Introduction to Introduction to Research Concepts Research Concepts

using theusing theCard Probability Card Probability

StudyStudyChapter 1 Thomas and Nelson

How does the card probability How does the card probability study, conducted in the previous study, conducted in the previous class, fit into the class, fit into the basicbasic to to appliedapplied research continuum? research continuum?

Basic because it was controlled. Applied because is addressed an immediate problem this study of probability fits into both, so in the middle

Lacking in ecological validity because it was not similar to a real-life situation.Ie. We didn’t just do the experiment and let it happen naturally, it was more of a laboratory experiment.

Internal validity with us is stronger because we did it in the “lab” study, we know this makes our results more accurate,

This decreases our external validity because our findings were with the same group of people, which could not allow us to generalize to our population

In what ways was the study In what ways was the study lacking in lacking in ecological validityecological validity? ? How does this relate to the How does this relate to the internalinternal and and externalexternal validityvalidity of the study?of the study?

Which variable, to stay or switch would better produce a win.

What would have been the What would have been the problem statementproblem statement for the for the card probability study?card probability study?

1) Staying with the original card each time would be more successful in the outcome

2) Switching from the original card each time would be more successful in the outcome

3) Regardless of the switch or stay the outcome will be the same.

List three potential List three potential hypotheseshypotheses that could that could have been put forth prior to the study. have been put forth prior to the study.

1) Tenacity: belief without evidence, staying no matter what even if they are not winning.

2) Intuition: staying because they think its “their card”, or the last card dealer touches will always be the card( like a superstition)

3) Authority: based on authority, stay because they said to stay.

4) Empirical: staying based on winning the first two from staying, so basing it on previous wins, its based on data.

5) Rationalistic: basing on perception.

Provide four Provide four unscientific unscientific methodsmethods of problem solving and of problem solving and give an example of how each give an example of how each could be applied to solving our could be applied to solving our problem statement.problem statement.

Independent: (2 levels; stay or switch) choice of play Dependent: outcome or winning percentage.

What were the What were the independentindependent and and dependent variablesdependent variables in the in the study? How many levels of each study? How many levels of each independent variable were there?independent variable were there?

Was the study Was the study experimentalexperimental in nature? Explainin nature? Explain