Introduction of the MAHASRI as the Post-GAME Monsoon ...
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Introduction of the MAHASRI as the Post-GAME Monsoon Research Program in Asia
Jun MatsumotoDepartment of Earth & Planetary Science, University of Tokyo
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)/ Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC)
Chairman of the Post-GAME Planning Working Group
Flood in Assam, India, August, 2004
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Status of the postStatus of the post--GAME planningGAME planning
• Aug. 28, 2005: 1-st International Planning Workshop at Kyoto, Japan
• Sept. 26, 2005: First proposal in the GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel (GHP) meeting, at Melbourne, Australia
• Nov. 1, 2005: 2-nd International Planning Workshop at Tokyo, Japan
Still in the build-up stage, until September 2006
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Project title (candidates proposed in the Project title (candidates proposed in the final GAME Conference etc.)final GAME Conference etc.)
• COPAM: Coordinated Observation & Prediction of Asian Monsoon (Proposed in the Final GAME Science Conference in December 2004)
• COMAP: Coordinated Monsoon Asian Program • GMAP: GEOSS Monsoon Asian Program • ICECREAM: International Cooperative Experiments for
Climatic Research on Asian Monsoon• PHACE-AM: Project on Hydro-Atmospheric
Collaborative Experiment in Asian Monsoon• COPE-AM: Coordinated Observation and Prediction
Experiment in (for) Asian Monsoon• AM-CoRE: Asian Monsoon Coordinated Research and
Experiment
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Project title (tentative)Project title (tentative)MAHASRI
Monsoon Asia Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative
orMonsoon Asia Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative
orMonsoon Asia Hydrospheric-Atmospheric System Research and Prediction Initiative
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Bodhisattva Stupa-mahasri卒都波大吉祥菩萨 also known as the Vajra of Joyous Benefit. Stupa refers to the 5 Elements that constitutes all sentient beings. This deity manifests the joy of liberation in the midst of the endless cycles of birth & death that sentient beings experience.
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ObjectiveObjective
"To establish hydro-meteorological prediction system, particularly up to seasonal time-scale, through better scientific understanding of Asian monsoon variability".
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Key Science Issues (1)Key Science Issues (1)• Atmosphere-ocean-land interactions in the
Asian monsoon system• Scale-interactions among diurnal, synoptic,
intraseasonal and seasonal variability of Asian monsoon
• Interactions of surface and boundary layer processes with convective cloud system
• Comparisons of hydro-meteorological characteristics among regional monsoon sub-systems
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Key Science Issues (2)Key Science Issues (2)• Effect of human influences (i.e., aerosols, land-
use change, and greenhouse-gas increase) on hydro-meteorological variations in Asian monsoon regions
• Down-scaling and up-scaling for/with regional hydro-meteorological modeling and forecast
• Transferability of land-surface hydrological models and parameters for prediction of ungauged basins
• Incorporation of new technologies for observation and computation
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Linear trend of summer precipitationLinear trend of summer precipitation((JJAJJA)):1961:1961--20002000
(Endo et al., 2005)
increasing
decreasing
Analysis based ondaily rainfall data ofmore than 700 stationsfor 1950s-2000
Changes in the Pacific Ocean?Changes in the Tibetan Plateau?Global warming?Aerosol increase?Deforestation over Indochinaetc….??
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What will we achieve?What will we achieve?• Determine predictability and key phenomena of
Asian monsoon variability up-to seasonal time-scale for the use of hydro-meteorological prediction system
• Develop real-time monitoring and/or modeling system for hydro-meteorological prediction and water management in specific river basins in Asian monsoon regions
• Develop integrated hydrometeorologicaldatabase of Asian monsoon regions with data rescue
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International cooperation strategiesInternational cooperation strategies• Facilitate and/or improve hydro-meteorological
observations in Asian monsoon countries in conjunction with GEOSS
• Cooperate with CEOP-II by observations, data and hydrometeorelogical studies in Asian monsoon
• Contribute IPY by conducting intensive observations in Asian monsoon region
• Capacity building for observation, analysis, data-integration and modeling
• Data exchange to establish an integrated database
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Differences from GAMEDifferences from GAME??• More concrete collaboration with Asian
hydrometeorological agencies and research institutes → Present proto-type model for the
hydrometeorological prediction system• Expansion the target field not only air-land interaction
but also air-land-sea interaction, thus closer collaboration with CLIVAR community
• Expansion of the target area over the Maritime Continent, Western Pacific, and India, (Pakistan?), while retreat from Siberia → “MAHASRI” is beyond “GAME”!
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Data Management
Water and Energy Budget Studies
Water Resource Applications Project
Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group
Worldwide Integrated Study of Extremes
Transferability
CEOP IAEA
Northeast Asia
Tropics
Tibet/HimalayaEast Asia
MAHASRI
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Differences from GAMEDifferences from GAME??• More concrete collaboration with Asian
hydrometeorological agencies and research institutes → Present proto-type model for the
hydrometeorological prediction system• Expansion the target field not only air-land interaction
but also air-land-sea interaction, thus closer collaboration with CLIVAR community
• Expansion of the target area over the Maritime Continent, Western Pacific, and India, while retreat from Siberia
• Targeting also winter monsoon• Main time-scale: weekly to seasonal for prediction,
year-to-year variability for research including long-term data rescue
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Structure of (MAHASRI)
Core Centers:• Program promotion office (PPO) for
coordination of Observations and Modeling activities
• Coordinated Modeling Center (CMC)• Data Archive & Management Center (DAMC)• Regional Centers (RC)Affiliated (coordinated) Projects:• National projects• International or mutli-national projects
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Structure of (MAHASRI)
PPC
DAMC CMC
Core Structure
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project X
Project E
2005. 11. 1 version
Each Project may beNational, multi-national orInternational.
APHWAOGS
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Structure of (MAHASRI)
PPC
DAMC CMC
Core Structure
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project X
Project E
2005. 11. 1 version
Each Project may beNational, multi-national orInternational.
APHWAOGS
RC-1
RC-3
RC-2
RC-4
Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP)
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Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP) Theme 2-1: Observation Network in Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
Indian-Ocean Mooring Array
K. Mizuno (IORGC)
Maritime-Continent Radar Network
M. D. Yamanaka (IORGC)
Buoy Observation
Y. Kuroda(IORGC/MARITEC)
K. Ando (IORGC)Y.Yamaguchi,Y.Ishihara
K.Matsumoto (MARITEC)
Data Analysis
Y. Masumoto(IORGC/UTokyo)
H.Hase, I.Ueki (IORGC)
Radar Observation
H. Hashiguchi(KyotoU)
Y.Shibagaki (OsakaECU) T.Shimomai (ShimaneU)M.K.Yamamoto(KyotoU)
M.Kawashima, Y.Fujiyoshi(Hokkaido U)
R. Shirooka, M.Katsumata (IORGC)
Data Analysis
M. D. Yamanaka(IORGC/KobeU)
S. Mori, P.M. Wu, Hamada J.I., S. Ogino, K.Ichiyanagi, T.Sasaki
(IORGC)Y.Tachibana (IORGC/TokaiU)
80°70°
80°70°
10°
0°
-10°
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Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP) Theme 2-2: Observation research and technology development on water
cycle and climatic changes in Asian monsoon regionDevelopment of rainfall observation system in Southeast Asia Jun Matsumoto (University of Tokyo ・ JAMSTEC/ IORGC)
(1)Rainfall distribution
Rainfall observation system study(Matsumoto: UT)
Rainfall system and water cycle study (Kuraji: UT)
Rainfall database(Agata:UT)
Rainfall estimation by micro wave remote sensing(Sato: NICT)
Rainfall estimation using radar(Hayashi:KU.,Terao:OGU )
Application of rainfall data to the flood prediction system (Kanae:RIHN)
(2)Flood prediction
Real-time rainfall map and its application to flood prediction
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Time Schedule Time Schedule Research phases:• September, 2005-September, 2006: Planning
and preparation phase• September, 2006-March, 2011(?): Research
phase (2006-07: Build-up new observation systems)
• 2008: IOP-year in conjunction with IPY (?)• 2009-2010: Major analysis phase• March, 2011-March, 2012: Concluding phase
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ShortShort--term scheduleterm schedule• Nov. 1, 2005: 2-nd International Planning Workshop • Nov. 2-4, 2005: Water Cycle Symposium in Asia • Nov. 4-6, 2005: Workshop on Hydro-informatics and
atmospheric sciences, Thailand• Mid-November: Proposal of Science Plan Draft to GEWEX-SSG
members• Jan. 2006: Proposal in the GEWEX-SSG• Mar. 2006: Proposal in the WCRP-JSC• April 2006: Scientific workshop on winter monsoon in conjunction
with the WMONEX meeting, at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia• Late April, 2006: Scientific workshop on summer monsoon at
Hue, Vietnam• Oct. 16-18, 2006: APHW Meeting
1-st ISP meeting will be held along with scientific meeting in thespecial session