Introduction to TVSEP panel database

Rattiya S. Lippe and Hermann WaibelInstitute of Development and Agricultural Economics

Leibniz University Hannover

Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities 12-13 December 2017 Bangkok, Thailand

The TVSEP idea

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TVSEP follows the concept of German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)

longitudinal survey of approximately 11,000 private households in Germany during 1984 to 2014 (release April 2016), and Federal States of East-Germany during 1990 to 2014.

produced by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW)

variables include household composition, employment, occupations, earnings, health and satisfaction indicators

Why do we need TVSEP in Asia?

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Rapid structural and economic change, particularly in rural and peri-urban areas of emerging market economies pose many challenges;

High quality panel data sparse in developing countries and emerging market economies;

Panel data offer better understanding of long term dynamics at household and individual level;

TVSEP builds on outcomes of DFG Research Unit 756 (2007 – 2013)“Impact of shocks on the vulnerability to poverty”

5 panel waves in 440 villages / ~ 4000 households

Migrant tracking survey in Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City in 2010

What can TVSEP contribute?...

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Many panel data: short-lived, relatively small, focused on particular issues, or broad LSMS-types

Value-added of TVSEP database:

Complete agricultural production and income portfolio assessment

Particular focus on shocks, risks, poverty and vulnerability dynamics

Importance of behavioral drivers of development

Explicit consideration of migration (including migrant tracking)

Information at village level to define instrument variables

Sample size at provincial level is larger than existing panel database

...What can TVSEP contribute?

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Long-term cooperation with local scientific partners

Stimulate new research conducted by national research and development organizations in Thailand and Vietnam

Knowledge transfer, e.g. joint publications

Capacity building, e.g. trainings on tablet-based data collection, data cleaning etc.

Supporting and maintaining research infrastructure for high quality socio-economic panel data in Thailand and Vietnam

Organization of TVSEP

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Data AnalysisData Collection

Researchers LUH/ UGö

Output High impact Journal Publications Project Working Paper Series National Conferences International Conferences

Output Provincial yearbooks Policy Workshops Add on projects

Database Center

Database Manager

Project Management Team (LUH/UGö)

Monitoring & Supervision

International Researchers

National Researchers

(TH/VN)

International Advisory Panel

Data Management Data Use

VietnamData Collection

Centre

ThailandData Collection

Centre

Proposal /Paper

Cleaned data

Cleaned data

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Data collection center managers

Mai Thanh Tu

Vietnam Thailand

Somkid Naprom

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National research coordinators

Vietnam Thailand

Assit. Prof. Dr. Trung Thanh Nguyen Assoc. Prof. Dr. Suwanna Praneetvatakul

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ThailandThailand

Laos

Vietnam

China

Myanmar

Cambodia

MalaysiaMalaysia

Dak Lak

Ha Tinh

Thua Thien Hue

Buri Ram

Ubon

Ratchathani

Nakhon

Phanom

HANOI

BANGKOK

HO CHI MINH CITY

Gulf of ThailandAndaman

Sea

South China Sea

Survey locations

7th Wave Survey - 2017: Thailand : 1914 households Vietnam : 1898 households

HH Sampling strategy: Province: purposive selection 3-stage cluster sample: sub-

district, village and household

Migrants survey: 1st wave in 2010 2nd wave in 2018

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Attrition rate

Average attrition rate is below 5 percent Comparisons of livelihood of HH and individual HH member over time

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4381 4284 42044006

3834 3812

Contents of HH questionnaire

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Household

GPS

HH Member characteristics

Remittances

Expenditure

Assets Housing

Income

Land

Agriculture & Natural resource

Wage employment

Self-employment

Shock & Risk

Severity, financial consequence, ex-post coping measures

Subjective assessment of well-being

Aspirations

Consequence of expected risks, ex-ante mitigation measures

Finance

Borrowing

Lending

Savings

Public transfers

Insurances

Character Traits Social network, Religion Investment &

Disinvestment

Research areas using TVSEP data

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Poverty dynamics

Risks and behavioural aspects

Migration

Agriculture, environment and climate

Finance

Rural non-farm economy

Demography, Gender and Inequality

Access to TVSEP database

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1. Submitting 2-3 page research outline to TVSEP Research Database Manager (lippe@ifgb.uni-hannover.de)

• specifiying sections, variables, country and panel wave

• questionnaires www.tvsep.de

2. Approved by Project Management Team (LUH/ UGö)

3. Signing confidentiality agreement

4. Sending draft working paper

5. Publishing paper and acknowledge source of data

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For more information

www.tvsep.de

Back up slides

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2007 2008 2010 2011 2013 2016 2017

Total 4381 4284 4204 1588 4006 3834 3812

Thailand 2186 2136 2105 916 1996 1941 1914

Buriram 819 799 792 761 734 720

Ubon 970 950 934 916 874 863 865

Nakhon Panom 397 387 379 361 344 329

Vietnam 2195 2148 2099 672 2010 1893 1898

Ha Thin 720 713 701 659 635 611

Hue 718 699 683 672 648 614 641

Dak Lak 757 736 715 703 644 646

TVSEP HH all years

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District Sub-district Village HH

Ha Thin 10 36 72 611

Hue 9 36 72 641

Dak Lak 13 38 76 646

32 110 220 1898

Samplings in Viet Nam

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District Sub-district Village HH

Ha Thin 16 41 82 720

Hue 20 49 98 865

Dak Lak 9 20 40 329

45 110 220 1914

Samplings in Thailand

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1.1 Sample design - Thailand

Stage Sampling unit

Selection criterion Sampling probability

1st Sub-district

Strata: Provinces - with approximately proportional sample size ar

PPS systematic random sample with implicit stratification by population density

r rs

rs

s

a m

m

2nd Village Simple random PPS sample of 2 villages from each sampled sub-district

rsv

rsv

v

b m

m

3rd Household EPS systematic random sample with implicit stratification by household size

rsv

c

m , c=10

3-stage cluster sample, sample size 2 200, final cluster size 10

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1.1 Sample design – Thailand (Results)

Rural

population

Number of

HHs

Share of provincial

strata

No. of sub-districts

Sample size (HHs)

Selection probability for

each HH

Buriram 956,497 228,823 37.6% 184 820 0.3584%

Ubon Ratchath. 1,142,219 271,213 44.6% 215 980 0.3613%

N. Phanom 444,562 108,662 17.9% 95 400 0.3681%

Total/Average 2,543,278 608,698 100.0% 494 2,200 0.3614%

Data: Village database 2005, Community Development Department, Ministry of the Interior

Sampling frame:

BMN database of rural households 2006, Community Development Dept., MoI

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• Spatial distribution of sample:

• e.g. Ubon Ratchathani

• fill colours: population density

• green outline: sample

Ubon Ratchathani

1.1 Sample design -Thailand

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1.2 Sample design - Vietnam

• Different situation from Thailand:

• high heterogeneity in terms of

– agro-ecological conditions (coast – plain – mountains)

– population density

• Definition of strata within provinces

• oversampling of small strata

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Stratum definition Vietnam

I = coastal area

II = rice plain

III = mountainous area

Dak Lak Ha Tinh

Hue

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1.2 Sample design - Vietnam

Stage Sampling unit

Selection criterion

1st Sub-district

Strata: Agro-ecological zones within provinces, non-proportional sample size ar

Random sample with probability proportional to estimated size

2nd Village Simple random sample with probability proportional to size of 2 villages from each sampled sub-district

3rd Household Equal probability systematic random sample with implicit stratification by household size

3-stage cluster sample, sample size 2 200, final cluster size 10

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Population share

Sample allocation

selection probability range

Rural

Population

Population density (1/km²) of total of prov. absolute rel.

Dak Lak 1,335,193 102 41% 760 35%

Rice plain 452,982 64 34% 260 34% 0.165% - 0.603%

Mountainous area 882,211 145 66% 500 66% 0.164% - 1.766%

Thua Thien-Hue 788,763 156 24% 720 33%

Coastal area 376,693 322 48% 240 33% 0.224% - 1.074%

Rice Plain 357,612 179 45% 240 33% 0.175% - 0.575%

Mountainous area 54,458 29 7% 240 33% 0.624% - 5.85%

Ha Tinh 1,147,693 191 35% 720 33%

Coastal area 567,609 246 49% 360 50% 0.196% - 0.783%

Rice Plain 338,781 489 30% 200 28% 0.171% - 0.536%

Mountainous area 241,304 80 21% 160 22% 0.147% - 0.724%

Total: 3,271,649 2200

Source: Provincial Statistical Year Books 2005, General Statistics Office, Hanoi.

1.2 Sample design – Vietnam (Results)