Prospective Environmental

Assessments

Introduction to Scenario

Analysis Techniques (Part 3)

Dr. Andy Spörri (andy.spoerri@ebp.ch)

Ernst Basler + Partner AG, Resources, Energy + Climate, Zollikerstrasse 65, 8702 Zollikon

March 7, 2017; HCI J7

Schedule of today (Lecture 3)

» Short wrap-up of lecture 2

» FSA Focus B

» Phase 3: Projection

» Phase 4: Scenario selection and interpretation

» Linking FSA to modeling and assessment methods

» Material flow analysis (MFA)

» Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)

» Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT)

» Typology & characteristics of scenarios

» Strategic planning

» Functions of scenario analysis in strategic planning and

decision making

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios,

modeling &

assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology

& characteristics

Strategic planning

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios,

modeling &

assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology

& characteristics

Strategic planning

Phase 3 & 4 of FSA

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios,

modeling &

assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology

& characteristics

Strategic planning

Phase 3: Projection (step 3.1 & 3.2)

» Future level definition (step 3.1), e.g.:

» 1: Minimum extreme

» 2: Trend extrapolation

» 3: Maximum extreme

» Consistency assessment (step 3.2)

» 2: conditional

» 1: supportive

» 0: independent

» -1: obstructive

» -2: inconsistent

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios,

modeling &

assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology

& characteristics

Strategic planning

Phase 3: Projection (step 3.3)

» Scenario construction (step 3.3)

» Scenario as combination of different future levels of all

impact factors used to describe and analyze a system

» Calculation scenario indices of all possible scenarios (used

for the selection)

» Additive and/or multiplicative consistency

» Number of inconsistencies

» Local efficiency (neighborhood characteristics)

» Pre-filter during scenario construction:

» Number of tolerated inconsistency

» Threshold value for additive and/or multiplicative consistency

Significant reduction of original number of scenarios

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios,

modeling &

assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology

& characteristics

Strategic planning

Phase 4: Selection & interpretation (step 4.1)

» Goal

» Selection of a small (4-8) set of consistent,

diverse and representative scenarios

(cf. Tietje, 2005; Spoerri et al., 2009)

» Two fundamentally different procedures

» Data driven (bottom up, inductive) selection

» Based on algorithms relying on calculated

scenario indices

» Local efficiency selection

» “Tietje” selection

» “Distance-to-selected” selection

» Concept driven (top down, deductive) selection

» Applied if the study team has conceptual ideas

about the future of the investigated system (

representative scenarios)

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios,

modeling &

assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology

& characteristics

Strategic planning

Phase 4: Selection & interpretation (step 4.2)

Illustrative results

» Description & Interpretation (step 4.2)

» Synthesis of the final scenarios to a comprehensive and

accessible “picture” based on all insights gained in the

analysis

» Scenario A-2 “Recycling as a self-runner”

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios,

modeling &

assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology

& characteristics

Strategic planning

Phase 4: Selection & interpretation (step 4.2)

Illustrative results

» Description & Interpretation (step 4.2)

» Synthesis of the final scenarios to a comprehensive and

accessible “picture” based on all insights gained in the

analysis

» Scenario A-2: “Monopoly of gravel suppliers – breakdown

of recycling”

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios,

modeling &

assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology

& characteristics

Strategic planning

Summary FSA

Reality Concept Model Scenarios Pictures

1 Goal formation 2 System

analysis

3 Projection 4 Selection &

interpretation

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios,

modeling &

assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology

& characteristics

Strategic planning

Scenarios, modeling & assessment

methods

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

FSA, modeling & assessment methods

» Goal

» Assessment of environmental/sustainability performance of

developed future states of a system (prospective

assessment)

» Relevance

» Decisions of today determine impacts over long time periods

(e.g., urban infrastructures)

» Example from thermal waste management:

» Investment in thermal treatment facility determine

environmental performance for several decades (±30 years)

» Environmental performance of specific technology depends

on various future developments, such as:

» Future waste compositions

» Energy price developments

» Changes in legal standards

» Efficiency of landfill mining (technology learning curve)

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

FSA & MFA (e.g., emission models)

Case Study Waste Scenarios for the European Union in

2050

» Goal: Prospective analysis of future emissions from

municipal solid waste incineration in the European Union

» Scenario analysis

» Development of scenarios to determine waste amounts of

the European Union in 2050

» Based on the analysis of impacts of EU Directives on future

waste amounts

Amounts of household, commercial & medical waste,

sewage sludge going into: (i) Recycling, (ii) Incineration, (iii)

Landfill

» Linking scenarios to emission model

» From waste amounts to material composition

as inputs to WM model

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

FSA & Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)

» General procedure (principle):

» Translate scenarios into future state specific Life Cycle

Inventory (LCI)

» Depending on constructed scenarios more or less

concretization steps are required to link scenarios to LCI

Scenario analysis LCA

Life Cycle Inventory

Life Cycle Impact Assessment

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

FSA & Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)

Examples:

» Waste scenarios for the European Union in 2050

» Elementary compositions could also be used for the

environmental impact assessment of different thermal

treatment or waste management options, e.g.:

» Grate-incineration with additional metal recovery from residues

» Waste gasification

» Waste gasification combined with ash melting

» Pre-treatment, sensor-based separation techniques

» Prospective LCA of transport systems in 2020

» Spielmann, M., Scholz, R.W., Tietje, O. & de Haan, P.

(2005). Scenario modeling in prospective LCA of transport

systems. Application of Formative Scenario Analysis.

International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10(5), 325-

335.

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Prospective LCA of transport systems 1

Framing of the study

» Goals

» Methodological

» Conceptualization of uncertainties in prospective environmental

assessment by the application of Formative Scenario Analysis

» Case study

» Prospective assessment of environmental performance of

regional passenger transport alternatives in 2020 taking into

account different cornerstone scenarios

» Transport alternatives

» Rail transport

» low cost

» comfort

» ultra-light

» Bus

» Private car

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Prospective LCA of transport systems 2

Basic Procedure

LCI of transport

systems

- Train

- Bus

- Car

Technological

factors

Time dependent

Environmentally

relevant

Socio-economic

factors

Embedding

FSALCA

Scenarios

Projection & Selection

∆ L

CI b

ase

d o

n fu

ture

le

ve

ls

of te

ch

no

logy v

aria

ble

s

LCIA

Scenario specific, prospective environmental impacts

of different regional transport systems in 2020

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Prospective LCA of transport systems

Unit process scenarios

Technology factors Socio-economic factors

Impact assessment

& analysis

Future level def. &

consistency

assessment

Linking technology

factors to LCI

Factor identification

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Prospective LCA of transport systems

Impact factors for unit process “Operation Bus”

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Prospective LCA of transport systems

Impact factors for unit process “Operation Bus”

Manufacturing

low cost train

Energy mix 100% Natural gas no change 60% NG & 40% LFO

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Prospective LCA of transport systems

Results – Greenhouse gas emissionsWrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Prospective LCA of transport systems

Results – NOx emissionsWrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

FSA & Multi-Attribute Utility Theory

(MAUT)

» Goal

» Assessment of utility (attractiveness) of impacts/outcomes of

a set of alternatives (e.g., scenarios)

» Identification of ‘best’ alternative based on a set of

performance attributes (i.e., criteria)

» Procedure

a) Determine assessment perspective

b) Define utility criteria and respective indicators

c) Perform criteria-specific judgments for each alternative

d) Define utility function to translate judgment into criteria-

specific utility

e) Aggregate criteria-specific utilities and standardize overall

utility

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

MAUT: Illustration of general procedure

a) Assessment persp.

e) Overall utility

b) Criteria set

c) Judgments

d) Utility functions

Figuera, J., Greco, S., Ehrgott, M. (2005). Multiple criteria decision analysis. State of the art.

New York: Springer.

Aggregation methods

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

FSA & Multi-Attribute Utility Theory

(MAUT)

» MAUT I vs. MAUT II

» MAUT I

» Evidence- and data-based, “objective” utility assessment

» ‘Classical scientific’ assessment

» MAUT II

» Stakeholder- and preference-based, subjective utility assessment

» Intuitive assessment

» Assessment foci

» Different and case-specific sets of criteria applicable

depending on the assessment perspective, e.g.,

» Environmental performance

» Eco-efficiency (e.g., environmental performance related to costs)

» Sustainability performance

» Desirability

» Probability

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Exploration parcours (MAUT II)

» Structured procedure to reveal and record the interests

and evaluations of stakeholders

Loukopoulos, P. & Scholz, R.W. (2004). Sustainable future urban mobility: using ‘area

development negotiation’ for scenario assessment and participatory strategic planning.

Environment and Planning A, 36, 2203-2226.

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Typology & Characteristics of Scenarios

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

t0 time

Future analysis

» Various methods/approaches available to analyze future

system developments

» From quantitative system modeling to qualitative exploration

of system developments and future states

» Appropriate methods depends on various characteristics of

the investigated system

a) Degree of complexity and uncertainty

b) Considered time horizon

c) Scope of the future analysis (focus)

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Degree of complexity & uncertainty

» Facets of complexity

» Multi-dimensional (highly interdisciplinary)

» Multi-scale (processes interact at various scales)

» Nature/character of interactions

Wicked, ill-defined problem (vs. well-defined vs. task)

Van Asselt, M.B.A. (2000). Perspectives on uncertainty and risk: The PRIMA approach to

decision support. Dordrecht: Kluver.

Scholz, R.W. & Tietje, O. (2002). Embedded case study methods. Integrating quantitative

and qualitative methods. Thousand Oaks: Sage.

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Degree of complexity & uncertainty

Graphical illustration

3 2

1

Direct impact

(linear &

non-linear,

fuzzy)

Indirect impact

(1-3 via 2)

5 6

System

A

Context

A

Feedback

loop(1-1 via 2 & 3)

System B

Context B

Policy

BehaviorNature

1’

2’3’

International lawWorld economy

Sys

tem

bo

un

da

ry

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

A typology of scenarios

Scenarios

Predictive Explorative Normative

Transformin

g

PreservingStrategicExternalWhat-ifForecasts

» Combination of scenario types often

done, e.g. IPCC emission scenarios:

» Predictive scenarios for well-understood

systems (e.g., energy consumption and

GHG emissions, embedded in socio-

economic/political contexts (explorative)

Höjer, M., Ahlroth, S., Dreborg, K-H., Ekvall, T., Finnveden, G. et al. (2008). Scenarios in

selected tools for environmental system analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 16, 1958-

1970.

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Scopes of scenario types

» Predictive: “What will happen?”

» Forecasts: “What will happen provided that the most likely

development unfolds?”

» What-if: “What will happen on the condition of some

specified events?”

» Explorative: “What can happen?”

» External: “What can happen to the development of external

factors?”

» Strategic: “What can happen if we act in a certain way?”

» Normative: “How can a specific target be reached?”

» Preserving: “How can the target be met by adjustments to

current situation?”

» Transforming: “How can a target be met, when prevailing

structure blocks necessary changes?”

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Analyzing the future of a system

From prediction to exploration of the future

» From parameter variations to explorations of new

systems…

Time horizon

De

gre

e o

f c

om

ple

xit

y

short-term long-term

hig

hlo

w

Swart, R.J., Raskin, P. & Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability

science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14, 137-146.

‘Real’ scenario techniques

Quantitative

modeling/

simulationPredictive

Normative

Explorative

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Further categorization of scenarios

Prediction

Exploration

Normative

Quantitative

Qualitative

Pro

bab

ilit

y

Po

ssib

ilit

y

FSA

Cross-impact

analysis

Quantitative system

modeling

Storytelling

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Categorization of FSA

» Methodology for construction of explorative scenarios

» Both external and strategic scenarios

» Methodology for construction of normative scenarios

» Backward planning approach in FSA

» Start from defined goals (scenarios)

» Perform system analysis

» Perform projection with consistency assessment

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Scenarios in strategic planning

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Strategic planning

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Functions of scenarios (result-related)

Results (scenarios/future states)… Basis for assessment of scenarios (MAUT I & II)

Input for modeling (e.g., SFA) and prospective assessment (e.g., LCA)

Initial step for strategy development

Counseling decision-makers

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

Functions of scenarios (procedural)

» Procedural functions are linked to collaboration between

science and practice (i.e., transdisciplinarity)

Mutual learning between science and practice

Capacity building for system transformations

Wrap-up Lecture 2

Scenarios, modeling

& assessment

methods

MFA

LCA

MAUT

Scenario typology &

characteristics

Strategic planning

CU next week