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Literature Literature ReviewReview

• Clouds cover about 70 % of the earth Clouds cover about 70 % of the earth

•Low Level Clouds (LCC) are responsible for Low Level Clouds (LCC) are responsible for reflecting back short wave radiationreflecting back short wave radiation

•The overall Albedo of Earth is about 30 %The overall Albedo of Earth is about 30 %

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•GCR are charged that GCR are charged that penetrate earth’s atmosphere penetrate earth’s atmosphere from outer space.from outer space.

•Primarily consisting of about Primarily consisting of about 89 % hydrogen (protons), 10% 89 % hydrogen (protons), 10% helium, and about 1 % other helium, and about 1 % other elementselements

Fig 4. Ionization dominates aerosol production and Fig 4. Ionization dominates aerosol production and growth rates when ionization levels are low and growth rates when ionization levels are low and trace gas concentrations are high, such is found in trace gas concentrations are high, such is found in the lower atmosphere ( Yu, 2000)the lower atmosphere ( Yu, 2000)

Fig 3.The top curve is the cosmic ray Fig 3.The top curve is the cosmic ray flux from the neutron monitor in flux from the neutron monitor in Climax, Colorado (1953, - 1956). Climax, Colorado (1953, - 1956). Middle curve is the annual mean Middle curve is the annual mean variation in Cosmic Ray flux as variation in Cosmic Ray flux as measured by ionization chambers measured by ionization chambers ( 1937- 1994). The Bottom curve ( 1937- 1994). The Bottom curve represents the relative sunspot represents the relative sunspot number (Svesnmark, 2000). number (Svesnmark, 2000).

Fig.2: The blue line represents Fig.2: The blue line represents variations in global cloud cover variations in global cloud cover correlated by the ISCCP. The red correlated by the ISCCP. The red line represents recorded monthly line represents recorded monthly variations in GCR flux at the variations in GCR flux at the Huancayo station. A 2% change in Huancayo station. A 2% change in LCC during a solar cycle will change LCC during a solar cycle will change the heat input to the Earth's surface the heat input to the Earth's surface by 1.2 watts per square meter by 1.2 watts per square meter (W/m2). This compares to the total (W/m2). This compares to the total warming of 1.4 W/mwarming of 1.4 W/m22 the IPCC cites the IPCC cites in the 20th century. (Usoskin, 2006)in the 20th century. (Usoskin, 2006)

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•Fig. 1: Total monthly global cloud Fig. 1: Total monthly global cloud cover is plotted against the cover is plotted against the monthly global surface air monthly global surface air temperature, since July 1983. High temperature, since July 1983. High values of global cloud cover is values of global cloud cover is associated with low global associated with low global temperatures, demonstrating the temperatures, demonstrating the cooling effect of clouds (Butler, cooling effect of clouds (Butler, 2004) 2004)

• Null: An insignificant correlation will exist between GCR flux Null: An insignificant correlation will exist between GCR flux and LCC therefore having little significance in modulating the and LCC therefore having little significance in modulating the surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Region surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Region

•Alternate: A significant correlation will exist between GCR flux Alternate: A significant correlation will exist between GCR flux and LCC and therefore will play a primary role in modulating the and LCC and therefore will play a primary role in modulating the surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Regionsurface temperatures of the North Atlantic Region

HYPOTHESIHYPOTHESISS

• LCC formation due to GCR induced LCC formation due to GCR induced ionization provide the physical mechanism ionization provide the physical mechanism linking solar variability and climate linking solar variability and climate

•GCR are primarily responsible for all GCR are primarily responsible for all ionization bellow 35 kmionization bellow 35 km

CRII : Ions created by GCR interact with CRII : Ions created by GCR interact with the atmosphere interact with atmospheric the atmosphere interact with atmospheric molecules and are converted into aerosols molecules and are converted into aerosols (complex cluster ions) which may act as (complex cluster ions) which may act as CNNCNN

Cosmic RaysCosmic Rays

LEAVE SPACE FOR ABSTRACT

The Effect of Clouds The Effect of Clouds on Earth’s Radiation on Earth’s Radiation

BudgetBudget

Aerosol FormationAerosol Formation

DiscussionDiscussionDiscussionDiscussion

•

LimitationsLimitationsLimitationsLimitations

Work CitedWork Cited Work CitedWork Cited

Future Future Studies Studies Future Future Studies Studies

•Dickinson, Robert E., 1975. Solar variability and the lower atmosphere, Dickinson, Robert E., 1975. Solar variability and the lower atmosphere, Bull. Am. Met. Soc.Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 56, #12, , 56, #12, 1240-1248. 1240-1248.

•Farrar, Paul D., 2000. Do cosmic rays influence oceanic cloud coverage - Or is it only El Niño?, Farrar, Paul D., 2000. Do cosmic rays influence oceanic cloud coverage - Or is it only El Niño?, Climatic ChangeClimatic Change, 47, 7-15., 47, 7-15.

•Friis-Christensen, Eigil, 2000. Sun, clouds and climate, Friis-Christensen, Eigil, 2000. Sun, clouds and climate, Climatic ChangeClimatic Change, 47, 1-5., 47, 1-5.

•Gierens, Klaus, and Ponater, Michael, 1999. Comment on "Variation of cosmic ray flux and global Gierens, Klaus, and Ponater, Michael, 1999. Comment on "Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage - a missing link in solar- climate relationships" by H. Svensmark and E. Friis-cloud coverage - a missing link in solar- climate relationships" by H. Svensmark and E. Friis-Christensen (1997), Christensen (1997), J. Atm. & Solar-Terr. Phys.J. Atm. & Solar-Terr. Phys., 71, #11, Rapid Communication, 795-797., 71, #11, Rapid Communication, 795-797.[[

•Haigh, Joanna D., 2000. Solar variability and climate, Haigh, Joanna D., 2000. Solar variability and climate, WeatherWeather, 55, #11, 399-407., 55, #11, 399-407.

•Harrison, R. G. and Shine, K. P., Feb. 1999. Harrison, R. G. and Shine, K. P., Feb. 1999. A review of recent studies of the influence of solar A review of recent studies of the influence of solar changes on the Earth’s climatechanges on the Earth’s climate, report prepared under contract with the Meteorological Office/Hadley , report prepared under contract with the Meteorological Office/Hadley Centre, 64pp.Centre, 64pp.

•Harrison, R. G. and Aplin, K. L., 2001. Atmospheric condensation nuclei formation and high-energy Harrison, R. G. and Aplin, K. L., 2001. Atmospheric condensation nuclei formation and high-energy radiation, radiation, J. Atm. & Solar-Terr. Phys.J. Atm. & Solar-Terr. Phys., 63, 1811-1819., 63, 1811-1819.

• Jørgensen, Torben Stockflet, and Hansen, Aksel Walløe, 2000. Comments on "Variation of cosmic Jørgensen, Torben Stockflet, and Hansen, Aksel Walløe, 2000. Comments on "Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage - a missing link in solar-climate relationships" by Henrik ray flux and global cloud coverage - a missing link in solar-climate relationships" by Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen [Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 59 (1997) Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen [Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 59 (1997) 1225-1225-

•Kristjánsson, Jon Egill, and Kristiansen, Jørn, 2000. Is there a cosmic ray signal in recent variations Kristjánsson, Jon Egill, and Kristiansen, Jørn, 2000. Is there a cosmic ray signal in recent variations in global cloudiness and cloud radiative forcing? in global cloudiness and cloud radiative forcing? J. Geophys. Res.J. Geophys. Res., 105, D9, 11,851-11,863., 105, D9, 11,851-11,863.

• Kristjánsson, J. E., Staple, A., Kristiansen, J., Kass, E., 2002. A new look at possible connections Kristjánsson, J. E., Staple, A., Kristiansen, J., Kass, E., 2002. A new look at possible connections between solar activity, clouds and climate, between solar activity, clouds and climate, Geophys. Res. Ltr.Geophys. Res. Ltr., 29, #23, p.2017, 29, #23, p.2017

• Kristjánsson, J.E., Kristiansen, J., and Kaas, E., 2003. Solar activity, cosmic rays, clouds and climate Kristjánsson, J.E., Kristiansen, J., and Kaas, E., 2003. Solar activity, cosmic rays, clouds and climate - an update, - an update, Adv. Space Res.Adv. Space Res.

• Kuang, Z., Jiang, Y., and Yung, Y. L., 1998. Cloud optical thickness variations during 1983-1991: Kuang, Z., Jiang, Y., and Yung, Y. L., 1998. Cloud optical thickness variations during 1983-1991: Solar cycle or ENSO?, Solar cycle or ENSO?, Geophys. Res. Lett.Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1415-1417., 25, 1415-1417.

• Laut, Peter, 2003. Solar activity and terrestrial climate: an analysis of some purported correlations, Laut, Peter, 2003. Solar activity and terrestrial climate: an analysis of some purported correlations, J. Atmos. & Solar-Terr. Phys.J. Atmos. & Solar-Terr. Phys., 65, #7, 801-812. DOI: 10.1016/S1364-6826(03)00041-5 , 65, #7, 801-812. DOI: 10.1016/S1364-6826(03)00041-5

• Marsh, Nigel, and Svensmark, Henrik, 2000. Cosmic rays, clouds, and climate, Marsh, Nigel, and Svensmark, Henrik, 2000. Cosmic rays, clouds, and climate, Space Sci. Rev.Space Sci. Rev., 94, , 94, #1/2, 215-230.#1/2, 215-230.

• Marsh, Nigel D., and Svensmark, Henrik, 2000. Low cloud properties influenced by cosmic rays, Marsh, Nigel D., and Svensmark, Henrik, 2000. Low cloud properties influenced by cosmic rays, Phys. Rev. Lett.Phys. Rev. Lett., 85, #23, 5004, 85, #23, 5004

•Pallé Bagó, E., and Butler, C. J., 2000. The influence of cosmic rays on terrestrial clouds and global Pallé Bagó, E., and Butler, C. J., 2000. The influence of cosmic rays on terrestrial clouds and global warming, warming, Astron. & Geophys.Astron. & Geophys., 41, 4.18-4.22., 41, 4.18-4.22.

• Pallé Bagó, E., and Butler, C. J., 2001. Sunshine records from Ireland, cloud factors and possible Pallé Bagó, E., and Butler, C. J., 2001. Sunshine records from Ireland, cloud factors and possible links to solar activity andlinks to solar activity and climate, climate, Int. J. of Climatology.Int. J. of Climatology., , 2121, Issue 6, 709-729., Issue 6, 709-729.

•Further research on the physical link between GCR Further research on the physical link between GCR and low cloud ionization and low cloud ionization

• The significance of ionic charge on The significance of ionic charge on electroscavenging in the lower atmosphere for LCC electroscavenging in the lower atmosphere for LCC formationformation

• Plausible errors in the ISCCP cloud data, as the satellite Plausible errors in the ISCCP cloud data, as the satellite IR channels since they are incapable of distinguishing are IR channels since they are incapable of distinguishing are not able to distinguish low clouds from underlying not able to distinguish low clouds from underlying surfaces which have the similar temperaturessurfaces which have the similar temperatures

• inaccurate classification of clouds by satellite detectors inaccurate classification of clouds by satellite detectors

• difficulties in estimating the net change I radiaitive difficulties in estimating the net change I radiaitive forcing of a clouds over surface temperatures ( limited forcing of a clouds over surface temperatures ( limited models) models)

• Results showed the most significant correlations Results showed the most significant correlations between LCC and GCR at the latitudes 42 degrees between LCC and GCR at the latitudes 42 degrees and above due to the presence of clouds in their and above due to the presence of clouds in their liquid phaseliquid phase

• However, results also showed seemingly weak However, results also showed seemingly weak correlations at latitudes below 30 degreescorrelations at latitudes below 30 degrees

•Data shows a strong GCR dependence upon latitude Data shows a strong GCR dependence upon latitude and longitude due to the presence of clouds in their and longitude due to the presence of clouds in their liquid state ( favorable to electroscavenging)liquid state ( favorable to electroscavenging)

ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusions

• Results rejected the alternate hypothesis and Results rejected the alternate hypothesis and supported the null hypothesissupported the null hypothesis

• Ultimately suggesting that GCR play a minimal role Ultimately suggesting that GCR play a minimal role in modulating surface temperatures of the North in modulating surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Region and therefore anthropogenic causes Atlantic Region and therefore anthropogenic causes remain the primary driver of global warming as remain the primary driver of global warming as previously believedpreviously believed

•Pallé Bagó, E., and Butler, C. J., 2001. Sunshine, clouds and cosmic rays, in Pallé Bagó, E., and Butler, C. J., 2001. Sunshine, clouds and cosmic rays, in Proc. of the first SOLSPA Proc. of the first SOLSPA Euroconference, Canary Island, September 2000Euroconference, Canary Island, September 2000. ESA Special Publication SP-463, 147-152.. ESA Special Publication SP-463, 147-152.

• Pallé, E., and Butler, C. J., 2002. The proposed connection between clouds and cosmic rays: Cloud Pallé, E., and Butler, C. J., 2002. The proposed connection between clouds and cosmic rays: Cloud behavior during the past 50-120 years, behavior during the past 50-120 years, J. Atmos. & Solar-Terr. Phys.J. Atmos. & Solar-Terr. Phys., 64, #3, 327-337., 64, #3, 327-337.

• Rahmstorff, S,. Rahmstorff, S,. et al.et al., 2004. Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate, , 2004. Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate, EosEos, 85, #4, 38,41. Jan 30, 2004, 85, #4, 38,41. Jan 30, 2004

• Sun, Bomin, and Bradley, Raymond S., 2002. Solar influences on cosmic rays and cloud formation: A Sun, Bomin, and Bradley, Raymond S., 2002. Solar influences on cosmic rays and cloud formation: A reassessment, reassessment, J. Geophys. Res.J. Geophys. Res., 107, D14, AAC 5-1 - 12. DOI: 10.1029/2001JD000560., 107, D14, AAC 5-1 - 12. DOI: 10.1029/2001JD000560.

• Svensmark, H., 1998. Influence of cosmic rays on Earth’s climate, Svensmark, H., 1998. Influence of cosmic rays on Earth’s climate, Phys. Rev. Lett.Phys. Rev. Lett., 81, 5027-5030., 81, 5027-5030.

•Svensmark, Henrik, 2000. Cosmic rays and Earth's climate, Svensmark, Henrik, 2000. Cosmic rays and Earth's climate, Space Sci. Rev.Space Sci. Rev., 93, #1/2, 175-185., 93, #1/2, 175-185.

•Svensmark, H., and Friis-Christensen, E., 1997. Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage - a Svensmark, H., and Friis-Christensen, E., 1997. Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage - a missing link in solar-climate relationships, missing link in solar-climate relationships, J. Atmos. & Solar-Terr. Phys.J. Atmos. & Solar-Terr. Phys., 59, 1225-1232. , 59, 1225-1232.

•Svensmark, Henrik, and Friis-Christensen, Eigil, 2000. Reply to comments on "Variation of cosmic ray flux Svensmark, Henrik, and Friis-Christensen, Eigil, 2000. Reply to comments on "Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage - a missing link in solar-climate relationships", and global cloud coverage - a missing link in solar-climate relationships", J. Atm. & Solar-Terr. Phys.J. Atm. & Solar-Terr. Phys., 62, , 62, 79-80. 79-80.

•Yu, Fangqun, 2002. Altitude variations of cosmic ray induced production of aerosols: Implications for Yu, Fangqun, 2002. Altitude variations of cosmic ray induced production of aerosols: Implications for global cloudiness and climate global cloudiness and climate J. Geophys. Res. (Space Physics)J. Geophys. Res. (Space Physics), DOI: 10.1029/2001JA000248., DOI: 10.1029/2001JA000248.

•-5007.-5007.