Intro to reliability management
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Introduction toReliability Management
Fred SchenkelbergReliability Consultant
(408) 710-8248
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What have you done for me lately?
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What is your value??
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What is your scope?
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Or entire industry?
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Goals
Estimates
PredictionsTesting
Field
Returns
Goals and Feedback
Specifications
Responses
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Score!
Goal!
Back of the Net!
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How do you talk about reliability?
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As good as or better ….
Make it “reliable”
Do your best.
5 year life
None should ever fail.
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www.nomtbf.com
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How do those around you talk about reliability?
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Four elements
• Function– Primary– Side of box– performance
• Probability– % surviving– Chance of
surviving– No distribution
• Environment– Weather– Stresses– Use profiles
• Duration– Early Life– Warranty period– Useful Life
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Practice
• What is the function?
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Practice
• What is the environment?
Coffee mug
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Practice
• What is the probability and duration?
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Practice
• What is another probability and duration?
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Brew coffee daily in US home environment 99% reliability over 1 year warranty period and 95% reliability over useful life of 5 years.
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System goal of 90% Reliability in 2 years.
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Sys
Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3 Sub 4 Sub 5
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Coffee Machine
Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe
97%
Home Coffee Machine95% over 5 years
98% 99% 99% 98%
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Sys
Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3
Sub 3.1
Sub 3.2
Sub 4 Sub 5
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Coffee Machine
Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe
97%
Home Coffee Machine95% over 5 years
98% 99% 99% 98%
99% 99% 99% 99% 99%Goals – straight line method
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Feedback
• Did you do well?
• Are you on track?
• Corrections?
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Concept Design Development ManufacturingField Use
Will
it w
ork?
Will
it w
ork?
Will
it w
ork?
Will
it w
ork?
Did it
wor
k?
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Concept
Design
Developme
nt
Manufacturi
ng
Field UseW
ill it
wor
k?W
ill it
wor
k?W
ill it
wor
k?W
ill it
wor
k?Did
it w
ork?
Concept
Design
Developme
nt
Manufacturi
ng
Field Use
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FRACAS
Multiple systems
Overbearing Enforcement
Rewards for numbers
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Typical early life failuresProduct does not meet design specifications
Material or component characterization
Process characterization
Assembly characterization
Process control – focus on what’s important
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Prediction of ELFsNot commonly possibly for unknown variation
Design in some margin
Derating
Safety factor
Determine margin
If variation is know, determine probability of failures – still difficult to know when though.
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Hit by a big hammer
Some stress is too large to accommodate
Lightening
Vehicle accident
Meteor strike
Hurricane
Possibly foreseen or expected, and not economical to design the ability to withstand
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Prediction of overstress
Not commonly possibly
Design errors
Environment
Unexpected use
When significant adverse consequence may occur explore mitigation or fail safe approaches
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Wear out and related
Everything fails – eventually
Understand failure mechanisms and environment
It is a race to cause
the failure
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Call Centers
First contact with failure
What do you collect?that is actionable?
What is the main focus?
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VALUE
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Return on Investment
• Cost or Investment
What do you spend to accomplish the task?
• Return or Benefit
What you realize as a result?
Common to expect at least a 10 to 1 ROI
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Given a FET that costs 10 cents, a new procurement engineer finds a new FET vendor that only charges 5 cents.
Switch?
What else to consider?
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Given a FET that costs 10 cents, a new procurement engineer finds a new FET vendor that only charges 5 cents.
$0.05 FET has MTBF of 50,000 hours
$0.10 FET has MTBF of 75,000 hours
1000 hours of operationShipping 1000 unitsCost to repair unit $250
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Total Cost of $0.10 FET
#Failed = (1-0.987) 1000 units = 13.25
Cost of Repairs = 250*13 = $3250
Total Cost = $3250+0.10*1000 = $3350
987.01000 000,75
1000
10.0
eR
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FETCost
RepairCost
TotalCost
$0.10 $325075,000 hrs
$3350
$0.05 $500050,000 hrs
$5050
$0.50 $2500100,000hrs
$3000
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How else can we find value?
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Summary
• Set goals
• Break goals down
• Create feedback
• Create value
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Introduction toReliability Management
Fred SchenkelbergReliability Consultant
(408) 710-8248