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Introducing the Oil Climate Index - Projects at Harvard · 2018-12-10 · Introducing the Oil...
Transcript of Introducing the Oil Climate Index - Projects at Harvard · 2018-12-10 · Introducing the Oil...
Introducing the Oil Climate IndexAnalyzing the Heterogeneous Lifecycle
Climate Impacts of Global Oils
Deborah GordonDirector, Energy and Climate Program
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Kennedy School of GovernmentHarvard UniversityDecember 3, 2018
Global Petroleum Demand
Oil and gas supply most of the “stuff” in our everyday lives
through a 20th
century, tightly woven value chain that has
found a use for nearly every molecule
The 1.5oC global
temperature threshold is a
tall order for oil
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):“Global net human-
caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ around 2050”
Contending with the Petroleum Sector
Source: EIA, June 2018
After decades of decline and stagnation, U.S. oil & gas production is on the rise…
Oil & gas account for 75% of U.S. CO2 emissions
Est. 50 trillion barrels of oil
Oil & Gas Resources Are Not in Short Supply
Est. 40 quadrillion cubic feet natural gas
Massive stockpiles of conventional & unconventional hydrocarbons
remain in place worldwide that will likely last for centuries to come
Oil & Gas Resources are Very Heterogeneous
Different Oils, Different GHG Emissions
By assuming oil and gas are exhaustible resources and by treating the lifecycle climate
impacts of all petroleum resources alike, we miss a real opportunity to
reduce GHG emissions NOW
OCI 2.0 Demo Video
OCI 2.0 demo videos: http://oci.carnegieendowment.org/ - demovideos
OCI Phases of Development
Phase 1.0 (2015) – Form OCI partnership with researchers from Stanford and University of Calgary; model 30 global oils (5% global oil production); Find major variance in oils’ lifecycle GHGs and identify where in the supply chain emissions occur
Phase 2.0 (2016) – Model 75 global oils (30% total production); Confirm Phase 1.0 finding of a major variance in oil sector climate footprints
Phase 2.5 (2018) – Currently updating oil data; adding IEA World Energy Outlook 2017 country-level methane emission estimates
Phase 3.0 (2019) – In process to add ~40 global gases to the OCI and compare and contrast petroleum sector lifecycle GHGs
Climate Strategies using the OCIInformation, Transparency & Disclosure
Open source monitoring, reporting & verification
U.S. legislation: Know Your Oil Act (Rep. Huffman-CA) Global NGO: IEA World Energy Outlook (2019) Norwegian government: Reconcile industry with OCI
GLOBALOPPORTUNITIES
Climate Strategies using the OCIMarket Rules & Incentives
Engage investors and commodity
markets
Construct “smart” carbon taxes that price oil emissions according to lifecycle GHGs
Require financial disclosure of climate risks Guide institutional investing & divesting of oil and gas assets
GLOBALOPPORTUNITIES
Climate Strategies using the OCIRegulatory Action
Reform global standards
Canada: Suncor sequesters petcoke to reclaim ponds China & India: Bans on high-sulfur petcoke power generation US: Lift crude oil export ban – Congressional testimony California: NGO efforts to stop producing high GHG oils
GLOBALOPPORTUNITIES
Climate Strategies using the OCIInnovation & Technology Transfer
Industrial ecology leading to supply-side
innovations
Canada: Research Excellence grants for low CI oil processes California: major solar array in oil field applications UAE/Saudi: CO2 injection/sequestration demonstrations Global: Oil transition strategy tying together EVs & refining
GLOBALOPPORTUNITIES
OCI 2.0 Web Tool
OCI 2.0 web tool URL: http://oci.carnegieendowment.org/
Additional Slide
Petroleum alternatives depend on coordinated: • Technology• Economics• Infrastructure• Policy• Politics