COUNCIL OF STATE DEBATES...fixed by the latter. The.se· terms !U1d oonditiOJl8
Internet Futures. Here I am channelling Anders Rockstrom of Telia Sonera, whose presentation at...
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Transcript of Internet Futures. Here I am channelling Anders Rockstrom of Telia Sonera, whose presentation at...
Internet Futures
Internet Futures
Here I am channelling Anders Rockstromof Telia Sonera, whose presentation atthe .se event in October 2006 had aprofound impact on me – he stated the truth so clearly and simply it was an irresistible message. More folk should hear what he has to say – so this is your opportunity!
I’ve made some changes to match whats been happening since 2006, but I think that the essential message remains the same – thanks Anders!
Geoff
Internet Futures
user s
technology
purpose:
share some musings about this industry and its future
think about some of the major factors that will shape our future
user s
technology
whyThis industry has a rich history
whyThis industry has a rich history
…of making poor guesses
whyThis industry has a rich history
…of making poor guesses
and being taken bysurprise!
whyThis industry has a rich history
…of making poor guesses
and being taken bysurprise!
could we do a better job?
One approach:
1. Observe the situation and what’s happening
2. Believe what we see
3. Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way
(the most difficult one!)
User forces on the Market
passiv
activeYouT ube
From radio to tv to ?
From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ?
Revenue Profile
Revenue Profile
How to fill the gap of theInternet’s revenue leak
Service Profile
open vswalled
garden
How to fill the gap of theInternet’s revenue leak
Service Profile
open vswalled
garden
vsinfrastruc.services
services/content
How to fill the gap of theInternet’s revenue leak
Service Profile
open vswalled
garden
vsinfrastruc.services
services/content
vsuserproduced
coachpotatoe
How to fill the gap of theInternet’s revenue leak
Service Profile
open vswalled
garden
vsinfrastruc.services
services/content
vsuserproduced
coachpotatoe
e.t.c
How to fill the gap of theInternet’s revenue leak
driverdimensions
driverdimensions
++
Usage
driverdimensions
++
‘’
empowered userspenetration
Usage
B u s in e s s
driverdimensions
++
‘’
empowered userspenetration
?
technology
‘Moore’-typeof pacesurplus
fast refillenabling windows
++
technology
‘Moore’-typeof pacesurplus
fast refillenabling windows
? see it ...... seize it !
++
technology
‘Moore’-typeof pacesurplus
fast refillenabling windows
? see it ...... seize it !
general trend
networkshared
end userterminal
shift
ofpower
++
technologynew productionparadigms
technology
networkshared
end userterminal
new productionparadigms
e.g Skype
netw a network- service‘ ‘produced outside
o f the network‘ ‘
Over the topapps
technology
networkshared
end userterminal
new productionparadigms
e.g Skype
netw a network- service‘ ‘produced outside
o f the network‘ ‘
mobilitymulti/broad-cast
...
Over the topapps
technology
networkshared
end userterminal
new productionparadigms
e.g Skype
netw a network- service‘ ‘produced outside
o f the network‘ ‘
mobilitymulti/broad-cast
...
Over the topapps
Content is a commodityapplication that users do rather than a valuable service that is delivered by service providers
technologysurplus enablesdivergencefor
simplicityperformance
technologysurplus enablesdivergencefor
simplicityperformance
QoS
Network VPNs
IMS
technologysurplus enablesdivergencefor
simplicityperformance
no need fo rIP- convergence
QoS
Network VPNs
IMS
technologysurplus enablesdivergencefor
simplicityperformance
no need fo rIP- convergence
Web enabled user generatedcontent
doppleryoutube
wikipedia
QoS
Network VPNs
IMS
technologysurplus enablesdivergencefor
simplicityperformance
no need fo rIP- convergence
heterogenietyconvergence complemented
with divergence
interoperabilitywhen there is a
use fo r it
Web enabled user generatedcontent
QoS
Network VPNs
IMS
doppleryoutube
wikipedia
usagepenetrationwho and how
usagepenetrationwho and how
1: st gener at i onon demandpeep- hol ec/ s
passive
usagepenetrationwho and how
1: st gener at i onon demandpeep- hol ec/ s
2: nd gener at i onal l ways on
p/ p ser vi ces
passive
usagepenetrationwho and how
1: st gener at i onon demandpeep- hol ec/ s
2: nd gener at i onal l ways on
p/ p ser vi ces
3:d generationnetwork resident
passive
active
usagepenetrationInternet_paradigm(t)a penetration detour?
“pure”Internet
piggy
-bac
king
telep
hony
gen-1client/
server
gen-3
back tothe roo ts?
twilightzone
gen-2
ngn
ims
critical infrastructuresustainability
usage
sustainable
environmenteconomy
social
(Dataföreningen)Users
have
do n t´w an t
Infrastructure roles
usage
fuelling the usage growth fire
usage
fuelling the usage growth fire
usage = scaling
usage
fuelling the usage growth fire
bandwidthswitching
routingaddressing
usage = scaling
storage
delivering
power heat dissipationmemory speedsilicon density
storage efficiency
Please send heaps more….
fibre routes
usage
fuelling the usage growth fire
bandwidthswitching
routingaddressing
usage = scaling
storage
delivering
power heat dissipationmemory speedsilicon density
storage efficiency
But is bigger always cheaper?
Please send heaps more….
fibre routes
usage
fuelling the usage growth fire
bandwidthswitching
routingaddressing
usage = scaling
storage
delivering
power heat dissipationmemory speedsilicon density
storage efficiency
But is bigger always cheaper?and what happens when its not?
Please send heaps more….
fibre routes
T echno logy Business
Usage
?
Businessmodelling
LegacyCultureRegulation
..today operatorstend to be veryhype driven ..
convergenceseemlessnet
NGN - . . .
Everone is talkingabout it
Fewhave actualexperience
.. andthe actualexperiences aremostly failures
T echno logy Business
Usage
?
Businessmodelling
new operatorroles
new businesslogics
.. involving users and other stake-holders
Businessmodelling
Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity
Low margins
No product differentiation
Low barriers to entry
Deregulation and competitionValued services are overlays to the network
Businessmodelling
Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity
Low margins
No product differentiation
Low barriers to entry
Deregulation and competition
Traditional revenue streams are vaporizingWired telephony Business data products
Mobile telephonyLocal Accessmonopolies
Valued services are overlays to the network
Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity
Low margins
No product differentiation
Low barriers to entry
Deregulation and competition
Traditional revenue streams are vaporizingWired telephony Business data products
Mobile telephonyLocal Accessmonopolies
Investors are getting very nervous about telcos
Cost of capital is rising
Shareholder returns need to stay highConsumers are fleeing legacy telcos in the face of price gouging
No residual expertise left in-house
Valued services are overlays to the network
Businesstoday’s telco pressure points …
So where arewe heading ?
commodity utilitynetwork operation
network
high capacitypacket pushing
So where arewe heading
user - drive, productionp2p,content, ..
?
commodity utilitynetwork operation
User-centric applications,not network-centric services
Value shift upthe protocol stack
network
high capacitypacket pushing
So where arewe heading
user - drive, productionp2p,content, ..
involving userspartners
?
We are reinventing this industryon the fly
Reinvention:
new
and different business models
commodity utilitynetwork operation
User-centric applications,not network-centric services
Value shift upthe protocol stack
network
high capacitypacket pushing
thank you
