Technical Support Jim Everse Director, Technical Support April 17, 2007.
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCEINTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL...
Transcript of INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCEINTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL...
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
INTERNATIONAL
TECHNICAL CONFERENCE
ON CLIMATE CHANGE,
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
AND FOOD SECURITY
15 -17 November 2017
FAO Headquarters, Rome Italy
Technological developments
Government programs and insurance
Farm production practices
Farm financial management
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
The Market of Maize in Eastern and Southern
Africa in the Context of Climate Change
Lukas Kornher
Post-Doctoral Researcher/Department of Food Economics and Food Policy,
University of Kiel
17 November 2017
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Indroduction
• Climate change (CC) is expected to have severe consquences on
food security in Eastern and Southern Africa (great importance of
single crop maize)
• The policy environment (national reserves, trade policies, etc.) is
important to address the challenges of CC
• Climate smart agriculture and adaptation measures are necessary
to improve food security and resilience to CC
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
• Reduction of maize yields between
6 and 13% by 2090
• Frequency of extreme weather
events increases probability of
harvest failures
• Additional uncertainty about impact
of CC on land degradation
Food Availability
Chart title
Source: Robertson (2015).
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
• Projected price increases and erosion
of agricultural incomes (yield
reduction) put poor households at risk
• Increasing food market volatility (prices
and production)
• Higher temperature enhances
transmission of vector borne diseases
and put nutrition security under risk
(importance of fish consumption)
Accessibility, stability, utilization
Budget share Income share
Tanzania 15.7% 18.2%
Malawi 20.9% 21.3%
Zambia 15.8% 12.0%
Uganda 6.0% 5.5%
Ethiopia 11.8% 8.5%
Source: Chauvin et al. (2017) based on LSMS data.
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
• Structural trade deficit in the region
which is expected to increase in
future
• Intra-regional market integration
often interrupted by export
restrictions
• Markets characterized by substantial
interventions through price
stabilization programs/ strategic
reserves
Maize market in the region
Population
(2013)
Production
(2013)
Average trade
balance (2010-
2013)
Burundi 9.6 million 162,000 -23,797
Ethiopia 94.9 million 6,500,000 2,747
Kenya 44.8 million 3,600,000 -197,360
Malawi 16.5 million 3,600,000 75,094
Mozambique 26.4 million 1,200,000 -96,157
Rwanda 11.1 million 670,000 -82,665
Somalia 13.1 million 150,000 69,353
Tanzania 50.6 million 5,400,000 11,636
Uganda 37.5 million 2,700,000 106,090
Zambia 15.2 million 2,500,000 359,841
Zimbabwe 15.1 million 860,000 -342,076
Total Region 335 million 27,342,000 -117,294
Source: FAOSTAT (2017).
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Domestic support and price stabilization
• Moderate support can improve food
security (Magrini et al., 2017)
• Interventions set wrong incentives
and keep inefficient producers in the
market
• Market uncertainty through
interventions
• Financial resources are tied and
necessary investments are blocked
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8Nom
inal A
sssis
tance
Coeff
icie
nt
(NA
C)
Annual yield growth in %
Source: MAFAP (2017) and FAOSTAT (2017).
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
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• Regional trade integration could
benefit all countries in the region
• Discretionary export policies
generate market uncertainty, but
limited success in shielding
domestic prices (Portreous, 2017)
• Trade as stimulus for increased
efficiency and competitiveness of
industries (distributional effects)
Trade integration/policies
Source: FAOSTAT (2017).
12.1%
20.3%
13.1%
26.6%
22.1%
60.9%
37.2% 37.3%
20.3%
27.0%
43.7%
9.0%
VARI ABI L I TY I N M AI ZE PRO DUCTI ON ( CO EFFIC IENT O F VARI ATI O N, 2 0 0 0 - 2014)
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Evaluation of current policies in preparation for CC
Food security dimension
Availability Access Stability
Price stabilization program -No guarantee for greater food
availability through higher returns
-Availability may even decline as
market distortions create
inefficiencies
-Reduction of market prices during
crises improves access for
consumers
-General price increase benefits
wealthier households
-Substantial contribution to greater
stability of the food system
Emergency food reserve -Short-term increase of availability in
the market by food distribution
-Subsidized food distribution to the
vulnerable improves market access
-Reduction of instability in emergency
situation
Domestic support -Increase in production driven by
expansion of production but not by
productivity gains
-Improvement in accessibility in the
short-run, but inefficient production
may increase prices in the long-run
-No direct impact
Trade
Policies -Short-term increase of availability
through export restrictions; increasing
unpredictability
-If domestic prices can be insulated
positive, if not no effect
-Stability of domestic markets through
anti-cyclical policies, but negative
externalities; increasing
unpredictability
Integration -Export prospects increase efficiency
and can improve availability
-Net buyers benefit in all countries,
net sellers lose if production gets
unprofitable
-Enhanced price and supply stability
through imports and exports
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Mitigation
• Need to limit GHG emissions
• To what extent do regional
policies help?
Adaptation
• Technological developments
• Government programs and
insurance
• Farm production practices
• Farm financial management
Mitigation and adaptation
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)
• Productivity gains
• Adaptation
• Mitigation
Innovative approaches
• Vertical integration and
commercialization
• Financial services
Market access and development
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Conservation agriculture
• Minimum tillage, permanent
soil cover, and crop rotation
• Productivity gains, soil and
water conservation, mitigation?
• Successful expansion in the
region (Kassam et al., 2015),
but still large potential
Agroforestry
• Intercropping of crops and
trees/shrubs
• Productivity gains, income
diversification, soil and nutrient
conservation, increase of carbon
sequestration through increased
biomass
CSA - Examples
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
• Policy interventions need to be clearly defined/transparent and must
not promote inefficient resource use
• Support for sustainable intensification, promotion of investment in
CSA through tenure security, knowledge diffusion, etc.
• Market development as adaptation strategy
• No one policy will be able to address the varied aspects of CC and
the impacts on food security
Need for a set of complementary policies
Conclusions
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
THANK YOU
For further information please contact Lukas Kornher
or visit (http://www.food-econ.uni-kiel.de/en/food-
economics/team/dr-lukas-kornher)
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
The Market of Maize in Eastern and
Southern Africa in the Context of Climate
Change
Lukas Kornher
Post-Doctoral Researcher/Department of Food Economics and Food Policy,
University of Kiel
17 November 2017