International Trade by Commodity Statistics (ITCS) database:

Allocating data from HS 6 digits to HS 2 digits

WPTGS, 16-18 November 2009

Blandine Serve, Eric Gonnard (OECD Statistics Directorate)

Colin Webb (OECD Science, Technology and Industry Directorate)

Agenda Item 4.1 Agenda Item 4.1 Agenda Item 4.1 Agenda Item 4.1

STD/SES/TAGS; 2STD/SES/TAGS; 2ndnd WPTGS Meeting 16.-18.11.2009, Paris WPTGS Meeting 16.-18.11.2009, Paris

Objectives:

• Report about break in series occurring in OECD (ITCS) and UNSD (COMTRADE) annual trade databases

• Explain the causes, the conversion procedures and conversion table

• Propose solutions to improve the quality of long time series in HS

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Outline:

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1. OECD/UN joint database, overview 2. Non conversion of Memorandum Items (MI)3. Break in long time series4. Over use of 999999 codes5. Solution to improve the quality of the database6. Conclusion

1. OECD/UN joint database

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• Cascade of classifications: data received in latest HS classification and converted into historical series at 6-digits

• Aggregation from 6-digits to 2-digits, with a special case, the Memorandum Items

2. Memorandum Items

• Definition of MI: special codes to process as accurately as possible special transactions (confidential items and Eurostat specific codes)

• Member countries submit MI following their own methodology

• MI are harmonised in the OECD/UNSD trade database :– In the reported classification (e.g. in HS 2007), MI are

allocated to the specific chapter where they are belonging to

– In the older classifications, MI are not converted, but generated to the chapter 99 (999999 codes)

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3. Break in HS long time series

• Consequence of the non conversion of MI, an illustration

Graph: United Kingdom – Exports of chapter 88 “Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof”

Note: « 88CF00 » stands for the confidential code contained in chapter 88

3. From a user point of view• In practice, when downloading trade data, users get different values

Chapter 88 exports to the World of the UK tree for the year 2007Querying HS 2007 dataset

Querying HS 2002 dataset

Classification Commodity Value in USD HS 2007 88 12,761,433,532 HS 2007 8804 21,686,192 HS 2007 88CF00 12,739,747,340

Classification Commodity Value in USD HS 2002 88 21,686,192 HS 2002 8804 21,686,192

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4. Inflation of 999999

• Increase of the chapter 99 in HS 2002 vs HS 2007 for 2007 exports: – 27% for OECD total– 94% U.K.– 56% Italy– 18% Germany

• Loss of accuracy and information

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5. Solution: conversion of MI (1/3)

• In HS: convert MI into specific chapters in older classifications rather than generating 999999 codes

– One-to-one conversion:Example: ‘ 01CF00‘ from HS 2007 can be converted to ‘01CF00’ in HS 2002, since every 6-digits codes in Chapter 01 from HS 2007 go to (and only to) Chapter 01 in HS 2002

– Intercrossing issues for one-to-many conversionExample:

From HS 2007

To HS 2002 HS2007 HS 2002

6D 6D 2D 2D

300691 392690 30 39300692 300680 30 30

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5. Solution: conversion of MI (2/3)

From HS2007

To HS2002

To HS2002

30CF00 30CFH3 30

• Number of HS 2007 chapters concerned by intercrossing issues : – 2 when converting into HS 2002– 3 when converting into HS 1996– 5 when converting into HS 1988

• For those cases:

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5. Solution: conversion of MI (3/3)

• Complementary method, when information is available:

1) Convert 6-digits codes and totals on 2-digits

2) Compute by chapter, the Confidential codes as being:

(2-digits total) – Σ(6-digits)

• Conversion into SITC:– No breaks in series– No easy chapter-section correspondance

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6. Conclusion

Conversion of the Memorandum Items for HS classifications• one-to-one for 2-digits • one-to-many: ‘ HSCFH3’ new codes• (2-digits total) – Σ(6-digits) into confidential

items

Non conversion into SITC

Conversion of ICT goods

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Thank you!

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