Introduction

Introduction

Background

Solutions:

Environmental and Engineering

Intermission

Solutions:

Social and Political

Conclusion

Background

Introduction

Background

Solutions:

Environmental

and

Engineering

Intermission

Solutions:

Social and

Political

Conclusion

Geography of New Orleans

Hurricane Katrina

Environmental Issues

Alternative Plans

100 Year Plan

New Orleans Geography

Lake Pontchartrain (north) Lake Borgne (east) Mississippi River (through the

city) Gulf of Mexico (south) Wetlands (southeast)

Environmental Concerns

Elevation– from 2 m above to 5 m below sea level

Mississippi River bed is rising Subsidence– 5-8 mm per year Reduction of Wetlands– 75 sq. km per year Sea Level Rise– 11 cm to 77 cm in 100

years Global Warming

Hurricane Katrina

Made landfall as a Category 3 in southeastern Louisiana

Sustained winds of 125 mph Projected storm surge of 28 ft On August 28th, Mayor Ray Nagin enacted

the first mandatory evacuation plan Superdome housed 26,000 people Storm surge caused several levee breaches

and flooded city Overall death toll: 1,800

Government Response

Response was slow and inefficient

FEMA mobilized 1000 Homeland Security workers

Firefighters and ambulance crews not allowed in immediately

Federal government lacked sufficient devastation information

Problems with looting

Superdome became a humanitarian crisis

Search and rescue efforts were uncoordinated

Increasing Hurricane Intensity

Hurricane Betsy - 1965 81 casualties $1.4 billion

Hurricane Camille - 1969 335 casualties $11 billion

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita - 2005 2,000 casualties $105 billion

Looking 100 Years Into The Future

The Possibilities

&

The Final Proposal

The Possibilities

Rebuild and Improve Abandon North Shore Plan The Final Proposal

Rebuild and Improve

Rebuild better than pre-Katrina High cost High risk Preserves unique New Orleans

culture Maintains economy

Abandon

Deemed too risky to live in Organized relocation of citizens Low cost Low risk

The North Shore

Preserve unique portions Historical Economic functions

Relocate residents to St. Tammany Parish

Make New Orleans a commuter city High risk on North Shore also Lack of available land

The Final Proposal

Downsize to historical sector Move major port functions

Port of South Louisiana Baton Rouge

New hurricane and flood protection system

Citizens’ Relocation Committee (CRC) Use river to develop wetlands

The Final Proposal

Incorporates the best from the other possibilities Preserves historical sector Provides for relocation of port economy CRC provides for safety of suburban

residents Smaller region to protect

Lower long-term costLower risk

Solutions: Environmental and Engineering

Introduction

Background

Solutions:

Environmental

and

Engineering

Intermission

Solutions:

Social and

Political

Conclusion

Sea Level Rise

Wetlands

Rivers

Flood Protection System

Global Warming

Increase in temperature Caused by emission of

greenhouse gases Affect on sea level rise:

Thermal Expansion Melting glaciers, ice caps Changes to hydraulic cycle

Sea Level Rise

Range: 10 cm to 100 cm (IPCC Third Assessment Report)

Median: 48 cm Models used: CCCma, GFDL,

Hadley-CM3, MPI

Uncertainty of Sea Level Rise

Do not capture multiple climate effects

Uncertainty in heat uptake by deep ocean

Timescales lead to inaction in policy

Kyoto Protocol

Subsidence

Types of: Endogenic – caused by human activities Exogenic – caused by natural processes

Causes: Groundwater withdrawal Petroleum extraction Tectonic motion

Cost of Sea Level Rise

$20 - 150 billion if sea levels rise 100 cm (Pugh, 2004)

$370 million dry land damages $893 million for wetlands damage $200 - 475 billion for coastal stabilization $57 - 174 million in transient costs 1500 damaged homes yearly

(McCarthy, 2001)

Louisiana’s Wetlands: Functions

Commercial importance Produces 1/4 of the nation's oil and

natural gas Produces 1/3 of the nation’s

fisheries’ landings Hosts 2nd largest wildlife habitat in the

U.S. Protective importance

Protection against storm surges Every 3-4 linear miles of healthy

wetlands reduces storm surge by 1 foot

Long Term

Reduce and compensate for current rate of loss of 75 square kilometers per year

Prepare for sea level rise Maintain barrier islands Improve knowledge of ecosystem

dynamics and restoration technology

Wetlands Problems and Solutions

Draining and Filling Zoning laws

Canals and Channels Use fewer canals Prevent further erosion from canals

Erosion Barrier Islands Use of dredged sediments Revegetation River diversions

Draining and Filling

Proposed Legislation: Prohibit draining and filling of

ecologically important wetlands 100 foot buffer between wetlands

and developed areas Best management techniques for

drilling and farming

Canals

Small Scale Canal Impact Canal dredging Human-altered hydrology and

substrate collapse Large Scale Canal Impact

Deep navigation canals Pipelines

8,000 miles of pipelines across coastal Louisiana

Barrier Islands

Katrina’s destruction of Chandeleur barrier islands (approximately 50% loss)

Present-day: slow rate of recovery Immediately: dredging

Sand deposits of previous delta lobes (i.e. Ship Shoal)

Dredged Sediments-Marsh

Sediment pumped into or placed on shallow water areas

Increases elevation of marshes or creates new marsh

Mixed success May become more important in

the context of increased sea level

Revegetation

Major plant death Salt water intrusion Lack of nutrients

Stabilization of soil Species must be well-adapted to

predicted conditions Spartina can tolerate moderate salinity

River Distributaries

Dredged sediments and revegetation are inefficient to continue long term

Sediment and nutrient delivery system Raise elevation Counteract subsidence Revive ecosystems to reduce erosion

Distributaries

Two distributaries Each divert up to 1/5 of normal

river discharge Floodgate at entry point to

control water level Open wider during floods Open less during low water

Armored banks

Distributaries

EAST: Breton Sound Fill in MRGO until Violet Canal Violet Canal and MRGO form

distributary WEST: Barataria Bay

Wilkinson Canal forms distributary Establish Barataria Waterway as main

canal for Lafayette oil and gas field

Cutoff

Southern cutoff 2 crevasses between cutoff and

Buras – maintain navigation, not flood control

No levees below Buras – navigation channel will not be maintained

Entry Point: Buras

Buras to replace Head of Passes as main entry point to deep draft channel

Two navigation canals will allow entry from east and west

Bird-foot delta abandoned; nothing south of Buras unless built on a deepwater platform

Problem: Riverbed Rise

Riverbed rise Sediment builds up on riverbed

because it cannot be distributed on floodplain

Increasing stress on Old River Control Structure Maintains 70% discharge through

current Mississippi River channel

Dredging

River currently being dredged to maintain navigation channel

Very costly but feasible because of economic importance of river

Wing Dams

Wing dams: dikes that extend from a river’s banks while allowing water to flow unhindered through the middle of the channel

Water behind dams will slow and drop sediment, building up sediment behind the dam

River channel will narrow and deepen

Wing Dams, cont.

Increased current velocity and pressure on bed will increase erosion, promote self-scouring process to bring bed level closer to sea level

River banks must be armored, so that increased erosion occurs on the bottom and not the sides

New river entry point at Buras shortens horizontal distance, allowing erosion to steepen profile

New River Specifications

Below Baton Rouge maintain 500 ft wide main channel, wide enough to accommodate riverboat traffic

Between Port of South Louisiana and Wilkinson Canal maintain 650 ft wide main channel, to accommodate the traffic at Port of New Orleans, especially boats turning around

Old River

Erosion of bed closer to sea level will decrease height difference between Atchafalaya and Mississippi beds at Old River, currently 12-14 ft

Material will be dredged from behind Old River to match changing elevation of Mississippi River bed

Increases capacity and use of existing structure for flood control

Flood Protection System Plans

Filling in the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet

Floodgates and double pumps on the 17th Street, Orleans Avenue, and London Avenue Canal Levees

Levee Reconstruction

Monitoring and Maintenance

Filling-In the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet

Storm surge coming up outlet was intensified, causing levees to be breached

Filling-in protects against funnel effect

Commercial/industrial impact

Floodgates and Double Pumps

Floodgates stop water from coming into the city through the canals

Gates close when storm surge threatens

Governance by NOAA Increase and redesign pump

system throughout city

Levee and Floodwall Reconstruction

Patchwork system Levees poorly monitored Subsidence I-walls protecting Lower Ninth Ward New Orleans East levees overtopped and

eroded I-walls were not able to handle pressure

from storm surges Scouring and seepage caused some I-

walls to fail Foundations were poor

Solutions

Rebuild to withstand Category 5 hurricane: Replace I-walls with T-walls Selective levee armoring Rolled clay levees Replace poor foundations with

compacted soil New levees from Intracoastal Waterway

to Jefferson West Levee System

Monitoring and Maintenance

Levee Governance Board Yearly levee inventory Differential Global Positioning

System to monitor subsidence Role of Army Corps

Timeline

Nov 2006

Sept 2007

2010

Temporary floodgates on canals.220 miles of levee repaired.

Floodwalls and levees raised to approved heights and engineering errors fixed.

Flood Protection System complete.

Intermission

Introduction

Background

Solutions:

Environmental and Engineering

Intermission

Solutions:

Social and Political

Conclusion

Absorbing the Information

The 100 Year Plan Environmental and

Engineering Issues Sea level rise and subsidence Wetlands Mississippi River Flood Protection System

Solutions: Social and Political

Introduction

Background

Solutions:

Environmental

and

Engineering

Intermission

Solutions:

Social and

Political

Conclusion

Downsizing/Zoning

Ports/Jobs/Relocation

Social/Cultural

Insurance/Building Codes

Evacuation

Costs

Committee for Continued

Monitoring

Downsizing By District

What Do We Do Now? Risk of subsidence, sea level rise,

increased storm surge Returned population- 190,000;

43% of the 2004 population of 440,000

Residents rebuilding Repair Hurricane Protection

Systems- $300 million spent by Army Corps of Engineers

Lakeview and Gentilly

Safe in the short term Repaired Hurricane Protection Systems:

$170 million spent by Army Corps of Engineers

Plans for another $120 million in future projects

Necessary for general protection of city

Will be zoned over 50 years

50 Year Zoning Plan

Time Zoning Law

Immediate No new house construction

5 years No household additions

10 years No immigration

Criteria for Clearing NeighborhoodsTime Occupancy

Immediate

<5%

30 years <10%

35 years <15%

40 years <20%

45 years <25%

50 years All evacuated from selected neighborhoods

New Orleans East, Venetian Isles, Village de L’Est

Severe damage and high subsidence rates Would not be safe if another, similar

hurricane hit Significant additional costs to make these

areas safe $67.5 million spent $232.5 million planned

Eminent domain, “full and just” compensation

Lower Ninth Ward

Considerable damage: 82% of homes had at least $5,200 in damages

Subsidence rate of 5 mm/year Average elevation 0.9 meters above

sea level Returned population of 5% Suitable for rebuilding Remaining districts in Orleans Parish

will be preserved

Plaquemines

57 % of homes sustained greater than $5200 in damage

13 mm per year subsidence rate Downriver from Pointe a la Hache

immediate evacuation Between Wilkinson Canal and

Pointe a la Hache—50 Year Zoning Plan

Other Uses for Land

Research Area Wetlands Alternate Energy Sources Wildlife Reserve

Port Functions

Port of South Louisiana will take over many of the roles of the Port of New Orleans

Shift shipping and trading business out while maintaining tourism

Provide monetary incentives for businesses to relocate to Port of South Louisiana

Jobs

We plan to move businesses to Baton Rouge

- Preparing Baton Rouge- Offering incentives for

businesses to relocate Most jobs still in New Orleans

will be related to tourism

Relocating People

People will relocate- Zoning and eminent domain

in some neighborhoods- Following the jobs to other

cities Offer support through the

Citizens’ Relocation Committee (CRC) and monetary aid

Plans for Preservation Programs

Goal: promote cultural awareness Festivals, museums, libraries, and

memorials Example: New Orleans Jazz and Heritage

Festival New Orleans History Month Preserve a city’s culture while moving on

to a safer, more efficient municipality in a new location

Social Considerations

Completion of clean-up Reopening of funeral homes Beautification of cemeteries Propagation of neighborhood

festivals Hurricane and Flood Memorial

Education

Vocational training Non-academic activities for grade

school students Normalize transportation and hours New curriculum:

Local cultural and political history Diversity acceptance Hurricane and flood preparedness Conservation and environmentally sound

living

Insurance Policy

Louisiana Department of Insurance clarify insurance ambiguities expansion of agent-homeowner

services Mandatory National Flood

Insurance Program avoid “natural disaster syndrome”

Building Codes and Green Architecture

First Floor Plan Minimizes flood damage $5000 contents coverage limit

Wind Damage Recommendations Protection of building openings Improved roof-sheathing attachment Improved roof-wall connections Secondary waterproofing to roof joints

Green Architecture

Government-Subsidized Housing

Single family homes and low-rise apartments

Follow building codes and green architecture guidelines

Integration of mixed income communities

Evacuation/Storm Refuge

Evacuation Routes Major evacuation routes:

I-10 to Baton Rouge/Houston I-55 I-59 to northern Mississippi

Contraflow changes inbound to outbound

Car Access and Remnant Population Problem

Superdome housed 26,000 people 9% of population has no car access Solution:

Public bus transportation to common evacuation destinations

Set up additional local shelters Staff and supply Superdome with

a maximum capacity

Baton Rouge Overpopulation Problem

Baton Rouge's population nearly doubled with incoming evacuees

Solution: Allow only up to 50-100,000 refugees into

city LSU as temporary shelter Develop Houston as evacuation

destination by designating Astrodome as a shelter and Astrodome/Reliant Center Complex as a health clinic

Current Plan: Phase System

Phase Location Time Before Landfall (hrs.)

Strength of Hurricane

1 South of Intracoastal Waterway

50 Category 1 or higher

2 Between Intracoastal Waterway and Mississippi River

40 Category 2 or higher

3 Between Mississippi River and I-12

30 Slow-moving Category 3 or higher

Additions

Phase 3 begins contraflow During Phase 1, begin pre-

supplying shelters in New Orleans with food, water, and first-aid kits

Contract private companies to do so and to stock excess emergency supplies such as flashlights and batteries throughout hurricane season.

Evacuation Cooperation

20-30% of New Orleans population failed to evacuate

Solution: Remind public of hurricane dangers;

increase evacuation cooperation Hurricane Awareness Week Continue to advertise/distribute info

pertaining to evacuation routes, home security, bus transport stops

Costs of Short-Term Plan

Wetland Restoration $815,558,000

Levee Repair & Construction

$15,125,000,000

Clean-Up and Recycling

$2,500,000

Acquisition of Land $6,480,400,000

City Planning and Insurance

$1,401,345

Mississippi River $248,855,000

TOTAL

$22,672,313,000 + $500,370 per

government subsidized and insured house

Costs of Long-Term Plan

Wetland Restoration $24,435,000,000

Levee Repair & Maintenance

$15,000,000,000

Phasing Out of People and Industry

$40,000,000,000

Mississippi River Monitoring and

Maintenance$3,500,000,000

TOTAL $82,935,000,000

Committee for Continued Monitoring

Experts and professionals from many different fields

Provides flexibility to our proposal

Keeping New Orleans safe in the future

Conclusion

Introduction

Background

Solutions:

Environmental and

Engineering

Intermission

Solutions:

Social and Political

Conclusion

Conclusion

A plan of integration A downsized, sustainable city A New Orleans for the future

Credits

We would like to thank Sam Bowring, Rafael Bras, Ari Epstein, Katrina Cornell, our Undergraduate Teaching Fellows, our Alumni Mentors, Debra Aczel, Maria Shkolnik, Ruth Weinrib, and the librarians.

We would also like to thank the panelists.

Mission 2010: New Orleans