Introduction to “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan”

Haoshi Hirata (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)

International symposium “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan”

27 May 2009 at ERI, Univ. Tokyo

National earthquake prediction research programs in Japan Selected focuses of the previous programs (1999-

2008) : “new national resaearch programs”- Understanding of physical and chemical processes leading to an

earthquake- Observation for real time monitoring of crust and mantle activities- Forecast simulation technology- Developing new technologies such as an ocean bottom

observations Based on these activities, a new focus of the

current program (2009-2013)- Create “earthquake forecast systems” for Japan

• Quantitatively forecast time, place, and magnitude for forthcoming earthquakes

Earthquake forecast system Framework to test forecast

accuracy- Project: Earthquake Forecast

System based on Seismicity of Japan• Buildup existing testable

forecast models• Create the framework that can

“rigorously test” such models• Explore the possibility of next-

generation testable models• Others• http://wwweic.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/

ZISINyosoku

Front page

Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)

Next talk by D. Schorlemmer http://www.cseptesting.org/ ERI joined the CSEP project

Front page

CSEP Testing Center at ERI Installed last summer by D.

Schorlemmer & F. Euchner- Quantitative testing of earthquake forecast

models

The earthquake forecast testing experiment is carried out this year

- Use the existing Testing Center - Call for

• Testable models• Testing regions• Evaluation methods

- TODAY: Mutual understanding among the experiment participants

Tripple-S ALM RI

Program Existing Testing Center for Japan Proposed testable models & evaluation methods Exploring the possibility of next-generation testable

models- GPS, seismo-electromagnetism, data assimilation, and seismicity

Panel discussion on the testing experiment