INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Nov 2011 COP 17 Durban Gaëtan Siew UIA P President GLOBALTRENDS...
Transcript of INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS Nov 2011 COP 17 Durban Gaëtan Siew UIA P President GLOBALTRENDS...
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INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS
Nov 2011
COP 17COP 17DurbanDurban
Gaëtan Siew UIA P President
GLOBALGLOBAL TRENDSTRENDS
“It is not a matter of predicting the future, but of being prepared for it”Pericles (500-429 BC) Greek politician and commander
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A World of Global ImbalancesContrasted TerritoriesRegionalisationPower and Complexity of NetworksNew PartnershipsGlobal Governance
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A World of Contrasts
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Sao Paulo, Brazil
•North – Old and Fragile•South – Young and Poor•South 90% < 25 years old
Jodhpur, India
Rich/poorKnowledgeDigital fracture
•Brain drain/Mobility•Competing Cities
•7,0 billions population•6,2 billions mobiles•5,5 billions radios•4,5 billions tv•2,6 billion computers•0,6 b Facebook
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A World of Contrasts
INTERNATIONAL UNION OF ARCHITECTS
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Jodhpur, India
Rich/poorKnowledgeDigital fracture
Digital fracture
•7,0 billions population•6,2 billions mobiles•5,5 billions radios•4,5 billions tv•2,6 billion computers•0,6 b Facebook
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An Urban World
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The World•2007 : > 50% urban population•Monster or sustainable cities ?• + 3 b people in South Cities by 2050•500 000 slum dwellers /month•Heritage at risk
Sao Paulo, Brazil
An Urban World
Population m•Tokyo 35.2•Jakarta 22,0•Bombay 21,2•Delhi 21,0•Manila 20,8•New York 20,6•Sao Paulo 20,2•Seoul 19,9•Mexico 18,7•Shanghai 18.4•Cairo 17,3
GUP b €•Tokyo 1 191 •New York 1 133•Los Angeles 639•Paris 460•Chicago 460•Londres 452•Osaka-Kobe 341•Mexico 315•Philadelphia 312•Washington 299
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A World of refuge blocks
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RegionalisationOwn values betrayal
•By Language•By Culture•By Trade•By Geopolitics
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A World of Global Issues and Crisis
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Climate ChangeCultural DiversityEconomic CrisisFood crisisLand ownership
CO2 Emissions tons/p•Qatar 48.3•Bahrein 27.0•Emirates 25.9•Koweit 25.7•Luxembourg 23.6
Climate refugeesBangladesh Abandoned city
Texas, USA
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Global Trends
Technology: death of distance ?Technology: death of distance ?Health and PandemiasHealth and PandemiasIncreasing MobilityIncreasing MobilityEnvironment DeclineEnvironment DeclineIdentity v/s GlobalisatioIdentity v/s Globalisation
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Lessons ?
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Succ
ess
= H
appi
ness
Succ
ess
= H
appi
ness
New ModelNew Model•Old Model adjusting ?•End of Era ?•New model of opportunities ?