Introduction to SUSPLAN - AAEE · [email protected] 10th IAEE European Conference Vienna, 8...
Transcript of Introduction to SUSPLAN - AAEE · [email protected] 10th IAEE European Conference Vienna, 8...
Introduction to SUSPLANIntroduction to SUSPLAN
Bjørn H. Bakken, PhDBjørn H. Bakken, PhDSINTEF Energy ResearchSINTEF Energy Research
[email protected]@sintef.no
10th IAEE European Conference10th IAEE European ConferenceViennaVienna, 8 September 2009
2009-09-082
IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Trondheim (1450)
Oslo (450)
Independent non-profit researchorganization established in 1950
by the Norwegian Institute ofTechnology (NTH)
Income 2007: € 290 mill.
Employees: 1,900
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The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)
University of Oslo (UiO), Faculty of mathematics and natural sciences
Representing resources of: 24,500 full-time students1,500 scientific employees
150 Post. Doc750 PhD Students
Joint use oflaboratories and
instruments
SINTEF employeesteach and supervise
at NTNU
NTNU personnelcontribute in
SINTEF projects
Academic partnershipsAcademic partnerships
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OBJECTIVE:To develop a comprehensive set of robust guidelines forinfrastructure and network decision makers and power distributorsregionally and across Europe.
The guidelines will be established on the basis of extensive regionaland trans-national scenario studies.
They will consist of strategies, recommendations, criteria andbenchmarks for more efficient integration of renewable energysources (RES) into future infrastructures in the time perspective of2030-2050
Duration: 36 months (September 2008 – August 2011)
Consortium: 16 partners
Coordinator: SINTEF Energy Research, [email protected]
- SUSPLAN -- SUSPLAN -Development of regional and Pan-European guidelines for moreDevelopment of regional and Pan-European guidelines for more
efficient integration of renewable energy into future infrastructuresefficient integration of renewable energy into future infrastructures
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NORWAYCoordinator:
• SINTEFStakeholders:
• Statkraft,Statnett
POLANDPartner:
• EC BREC IEOStakeholder:• (Pomorskie)
SCOTLAND, UKPartners:
• UHI MillenniumInstitute, CnESStakeholder:• nPOWER
THE NETHERLANDSPartner:
• ECNStakeholder:
• (GTS)
GERMANYPartners:
• Fraunhofer-ISI, MVV, DenaStakeholders:• EnBW, ZMB,
E.ONRuhrgas, EWE
Netz,Vattenfall,
RWE
CZECH REPUBLICPartner:
• ENVIROS
ROMANIAPartner:• ENERO
BULGARIAPartner:• BSREC
Stakeholder:• Sofia EDC
SERBIAPartner:
• StatkraftWesternBalkans
AUSTRIAPartners:
• EEG• Verbund-AHP
SPAINPartner:
• UP ComillasStakeholders:
• RED Eléctricia,Iberdrola
ITALYPartner:
• CESI-RICERCAStakeholders:• Terna, GSE
The SUSPLAN ConsortiumThe SUSPLAN Consortium
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Tools
Strategies
Scenarios
SUSPLAN work packagesSUSPLAN work packages
WP 1(SINTEF)
Setupof
Scenarios
WP 2 (EEG)Grid related
regional scenarios2030-2050
Project management (SINTEF)
WP 6(Dena)
Dissemi-nation
&Exploitation
WP 3 (ECN)Trans-national
scenarios2030-2050
WP 5 (Fraunhofer)Implementation strategies
for decision makers
WP 4 (SINTEF)Scenario modelling tools
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WP 2: Regional scenario studiesWP 2: Regional scenario studies
Islands• Responsible: UHI• Partner: CnES
Northern Europe• Responsible: SINTEF
West/Central Europe• Responsible: ECN• Partner: MVV, Dena
North-East• Responsible: EC BREC
IEO• Partner: ENVIROS
South-East• Responsible: ENERO• Partner: BSREC
South-West• Responsible: UP Comillas
South• Responsible: CESI-R
Western Balkans• Responsible: SWB• Partners: BSREC, EEG
Alpine• Responsible: AHP• Partner: EEG
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Difficult future for high RESintegration. Few new technologies
are available, and low interest toinvest. Mainly centralized
development with traditionaltechnologies
New technologies are available,but low interest to invest and
use. Mainly centralizeddevelopment, but with new
technologies.
Positive future for high RESintegration, but too low
technology development rate.Mainly decentralized development
Positive future for high RESintegration. Both market pull
and technology pushexisting.
4 Storylines (2020-) 2030-20504 Storylines (2020-) 2030-2050
Fast tech developmentMajor break-throughsseveral technologies,RES, grids, demand
side
Slow tech developmentNo major technology
break-throughs; gradualdevelopment of
current technologies
Positive public attitudeHigh environmental focus in population and business.
Reduced energy consumption and demand for environmentally friendly products
Indifferent public attitudeLow environmental focus in population and business.
Higher energy consumption and no demand for environmentally friendly products or services
GreenGreenYellowYellow
BlueBlueRedRed
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SUSPLAN Storylines
Scenario setup 2030-2050Scenario setup 2030-2050
Based on existing studies
‘Today’
2010 2020 20402030 2050
Shar
e of
RES
Time (Year)
Min. RES levels
Scenario analysesRegional / Trans-national
Assume that2020 goals
are reachedbefore 2030
Electricity market model of EuropeElectricity market model of Europe A fully integrated Europeanelectricity market will be used as a
common reference between theSUSPLAN regions
Stochastic market model includingwind and hydro data
Includes non-RES technologies likenuclear and CCS in the market
balance
Includes also the regions andcountries NOT directly analyzed in
SUSPLAN
Similar approach for gasinfrastructures?
A modeling approach for moreA modeling approach for moreefficient integration of renewableefficient integration of renewableenergy into future infrastructuresenergy into future infrastructures
Bjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesBjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesSINTEF Energy ResearchSINTEF Energy Research
Hans AuerHans AuerEEG, TU-WienEEG, TU-Wien
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Properties ofProperties ofSUSPLAN scenariosSUSPLAN scenarios
Long time perspective 2030-2050 There is a strong political will in Europe to promote
sustainable development and security of supply The share of RES in the European system will be large. We
shall analyse the need for infrastructures to integrate theRES
RES-E, RES-Heat and RES-Gas are considered SUSPLAN covers the stationary part of the system, not the
transport sector. However, electric vehicles and biofuelsmight influence the energy balance
Two main factors for calculating the share of RES are energydemand and volume of RES
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Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Electricity market model of EuropeElectricity market model of Europe A fully integrated European
electricity market will be used as acommon reference between theSUSPLAN regions
Stochastic market model includingwind and hydro data
Includes non-RES technologieslike nuclear and CCS in the marketbalance
Includes also the regions andcountries NOT directly analyzed inSUSPLAN
Similar approach for gasinfrastructures?
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Electricity market model (EMPS)Electricity market model (EMPS)
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Hydro inflow in Norway 2030 (GWh/week)
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1 10 19 28 37 46
0 percentile 25 percentile 50 percentile 75 percentile 100 percentile
0
100
200
300
1 10 19 28 37 46
0 percentile 25 percentile 50 percentile 75 percentile 100 percentile
Wind and solar in Norway 2030 (GWh/week)
StochasticStochasticrenewablerenewableresourcesresourcesin Europeanin Europeancountries...countries...
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...results in...results invariablevariablemarket pricesmarket prices
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 10 19 28 37 46
0 percentile 25 percentile 50 percentile 75 percentile 100 percentile
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 10 19 28 37 46
0 percentile 25 percentile 50 percentile 75 percentile 100 percentile
Norway 2030 (€cent/kWh)
Austria 2030 (€cent/kWh)
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Electricity flowElectricity flowAverage exchange from Norway to Sweden (2030)Average exchange from Norway to Sweden (2030)
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
1 1461 2921 4381 5841 7301
MWh/h
Hours
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Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies
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GreenNet: Generation capacityGreenNet: Generation capacity(Norway)(Norway)
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GreenNet: New wind projectsGreenNet: New wind projects(Norway)(Norway)
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GreenNet: New capacity costGreenNet: New capacity cost(Wind, Norway)(Wind, Norway)
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Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies
Analyze the need for regional infrastructures• Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and
RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency
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Heat central
Boiler
DH Network
El load
El network
El source
Gas network
Gas source
Heat load
Tap water load
Heat source
Gas load
Aggregated area model in Aggregated area model in eTransporteTransportAggregated area loadsAggregated sources
Ref: www.sintef.no/etransport
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Gas 1
Waste 2
Waste 3
CHP 1
CHP 2
CHP 3
Elspot
El market
Boiler
El loadEl network
Heat network
Heat load
Storage 3
Storage 2
Heat feed-in
Simple area model in Simple area model in eTransporteTransport
Ref: www.sintef.no/etransport
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hours
MWh/h
El load 2010
Heat load 2010
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hours
EUR/MWh
Elspot price 2010
Utility buyback price
Input: Load and price profilesInput: Load and price profiles
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Rank and timing of investment alternativesRank and timing of investment alternatives
• Investment cost - resource, plant, storage and network
• Operational cost - fuel, fixed cost etc
• Environmental cost - emission penalties
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
1000
EU
RO CHP 2, El boiler (2010)
CHP 1 (2010)CHP 3, El boiler (2010)El boiler (2010)
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0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hours
MWh/h
CHP heat
Boiler heat
Diurnal operation profilesDiurnal operation profiles
Heat production
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hours
MWh/h CHP electricity
Elspot purchase
Utility buyback
El prod. + purchase
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Delayed commissioning of waste plantDelayed commissioning of waste plant
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2010_to_2015 2015_to_2020 2020_to_2025
1000
EU
RO CHP 1
CHP 2, El boilerCHP 3, El boilerEl boiler
Gas 1
Waste 2
Waste 3
CHP 1
CHP 2
CHP 3
Elspot
El market
Boiler
El load
El network
Heat network
Heat load
Storage 3
Storage 2
Heat feed -in
Gas 1
Waste 2
Waste 3
CHP 1
CHP 2
CHP 3
Elspot
El market
Boiler
El load
El network
Heat network
Heat load
Storage 3
Storage 2
Heat feed -in
Gas 1
Waste 2
Waste 3
CHP 1
CHP 2
CHP 3
Elspot
El market
Boiler
El load
El network
Heat network
Heat load
Storage 3
Storage 2
Heat feed -in
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
1000
EU
RO CHP 1
CHP 2, El boilerCHP 3, El boilerEl boiler
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Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies
Analyze the need for regional infrastructures• Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and
RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency
Analyze the need for trans-national infrastructures• Detailed results from the 9 regions are correlated through the common
electricity market from Step 1• Correlation also with trans-national gas model
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Connections between regional andConnections between regional andtrans-national scenario studiestrans-national scenario studies
4 STORYLINES/SCENARIOS
9
REGIONS
Regional scenario analysis:Regional output → Trans-nation input:
• RES penetration + RES/energy mix per region• (RES) export/import (firm/intermittent) per region• Infrastructure needs + costs per region• Prices per region
Trans-national scenario analysis:
Min. 4 Transnational scenarios
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Connections between regional andConnections between regional andtrans-national scenario studiestrans-national scenario studies
Three important aspects in the regional – trans-nationaldimension of more efficient integration of RES into futureinfrastructures:
• Trans-national infrastructures can allow for exploitation of RESlocated far from consumption centres
• Trans-national infrastructures can reduce the problem ofintermittent RES
• Utilisation of RES in regions with large consumption can reduceneed for trans-national infrastructures
Electricity and gas networks considered in parallel
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Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies
Analyze the need for regional infrastructures• Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and
RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency
Analyze the need for trans-national infrastructures• Detailed results from the 9 regions are correlated through the common
electricity market from Step 1• Correlation also with trans-national gas model
Verify and finalize the results• If necessary, new calculations to ensure consistency between regional
and trans-national level with electricity market as main reference
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Summary of approachSummary of approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies
Analyze the need for regional infrastructures• Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and
RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency
Analyze the need for trans-national infrastructures• Detailed results from the 9 regions are correlated through the common
electricity market from Step 1• Correlation also with trans-national gas model
Verify and finalize the results• If necessary, new calculations to ensure consistency between regional
and trans-national level with electricity market as main reference
A modelling approach for moreA modelling approach for moreefficient integration of renewableefficient integration of renewableenergy into future infrastrucutresenergy into future infrastrucutres
Bjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesBjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesSINTEF Energy ResearchSINTEF Energy Research
Hans AuerHans AuerEEG, TU-WienEEG, TU-Wien
ContactContact: [email protected]: [email protected]