International trade:What can the G20 do?

Mark ThirlwellDirector, International Economy Program

Two key trade commitments

• Standstill on protectionism

• Complete the Doha Round

The standstill

“We underscore the critical importance of rejecting protectionism and not turning inward in times of financial uncertainty. In this regard, within the next 12 months, we will refrain from raising new barriers to investment or to trade in goods and services, imposing new export restrictions, or implementing World Trade Organization (WTO) inconsistent measures to simulate exports.”

Washington Summit November 2008

The standstill

• At London Summit (April 2009):– Extended until end-2010– WTO+ monitoring on quarterly basis

• At Toronto Summit (June 2010):– Extended until end-2013

• At Seoul Summit (November 2010):– Monitoring moves to semi-annual basis

• At Los Cabos Summit (June 2012):– Extended until end-2014

(mostly) Keeping their promises?

Source: Table 2 in OECD, WTO and UNCTAD, Reports on G20 trade and investment measures ( Mid-May to Mid-October 2012). (2012).

Share of trade covered by import restrictive measures imposed by G20 economies (per cent)

Report date Share in G20 imports Share in world imports Oct’08-Oct’09 1.0 0.8

Nov’09-May’10 0.5 0.4 May’10-Oct’10 0.3 0.2 Oct’10-Apr’11 0.6 0.5 May’11-Oct’11 0.6 0.5 Oct’11-May’12 1.1 0.9 May’12-Oct’12 0.4 0.3

Cumulative total Oct’09-Oct’12 4.4 3.5

Or, do as I say, not as I do?

Source: Global Trade Alert (GTA): Eleventh Report on Protectionism

Doha

“ …we shall strive to reach agreement this year on modalities that leads to a successful conclusion to the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda with an ambitious and balanced outcome. We instruct our Trade Ministers to achieve this objective and stand ready to assist directly, as necessary.”

Washington Summit November 2008

Doha• At London Summit (April 2009):

– Committed to ‘ambitious and balanced conclusion’• At Pittsburgh Summit (September 2009):

– Committed to ‘successful conclusion in 2010’ • At Toronto Summit (June 2010):

– Deliver conclusion ‘as soon as possible’• At Seoul Summit (November 2010)

– ‘2011 is a critical window of opportunity, albeit narrow’• At Cannes Summit (November 2011):

– ‘pursue in 2012 fresh, credible approaches to furthering negotiations’• At Los Cabos Summit (June 2012):

– ‘continue to work towards concluding the Doha Round . . .’

The Doha debacle

Five things G20 could do1. Place international trade at the heart of the Framework, reversing

the drift of trade policy issues down the G20’s agenda

2. Extend the standstill for at least another two years plus an upgrade and enhanced WTO surveillance

3. Save the WTO from the Doha Round: set a hard ‘kill or complete’ deadline post-Bali

4. Encourage the WTO to focus on a new 21st Century trade agenda

5. Build on past G20 calls to strengthen the WTO

International trade:What can the G20 do?

Mark ThirlwellDirector, International Economy Program