Introduction to Introduction to ProbabilityProbability

Probability QuizProbability Quiz

Assign a probability to each event.Assign a probability to each event.

1.1. You will miss a day of school this You will miss a day of school this year.year.

2.2. You will get an A in math.You will get an A in math.

3.3. A tossed coin will land “tails.”A tossed coin will land “tails.”

4.4. You will gain 10 pounds this year.You will gain 10 pounds this year.

5.5. You will live to be 100 years old.You will live to be 100 years old.

6.6. The sun will rise tomorrow. The sun will rise tomorrow.

Probability QuizProbability Quiz

7.7. The next President of the United States The next President of the United States will be over 21 years old.will be over 21 years old.

8.8. A card drawn from a standard deck will A card drawn from a standard deck will be a club.be a club.

9.9. You will take a space trip to the moon.You will take a space trip to the moon.

10.10. The next baby born in this state will be The next baby born in this state will be a girl.a girl.

11.11. You will listen to your iPod today.You will listen to your iPod today.

12.12. You have type “D” blood.You have type “D” blood.

Definition of ProbabilityDefinition of Probability

The probability of an event is a The probability of an event is a number between 0 (0%) and 1 (100%) number between 0 (0%) and 1 (100%) inclusive that indicates the likelihood inclusive that indicates the likelihood of the event occurring.of the event occurring.

0% 50% 0% 50% 100%100%

impossible impossible certaincertain

Probability Game with Sum Probability Game with Sum of Diceof Dice

Goal: To win the most rolls.Goal: To win the most rolls.

Directions: Working with a partner, Directions: Working with a partner, One player chooses odds while One player chooses odds while

another player chooses evens. another player chooses evens. Roll the dice. Sum the faces. Roll the dice. Sum the faces. Record the sum on either the odd or Record the sum on either the odd or

even scorecard.even scorecard. Repeat 99 more times.Repeat 99 more times.

Definition of ProbabilityDefinition of Probability

The probability of event A occurring is The probability of event A occurring is given by given by

number of ways A can occurnumber of ways A can occur

P(A) = total number of outcomesP(A) = total number of outcomes

Probability with CardsProbability with Cards

P(E)P(E)P(~E)P(~E)P(S)P(S)P(vowel)P(vowel)P(second half of P(second half of

alphabet)alphabet)P(second half or vowel)P(second half or vowel)P(second half and P(second half and

vowel)vowel)P(before I and vowel)P(before I and vowel)P(before I or vowel)P(before I or vowel)

Probability Game with Sum Probability Game with Sum of Diceof Dice

Is this game fair?Is this game fair? How many different ways are there How many different ways are there

to roll the dice?to roll the dice? How many different ways are there How many different ways are there

to roll an even number?to roll an even number? How many different ways are there How many different ways are there

to roll an odd number?to roll an odd number?

Calculation Probabilities Calculation Probabilities of Sumsof Sums

++ 11 22 33 44 55 66

11

22

33

44

55

66

Calculating ProbabilityCalculating Probability

P(2)=P(2)= P(3)=P(3)= P(4)=P(4)= P(5)=P(5)= P(6)=P(6)= P(7)=P(7)=

P(8)=P(8)= P(9)=P(9)= P(10)=P(10)= P(11)=P(11)= P(12)=P(12)=

Is this game fair?Is this game fair?

Circle the different ways to roll even Circle the different ways to roll even numbers in the chart.numbers in the chart.

Square the different ways to roll odd Square the different ways to roll odd numbers in the chart.numbers in the chart.

How can you determine if this game How can you determine if this game is fair?is fair?

Experimental ProbabilityExperimental Probability

Record the number of times you rolled Record the number of times you rolled each of the sums on the tally sheet.each of the sums on the tally sheet.

Using your tally sheet, calculate the Using your tally sheet, calculate the probabilities for rolling a sum of 2, 3, probabilities for rolling a sum of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 124, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12

Create a bar graph of the different Create a bar graph of the different sumssums

How can you determine if this game is How can you determine if this game is fair?fair?

Probability Game with Probability Game with Product of DiceProduct of Dice

Goal: To win the most rolls.Goal: To win the most rolls.

Directions: Working with a partner, Directions: Working with a partner, One player chooses odds while another One player chooses odds while another

player chooses evens. player chooses evens. Roll the dice. Calculate the product of the Roll the dice. Calculate the product of the

faces. faces. Record the product on either the odd or Record the product on either the odd or

even scorecard, depending upon the even scorecard, depending upon the product.product.

Repeat 99 more times.Repeat 99 more times.

Is this game fair or Is this game fair or unfair?unfair?

If you were even and won, then raise If you were even and won, then raise your hand.your hand.

Is this game fair?Is this game fair? Prove that this game is either fair or Prove that this game is either fair or

unfair.unfair.

Create your own gameCreate your own game

Working with your partner, create Working with your partner, create your own game.your own game.

Explain the strategy you would want Explain the strategy you would want to use to win your game using to use to win your game using probability. probability.