Internet Addressing andthe RIR system (part 2)

12 February 2004

Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Paul Wilson, APNIC

Overview – Part 2

• Allocation statistics – Asia Pacific Internet Resource statistics– Global Internet Resource statistics– IPv4 lifetime expectation

• More on Addressing policy– How to participate in open policy

processes

APNIC Internet Resource Allocation

Resource Allocation Statistics

• IP addresses mirror Internet growth– Represent deployed infrastructure– Distributed in consistent fashion– APNIC can provide objective, factual info

• Analysis of trends…– Allocation patterns per country over time– Comparison with other regions– Correlation of IP addresses with...

• Population, GDP, etc

IPv4 addresses allocated - annual

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

Pre-1996 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Mill

ions

Other

TW

THSG

NZ

MY

KRJP

IN

ID

HKCN

AU

IPv4 addresses allocated - total

2002: 1.60

2001: 1.7

2000: 1.24

1999: 0.54

2003: 1.96

1998: 0.27

0

16

32

48

64

80

96

112

128

144

160

Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04

Mill

ions 222

221220219218211210203202061060

IPv4 distribution in Asia Pacific

SG1%

NZ1%

TH1%

TW7%

ID1%

KR19%

CN28%

JP32%

Other8%

Other1%

AU3%

HK3%

IN2%

MY1%

ASNs assigned - cumulative

2003: 358

2001: 449

2000: 634

1999: 342

2002: 614

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03

ASN distribution in Asia Pacific

KR20%

JP19%

AU17%

HK8%

ID3%

IN3%

SG3%

MY1%

Other13%

Other3%

TH3%

PH3%

CN6%

TW5%

NZ4%

AP1% PK

1%

Global Internet Resource Statistics

IPv4 Address Space Status: /8

Total /8 blocks available: 256

92

16

91

16

16

2

11

12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Central Registry

Multicast

IANA Reserve

Experimental

ARIN

LACNIC

APNIC

RIPE NCC

IPv4 allocations from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Yearly comparison

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

APNIC

ARIN

LACNIC

RIPE NCC

1 Jan 99 – 31 Dec 03

IPv4 allocations from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Cumulative total

RIPE NCC6.82 31%

APNIC7.24 33%

LACNIC0.342%

ARIN7.89 34%

ASN assignments from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Yearly comparison

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

APNIC

ARIN

LACNIC

RIPE NCC

1 Jan 99 – 31 Dec 03

ASN assignments from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Cumulative total

ARIN10388 54%

RIPE NCC 563630%

LACNIC5403%

APNIC2371 13%

IPv6 allocations from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Yearly comparison

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

APNICARINLACNICRIPE NCC

IPv6 allocations from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Cumulative total

1 Jan 99 – 31 Dec 03

RIPE NCC27956%

ARIN84

16%

LACNIC143% APNIC

12825%

IPv4 Address Lifetime Expectancy

- Are we running out of IPv4 addresses?

Research activityconducted by Geoff Huston

and supported by APNIC

Are We Running Out of IPv4?

• Recent media reports claiming we are running out of IP addresses– Some claim we’ve already run out in some parts

of the world

• But what are the facts?– Is the IPv4 sky falling?

• Geoff Huston, chief scientist in the Internet area at Telstra, has studied the IPv4 consumption rates

http://www.potaroo.net/ispcolumn/2003-07-v4-address-lifetime/ale.pdf

Data Analysed

• Three views to make forward projections:– The rate at which IPv4 number blocks

are passed from IANA to the RIRs– The rate at which RIRs undertake

assignments of IPv4 address blocks to LIRs and end users

– The growth of the number of announced addresses in the BGP routing table

Address Management Process

RIR

ISPA

lloca

tion

ISP

BGP

Ann

ounc

emen

t

IETF

IANA

Del

egat

ion

IANA

RIR

Allo

catio

n

IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%

Multicast, 16, 6%

IANA Pool, 89, 35%

IANA Allocated, 130.9, 51%

IANA Allocations – Current

IANA Allocations – Historical

0

32

64

96

128

Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03

RIR Allocations – Current Status

IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%

Multicast, 16, 6%

IANA Pool, 89, 35%

RIR Pool, 14, 5%

Assigned, 116.9, 46%Allocated

RIR Allocations – Historical

RIR Assigned IPv4 /8 Address Blocks

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03

BGP Routing Table – Current

IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%

Multicast, 16, 6%

IANA Pool, 89, 35%

RIR Pool, 14, 5%

Assigned, 42.4, 17%

Advertised, 74.5, 29%

BGP Routing Table - AS1221

Another look at that BGP data…Linear Squares Best Fit

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

Nov-99 Feb-00 May-00 Aug-00 Nov-00 Feb-01 May-01 Aug-01 Nov-01 Feb-02 May-02 Aug-02 Nov-02 Feb-03 May-03 Aug-03

Combined Data (3 years)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03

IANARIRBGP

Projection – linear

2047

2031 2037

0

32

64

96

128

160

192

224

Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 Jan-20 Jan-25 Jan-30 Jan-35 Jan-40 Jan-45

IANA

RIR

BGP

Projection – exponential

2020 2022

0

32

64

96

128

160

192

224

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 Jan-24 Jan-26 Jan-28

IANA

RIR

BGP

Observations

• Extrapolation of current allocation practices and BGP-based demand model

• Derived from 2000-2003 data• Considering

– IANA/RIR unallocated pool– Total address space including allocated but

unannounced

• Assuming exponential growth– Address space lasts until 2025, or up to 2029

• Assuming linear growth– Address space lasts until 2037 - 2047

Issues

• This is just a model - reality will be different!• Will the BGP routing table continue to

reflect allocation rates? • Is the model of the unadvertised pools and

RIR holding pools appropriate?• Externalities…

– What are the underlying growth drivers (applications) and how are these best modeled?

– What forms of disruptive events would alter this model, and to what extent?

– Should address management policies change as a result of these results?

Questions ?

Policy Development in the Asia Pacific

The APNIC Community

&

the Policy Development Process

What is the APNIC community?

Global Internet Community

APNIC Internet Community

IETF

ISOC

Individuals

APNIC Members

APAN PITA

ISP Associations

Policy Development

• Industry self-regulatory processes– Open to all interested parties– Facilitated by RIR staff and volunteers

• Policy implementation– RIR processes– ISPs and other affected parties

Participation in policy processes

• Why should I bother?– Responsibility as an APNIC member

• To be aware of the current policies for managing address space allocated to you

– Business reasons• Policies affect your business operating

environment and are constantly changing• Ensure your ‘needs’ are met

– Educational• Learn and share experiences• Stay abreast with ‘best practices’ in the

Internet

Policy development cycle

OPEN

TRANSPARENT‘BOTTOM UP’

Anyone can participate

All decisions & policies documented & freely available to anyone

Internet community proposes and approves policy

Need

DiscussEvaluate

Implement Consensus

Elements of the process

MemberMeeting

Working Groups

Birds of a Feather

Special InterestGroups

Open Policy Processes

SIGs: Formal groups which discuss broad areas of policy relevant to the APNIC internet community BOFs: Informal meetings to

exchange ideas eg. CA BOF, Network Abuse BOF, Training Need to hold at least one to form new SIG

WGs: semi formal, volunteer group tasked by a SIG to work on a particular project until completed eg. ‘Broadband’

MM: forum specific to APNIC business eg. fee structure, election of executive council & endorsement of policy decisions

Policy development in practice

New policy or amendment proposed

Endorsement by MM?

Report of consensus in SIG to MM

Consensus?

Implementation 3 months

Posted to SIG ML for discussion

Face to face discussions in public open forum (SIGs)

YES

YES

NO

NO

How to make your voice heard

• Contribute on the public mailing lists– http://www.apnic.net/community/lists

• Attend meetings– Or send a representative– Gather input at forums

• Give feedback– Training or seminar events

Come to the APNIC meeting!

Next meeting in conjunction with

APRICOT 2004Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 18-27 February 2004

• Participate in policy development• Attend workshops, tutorials & presentations• Exchange knowledge and information with peers• Stay abreast with developments in the Internet• View multicast online• Provide your input in matters important to you

http://www.apnic.net/meetings/

Questions ?

Thanks

pwilson@apnic.net