Introduction to water resources impacts modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP, Trieste [email protected]

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troduction to water resources impacts modell Erika Coppola, ICTP, Trieste [email protected]

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Introduction to water resources impacts modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP, Trieste [email protected]. Impact modelling : Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to water resources Hydrologic implications of climate change for water resources Focus of the school - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Introduction to water resources impacts modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP, Trieste [email protected]

Page 1: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Introduction to water resources impacts modellingErika Coppola, ICTP, Trieste

[email protected]

Page 2: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

• Impact modelling: Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to water resources

• Hydrologic implications of climate change for water resources

• Focus of the school• Uncertainty in a Climate Change

scenario

Page 3: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

• Defining V&A assessment– Often V&A is analysis, not

assessment– Why? Because the focus is on

biophysical impacts, e.g., hydrologic response, crop yields, forests, etc.

• However, assessment is an integrating process requiring the interface of physical and social science and public policy

Page 4: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Examples of Adaptation –

Water Supply• Construction/modification of physical infrastructure

– Canal linings– Closed conduits instead of open channels– Integrating separate reservoirs into a single system– Reservoirs/mydroplants/delivery systems– Raising dam wall height– Increasing canal size– Removing sediment from reservoirs for more

storage– Interbasin water transfers

Page 5: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply (continued)

• Adaptive management of existing water supply systems

– Change operating rules– Use conjunctive

surface/groundwater supply– Physically integrate reservoir

operation system– Coordinate supply/demand

Page 6: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply (continued)

• Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology– Domestic

• Municipal and in-home re-use• Leak repair• Rainwater collection for nonpotable uses• Low flow appliances• Dual supply systems (potable and nonpotable)

– Agricultural• Irrigation timing and efficiency• Lining of canals, closed conduits• Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent• High value/low water use crops• Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision

application irrigation systems• Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain

water

Page 7: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Examples of Adaptation –

Water Supply (continued)• Policy, conservation, efficiency, and

technology (continued)– Industrial

• Water re-use and recycling• Closed cycle and/or air cooling• More efficient hydropower turbines• Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers

– Energy (hydropower)• Reservoir re-operation• Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat)• Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations• Low head run of the river hydropower• Market/price-driven transfers to other

activities• Using water price to shift water use between

sectors

Page 8: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Tools in Water Resource V&A Studies

• Hydrologic models (physical processes)– Simulate river basin hydrologic processes– Examples – water balance, rainfall-runoff,

lake simulation, stream water quality models

• Water resource models (physical and management)– Simulate current and future supply/demand

of system– Operating rules and policies – Environmental impacts– Hydroelectric production– Decision support systems (DSS)

for policy interaction• Economic models

Page 9: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Snow Accumulation

Precipitation

Sublimation

Snowmelt Runoff

Evaporation

Recharge

Infiltration

Evapotranspiration

SurfaceRunoff

Groundwater flow

Discharge

Mountain FrontRecharge

SurfaceRunoff

Discharge

Studying the Hydrologic Cycle at Various Scales

Globally: 86% of Evap. and 78% of Precip. occur over the Globally: 86% of Evap. and 78% of Precip. occur over the oceans oceans

Page 10: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Distribution of Freshwater

Page 11: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Source: Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing University of California Irvine

Page 12: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Two Primary Water Resources/Hydrology Challenges:

• Hydrologic Hazards ( Floods and Droughts)

• Water Supply Requirements ( Quantity and Quality)

Page 13: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

“General” and Widespread Floods

Bangladesh floods in 2004

August 19, 1993

August 14, 1993

Mississippi RiverMissouri River

Illinois River

MISSISSIPPI Floods 1993

Source: Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing University of California Irvine

Page 14: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Drought most visible in falling reservoir levels

Lake Powell, Colorado River, USA

Normal Years

Recent SouthwestDrought 2004

Source: J. Kane SRP 2004

Page 15: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Climate Change and Hydrologic Implications

• Precipitation amount– Global average increase – Marked regional differences

• Precipitation frequency and intensity– Less frequent, more intense (Giorgi et al.,

2011;Trenberth et al., 2003)

• Evaporation and transpiration– Increase total evaporation

Page 16: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Climate Change and Hydrologic Implications

(continued)• Changes in runoff– Despite global precipitation increases,

areas of substantial runoff decrease• Coastal zones

– Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers– Severe storm-surge flooding

• Water quality– Lower flows could lead to higher

contaminant concentrations– Higher flows could lead to greater leaching

and sediment transport

Page 17: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Global Global WWarming And Hydrologic Cycle arming And Hydrologic Cycle ConnectionConnection

Heating

Temperature Evaporation

Water Holding Capacity

Atmospheric Moisture

Temperature oFSat

ura

ted

Vap

or

Pre

ssu

re

t t+20

Green House Effect

Rain Intensity

Drought Flood

FloodDrought

Created by: Gi-Hyeon Park

Page 18: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

The Recent Drought in Historical Context:

Reconstruction of Proxy records:

- Analysis of Tree Rings and Stable Isotopes

How Extreme Can it Get ?????

Page 19: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Sept 1951 Elephant Butte, NM Jan 2003Middle Rio Grande Basin, NM AD Grissino-Mayer, Baisan,

Morino, & Swetnam, 2001

Late 16th centMegadrought

GreatDrought

Highlyvariable

1250 1350 1450 1550 1650 1750 1 850 1950 2050 2150 2250 2350 2450 2550 2650 2750

Rec

on

stru

cted

PD

SI

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

Past Present Future

Recent US Southwest Drought in Historical Context

Page 20: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Two Primary Water Resources/Hydrology Challenges:

• Hydrologic Hazards ( Floods and Droughts)

• Water Supply Requirements ( Quantity and Quality)

Page 21: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Projected Regions of Water Stress

Source: Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing University of California Irvine

Page 22: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Distribution of Fresh Water Use

90.8 33.4%

17.1%

49.5%

460

7.0%6.0%

87.0%

36.47

18.6%

22.0%59.4%

117

60.0%17.0%

23.0%

467.34

45.2%

13.1%

41.7%

380

4.0% 3.0%

93.0% Agriculture

Industry

Domestic

Fresh Water Use(109 Cubic Meters)

Water Source

Water Use

USA China India

Russia Japan Brazil

92%6%

2%

70.3Iran

Source: Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing University of California Irvine

Page 23: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Asia

Europ

e

Midd

le Eas

t & N

orth

Afri

ca

Sub-S

ahar

an A

frica

North

Am

erica

Centra

l Am

erica

& C

aribb

ean

South

Am

erica

Ocean

ia

Wor

ld

Pro

ject

ed P

opu

latio

n In

crea

se 2

000-

202

5

26%

-4%

52%

71%

17%

36%33%

30% 29%

Projected Population Growth Distribution

1995 world population

5.7 Billion

2025 Projection

8.3 Billion

Source: Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing University of California Irvine

Page 24: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Our projections of future water use have been flawed.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Cub

ic K

ilom

eter

s pe

r Y

ear

Actual Global Water Withdrawals

Projections

SOURCE: Dr. Peter H. Gleick, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development

Page 25: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Rapid Change in Global Demographics

Source: United Nations, 1996

Page 26: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Population Without Access to Improved Water Supply: 2000

300

693

783 26

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Africa Asia Lat.Amer/Carib. Oceania Europe

Mill

ion

peop

le Total: 1,100 million

SOURCE: Dr. Peter H. Gleick, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development

Page 27: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

The school focus

Page 28: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Hydrology Model• Critical questions

– How does rainfall on a catchment translate into flow in a river?

– What pathways does water follow as it moves through a catchment?

– How does movement along these pathways impact the magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of river flows?

Page 29: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Data Requirements• Prescribed supply (riverflow given as

fixed time series)

– Time series data of riverflows (headflows) cfs

– River network (connectivity)• Alternative supply via physical hydrology

(watersheds generate riverflow)

– Watershed attributes• Area, land cover . . .

– Climate• Precipitation, temperature,

windspeed, and relative humidity

Page 30: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Data Requirements (continued)

• Water demand data– Municipal and industrial demand

• Aggregated by sector (manufacturing, tourism, etc.)

• Disaggregated by population (e.g., use/capita, use/socioeconomic group)

– Agricultural demands• Aggregated by area (# hectares, annual

water-use/hectare)• Disaggregated by crop water requirements

– Ecosystem demands (in-stream flow requirements)

Page 31: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Calibration and Validation• Model evaluation criteria

– Flows along mainstream and tributaries

– Reservoir storage and release– Water diversions from other basins– Agricultural water demand and

delivery– Municipal and industrial water

demands and deliveries– Groundwater storage trends and

levels

Page 32: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Final Aim of our exercise

Page 33: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Uncertainty in climate change impact assessment in water

resources

• Global climate models (GCMs) use different but plausible parameterisations to represent the climate system.

• Sometimes due to sub-grid scale processes (<250km) or limited understanding.

Page 34: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Uncertainty in climate change impact assessment

• Therefore climate projections differ by institution:

2°C

Page 35: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Multiple ensembles for various prescribed temperature changes

9 model runs

Simon Gosling, Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading

Global Average Annual Runoff

Page 36: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

The ensemble mean

But what degree of uncertainty is there?

Global Average Annual Runoff Change from Present (%)

Page 37: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Uncertainty in simulationsNumber of models in agreement

of an increase in runoff

Page 38: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Catchment-scale Seasonal Runoff

The Liard The Okavango The Yangtze

Page 39: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Seasonal Runoff

Agreement of increased snow-melt induced runoff

Agreement of dry-season becoming drier

Less certainty regarding wet-season changes

Large uncertainty throughout the year

Page 40: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

What can we do to decrease the uncertanty

• Further downscaling: Regional climate modelling

• Bias correction techniques

• ENSEMBLE approach:Dynamical

downscalingStatistical

downscaling

VALUE European COST

project

Page 41: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Ensuring Water in a Changing WorldEnsuring Water in a Changing World

International Water Cycle Research International Water Cycle Research Initiatives Addressing These Issues:Initiatives Addressing These Issues:

- WCRP - WCRP (GEWEX, CLIVAR, CLiC)(GEWEX, CLIVAR, CLiC)

- UNESCO Initiatives - UNESCO Initiatives (PUB, HELP)(PUB, HELP)

- And Many National Programs- And Many National Programs

Source: Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing University of California Irvine

Page 42: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

P

E

Qs

Ss

Sg

Qg

Ig

Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models

Mesoscale Models

SVATs

Hydrologic/Routing Models

Water Resources Applications

GEWEX

CLIVAR

Hydrologic Services

Water resources management agencies

GEWEX Role in Climate ResearchGEWEX Role in Climate Research

CLiC

Monsoon Processes

Source: Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing University of California Irvine

Page 43: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

MODEL

PARAMETERESTIMATION

DATA

If the “World” of Watershed Hydrology Was Perfect!

Requirements and State of Hydrologic Forecasting

Source: Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing University of California Irvine

Page 44: Introduction to water resources impacts  modelling Erika Coppola, ICTP,  Trieste coppolae@ictp.it

Thanks!