Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Opportunities, issues and Challenges

Dr. Achala AbeysinghePrincipal Researcher/ Team Leader

Global Climate Law, Policy and GovernanceAchala.abeysinghe@iied.org

Focus of the presentation• Overall analysis• Provisions of the Paris Agreement• What’s next?

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Overall analysis• ‘A major win for multilateralism and

climate diplomacy’

• ‘Truly global agreement’

• ‘Unprecedented global collaboration on an issue where divisions were deep and stakes were high’

• ‘Proved that political leadership, combining economic incentives and peer pressure, guided intelligently by the United Nations , can produce the effective global agreements’

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More good news• Under the Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action, in Paris: 11,000 commitments are

registered, including:• 2,250 cities and 150 regions covering 1.25 billion inhabitants• 2,025 companies, 424 investors, • and 235 civil society organizations.

One third of the 2,000 biggest global companies — with a market value equivalent to the combined GDP of China, Germany, and Japan — committed to climate action.

Institutional investors have launched a portfolio decarbonization coalition, surpassing a $600 billion target in just days

Universities are divesting from fossil fuels;

15 of the world’s 20 largest banks — totaling close to $2 trillion in market value — have made climate commitments.

Why is the Paris Agreement important?• Legally binding agreement• Universal participation• Many new elements to address climate change

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PreambleArticle 1: DefinitionsArticle 2: purposeArticle 3: Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCsArticle 4: MitigationArticle 5: Greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs and REDD+Article 6: Cooperative approachesArticle 7: AdaptationArticle 8: Loss and damage Article 9: Finance Article 10: Technology development and transferArticle 11: Capacity buildingArticle 12: Climate change awareness and educationArticle 13: TransparencyArticle 14: Global stocktake Article 15: Facilitating implementation and compliance

Article 16: Conference of the Parties serving as meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA)Article 17: SecretariatArticle 18: SBI and SBSTAArticle 19: Other bodies and institutional arrangements to serve the AgreementArticle 20: Signature and ratificationArticle 21: Entry into forceArticle 22: AmendmentsArticle 23: AnnexesArticle 24: Dispute settlementArticle 25: VotingArticle 26: DepositoryArticle 27: ReservationsArticle 28: Withdrawal Article 29: Languages

Paris Agreement: The house build on 3 key pillars• Legal Rigour• Participation• Effectiveness

The legal rigour• Internationally legally binding agreement with provisions for entry

into force (follows the treaty structure as of Vienna Convention of Law of Treaties)• Key obligations in the operative paragraphs of the Agreement (though

somewhat weaker than expected)• A mechanism of compliance is established

Participation• 150 world leaders at the Paris COP• 186 countries have submitted INDCs• All parties to prepare, communicate and maintain INDCs• All parties to participate in transparency framework

Key provisions• Global goals: well below 2 degrees, pursue 1.5 degree target• Mitigation: every country to submit a national climate action plan

(Nationally Determined Contribution) every 5 years• Adaptation: Global adaptation goal is established• Loss and damage: further steps to be taken to address loss and damage

due to climate impacts• Finance: Developed countries to provide financial support. (100 billion

USD as the floor of financial support).• Capacity building: support for developing countries on their capacity

building efforts.• Technology: Technology Framework established

Key provisions• Transparency: A transparency framework established• Global stocktake: A global stocktake to happen every 5 years starting

from 2023• Compliance: a compliance mechanism is established for facilitating

implementation and promoting compliance

Entry into Force• This Agreement shall enter into force on the thirtieth day after the

date on which at least 55 Parties to the Convention accounting in total for at least an estimated 55 percent of the total global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.

Entry into Force• Entry into force of an international Agreement is the

official moment an international agreement takes effect fully and officially.• 3 steps for entry into force• Signing the Agreement• Domestic ratification• Entry into Force

Meeting the two triggers according to the Article 21 of the Paris Agreement

Art 21 : The Agreement shall enter into force on the 30th day after the date on which at least 55 Parties to the Convention accounting in total for at least an estimated 55 % of total global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession with the Depositary.

At least Accounting for 55% of total Global GHGs

At least55 Parties

Its not all perfect• No long term pathway for mitigation• No commitment to fulfil targets under NDCs• No replenishment cycle for the Financial Mechanism under the Paris

agreement • New target setting for climate finance postponed till 2025

Further rules to be developed

• Nationally Determined Contributions• New market mechanisms• Support for adaptation• Sources of public finance• Support for technology development and transfer• Capacity building• Transparency• Global stocktake • Compliance mechanism

However…ambition can be raised

What’s next?• Signing of the Agreement from 22 April 2016 to 21 April 2017 (Signing

Ceremony in New York)• Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement to start its work from

2016• Ratification starts• Ex-ante assessment of pre 2020 action in 2018• The Agreement to come into force in 2020• Implementation, implementation, implementation….