Investigation of Complex River System Operational Policy – Modeling Obstacles and Solutions James...
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Transcript of Investigation of Complex River System Operational Policy – Modeling Obstacles and Solutions James...
Investigation of Complex River SystemOperational Policy –
Modeling Obstacles and Solutions
James VanShaarRiverside Technology, inc.
(TVA Flood Control Operations EIS Model)
Purpose To determine if changes in reservoir system operating
policies could create greater overall public value
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
Purpose To determine if changes in reservoir system operating
policies could create greater overall public value
System Integrated system provides multiple benefits Trade-offs create competing demands for use of water Stakeholders have different views on priorities
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
NO HoldsBarred!
Purpose To determine if changes in reservoir system operating
policies could create greater overall public value
System Integrated system provides multiple benefits Trade-offs create competing demands for use of water Stakeholders have different views on priorities
Plan Two-year Reservoir Operations Study initiated Any and all uses of the water that flows through the
reservoir system and all aspects of the current operating policies
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
Issues Flood risk Water quality Economic Environmental Cultural Navigation Water supply Recreation (reservoir and downstream) Hydropower and non-hydropower generation Public values on the use of water Support of other federal agencies
Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
Lather. Rinse. . .
Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x
Alternative Scenarios Modify for alternative operational policy Repeat for 5+ alternative operational policies.
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x
Alternative Scenarios Modify for alternative operational policy Repeat for 5+ alternative operational policies.
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x
Alternative Scenarios Modify for alternative operational policy Repeat for 5+ alternative operational policies.
Analysis Extract seasonal and annual peak flow / pool / stage Compare Alternatives against Base Case If necessary, combine / revise alternatives. Repeat.
RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDYBackground
Model DesignMajor Concerns
Run-time
Model size
Accuracy of policy representation
Decision tracking: debugging, calibration, reproduction
Extensibility to alternatives
Model DesignPower production rule set
Generic Tributary Algorithms
Applied to virtually all non-sloped power reservoirs
Foundation of all operation policy
Quarantined deviation code for non-conformist projects
Model DesignPower production rule set
Mainstem Fixed Rule (sloped-power reservoir)
Acceptable discharge vs. pool elevation operational points
Watts Bar Fixed Rule
735
737
739
741
743
745
747
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Watts Bar Discharge (1000 cfs)
Hea
dw
ater
Ele
vati
on
(ft
)
Spillway capacity at elevation 747 is 617,000 cfs
Scaling Range
Surcharge Region
Max LookAhead Elevation
Floating Range
Model DesignPower production rule set
Mainstem Fixed Rule (sloped-power reservoir)
Acceptable discharge vs. pool elevation operational points
Recovery mode
Fixed rule curve abandonment
Model DesignPower production rule set
Model DesignPower production rule set
Results of rule set design
Carefully tested, compact, reused code base
Eliminated re-firing of rules
Decision variables stored
Limited re-solution of objects
Individual policy relegated to parameters, not logic
Model Application System Segmentation
Space
Non-Power Tributary
Model Application System Segmentation
Upper Tributary
Upper Mainstem
Lower Mainstem
Model Application System Segmentation
Space
– Four Models
– Reuse of power rule set
Time
Model ApplicationControl and Data Management
Model ApplicationControl and Data Management
Model ApplicationControl and Data Management
Model ApplicationControl and Data Management
Control Algorithm: For each successive run period--
Modify TSTool and RiverWare batch control files
Run TSTool initialization commands– Access archived data– Locate RiverWare input in expected directory
Run RiverWare using its control file– Import data– Simulation– Export data– Save model with new name
Run TSTool archival commands
– Store results in archive time series files
Model ApplicationControl and Data Management
Design Storms
Apply revised control algorithm for each storm
Revision includes consideration for– Appropriate initial data– Storage location of new archival data
Model ApplicationResults of Approach
Flexibility
– Debugging
– Event isolation
Run-time
Consistency throughout alternatives
Built-in archival of runs / models / decisions
Elimination of model size concerns
Percent Exceedance
Alternative X
Regulated
Alternative Scenarios Alternative Operational Scenario Flood Frequency and Damage Curves
Dollars of Damage
Conclusion
Thank you for your time and attention.
Any Questions?
Fall Creek Falls, TN
Thank you.