaceuticals market is expected to grow toUS$ 55 bn in 2020 and has a potential to reach US$ 70 bn by 2020.

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THE VALUATION TECHNIQUE Dividend discount model 

The dividend discount model (DDM) is a way of valuing a company based on the theorythat a stock is worth the discounted sum of all of its future dividend payments. In otherwords, it is used to value stocks based on the net present value of the future dividends. Theequation most always used is called the Gordon growth model. It is named after Myron J.Gordon, who originally published it in 1959;although the theoretical underpin was providedby John Burr Williams in his 1938 text "The Theory of Investment Value".

The variables are: is the current stock price. is the constant growth rate in perpetuity

expected for the dividends. is the constant cost of equity for that company. is the valueof the next year's dividends. There is no reason to use a calculation of next year's dividendusing the current dividend and the growth rate, when management commonly disclose the

future year's dividend and websites post it.

Derivation of equation

The model sums the infinite series which gives the current price P.

Income plus capital gains equals total returnThe equation can also be understood to generate the value of a stock such that the sum of itsdividend yield (income) plus its growth (capital gains) equals the investor's required totalreturn. Consider the dividend growth rate as a proxy for the growth of earnings and byextension the stock price and capital gains. Consider the company's cost of equity capital as aproxy for the investor's required total return.

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Growth cannot exceed cost of equity

From the first equation, one might notice that cannot be negative. When growth isexpected to exceed the cost of equity in the short run, then usually a two stage DDM is used:

Therefore,

Where denotes the short-run expected growth rate, denotes the long-run growth rate, andis the period (number of years), over which the short-run growth rate is applied.

Even when g is very close to r , P approaches infinity, so the model becomes meaningless.

Some properties of the model

A) When the growth g is zero the dividend is capitalized.

.

B) This equation is also used to estimate cost of capital by solving for .

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Problems with the model

A) The presumption of a steady and perpetual growth rate less than the cost of capital maynot be reasonable.

B) If the stock does not currently pay a dividend, like many growth stocks, more generalversions of the discounted dividend model must be used to value the stock. One commontechnique is to assume that the Miller-Modigliani hypothesis of dividend irrelevance is true,and therefore replace the stocks's dividend  D with  E earnings per share. However, thisrequires the use of earnings growth rather than dividend growth, which might be different.

C) The stock price resulting from the Gordon model is hyper-sensitive to the growth ratechosen.

VALUATION OF LUPIN:-

Assumptions

1.  Company will grow at 8% for next 10 years and would stable after that at 5%.

2.  Payout at stable growth would be 15% more than the high period.

%

Rf* 8

Rmh* 10Rms* 8

beta -0.39611

ke (h) = .0720778

ke (s) = 8

Rf= Risk free

Rmh=Market Return(high)

Rms=Market Return(stable)

Note: Are there actual investments out there that have negative betas? I know that there are stocks

with negative regression betas, but those are the mostly the result of something strange happening

during the period of the regression - an extended lawsuit or acquisition battle throwing off the

correlation with the market- rather the true betas.

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Stable Growth Model

2008 2009 2011 2012

Column1 Column2 Column3 Column5 Column6

Profit after tax 443.38 416.97 809.98 804.37

Paid up equity capital 82.08 82.82 89.24 89.33

roe 5.401803119 5.034653465 9.076423129 9.004477779

retention ratio 77.89 76.61 80.99 79.86

pay out ratio 22.11 23.39 19.01 20.14

g 4.207464449 3.85704802 7.350995092 7.190975954

Earning Per Share

(Rs) 54.02 50.35 18.15 18.01dividend paid 11.943822 11.776865 3.450315 3.627214

cagr 5.6682699 0.0566827

ke 0.08

avg pay-outratio 21.21 0.2121

satable growth pay out ratio 0.3621

satable growth 0.05 stable growth model

eps1 28.21855409 div1 5.9851553 p0 256.683

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Gordan growth two stage model (based on calculated

beta value)

Assumption:

1.company will grow at 8% for next 10 years & would stablise after that at 5%

. payout ratio at stable rate would be 15% more than the high growth period.

g= 9.5%

dicountedvalue atkecalculated

eps1 19.4508 19.72095 div1 4.1255147 3.8481486eps2 21.006864 21.59444 div2 4.4555559 3.8765848

eps3 22.68741312 23.645912 div3 4.8120003 3.9052311

eps4 24.50240617 25.892274 div4 5.1969603 3.9340891

eps5 26.46259866 28.35204 div5 5.6127172 3.9631603

eps6 28.57960656 31.045483 div6 6.0617346 3.9924464

eps7 30.86597508 33.994804 div7 6.5466733 4.0219489

eps8 33.33525309 37.224311 div8 7.0704072 4.0516694

eps9 36.00207333 40.76062 div9 7.6360398 4.0816095

eps10 38.8822392 44.632879 div10 8.2469229 4.1117709

at satble growth = 5%

EPSn+1 40.82635116 47.087688 DIVn+1 14.783222

pn = 492.77406 245.68849

gordan growth two stage model in Rs

p0 = 285.47515

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Gordan growth two stage model( based on published beta

value)

 Again, taking assumption:

:beta published 0.54

ke(h) = 13.4 0.134

ke(s) = 16 0.16

g(h) = 9.5 0.095

g(s) = 5.5 0.055

at payout 36.21%

dicountat ke=13.42%

div1 7.140956 6.297139div2 7.819347 5.811048

div3 8.562185 6.521421

div4 9.375592 7.568135

div5 10.26627 10.26627

div6 11.24157 11.24157

div7 12.30952 12.30952

div8 13.47892 13.47892

div9 14.75942 14.75942

div10 16.16157 16.16157

DIVn+1 17.05045

TV 162.3853 46.17597

p0= 150.591

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RESULT

Since the current market price of a share of LUPIN ltd. is Rs. 595 and the intrinsic value when

calculated with the beta calculated, stable growth and published beta comes out to be Rs.

285.57515, Rs. 256.683 and Rs. 150.591 respectively the share price is over value in the market.

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ANNEXURE

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.208131

R Square 0.043319 Adjusted RSquare 0.022059

Standard Error 0.140131

Observations 47

 ANOVA

df SS MS F 

Significance 

F Regression 1 0.040012 0.040012 2.037602 0.160354

Residual 45 0.883648 0.019637

Total 46 0.923659

Coefficient s 

Standar d Error t Stat P-value 

Lower 95% 

Upper 95% 

Lower 95.0% 

Upper 95.0% 

Intercept -0.014490.02109

4

-0.6868

60.49569

3

-0.0569

70.02799

6

-0.0569

70.02799

6

XVariable1 -0.39611

0.277495

-1.4274

50.16035

4

-0.9550

10.16279

4

-0.9550

10.16279

4

Indices :BSE-100  Company :LUPIN LTD. 500257  

Period : Jan09 to Dec 12

Period: Jan2009 to Dec2012 

Month Close

change % change Close Price change % change

9-Jan 2,778.39 569.9

9-Feb 2,619.50 -158.89 -0.06 650.25 -80.35 -0.14099

9-Mar 2,866.66 247.16 0.09 689.2 -38.95 -0.0599

9-Apr 3,366.30 499.64 0.17 717.05 -27.85 -0.04041

9-May 4,419.68 1,053.38 0.31 833.85 -116.8 -0.16289

9-Jun 4,391.46 -28.22 -0.01 817.1 16.75 0.020088

9-Jul 4,742.39 350.93 0.08 945.9 -128.8 -0.15763

9-Aug 4,770.79 28.40 0.01 1015.15 -69.25 -0.07321

9-Sep 5,179.58 408.79 0.09 1136.85 -121.7 -0.11988

9-Oct 4,833.24 -346.34 -0.07 1226.25 -89.4 -0.07864

9-Nov 5,170.57 337.33 0.07 1374.45 -148.2 -0.12086

9-Dec 5,353.23 182.66 0.04 1490.3 -115.85 -0.08429

10-Jan 5,050.54 -302.69 -0.06 1420.45 69.85 0.04687

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10-Feb 5,079.94 29.40 0.01 1497.65 -77.2 -0.05435

10-Mar 5,394.12 314.18 0.06 1624.55 -126.9 -0.08473

10-Apr 5,439.84 45.72 0.01 1707.75 -83.2 -0.05121

10-May 5,243.91 -195.93 -0.04 1861 -153.25 -0.08974

10-Jun 5,476.70 232.79 0.04 1966.1 -105.1 -0.05648

10-Jul 5,542.87 66.17 0.01 1878.6 87.5 0.04450410-Aug 5,584.08 41.21 0.01 356.05 1522.55 0.810471

10-Sep 6,163.86 579.78 0.10 388.55 -32.5 -0.09128

10-Oct 6,171.18 7.32 0.00 438.2 -49.65 -0.12778

10-Nov 5,962.87 -208.31 -0.03 509.85 -71.65 -0.16351

10-Dec 6,191.51 228.64 0.04 480.45 29.4 0.057664

11-Jan 5,550.03 -641.48 -0.10 422.6 57.85 0.120408

11-Feb 5,370.50 -179.53 -0.03 381.75 40.85 0.096664

11-Mar 5,855.53 485.03 0.09 415.35 -33.6 -0.08802

11-Apr 5,795.29 -60.24 -0.01 439 -23.65 -0.05694

11-May 5,638.16 -157.13 -0.03 469.85 -30.85 -0.07027

11-Jun 5,686.26 48.10 0.01 448.55 21.3 0.045334

11-Jul 5,531.70 -154.56 -0.03 454.6 -6.05 -0.01349

11-Aug 5,062.17 -469.53 -0.08 449.95 4.65 0.010229

11-Sep 4,995.67 -66.50 -0.01 472.95 -23 -0.05112

11-Oct 5,334.14 338.47 0.07 470 2.95 0.006237

11-Nov 4,831.73 -502.41 -0.09 472.75 -2.75 -0.00585

11-Dec 4,598.21 -233.52 -0.05 447.2 25.55 0.054045

12-Jan 5,202.65 604.44 0.13 473.75 -26.55 -0.05937

12-Feb 5,406.46 203.81 0.04 480.4 -6.65 -0.01404

12-Mar 5,315.15 -91.31 -0.02 529.65 -49.25 -0.10252

12-Apr 5,268.41 -46.74 -0.01 551.8 -22.15 -0.04182

12-May 4,942.13 -326.28 -0.06 539.4 12.4 0.022472

12-Jun 5,279.22 337.09 0.07 539 0.4 0.000742

12-Jul 5,229.16 -50.06 -0.01 601.1 -62.1 -0.11521

12-Aug 5,251.07 21.91 0.00 593.35 7.75 0.012893

12-Sep 5,701.39 450.32 0.09 596.3 -2.95 -0.00497

12-Oct 5,620.99 -80.40 -0.01 566.6 29.7 0.049807

12-Nov 5,908.97 287.98 0.05 590.7 -24.1 -0.04253

12-Dec 5,927.58 18.61 0.00 593.65 -2.95 -0.00499