Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151The Politics of Reconstruction: The Case of Iraq

Fall Quarter 2008Instructor: Bojan Petrovic

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Demographic structure:

Shiites 55-60% Sunnis about 15-20% Kurds (Muslim and Yezidi) about 15-20% Assyrians, Mandeans, Turkmens, Roma (no more

than 3-5%)

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Security situation: Main actors

American and coalition troops; Sunni Arab insurgents; Shiite militias; Foreign (including al-Qaeda) insurgency groups; Criminal gangs (some associated with armed

political groups, others acting on their own)

Current security situation: Overall violence down at least 80 percent; Ethno-sectarian violence: down by over 90 percent; Through June, the number of violent civilian deaths has

averaged about 700 a month in 2008, a lower rate than in any previous year of the war (with the possible exception of 2003).

U.S. military deaths in Iraq have dropped from about 70 a month in early 2007 to about 25 a month now, and the death rate for the ISF has fallen by half, from 200 a month to about 100.

Two important sources of threat (more recently, before the “surge”):

Al-Qaeda and supporting insurgent groups.

The faction led by Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi militia.

Security situation (problems remain):

Kirkuk

Political situation:

a) Sectarian central government;b) Corruption;c) Little influence over regions.

Economy: Stalled recovery; Current growth under 5% (moderate given high oil prices); Dependency on oil exports and international aid; High unemployment rates.