Intro to PM

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Module 1 - Introduction 1 PROJECT MANAGEMENT Presented by: John Rakos, MSc, PMP President, John J. Rakos & Associates Consultants Ltd. John J. Rakos is available to teach or consult in any topic presented in this seminar.

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Transcript of Intro to PM

  • PROJECT MANAGEMENTPresented by:John Rakos, MSc, PMPPresident, John J. Rakos & Associates Consultants Ltd.John J. Rakos is available to teach or consult in any topic presented in this seminar.

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  • INTRODUCTIONReference sources

    A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (2003). The Project Management Institute. http://www.pmi.orgRakos, John J. et al, A Practical Guide to Project Management Documentation, Wiley, 2004Kerzner, Harold. Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling and Controlling. 6th ed. John Wiley & Sons, 1998.Rakos, John J. Software Project Management for Small to Medium Sized Projects. Prentice-Hall, 1990.

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  • INTRODUCTIONThe Value of Project Management

    Allows for excellent organization and trackingBetter control and use of resourcesReduces complexity of inter-related tasksAllows measurement of outcome versus plansEarly identification of problems and quick correction

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  • INTRODUCTIONPMBOKTM Knowledge Areas

    Based on the Project Management Institutes Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBOK1

    Nine knowledge areas:This webinar:Scope, Time, Cost, Risk, Integration -- Next webinar:Quality, Procurement, Communications, Human Resources, Integration

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  • INTRODUCTIONPMP Certification

    Internationally accepted accreditation

    Get certification3 (5 without degree) years experience35 hours training4 hour, 200 questions, multiple choice exam!

    Have to be re-certified every 3 years60 PDUsAttending a conferenceAttending coursePMI membershipPublicationsPM work

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  • INTRODUCTIONWhat is a Project?

    A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product or service- A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), Project Management Institute, 2003

    One timeLimited funds/timeSpecific resources utilizedPerformed by people - Single or multi-person teamPlanned, controlledSpecific Deliverables

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  • INTRODUCTIONThe Triple Constraint of ProjectsOn Time, Budget, Quality = Required Scope

    TimeCostQualityIntegrationTrade Offs

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  • Project Life CycleINTRODUCTION5%20%60%15%ConceptPlanningExecution/ControlClosingPercentages and graph refer to the amount of effort (people) In IT projects = 90-95% of cost!Definition | Analysis |Design|Build|Test|Accept| Implement| Operation

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  • Project PlanningWrite a Plan Containing1.Steps required to accomplish the project objectives2.Tasks needed to be done at each step (using Work Breakdown Structures)3.Estimate of how much effort each task requires4.The resources required for each task5.(Given 3. and 4.) Calculation of how long each task/step will take6.(Given 4. and 5.) Calculation of task, step and project costs7.The inter-dependencies of tasks8.The schedule for each task and the whole project (Milstones, Deliverables, payments)

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  • Project Planning: set expectations of StakeholdersStakeholdersProject SponsorProject LeaderProject ManagerFinanceProcure-mentSystemsEngineeringSupportSalesMaintenanceIM/ITUsers

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  • Project Planning: Time and Cost EstimateIterativeAccuracyEstimates become more accuratePreliminary PlanFinal Plan0+25%-75%+15-50+10-25Initiation Planning Execution ClosingDefinition Analysis Design Proposal PlanRevised Plan

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  • Project ManagementModule 2: Scope Management

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  • Project Scope PlanningScope Management

    Ensuring that the project includes all the work required, only the work required.

    Dividing the work into major pieces, then subdividing into smaller, more manageable pieces.

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  • Work Breakdown Structure - Formats1. Organization Chart Method0. Title1. Major Phase 11.1Section 1 of Phase 12. Major Phase 23. Major Phase 31.2Section 2 of Phase 11.3Section 3 of Phase 1

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  • Work Breakdown Structure - Formats2. Outline Method

    0.TITLE1.MAJOR PHASE 11.1S1 OF PHASE11.2S2 OF PHASE11.3S3 OF PHASE12.MAJOR PHASE 2...etc.

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  • WBS - Typical TasksDetailed WBS Example for procuring an Equipment System

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  • Work Breakdown StructureSummary (Top Level) WBSSummary and Detail tasks, orParent and Child tasks (Work Package)

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  • Work Breakdown StructureUsing the Work Breakdown Structure

    1. Estimate and schedule the work (Durations, precedences on WBS)2. Organize and schedule resources (resource allocated WBS)3. Assign responsibilities (Resource ramp-up, resource allocated WBS)4. Estimate and allocate costs and budgets (costed WBS)5. Add up costs to different levelsTaskLevels on the WBS (phase, account/contract)Cost accountTotal project6. Get resource commitments7. Schedule start end dates8. Track expenditures, schedules and performance

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  • Project ManagementModule 3: Project Time Planning

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  • Project Time PlanningEstimating Effort: 3 Methods

    1. Professional JudgmentExpert picks a number (out of the air!)Requires an expertRequires experienceGood memoryMay ignore peopleVERY RELIABLE FOR THEMSELVES

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  • Project Time PlanningEstimating Efforts (contd)

    2. HistoryLook at tables of past actuals on major tasksInterpolateRequires professional judgmentRequires good history (which changes!)

    3. Formula3.1 VariablesDetermine major variable factors (task, person)Using measurement determine formula of factorsInterview and plug into formula

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  • Project Time PlanningEstimating Efforts (contd)

    3.2 Function PointsDetermine smallest pieces (function points) of project.Using measurement establish time for each one.For new project, break into function points; add up times, then multiply for worker productivity.

    (Possibly: Junior x 2, Average x 1, Senior x 0.5)

    FORMULA IS BEST (IN THEORY).

    IN REALITY,____________ BEST.

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  • Estimating use of HistoryRatios for Systems projectSYSTEMS ACTIVITIESDUR EFFORT

    SYSTEM SPECIFICATIONS11-15%6-10%SYSTEM DESIGN8-12%6-10%SOFTWARE REQUREMENTS2-4%3-5%SOFTWARE PRELIMINARY DESIGN5-7%4-6%SOFTWARE DETAILED DESIGN8-11%9-12%CODE AND UNIT TEST20-28%24-32%SOFTWARE INTEGRATION & TEST10-14%11-15%SOFTWARE QUALIFICATION5-7%2-4%SYTEM INTEGRATION & QUAL. 8-12%8-12%WARRANTY AND SUPPORTN/A7-10%

    MAKE YOUR OWN BASED ON THE MAJOR PHASES/PIECES!

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  • If Estimate was Effort, must convert it to Duration

    Duration = Effort/Resources (sometimes)

    Taking into account:Resource availabilityDesireSkillProductivity

    Scheduling

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  • Scheduling: Requires Duration and PrecedentsTwo Graphical tools for Scheduling:1. PERT Chart

    Plan (from WBS) TaskPrecedentDurationA- 7dBA3d C -10dDC5dE -4dFE6dGF3d

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  • SchedulingOrdering the Activities: PERT ChartArrow Diagramming Method (ADM)

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  • Scheduling - Gantt ChartOrder of building the Gantt Chart:Work BreakdownEstimates (duration)DependenciesResource use

    Gantt shows:Critical PathNon Critical Path(s)Early Start/FinishLate Start/FinishSlack

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  • Scheduling - Gantt Chart

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  • Scheduling - Gantt ChartGantt (Schedule) Drives

    1. MilestonesClear, concrete, binary events implying progressFor example: Review (with approval), Sign off of a deliverable, Funds approvedShown as 0 length task

    Try for even frequencyNot too closeNot more than 2 - 3 months apart

    Major Point to communicate withClientOutside worldManagement

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  • Scheduling - Gantt ChartGantt (Schedule) Drives

    TrainingMeetingsReviewsReportsSite preparationDelivery dates (date to order) for external itemsPayment

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  • Project ManagementModule 4:Resource Assignment and Cost Planning

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  • Assigning Resources

    AvailabilitySkillsMore experienced peopleLess experienced peopleDesireSimilar tasks to one person to use learning curveAssign critical tasks to most reliable peopleTasks that need interaction or are similarSame personTwo who communicatePersonality and team communication does matterand again, Availability

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  • Resource Loading and OptimizingGantt with Resource Histogram

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  • Resource leveling - possible reschedulingGantt with Resource Histogram

    Manual resource leveling: fast vs good vs cheapAutomatic resource leveling: use only as suggestion

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  • Cost EstimatingSimilar to Time Estimating (usually done by the same person/group that does the Time Estimates)

    Calculation of Cost for each WP:Example:If estimate was duration10 daysAssign human resources2 people

    Need Effort = Duration x ResourcesE=2x10=20pd e.g., Resource Cost (RC) = Effort x Rate(includes overhead) RC=20x$1,000=$20,000(Possible) Plus Fixed Cost (FC) e.g., FC = $5,000Total cost (TC) = Resource cost + Fixed Cost TC=20,000 + 5,000 = 25,000

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  • Costed WBSUse Software to roll costs up the WBS

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  • Cost Ramp-UpUse Software to report cash flow

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  • Cost - Sanity checksCost Estimate Error Range same as Time EstimateIndicative PPAInit PlanBudget EPAFinal PlanDefinitive PDRDesignPPA - Preliminary Project ApprovalEPA - EffectivePDR - Preliminary Design Review

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  • Project ManagementModule 5:Risk Management

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  • Risk ManagementPlanning and Control Processes

    Risk: anything not in the project plan that may occur and cause your project to be late, cost more or compromise its quality/performance.

    Risk is an opportunity as well as a threat:

    You dont put power brakes on a car to slow it down - you do so to allow it to go faster. -Mark Davies, KPMG

    We will concentrate on the threat.

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  • Four Steps of Risk Management1. IdentificationAnticipate the riskList the risks, event triggers, symptoms2. AnalysisEvaluate probability, impactQualitative vs Quantitative3. Risk ResponseStrategy Development to mitigate the risk:Eliminate the risk or reduce impactContingency planning4. Risk ControlMonitorUpdate lists, strategiesAction the contingency planFight the fires

    Which is most important??

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  • Step 1: Risk IdentificationAnticipate the RiskRisk Checklist at Preliminary Planning Time (Risk Taxonomy)

    Are we proposing the right solution?Any risk in technical components?Performance expectations reasonable?Is the hardware standard?How much experience do we have with it?Is the operating software standard? Well documented?How much experience do we have with it?Is the development method standard? Well documented?How much experience do we have with it?Any component availability risks?

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  • Step 1: Risk IdentificationRisk Checklist at Preliminary Planning Time (Risk Taxonomy)(contd)

    Does failure of this application affect the customers business?Is the project over 6 months? 12 months? 24 months?Does it need over 5 people?Are we dependent on third party resources? Internal? External?Who is the project manager?Who is the project leader/architect?Are the resources available when needed?Who is the client?Have we worked with this client? How is our relationship?Is client available when needed?

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  • Step 1: Risk Identification: InputsRisk Checklists, The WBS, Environment:PROJECT/PMECONOMIC& FINANCIALNATURALENVIRONMENTSCORPORATEPROGRAMSCORPORATEPOLICYAND CULTURETECHNOLOGYSENIORMANAGEMENTPOLITICALREGULATORYAND LEGALHUMAN FACTORSHEALTH & SAFETYHistory of past Similar Projects

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  • Step 2: Risk AnalysisEvaluate Probability and Impact into three levels: Low, Medium, High:

    Probability Criteria:Probability RankDescriptionHighMediumLowGreater than 66% probability of occurring34 to 65% probability of occurringLess than 33% probability of occurring

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  • Step 2: Risk AnalysisImpact Criteria:Determine a combined impact level based on which constraint is most affected.

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  • Step 2: Risk AnalysisDraw a Risk Table to SummarizeWonderful Management Tool/Report

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  • Step 3: Risk ResponseStrategy Development:Reduce the Probability and/or Impact of the Risk

    Risk Mitigation: Reducing the probability and/or impactTake immediate action. Can be risk avoidance (if eliminated) or risk reduction (still there, but probability or impact is reduced).Contingency PlansTake action only when the risk is imminent or has occurredOr Acceptance (do nothing), depends on Risk Tolerance

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  • Risk as a Monetary ValueTempering the Estimate

    Estimate range is

    ESTIMATE ESTIMATE + RISKTry to work within the range, depending on how crucial the accuracy has to be.If you can get several estimatesUse the Standard Deviations to give you confidence levels:Expected estimate +/- 1 SD gives you 68% confidenceExpected estimate +/- 2 SD gives you 95% confidenceExpected estimate +/- 3 SD gives you 99% confidence

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  • Project ManagementModule 6:Scope/ Time/ Cost Control

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  • Project Control Scope ControlScope Change ControlFormal change controlEvaluate cost/time impactRenegotiate, set expectationsImplement or defer to next releaseConfiguration ManagementKeep track of what changes were made to which modulesVersioningInteroperability of modules

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  • Project Control Schedule and CostStep 1 - Take a baseline.

    Baseline plan: a copy of the plan (WBS with all dates, assignments, costs).Used to report progress against the baseline.Taken at a mutually agreed upon planning point:Proposal or Analysis completion+25% to -10% stage

    Baseline is (theoretically) not alterableUnless major scope change occurs.

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  • Project Control Reporting Schedule using a Tracking GanttDouble Gantt: ShowsProject Schedule Progress vs baseline

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  • Project Control Cost Control/ReportingFinancial Report vs Baseline

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  • Project ManagementModule 7:Conclusions

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  • Resources AvailableTo help you Manage your Projects

    Training & LearningUniversitiesProject Management coursesMajor/Masters in ProjectOthers publicProject Management Institute (PMI)PMP Certification coursesPMI conferences250,000 members worldwideYour own Subject Matter Experts

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  • Resources AvailableTo help you Manage your Projects

    Training & LearningInternetPMI.orgMany sites: search on Project Management NASASoftware Engineering InstituteSoftware Productivity CenterDOD/PentagonProject Management Software (WBS, Schedule, Cost, Resource usage, Multiple project roll-up, Internet reporting,...)Microsoft ProjectPrimaveraOpen source: OpenProj

    John J. Rakos is available to teach or consult in any topic presented in this seminar.

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  • Final DetailsCan you be a good project manager?

    Ask yourself:

    Can I say 'NO'?Can I attack problems as soon as/even before they arise?

    Can I live unloved?

    If you do your job well,people will wonder what you do!

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    Classical definition of success is on time, budget, and does what the client expected it to do. However, must add to this:A happy team. The key stakeholder is your (the students) team. Project management is rules, structure, discipline. May turn people off. Do not over do it. Similarly, be careful about over managing the contractor (part of your team). They must make their profit.A happy client. The client must be involved in the process (the team cant just disappear and turn up six months later with the completed project). That is why we have phases, which provide milestones, intermediate deliverables, progress reports, reviews, etc. that the client must be involved in.Your upper level management (ULM) must also be happy: they also must be involved in the process. At your (PM) level, you will be communicating mostly with the client PM level of management. However, your ULM will be communicating with the clients ULM, and you do not wish hassles coming down the hierarchy. (Case of the client complaining to his ULM, who goes to your ULM, who does not know about the project.)This is the first introduction to how we approach the management of projects. This is from the PMBOK: Every project can be divided into 4 major phases: Concept where we document the original idea and get funding for the next phase.Planning where we detail the plan and get approval for the remainder. Execution (we do the work)/Control(we make sure everything follows the plan, react to problems, report progress) Closing where we document what went right and wrong, and close up.Note the line graph (and percentages) of effort expended. This is exactly the shape of the cost flow in an IT project, where 85-95% of the costs are people costs.

    Planning is hierarchical: big things (steps), break down to smaller things (tasks) to even smaller if necessary (activities), etc.Larger projectProject Leader: highest level person on contractor (project) sideProject Leader: highest level person on contractor (project) sideProject Sponsor: highest level person on client side

    Emphasize that planning is iterative. Time has passed since the preliminary plan was written. More knowledge exists.The graph demonstrated how estimating inaccuracy range goes down. Underestimating range (negative numbers) always seems to be greater. Why do we rarely overestimate? Too optimistic.The third knowledge area

    Timing:PM lecture: 13:00-14:00MSProject Lesson 1: 14:00-16:00

    xxNext knowledge area (of 9)Estimating is an iterative process.The first estimate is made when you write the preliminary project planIt is 50% to 100% inaccurate at that point.As you re-plan, you should be only 25-50% off.By the time the final plan is written, it should only be 10% off.

    3 methods of estimating:1. Professional Judgment2. History3. Formula

    Professional Judgment:Advantages: a) fast; b) can be extremely accurate if person is an expertDisadvantages: a) expert must be expert in that particular subject; b) difficult to find experts; c) estimate given is for how long it would take for that expert to do it (not someone else)Does not work to estimate for someone else!2. History- Need to keep track of history.- Write down how long each task took, and who did it.- Therefore, you need to break up the project into into tasks that are generally repeated and easily compared.

    3. Formula- There are basically two factors that affect the duration of a task1) the complexity of the task2) the productivity of the person performing it

    IN REALITY - PROFESSIONAL JUDGEMENT IS BEST90% of the time, this is what is usedYou should first take a good look at the time estimates before publishing them. Tools that help:Ratios : works on the fact the the same people in the same organization tend to develop similar projects. Projects themselves change but the rations of major phases or pieces is pretty constant.

    Do not use ratios like this: estimate one item, then extrapolate all the rest.Use instead: estimate all the items, compare to past ratios; examine if far out.Estimating for a project may have given you direct time (the number of person days). Need Duration to schedule.

    Dur = e.g., 10 person days (pd) of effort may take only 5 calendar days with 2 people doing it.Cant always divide: if it takes 10 days for one programmer to write a program, 2 may take11 days! This is due to the communication, management, dividing the work, etc.And how long it takes for a person takes into account all the other factors.

    PERT = Program Evaluation and Review Technique (invented by US Navy, 1950s, for Polaris missile project, which had 100,000 activities.)

    Table: A has no precedent, takes 7d duration.B has A as precedent, i.e., can not start before A is finished, etc.

    Each arrow represents a task. Starting and ending points are called nodes and are numbered. The nodes may be milestones (start or end of something major).A sequence of events (A-B. C-D, E-F-G) is called a path. PERT shows you what activities, or paths are occurring simultaneously. In this case A-B can be same time as C-D, and as E-F-G.Original PERT had only above information. In 1957 DuPont suggested putting durations with the PERT.With Dur, can calculate the critical path. The CP is the path that has the longest total duration. CP tells us minimum length of project, as well as the Critical Tasks. If a Critical Tasks takes longer than planned, it will delay the project. Critical path here is C-D (15 days) therefore C &D are critical eventsActivities not on the critical path have float or slack (a period of time that these activities can slip and still not affect the delivery date)Shortest path is A-B (10 days). This path has 15-10=5 days of slack.Path E-F-G (13 days) has 2 days of slack.Careful: CP does not stay put. What of E takes 7 days? This path is now critical. Also, if E takes 6 days, you have 2 CPs, (too many CPs is difficult to control). Time bar graph that everyone is familiar with.Joke: what does Gantt stand for? Invent something: Going Along with no Tracking or Training (pretty bad). ANS: guys name.See example next slide.Important dates:Early start (ES)Early finish (EF)Late start (LS)Late finish (LF)Scheduled start (SS)Scheduled finish (SF)

    Demo: item 5, Order hardware, has only Successor item 9, Implement as system. 5 has 3 months of slack, so it can be ordered as late as (end of) March before impacting CP. Therefore its ES is Jan, LS is Mar, EF is Aug LF is Nov.

    The PM may schedule it to start Feb to arrive Oct, which would then be the SS and SF. One of the most important reasons we have a schedule is to know when the milestones occur:- good opportunity to meet & interact with people involved- not too close: usually have a MS meeting, or need to work a bit harder to meet it.- not too far apart because the milestone meeting is a good occasion to see if something is amiss.

    Other items that come out of the Gantt.

    Conclusion: the Gantt is the PMs most important tool. He/she will be living and breathing Gantts because it can show all time dependencies.Third knowledge area.Resources are discussed here because 90% of the cost of a professional project (such as an IT project) is resource cost, in other words, people cost.Availability is first concern

    Assign tasks to individuals whose skill level suits the task - do not assign Mickey-mouse tasks to expert - boring- do not assign complex tasks to junior - overwhelming

    Ask if they wish to do it.

    Critical taskA reliable person is not necessarily the fastest: it is the one who will do his best to meet the deadline

    Assign similar tasks to the same person - this will reduce learning time and to minimize peoples interactions

    Availability: just because someone says Ill be avail July 1st when my present project is slated to finish - projects have been known to be late.

    Sometimes you have no choice; you only get the available people.Best way to see who is doing what is Resource histogram aligned with Gantt. MS Project can do). Do not explain the overload problem yetgo to next slide, then come back. When back here:Overload is caused by TL working on Architecture as well as prototype in June and July. Ask students for solutions, keeping in mind the balance of Good, Fast, Cheap:1. Do both half time. Fast. May not be possible2. Buy another resource: Fast; not Cheap. (look internally before looking externally). Hiring new person sometimes defeats fast because you have to train them3. Do overtime. Fast, not Cheap, not Good4. Reschedule Architecture to start after Prototype. Delays project by 3 mos.5. Stop work on prototype in June, do the Architecture, resume Prot. Seems best solution, only delays by 1 month.

    Best way to see who is doing what is Resource histogram aligned with Gantt. MS Project can do). Do not explain the overload problem yetgo to next slide, then come back. When back here:Overload is caused by TL working on Architecture as well as prototype in June and July. Ask students for solutions, keeping in mind the balance of Good, Fast, Cheap:1. Do both half time. Fast. May not be possible2. Buy another resource: Fast; not Cheap. (look internally before looking externally). Hiring new person sometimes defeats fast because you have to train them3. Do overtime. Fast, not Cheap, not Good4. Reschedule Architecture to start after Prototype. Delays project by 3 mos.5. Stop work on prototype in June, do the Architecture, resume Prot. Seems best solution, only delays by 1 month.

    Estimating Cost, as Time, is at WP (Work package) levelFixed Costs: Material, hardware, capital equipment tools, travel & living, etc.

    The WBS helps you organize cost entry and cost roll up. (Total Cost only).Cost Account here is just a user defined text field.Typical cumulative cost graphs. MS Project can do this only for Resource Costs, but can easily export all costs (resource + fixed) to Excel to produce such a graph.When was the estimate done? Expected error ranges. Be sure your management is aware.Next knowledge areaMost projects would be on time and on budget if nothing went wrong.

    Risk is not an item that is certain to occur.

    Example of opportunity: Manufacturer considers building new factory to market a new product. Opportunity for profit; risk if it does not sell.

    As opposed to the other knowledge areas, risk mgmt is a science and an art. With an art not everything is precise.1. IdentificationWrite down list of what can hit the project.event triggers warn you something will happen, risk is about to occur.2. QuantificationWe will evaluate both probability and impact to levels of Low, Medium, HighTabulate the risks based on these levels in order to see which are the 10-15 worst. Do this because you cannot do Response to more than 10-15 items.3. Risk ResponseStrategy: Can do something immediately to mitigate the risk.Can wait until the risk is imminentPrepare a specific action to do when the risk occurs: contingency plan.e.g. One strategy to avoid traffic jam due to accident on the way to work. Put someone on a busy street corner to tell you if there is an accident. This is how you will address the risk.4. Risk ControlRisk mgmt is not just planning, it must be on-going. Also, must fight the fires = reacting to the entirely unanticipated.Starting with Step 1:Done during preliminary planning stages .How do you know what will hit you? You can brainstorm, or there is a better method (that we will see).To brainstorm: use these questions to think of risk items. Comes from industry. First you take your risk list items and rank them according to their likelihood of occurrence. Must establish a criteria for High/Medium/Low. 66%,33% is just one set of numbers. This changes from project to project.

    See the art components - not everything is precise.

    Now, you take your risk list items (already ranked for probability) and rank them again according to how much damage they would incur. They can impact the Schedule, Cost or Quality.

    Look at the critical path and how this risk delays the project before you assign the schedule impact ranking.

    Quality depends on the project: e.g., if you are building the space shuttle (life critical systems), the quality impact will be the highest level.

    As a manager, you must remember that you cannot look at all risks (there are hundreds!) if you do, you will be doing only risk management, not Project Management, so must find the N worst risks.Take the ranked risk list items and fit them into the risk table.The red and orange are your worst risks; if you can address more include the yellow. You can also determine the overall project risk using this method. If many or most of your risks are Red/Orange, you have a High risk project.

    Total project risk classification for this example (L/M/H): HighStep 3: In the order of worst to less risks:Examples:Swap: add more resources to bring it in earlier.Different: build in-house instead of contract to reduce costParallel: Intel will have at least 2 separate contractors or manufacturing assemblies for a new chip. (Did you see Contact?)

    Here is one of the the major mistakes people make. They estimate ignoring the risks. (The second major mistake is that they have not anticipated risks and the risks kill the project.)Typically estimates should be given as a range and a confidence level. MITEL story.Confidence level is probabilistic: +- 1 SD is 68%+- 2 SD is 95, 3SD is 99.

    Risk lets you calculate expected ranges. Let the listener react.

    What about items that you have no clue of happening? Estimates are known knownsYou know the risk; you know it will happenRisks are known unknownsYou know the risk; you do not know if it will happenWhat about unknown unknowns?Fire, flood etc. Set aside management reserve

    So the monitoring methods give you progress information. What do you do with this information?

    Baseline: photocopy of all project info at a point.

    Progress report meaningless without comparison of where we should be.

    Recall 3 iterations of plan:

    Concept (+75 to -25% error range). Too inaccurate to take baseline.

    Proposal (+25 to -10% error range). Best take baseline.

    After design (+10 to -10% error range). Too late to take baseline.Major scope change: 25-33% changedSo the monitoring methods give you progress information. What do you do with this information?

    Baseline: photocopy of all project info at a point.

    Progress report meaningless without comparison of where we should be.

    Recall 3 iterations of plan:

    Concept (+75 to -25% error range). Too inaccurate to take baseline.

    Proposal (+25 to -10% error range). Best take baseline.

    After design (+10 to -10% error range). Too late to take baseline.Major scope change: 25-33% changedSimplest and best progress report.Note how easily it is seen exactly what happened on the project:Task 3 started and finished on time. (actual lines up with baseline)Task 4 started a week late, took a few days less than planned and is finished.Etc.Same as above except the Cost Table is shown to report forecast cost vs baseline.

    Another view can be the Work Table, which could be used to report forecast work.

    Will see these and other MS Project reports.Masters in PM can be had from U of Quebec, HullPM courses in U of Ottawa, PWGSC Institute, DNDEncouraged to join PMI, get PMPPMI.org has many PM seminars, conferences, books, and PMBOKNASA has a lot of PM documents and stories.SEI has software PM materialSPC is Canada's equivalent of SEI, again for software developmentDOD and Pentagon has all of the US military specs for project development.DNDNo is the most important word in the PMs vocabulary. Need to limit changes, limit digression, etc.PM must address the the instant it arises.PM is not loved. He/she is a heavy, rules, standards, says no to a lot of things. Is it the love of your people that you want or their loyalty and respect?