Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman,...

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Presented by: Diane M. Pearson, CFP®, PPC, CDFAAnd James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA Sponsored by:

Transcript of Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman,...

Page 1: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

Presented by:

Diane M. Pearson, CFP®, PPC™, CDFA™And

James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA

Sponsored by:

Page 2: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

Diane M. Pearson, CFP®, PPC™, CDFA™ is an Advisor andShareholder with Legend Financial Advisors, Inc.® Shehas over 20 years experience in the financial advisoryprofession.

Diane has been selected three times by Worth magazineas one of “The Top 250 Wealth Advisors” in the country.

Diane is one of the first financial advisors in the country toearn the Professional Plan Consultants™ (PPC™)designation, recognizing her commitment to educationand service excellence in the qualified retirement planningindustry.

Diane M. Pearson, CFP®, PPC™, CDFA™

She has also been awarded the Certified Divorce Financial Analyst™ (CDFA™) professionaldesignation. As a CDFA™, she is qualified to serve as a financial expert on divorce cases,present data to support an argument, and educate clients on the short- and long-termfinancial implications of different divorce settlement proposals.

Diane is a member of The National Association of Women Business Owners (NAWBO), whereshe is the Finance Director for the Pittsburgh Chapter. She has also been selected as thePittsburgh Chapter of NAWBO’s “Woman Business Owner of the Year” for 2004 as well as the"Woman Business Professional Associate of the Year" for 2007.

Diane has also authored a landmark article entitled “Pre-59½ Distributions—Careful Analysis IsRequired”, regarding retirement distribution planning. She has also been a frequent guestspeaker on various radio and Web site broadcasts.

Diane is a frequent guest featured on Pittsburgh Business Radio (WMNY 1360 AM) and for their"Women Mean Business" show discussing headlines in the region about issues impacting womenin business.

Page 3: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder

with Legend Financial Advisors, Inc.® (Legend)

Jim has been selected two consecutive times by MedicalEconomics as one of “The 150 Best Financial Advisors forDoctors in America.”

Jim serves as the firm’s Income Tax and Education Fundingand Planning Specialist.

Jim’s previous professional experience includes employmentwith various CPA and Financial Advisory organizationswhere he provided tax, accounting, auditing and financialconsulting services to individuals and businesses.

Jim’s areas of concentration include income tax planning, estate planning, stock optionexercise planning, insurance, retirement planning and Section 529 Plans.

Jim is a member of the Pennsylvania and American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.He is also a graduate of the Pittsburgh Leadership Development Initiative, which providesyoung leaders with the tools necessary to affect positive change in the Pittsburgh region, andPittsburgh Leadership Onboard Programs.

Jim also serves on the LaRoche College Board of Governors, is a member of Pittsburgh Cares,and is a former member of the Finance Committee for the Pittsburgh Downtown Partnership.

Jim is a frequent guest featured on Pittsburgh Business Radio (WMNY 1360 AM). He has alsobeen quoted in The Wall Street Journal, The Wall Street Journal Online, MSN Money, CBSMarketwatch, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Bloomberg Wealth Manager, Financial Planning Magazine,Financial Advisor Magazine, National Underwriter, Smart Money, Investment News, Physician’sPersonal Advisory, and in Bottom Line Personal. Jim has been interviewed on CNNfn’s “YourMoney” and “Business Unusual,” as well as WPXI-TV’s “Our Region’s Business” televisionprograms.

Page 4: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

• It is important for investors to understand how comfortable you are withthe risk of losing money, or understanding how much variability can be inyour investment returns on an annual basis.

• You have to make sure your holding period matches the period you arewilling to hold.

NOT UNDERSTANDING YOUR RISK PROFILE

Page 5: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

• A common complaint from investors is that theywere surprised by how much money they lostduring the market crash of 2008 and 2009.

• The S&P 500 dropped 55.25% from October 9,2007 to March 9, 2009.

• The average loss in 401(k) plans in 2008 was27.0% while the S&P 500 dropped 37.0%.

UNDERSTANDING HOW MUCH DOWNSIDE RISK IS IN YOUR CURRENTINVESTMENT PORTFOLIO

Page 6: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend
Page 7: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

Morningstar Star Ratings – measure of a funds’ risk-adjusted return, relative tofunds in its category. Risk-adjusted return is calculated by subtracting a riskpenalty from each fund total return, after accounting for all loads, sales charges,and redemption fees.

Top 10.0%

Next 22.5%

Middle 35.0%

Next 22.5%

Bottom 10.0%

Page 8: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

Subject to change every month and are calculated for the following periods: three-year, five-year, ten-year, and overall. The overall calculation is based on an equal-weighted average ofpercentile ranks for each measure over three-, five-, and ten-year periods (if applicable).

Highest 20% - Rated 5 are Lipper LeadersNext 20% - Rated 4Middle 20% - Rated 3Next 20% - Rated 2Lowest 20% - Rated 1

LIPPER LEADER RATING

Page 9: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

Example:

Year Annual Return

2011 53.0%2010 3.5%2009 3.5%2008 -2.5%2007 -2.5%

WHAT DO THE ROLLING ANNUAL RETURNS REALLY TELL US?

1 YEAR 3 YEAR 5 YEAR

53% 20% 11%

Page 10: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend
Page 11: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

Even investing in non-correlated assetsmight not matter much during times ofpolitical and financial/credit crises ascorrelation tends to increase duringthese times.

NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO CORRELATION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO

Page 12: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

CORRELATIONS TO U.S. STOCKS INCREASED DURING THE BEAR MARKETFROM SEPTEMBER 2008 TO FEBRUARY 2009

CO

RR

EL

AT

ION

ST

OU

.S.S

TO

CK

S

As of: February 28, 2009 Source: Fidelity Viewpoints

Page 13: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend
Page 14: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

5.0% spreads

Inability to diversify with individual bonds

Duration

Credit/default risk

Interest rate risk

Inflation risk

Reinvestment risk

BOND LIQUIDITY ISSUES

Page 15: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

As of: December 31, 2011 Source: Barclays Capital, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP

FIXED INCOME SECTOR RETURNS

Note: Fixed income sectors shown above are provided by Barclays Capital and are represented by: Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index: MBS:Fixed Rate MBS Index; Corporate: U.S. Corporates; Municipals: Muni Bond Index; Emerging Debt: Emerging Markets Index; High Yield:Corporate High Yield Index; Treasuries: Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury; TIPS: Barclays Capital TIPS. The “Asset Allocation” portfolioassumes the following weights: 10.0% in MBS, 20.0% in Corporate, 15.0% in Municipals, 10.0% in Emerging Debt, 10.0% in High Yield, 25% inTreasuries, 10.0% in TIPS. Asset allocation portfolio assumes annual rebalancing.

Page 16: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

Investors frequently get caught jumping into a hot sector that has already run itscourse.

• Whether it is fixed income or commodities such as gold, it is human nature towant to be part of a successful trend.

• Chasing performance can be driven by poor performance in an investor’sexisting investments and can include making investment decisions that goagainst your risk tolerance.

CHASING PERFORMANCE

Page 17: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

YTD As Of

2008 2009 2010 2011 2/8/2012

U.S. Focus Equity ($10.90) $1.20 ($2.30) $14.20 $15.50

Foreign Focus Equity ($2.80) $0.90 $1.80 $8.60 $7.80

Retail Money Funds $12.10 $48.30 ($2.80) ($8.70) ($18.60)

Bonds $5.10 $8.90 $4.50 $5.70 $50.50

All Figures In Billions

SUPPLY/DEMAND FOR OPEN-END MUTUAL FUNDS ANDEXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS

Page 18: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

While we are at all-time low interest rates for CDs, money market rates and 10-year U.S.Treasury Bonds, it is tempting to reach further out in the yield curve to obtain higher returns.

• However, as the chart on the following page from the Leuthold Group shows, investorsneed to be careful and understand the consequences of doing so.

• While reaching for a higher yield might work for a while, the moment that an eventsparks a sell-off, your bond yielding 3.0% might take a significant loss that could wipe outthe last one or two years worth of gains almost overnight.

• Fixed annuities can also look attractive, but investors need to make sure that they knowexactly what they are buying as the introductory interest rates can look attractive, theremaining interest rate on the fixed annuity might look paltry when interest rates start torise.

REACHING FOR YIELD WILL REAP REWARDS

Page 19: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

PRICE IMPACT OF A ONE PERCENT RISE/FALL IN INTEREST RATES

As of: December 31, 2011 Source: U.S. Treasury, Barclays Capital, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Change in bond price is calculated using both duration and convexity according to the following formula: New Price = (Price + (Price * - Duration *Change in Interest Rates)) + (0.5* Price * Convexity * (Change in Interest Rates)^2).

*Calculation assumes 2-year Treasury interest rate falls 0.25% to 0.00% as interest rates can only fall to 0.00%.

Page 20: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS

Page 21: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

For example, the S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index.

• A capitalization weighted index is a type of market index whoseindividual components are weighted according to their marketcapitalization.

• As of December 31, 1999 , the mean return of 6,242 U.S.-based stocks(i.e. companies) was 42.7%. The median return was -3.9%, which tellsus that 50% of the 6,242 stocks had a return lower than -3.9% in 1999which presents a very different picture than that painted by a meanreturn of 42.7%.

USING INAPPROPRIATE BENCHMARKS

Page 22: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

The investment markets are influenced morethan ever by political or global events.

Another significant influence on theinvestment markets is based upon thedecisions being made by central banksaround the world.

If you missed out on the 10 best daysbetween 1980 and 2010, your average annualreturn would have dropped to 5.7% from8.2%, according to an Oppenheimer report.

THE BELIEF THAT YOU CAN TIME THE MARKET

Page 23: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

Note: The Risk Aversion Index combines ten market-based measures including various credit and swap spreads, implied volatility, currencymovements, commodity prices and relative returns among various high- and low-risk assets.

As of: January 5, 2012 Source: The Leuthold Group

Page 24: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

INVESTORS THAT THINK THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT

“This time always seems different, until it turns out not to be."

• Behavioral finance shows that humans aren't very efficient inlearning from the past.

• Market bubbles such as the technology andhousing market bubbles are examples of this.

Page 25: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

Investors sometimes think an investment that hastaken a significant hit will come back. Buying stocksbecause the price has fallen usually is not a good reasonto buy or continue to hold onto a stock. This especially does not applywhen a stock has dropped from a significantly high valuation.

"Those who try to catch a falling knife only get hurt.“

The stock market has proven to rise over longer periods of time.Practically speaking though, an investor needs to define the long term.The long term for some investors can mean five years, for others, itcan mean ten or 15 years.

WHAT GOES DOWN MUST COME UP

Page 26: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

ANNUAL WITHDRAWAL FROM INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO

Annual WithdrawalYEAR 1 Percentage Rate

Portfolio Balance At The Beginning of Year $1,000,000.00Annual Cash Flow Withdrawal ($50,000.00) 5.00%

Portfolio Balance $950,000.00

Portfolio Performance -10.00%

Portfolio Balance At End of Year $855,000.00

YEAR 2

Portfolio Balance At The Beginning of Year $855,000.00Annual Cash Flow Withdrawal ($50,000.00) 5.85%

Portfolio Balance $805,000.00Portfolio Performance 0.00%

Portfolio Balance At End of Year $805,000.00

YEAR 3

Portfolio Balance At The Beginning of Year $805,000.00Annual Cash Flow Withdrawal ($50,000.00) 6.21%

Portfolio Balance $755,000.00Portfolio Performance 0.00%

Portfolio Balance At End of Year $755,000.00

AMOUNT TO GET BACK TO $1,000,000.00 $245,000.00 32.45%

Page 27: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Page 28: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORSAND

EMERGINGWEALTH INVESTMENT MANAGEMENTARE AT YOUR SERVICE

Page 29: Investment fallacies and investors mistakes fallacies and investors mistakes.pdfJames J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA James J. Holtzman, CFP®, CPA is an Advisor and Shareholder with Legend

Legend Financial Advisors, Inc.®5700 Corporate Drive, Suite 350Pittsburgh, PA 15237-5829Phone: (412) 635-9210E-mail: [email protected]

CONTACT INFORMATION

EmergingWealth Investment5700 Corporate Drive, Suite 360Pittsburgh, PA 15237-5829Phone: (412) 548-1386