INTRODUCTION In the past few decades it has become evident that not only Macedonia, but all...
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INTRODUCTION In the past few decades it has become evident that not only Macedonia, but all countries in South-east Europe are affected by droughts which are becoming more and more long lasting and severe. In 2006 the Secretariat of the UNCCD Convention in cooperation with World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) organized a workshop for representatives of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services where they agreed on Drought Management Centre for South East Europe (DMCSEE) as a response to the need to establish centre to alleviate problems caused by drought. Environmental Agency of Slovenia was selected to organize sustainable work of DMCSEE once its functions will be established through an execution of a two year project that is co-financed by European Union through South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme. MISSION The mission of DMCSEE is : to coordinate and facilitate the development, assessment, and application of drought risk management tools and policies in South-Eastern Europe with the goal of improving drought preparedness and reducing drought impacts OBJECTIVES Project is to achieve the main aim through several specific objectives : to prepare regional drought monitoring, analysis, early warning products, to assess regional vulnerability to drought impacts, to promote and strengthen the capacity for drought preparedness, monitoring and management (training events, national seminars), to set-up Drought Management Centre for South East Europe, exchange of knowledge, experience and best practice on drought issues (SEE network), to enhance the implementation of the EU policies in the context of drought preparedness, monitoring and management, in particular in working out national drought strategies. PARTNERS (9 countries) 1. Environmental Agency of Republic of Slovenia - EARS 2. Slovenian Institute of Hop Research and Brewing - IHPS 3. VITUKI Environmental Protection and Water Management Research Institute - VITUKI 4. Hungarian Meteorological Service - OMSZ 5. Directorate for environmental protection and water management of Lower Tisza District – ATIKOVIZIG 6. Pushkarov Institute of Soil Science - ISSNP 7. National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology - NIMH 8. GEORAMA - Regional Development 9. Agricultural University of Athens - AUA 10. Meteorological and Hydrological Service - DHMZ 11. University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Water Management - UNSFA 12. Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia - RHMSS 13. Hydrometeorological Institute of Montenegro - HI-M 14. Ministry for agriculture, forestry and water economy - Hydrometerological Service - HMS 15. Institute for Energy, Water and Environment – INEUM WORKING PACKAGES WP1: Transnational Project Management and Coordination WP2: Communication and Dissemination WP3: Climatological monitoring and mapping system WP4: Drought risk assessment WP5: Capacity building trainings WP6: The start-up of the DMCSEE RESULTS Homogenization of data sets • Data control and homogenization with MASH homogenization method for 60 meteorological station Calculation of Drought Indexes • SPI calculation based on long term precipitation series (min 30 years) • Base period 1971-2000 • Based on the SPI calculator on DMCSEE • SPI 1, SPI 3, SPI 6, SPI 12, SPI 24 Drought in 2003 • The most severe drought in last years all over Europe • Extremely little precipitation, summer temperature above normal with 4-5 °C • Yield losses, forest fires, problems in rivers, reduced run in some power plants Mapping of SPI1, SPI3 and SPI 6 for August 2003 Drought in 2007 According to historical archive year 2007 was with unfavorable hydrological conditions, severe and extreme drought especially in the western part of the country. • In Pelagonia region due to drought under threat were 8500 ha of wheat, 4000 ha of barley and 1400 ha of ray. Losses of wheat amounted 32%. • Valandovo plantations (Vardar region) were endangered by drought, cherries production in East region and paprika production in South east region reduced to half. • Both Prespa and Ohrid Lakes decreased in water level and Debar Spilje Hydropower plant reduced production of energy 14%. • Dry conditions caused many forest fires destroying 3200 ha forest every year. • Palfai Drought Index (PaDI) for 2007 WIN ISAREG model Silvana Stevkova Suzana Alcinova Monevska Hydrometeorological Institute, 1000 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia CONCLUSIONS Republic of Macedonia has suffered in the past severe drought periods with impacts large enough to cause a visible drop in GDP in dry years. For example, in 1993 drought damages reached 8% of national income. DMCSEE project is targeted to fulfill most important requirements of the regional drought centre and – mainly through preparation of drought monitoring products – improves detecting droughts and assessing their intensity. Additional checks and homogenization of precipitation data records enabled partners from Macedonia and other countries to accurately calculate drought indices, such as SPI – most frequently used index worldwide. Geostatistical mapping procedures will enable partners to routinely exchange maps such as presented example from 2003. Studying of impacts is important part of the project; drought can be detected and cognized as more or less intense event mainly (if not exclusively) through impacts it causes society and economy. Impacts were analyzed both through historical records and application of sophisticated crop-yield models. For further information Please contact [email protected] [email protected] DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT IN REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA THROUGH ESTABLISHMENT OF DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRE FOR SOUTH EAST EUROPE (DMCSEE) SPI Category > 2.0 Extremely wet 1.5- 2.0 Severely wet 1.0- 1.5 Moderately wet -1.0- 1.0 Near normal -1.0- - 1.5 Moderately dry -1.5- - 2.0 Severely dry < -2.0 Extremely dry • South East Europe Program • Co-funded by the European Union and the partner countries • 2009-2012, 2.2 M EUR • Lead partner: Environmental Agency of Slovenia •The partnership of the project is consisted of 9 ERDF Partners, 5 IPA Partners & one 10% partner • Web: www.dmcsee.org S TAN DA RD PR EC IP ITATIO N IN DE X (S PI6) forG EVG E LIJA forP ER IO D 1961-2010 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 1961 1963 1965 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010 spi6 S TAN D AR D P RE CIP ITATIO N INDE X (S P I12) forG EVG ELIJA forPER IO D 1961-2010 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 1961 1963 1964 1966 1968 1970 1971 1973 1975 1977 1978 1980 1982 1984 1985 1987 1989 1991 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 spi12 S TAN DA RD PR EC IP ITATIO N IN DE X (S PI24) forG EVG E LIJA forP ER IO D 1961-2010 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 1961 1963 1964 1966 1968 1970 1971 1973 1975 1977 1978 1980 1982 1984 1985 1987 1989 1991 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 spi24 • Development and implementation of irrigation scheduling system in Republic of Macedonia (WIN ISAREG model Probability curve of net irrigation requirements for maize at Butel for the period 2001-2010
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Transcript of INTRODUCTION In the past few decades it has become evident that not only Macedonia, but all...
INTRODUCTION
In the past few decades it has become evident that not only Macedonia, but all countries in South-east Europe are affected by droughts which are becoming more and more long lasting and severe.
In 2006 the Secretariat of the UNCCD Convention in cooperation with World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) organized a workshop for representatives of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services where they agreed on Drought Management Centre for South East Europe (DMCSEE) as a response to the need to establish centre to alleviate problems caused by drought.
Environmental Agency of Slovenia was selected to organize sustainable work of DMCSEE once its functions will be established through an execution of a two year project that is co-financed by European Union through South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme.
MISSION
The mission of DMCSEE is :to coordinate and facilitate the development,
assessment, and application of drought risk management tools and policies in South-Eastern Europe with the goal of improving drought preparedness and reducing drought impacts
OBJECTIVES
Project is to achieve the main aim through several specific objectives:
to prepare regional drought monitoring, analysis, early warning products,
to assess regional vulnerability to drought impacts, to promote and strengthen the capacity for drought preparedness, monitoring and management (training events, national seminars),
to set-up Drought Management Centre for South East Europe,
exchange of knowledge, experience and best practice on drought issues (SEE network),
to enhance the implementation of the EU policies in the context of drought preparedness, monitoring and management, in particular in working out national drought strategies.
PARTNERS (9 countries)
1. Environmental Agency of Republic of Slovenia - EARS 2. Slovenian Institute of Hop Research and Brewing - IHPS 3. VITUKI Environmental Protection and Water Management Research Institute - VITUKI 4. Hungarian Meteorological Service - OMSZ 5. Directorate for environmental protection and water management of Lower Tisza District – ATIKOVIZIG 6. Pushkarov Institute of Soil Science - ISSNP 7. National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology - NIMH 8. GEORAMA - Regional Development 9. Agricultural University of Athens - AUA 10. Meteorological and Hydrological Service - DHMZ 11. University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Water Management - UNSFA 12. Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia - RHMSS 13. Hydrometeorological Institute of Montenegro - HI-M 14. Ministry for agriculture, forestry and water economy - Hydrometerological Service - HMS 15. Institute for Energy, Water and Environment – INEUM
WORKING PACKAGESWP1: Transnational Project Management and CoordinationWP2: Communication and Dissemination WP3: Climatological monitoring and mapping system WP4: Drought risk assessment WP5: Capacity building trainings WP6: The start-up of the DMCSEE
RESULTS
Homogenization of data sets• Data control and homogenization with MASH homogenization method for 60 meteorological station
Calculation of Drought Indexes• SPI calculation based on long term precipitation series (min 30 years)• Base period 1971-2000• Based on the SPI calculator on DMCSEE• SPI 1, SPI 3, SPI 6, SPI 12, SPI 24
Drought in 2003• The most severe drought in last years all over Europe• Extremely little precipitation, summer temperature above normal with 4-5 °C• Yield losses, forest fires, problems in rivers, reduced run in some power plants
Mapping of SPI1, SPI3 and SPI 6 for August 2003
Drought in 2007According to historical archive year 2007 was with unfavorable hydrological conditions, severe and extreme drought especially in the western part of the country. • In Pelagonia region due to drought under threat were 8500 ha of wheat, 4000 ha of barley and 1400 ha of ray. Losses of wheat amounted 32%.• Valandovo plantations (Vardar region) were endangered by drought, cherries production in East region and paprika production in South east region reduced to half.• Both Prespa and Ohrid Lakes decreased in water level and Debar Spilje Hydropower plant reduced production of energy 14%. • Dry conditions caused many forest fires destroying 3200 ha forest every year.
•
Palfai Drought Index (PaDI) for 2007
WIN ISAREG model
Silvana StevkovaSuzana Alcinova Monevska
Hydrometeorological Institute, 1000 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia
CONCLUSIONS Republic of Macedonia has suffered in the past
severe drought periods with impacts large enough to cause a visible drop in GDP in dry years. For example, in 1993 drought damages reached 8% of national income.
DMCSEE project is targeted to fulfill most important requirements of the regional drought centre and – mainly through preparation of drought monitoring products – improves detecting droughts and assessing their intensity.
Additional checks and homogenization of precipitation data records enabled partners from Macedonia and other countries to accurately calculate drought indices, such as SPI – most frequently used index worldwide. Geostatistical mapping procedures will enable partners to routinely exchange maps such as presented example from 2003.
Studying of impacts is important part of the project; drought can be detected and cognized as more or less intense event mainly (if not exclusively) through impacts it causes society and economy. Impacts were analyzed both through historical records and application of sophisticated crop-yield models.
For further informationPlease contact [email protected]
DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT IN REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA THROUGH ESTABLISHMENT OF DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRE
FOR SOUTH EAST EUROPE (DMCSEE)
SPI Category
> 2.0 Extremely wet 1.5- 2.0 Severely wet 1.0- 1.5 Moderately wet-1.0- 1.0 Near normal-1.0- -1.5 Moderately dry-1.5- -2.0 Severely dry < -2.0 Extremely dry
• South East Europe Program• Co-funded by the European Union and the partner countries• 2009-2012, 2.2 M EUR• Lead partner: Environmental Agency of Slovenia•The partnership of the project is consisted of 9 ERDF Partners, 5 IPA Partners & one 10% partner • Web: www.dmcsee.org
STANDARD PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI6) for GEVGELIJA for PERIOD 1961-2010
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1961
1963
1965
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2010
spi6
STANDARD PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI12) for GEVGELIJA for PERIOD 1961-2010
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1961
1963
1964
1966
1968
1970
1971
1973
1975
1977
1978
1980
1982
1984
1985
1987
1989
1991
1992
1994
1996
1998
1999
2001
2003
2005
2006
2008
2010
spi12
STANDARD PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI24) for GEVGELIJA for PERIOD 1961-2010
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1961
1963
1964
1966
1968
1970
1971
1973
1975
1977
1978
1980
1982
1984
1985
1987
1989
1991
1992
1994
1996
1998
1999
2001
2003
2005
2006
2008
2010
spi24
• Development and implementation of irrigation scheduling system in Republic of Macedonia (WIN ISAREG model
Probability curve of net irrigation requirements for maize at Butel for the period 2001-2010
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