INTL FCStone Inc. NASDAQ INTL I CONGRESO NACIONAL DE PRODUCTORES PORCICOLAS Perspectiva de los...
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Transcript of INTL FCStone Inc. NASDAQ INTL I CONGRESO NACIONAL DE PRODUCTORES PORCICOLAS Perspectiva de los...
INTL FCStone Inc.www.intlfcstone.comNASDAQ “INTL”
I CONGRESO NACIONAL DE PRODUCTORES PORCICOLAS
Perspectiva de los Precios de los Granos
Ricardo GarciaSr. Risk Management Consultant
División Latinoamérica
MAIZ
División América Latina
CONDICION CULTIVO
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
OFERTA/DEMANDA MUNDIAL DE MAÍZ, USDA (mtm)- Octubre 2012
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
- 6.7
- 2.1
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Mundial
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Mundial Maiz
$
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
OFERTA/DEMANDA EUA DE MAÍZ USDA (mb)- Octubre 2012
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
EUA
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
ZONAS PRODUCTORAS
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
EUA
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
EUA
Oferta y Demanda Mundial Maíz USDA Octubre 2012
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
ZONAS PRODUCTORAS
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
ZONAS PRODUCTORAS
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
MAIZ-BRASIL
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
MAIZ-ARGENTINA
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
MIAZ-CHINA
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Futuro Maíz continuo
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
OLEAGINOSAS
División América Latina
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Oferta y Demanda Mundial Fríjol SoyaUSDA Octubre 2012 (mtm)
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Mundial
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Mundial-Frijol de Soya
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Análisis Fundamental EUA – Oferta y Demanda Fríjol Soya
USDA Octubre 2012
(Millones de-) Acres Has Acres Has Acres Has Acres HasSup. Sembrada 77.4 31.32 75 30.35 76.1 30.80 77.2 31.24Sup. Cosechada 76.6 31.00 73.8 29.87 74.6 30.19 75.7 30.64
Bu/Acre TM/Ha Bu/Acre TM/Ha Bu/Acre TM/Ha Bu/Acre TM/Ha43.5 2.93 41.9 2.82 35.3 2.37 37.8 2.54
(Millones de-) Bu MTM Bu MTM Bu MTM Bu MTMInv. Inicial 151 4.11 215 5.85 130 3.54 169 4.60
Producción 3329 90.60 3094 84.20 2634 71.69 2860 77.84Importaciones 14 0.38 16 0.44 20 0.54 20 0.54
Disponible 3495 95.12 3325 90.49 2785 75.80 3050 83.01
Extracción 1648 44.85 1703 46.35 1500 40.82 1540 41.91Exportaciones 1501 40.85 1360 37.01 1055 28.71 1265 34.43
Semilla 87 2.37 90 2.45 89 2.42 89 2.42Residual 43 1.17 2 0.05 25 0.68 26 0.71
Uso Total 3280 89.27 3155 85.87 2670 72.67 2920 79.47
Inv. Final 215 5.85 169 4.60 115 3.13 130 3.54
Indice Inv fin/uso
Oct2011/12 Est. Sep
Rendimiento
2010/11
4.45%6.55% 5.36% 4.31%
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
SOYA-EUA
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Oferta y Demanda Mundial Fríjol Soya USDA Octubre 2012
2010/112011/12
Est.Sep Oct 2010/11
2011/12 Est.
Sep Oct 2010/112011/12
Est.Sep Oct
MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTMInv. Inicial 16.64 22.89 13.99 13.48 22.28 22.87 18.47 18.94 13.26 14.56 14.91 14.74 Producción 75.50 66.50 81.00 81.00 49.00 41.00 55.00 55.00 15.10 13.50 12.60 12.60
Importaciones 0.04 0.10 0.25 0.25 0.01 - - - 52.34 58.00 59.50 61.00 Disponible 92.18 89.49 95.24 94.73 71.29 63.87 73.47 73.94 80.70 86.06 87.01 88.34
Molienda 36.33 36.70 36.80 36.80 37.61 35.73 38.20 38.70 55.00 60.07 63.90 64.20 Exportaciones 29.95 36.32 39.10 37.40 9.21 7.60 13.50 12.00 0.19 0.25 0.25 0.25
Uso Total 39.33 39.70 39.89 39.89 39.21 37.33 39.85 40.35 65.95 71.07 75.02 75.32
Inv. Final 22.89 13.48 16.25 17.44 22.87 18.94 20.12 21.59 14.56 14.74 11.74 12.77
BRASIL ARGENTINA CHINA
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
SOYA-BRASIL
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
SOYA-ARGENTINA
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
SOYA-CHINA
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Futuro Frijol de soya continuo
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Futuro Frijol de (Detalle)
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Oferta y Demanda Mundial de Harina de Soya (mtm) 10/2012
2010/11 2011/12 Est. 2012/13 Proj. Sep 2012/13 Proj. OctMTM MTM MTMT MTM
Inv. Inicial 6.7 8.9 9.2 9.1Producción 174.5 178.3 179.1 180.7Importaciones 56.4 57.6 58.0 58.4
Disponible 237.5 244.8 246.3 248.2
Uso Doméstico 170.0 176.3 178.6 179.5Exportaciones 58.6 59.4 60.3 60.6
Uso Total 228.6 235.7 238.9 240.1
Inv. Final 8.9 9.1 7.4 8.1
Inv fin/uso 3.91% 3.88% 3.09% 3.38%
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Mundial
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Producción Harina de Soya Mundial
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Oferta y Demanda Harina de Soya EUA
2010/11 2011/12 Est. 2012/13 Proj. Sep 2012/13 Proj. OctMiles de Ton Cortas Miles de Ton Cortas Miles de Ton Cortas Miles de Ton Cortas
Inv. Inicial 302 350 300 300
Producción 39,251 41,240 35,700 36,700 Importaciones 180 210 300 300
Disponible 39,732 41,800 36,300 37,300
Uso Doméstico 30,301 31,900 29,200 29,500 Exportaciones 9,081 9,600 6,800 7,500 Uso Total 39,382 41,500 36,000 37,000
Inv. Final 350 300 300 300
Inv fin/uso 0.89% 0.72% 0.83% 0.81%
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Producción Harina de Soya EUA (mtm)
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
NOPA - Harina de Soya EUA Uso y Exportación – Septiembre 2012 (Tc)
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Mundial-Harina de Soya
2010/112011/12
Est.Sep Oct 2010/11
2011/12 Est.
Sep Oct2011/12
Est.Sep Oct
MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTMInv. Inicial 2.16 2.89 2.88 2.58 1.79 2.76 3.11 3.21 0.55 0.22 0.22 Producción 28.16 28.44 28.52 28.52 29.31 27.83 29.80 30.15 8.96 8.71 8.71
Importaciones 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.05 - - - - 21.20 21.90 11.26 Disponible 30.38 31.37 31.45 31.15 31.10 30.59 32.91 33.36 30.71 30.83 20.19
Uso Doméstico 13.50 14.00 14.40 14.40 0.72 0.76 0.77 0.77 29.71 30.06 30.06 Exportaciones 13.99 14.78 14.50 14.50 27.62 26.63 30.10 29.76 0.78 0.55 0.55
Uso Total 27.49 28.78 28.90 28.90 28.34 27.39 30.87 30.53 30.49 30.61 30.61
Inv. Final 2.89 2.58 2.55 2.25 2.76 3.21 2.04 2.83 0.22 0.21 0.21 Inv fin/uso 10.5% 9.0% 8.8% 7.8% 9.7% 11.7% 6.6% 9.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
BRASIL ARGENTINA EU-27
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Producción Harina de Soya Argentina (mtm)
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Exportación Harina de Soya Argentina (mtm)
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Producción Harina de Soya Brasil (mtm)
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Exportación Harina de Soya Brasil (mtm)
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Futuro Harina de Soya continuo
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Precio Pasta de Soya, (Detalle)
TRIGO
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
CAMBIOS EN EL REPORTE DEOCTUBRE
Oferta/Demanda Mundial De TrigoUSDA OCTUBRE 2012 (mtm)
Sep OctMTM MTM MTM
Inv. Inicial 200.7 197.9 198.6 198.2
Producción 652.0 695.7 658.7 653.1Importaciones 131.7 147.8 135.4 135.0
Disponible 984.3 1041.4 992.8 986.2
Exportaciones 132.5 156.5 134.8 130.9Forraje 116.5 144.4 132.1 134.5
Uso Total 654.7 695.5 680.7 678.2
Inv. Final 197.9 198.2 176.7 173.0
Inv fin/uso 30.23% 28.49% 25.96% 25.51%
2010/112012/13 Proj. 2011/12
Est.
-0.4-5.6-0.4
-6.4
-4.02.4
-3.7
-2.5
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Producción Mundial
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
OFERTA Y DEMANDA E INVENTARIOS MUNDIALES
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Análisis Fundamental EUA – Oferta y Demanda de Trigo
USDA OCTUBRE 2012
(Millones de-) Acres Has Acres Has Has HasSup. Sembrada 53.60 21.69 54.40 22.02 22.66 22.54 Sup. Cosechada 47.60 19.26 45.70 18.49 19.75 19.83
Bu/Acre TM/Ha Bu/Acre TM/Ha TM/Ha TM/Ha46.30 3.11 43.70 2.94 3.13 3.11 Bu MTM Bu MTM MTM MTM
Inventario Inicial 976 26.56 862 23.46 20.22 20.22 Producción 2,207 60.06 1,999 54.40 61.72 61.75 Importaciones 97 2.64 112 3.05 3.54 3.54 Disponible 3,280 89.27 2,973 80.91 85.48 85.51
Alimento 926 25.20 941 25.61 25.85 25.85 Semilla 71 1.93 76 2.07 1.99 1.99 Forrajero y Residual 132 3.59 164 4.46 5.99 8.57 Exportaciones 1,289 35.08 1,050 28.58 32.66 31.30
Uso Total 2,417 65.78 2,231 60.72 66.49 67.71
Inv. Final 863 23.49 742 20.19 19.00 17.80 Inv fin/uso
Rendimiento
2010/11 2011/12 Est. 2012/13 Proj.
Sep Oct
35.71% 33.26% 26.29%28.57%
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Inventarios/Uso EUA
Ex Unión Soviética -12
2010/112011/12
Est. Sep Oct2010/11
2011/12 Est. Sep Oct
MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTMInv. Inicial 14.72 13.74 10.44 10.44 2.36 3.34 5.18 5.16 Producción 41.51 56.23 39.00 38.00 16.84 22.12 15.50 15.50
Importaciones 0.09 0.10 0.50 1.00 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.10 Disponible 56.32 70.07 49.94 49.44 19.24 25.54 20.78 20.76
Uso Forrajero 16.00 15.50 13.50 13.00 2.80 6.10 3.80 3.80 Exportaciones 3.98 21.63 8.00 9.00 4.30 5.44 4.00 4.00
Uso Total 38.60 38.00 35.50 35.00 2.80 14.95 12.30 12.30
Inv. Final 13.74 10.44 6.44 5.44 3.34 5.16 4.48 4.46
RUSIA UCRANIA
Ucrania no registra cambios significativos
Ex Unión Soviética -12
2010/112011/12
Est. Sep Oct2010/11
2011/12 Est. Sep Oct
MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTMInv. Inicial 4.30 2.88 6.63 6.63 25.84 23.64 26.56 26.60 Producción 9.64 22.73 10.50 10.50 81.06 114.42 78.96 77.71
Importaciones 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 5.66 7.57 6.09 6.51 Disponible 13.95 25.62 17.14 17.14 112.56 145.63 111.61 110.82
Uso Forrajero 1.90 2.60 2.20 2.20 23.73 27.53 22.83 22.28 Exportaciones 4.86 11.39 7.00 7.00 13.88 39.28 19.61 20.61
Uso Total 6.20 7.60 7.00 7.00 23.73 79.76 73.96 73.36
Inv. Final 2.88 6.63 3.14 3.14 23.64 26.60 18.05 16.86
KAZAKHSTAN FSU-12
Kazakistán sin cambios este mes
Ex Unión Soviética
Rusia
Kazakistán
Ucrania
AUSTRALIA
2010/112011/12
Est. Sep OctMTM MTM MTM MTM
Inv. Inicial 5.59 8.34 7.72 6.26 Producción 27.41 29.52 26.00 23.00
Importaciones 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 Disponible 33.12 37.98 33.84 29.38
Uso Forrajero 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.30 Exportaciones 18.66 25.00 21.00 18.00
Uso Total 6.13 6.73 6.74 6.54
Inv. Final 8.34 6.26 6.10 4.84
AUSTRALIA
-3.0
-3.0
-1.46
-1.26
Oferta y Demanda Argentina
2010/112011/12
Est. Sep OctMTM MTM MTM MTM
Inv. Inicial 2.34 4.11 0.56 0.96 Producción 17.20 15.50 11.50 11.50
Importaciones 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Disponible 19.55 19.62 12.07 12.47
Uso Forrajero 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Exportaciones 9.49 12.70 5.50 5.50
Uso Total 0.10 5.95 6.00 6.00
Inv. Final 4.11 0.96 0.57 0.97
ARGENTINA
+0.4
+0.4
Argentina
Argentina
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Futuro Trigo Chicago continuo
ACEITES VEGETALES
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Aceites Vegetales
Oferta & Demanda Mundial de Aceite de SoyaUSDA Octubre 2012 (mtm)
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Sep Octmtm mtm mtm mtm
Inv. Inicial 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6
Producción 41.3 42.2 42.3 42.7Importaciones 9.2 8.1 8.0 8.2
Disponible 53.8 53.8 53.7 54.4
Uso Doméstico 40.7 41.8 43.1 43.6Exportaciones 9.5 8.4 8.4 8.5
Uso Total 50.2 50.2 51.5 52.1
Inv. Final 3.6 3.6 2.2 2.4
Indice Inv fin/uso 7.11% 7.09% 4.29% 4.51%
2010/11 2011/12 Est.
2012/13 Proj.
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Uso Mundial de Aceite de Soya USDA Octubre 2012 (mtm)
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EUA – Aceite de Soya Oferta & Demanda USDA Octubre 2012 (mln/lb)
2010/11 2011/12 Est. Sep Octm/lbs m/lbs m/lbs m/lbs
Inv. Inicial 3,406 2,425 2,720 2,620
Producción 18,888 19,795 17,145 17,600 Importaciones 159 150 195 350
Disponible 22,453 22,370 20,060 20,570
Uso Doméstico 16,795 18,300 17,600 18,100 Exportaciones 3,233 1,450 1,200 1,200
Uso Total 20,028 19,750 18,800 19,300
Inv. Final 2,425 2,620 1,260 1,270
Inv fin/uso 12.11% 13.27% 7% 7%
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
EUA – Producción y Uso Aceite de Soya USDA Octubre 2012 (mln/lb)
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Inventario Excedente Aceite de Soya EUA – USDA Octubre 2012
Brasil– Aceite de Soya Oferta & DemandaUSDA Octubre 2012 (mtm)
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
2010/11 2011/12
Proj.Sep Oct 2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Sep Oct
MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTMInv. Inicial 0.20 0.30 0.32 0.27 0.29 0.40 0.33 0.33 Producción 7.18 6.82 7.30 7.38 6.97 7.04 7.06 7.06
Importaciones - - - - - - - - Disponible 7.38 7.12 7.62 7.65 7.26 7.44 7.39 7.39
Exportaciones 4.56 3.83 4.07 4.07 1.67 1.85 1.70 1.73 Uso Total 2.52 3.02 3.27 3.32 5.19 5.26 5.37 5.37
Inv. Final 0.30 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.40 0.33 0.32 0.30
MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTM MTMInv. Inicial 0.32 0.27 0.19 0.16 0.21 0.20 0.32 0.42 Producción 2.24 2.08 2.02 2.02 9.84 10.75 11.44 11.49
Importaciones 0.91 0.45 0.50 0.50 1.32 1.30 1.30 1.30 Disponible 3.47 2.80 2.71 2.68 11.37 12.25 13.06 13.21
Exportaciones 0.46 0.62 0.35 0.42 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 Uso Total 2.74 2.02 2.24 2.10 11.11 11.77 12.66 12.70
Inv. Final 0.27 0.16 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.42 0.34 0.45
CHINA
ARGENTINA BRASIL
UE-27
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Uso e Importación de Aceite de Soya en China - USDA Octubre 2012 (mtm)
Precios Históricos de Aceite de Soya
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Precios Históricos Aceite de Palma
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“Perspectiva de los Precios
de los Granos”
Factores que continuarán afectando el comportamiento del precio en los commodities
agrícolas
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
Factores Críticos
• Rendimientos Maíz y Soya en USA• Mandato de Combustibles Renovables• Producción Sudamericana (Clima Brasil y Argentina)• Crecimiento/Desaceleración de la economía China• Economía Europea y Estados Unidos• Superficie de siembra 2013/14• Actividad Exportadora de Trigos del Mar Negro• Contracción de la demanda de granos y volatilidad
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
FCStone LatinoaméricaRicardo García
001-800-220-1903