International Study of International Study of Arctic Change Arctic Change

((http://www.iasc.se/isac.htmhttp://www.iasc.se/isac.htm))

Overview and Upcoming Overview and Upcoming ActivitiesActivities

ISAC ISAC ((http://www.iasc.se/isac.htmhttp://www.iasc.se/isac.htm))

► Long termLong term► InternationalInternational► Cross-disciplinary Cross-disciplinary ► Pan-arctic Pan-arctic

► Concerned with Concerned with arctic change due to arctic change due to enhanced enhanced greenhouse greenhouse warming and other warming and other anthropogenic anthropogenic interferences, and interferences, and the effects of the effects of natural variability natural variability on the Arctic systemon the Arctic system

ISAC BackgroundISAC Background► Initiated in 2003 under the umbrella of the International Arctic Initiated in 2003 under the umbrella of the International Arctic

Science Committee (IASC) (Science Committee (IASC) (http://www.iasc.se/about_iasc.htmhttp://www.iasc.se/about_iasc.htm) and ) and the Arctic Ocean Sciences Board (AOSB) (the Arctic Ocean Sciences Board (AOSB) (http://www.aosb.org/http://www.aosb.org/))

► Interim Science Planning Group (ISPG) formed in 2004 Interim Science Planning Group (ISPG) formed in 2004 ► January 2005 the ISPG published the ISAC Science Overview January 2005 the ISPG published the ISAC Science Overview

Document Document scientific rationale scientific rationale the theoretical frameworkthe theoretical framework overarching goalsoverarching goals guiding objectives and hypotheses guiding objectives and hypotheses

► Endorsed as an IPY projectEndorsed as an IPY project► Science Steering Group Science Steering Group

formed 2006formed 2006

Science Steering GroupScience Steering Group

Co-Chairs Michael Tjernström (Sweden)Grete K. Hoverud (Norway)

SSGMonica Tennberg, Social Georgy Cherkashov (Russia), Geo Jean-Claude Gascard (France), Marine

Christian Hass (Germany), Cryo Inga Svala Jonsdottir (Iceland), Terrestrial bio John Walsh (USA), ClimatePaul Wassmann (Norway), Marine bio-systemPeter Schlosser (USA), Circum-ArcticLeif G. Anderson (Sweden), Advisor

ObjectivesObjectives► To take a system approach to expansion of to expansion of

knowledge about the Arctic systemknowledge about the Arctic system► To further document and track arctic changes, To further document and track arctic changes,

understand their causes, nature and understand their causes, nature and connectivitiesconnectivities

► To project changes into the future► To provide the underpinning for an expanded To provide the underpinning for an expanded

knowledge base and lead to improved knowledge base and lead to improved assessments of the impacts of environmental assessments of the impacts of environmental change (including climate change in the Arctic. change (including climate change in the Arctic.

► To study socioeconomic, political, and cultural To study socioeconomic, political, and cultural responses and feedbacks to change in order to responses and feedbacks to change in order to minimize and mitigate negative effects.minimize and mitigate negative effects.

► Based on the Study of Based on the Study of Environmental Arctic Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) initiativeChange (SEARCH) initiative

► ISAC is guided by four ISAC is guided by four principle hypotheses:principle hypotheses: The complex of The complex of

interconnected changes interconnected changes is driven by global is driven by global change but also change but also influenced by regional influenced by regional Arctic feedbacks.Arctic feedbacks.

Amplification of climate signals in high latitudes, Amplification of climate signals in high latitudes, especially in the Arctic, lead to amplitudes of especially in the Arctic, lead to amplitudes of observed changes that are larger than those observed changes that are larger than those observed in lower latitudes.observed in lower latitudes.

The observed changes are expected to continue The observed changes are expected to continue and possibly accelerate in the future.and possibly accelerate in the future.

The observed changes in the Arctic have large The observed changes in the Arctic have large impacts on ecosystems and societiesimpacts on ecosystems and societies

The three cornerstones of ISAC are observing past, present and future arctic changes, understanding their causes and effects, and examining responses on regional to global scales.

Future assessments of the Arctic Future assessments of the Arctic will rely on an increased & will rely on an increased & integrated knowledge of all integrated knowledge of all components, including the human components, including the human domain. domain.

Atmospheric physical system

Atmospheric chemistry

HumanActivities

ClimateChange

GreenhouseGasses

Land Use

WaterSun

ExternalForcing

Volcanoes OceanBiogeochemistry

OceanDynamics

TerrestrialMoisture/Energy

TerrestrialBiogeochemistry

Couplings between the components: Atmosphere – Ocean - Land and People

This requires understanding the behavior of the Arctic system – This requires understanding the behavior of the Arctic system – past, present and future, understanding the role of the Arctic as past, present and future, understanding the role of the Arctic as a component of the global system, and including society as an a component of the global system, and including society as an integral part.integral part.

Program ImplementationProgram Implementation

► Requires a strategic vision for integrating Requires a strategic vision for integrating diverse areas and constituents and diverse areas and constituents and providing focused research on arctic providing focused research on arctic change. change.

►Development of a science plan that guides Development of a science plan that guides decision-making about the kinds of decision-making about the kinds of observations, that are best suited for observations, that are best suited for addressing ISAC scientific hypothesesaddressing ISAC scientific hypotheses

► Basis for science plan is ISAC Science Basis for science plan is ISAC Science Overview DocumentOverview Documenthttp://www.iasc.se/isac/ISAC_SOD.pdfhttp://www.iasc.se/isac/ISAC_SOD.pdf

International Project Office International Project Office (IPO)(IPO)

► ISAC will foster a community of arctic ISAC will foster a community of arctic researchers and research programs that are researchers and research programs that are united in efforts to remove obstacles to united in efforts to remove obstacles to observation, synthesis, modeling, and observation, synthesis, modeling, and understanding. understanding.

► The ISAC IPO should provide such opportunities The ISAC IPO should provide such opportunities for interaction at the pan-arctic level where for interaction at the pan-arctic level where possible through various initiatives possible through various initiatives beginning with the development of the community-beginning with the development of the community-

created science and implementations plans in created science and implementations plans in partnership with the SSG partnership with the SSG

ChallengesChallenges

► Creating scientific & stakeholder partnerships. Creating scientific & stakeholder partnerships. ► Collaboration on issues of data management, Collaboration on issues of data management,

integration, access and availability.integration, access and availability.► Increasingly engaging the scientific community in Increasingly engaging the scientific community in

conveying information to the public, to policy conveying information to the public, to policy makers, to resource managers and other makers, to resource managers and other stakeholders. stakeholders.

► Developing best practices for communicating Developing best practices for communicating scientific information including models results, and scientific information including models results, and predictions (and error ranges) in aid of decision predictions (and error ranges) in aid of decision making Flexibility in decision-making & significant making Flexibility in decision-making & significant community input to the development of research community input to the development of research plans and priorities and to relevant funding and plans and priorities and to relevant funding and government agencies. government agencies.

Challenges and Needs…Challenges and Needs…► Flexibility in decision-making & significant community Flexibility in decision-making & significant community

input to the development of research plans and input to the development of research plans and priorities and to relevant funding and government priorities and to relevant funding and government agencies. agencies.

► Success contingent upon collaborators investing in Success contingent upon collaborators investing in problem definition from the startproblem definition from the start

► Recognition that the processes of observation, modeling Recognition that the processes of observation, modeling & synthesis are subordinate to the common tasks & synthesis are subordinate to the common tasks advancing system-scale knowledgeadvancing system-scale knowledge establishing relevance to societal needsestablishing relevance to societal needs enabling assessment and response. enabling assessment and response.

► Linking to similar programs considering Arctic and Linking to similar programs considering Arctic and Global ChangeGlobal Change

Upcoming ActivitiesUpcoming Activities

► SEARCH SSC MeetingSEARCH SSC MeetingWashington DC 5-7 November 2007Washington DC 5-7 November 2007

► Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON), Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON), Stockholm 12-14 November 07Stockholm 12-14 November 07

► DAMOCLES General AssemblyDAMOCLES General AssemblyNov 27-30 OsloNov 27-30 Oslo

► Arctic Science Summit Week, Syktyvkar, Arctic Science Summit Week, Syktyvkar, March 2008March 2008

Major Tasks in the Coming Major Tasks in the Coming YearYear

► Completion of the ISAC Science Plan Completion of the ISAC Science Plan ► Construction of a web accessible catalogue of ISAC projectsConstruction of a web accessible catalogue of ISAC projects► Transition the IPO to Stockholm where it will be co-located with IASC Transition the IPO to Stockholm where it will be co-located with IASC

at the Swedish Polar Research Secretariatat the Swedish Polar Research Secretariat

Other General ActivitiesOther General Activities► Provide information to other arctic programs Provide information to other arctic programs ► Provide information to other stakeholders Provide information to other stakeholders ► Provide a forum for scientific discussion Provide a forum for scientific discussion

standards or norms; standards or norms; sharing of such information between organizationssharing of such information between organizations Of best practices for communication of scientific informationOf best practices for communication of scientific information

► Foster cooperation and communication among ongoing initiatives and Foster cooperation and communication among ongoing initiatives and activitiesactivities

► Identify data gaps in research and monitoring and foster synthesis Identify data gaps in research and monitoring and foster synthesis ► Ensure appropriate data disseminationEnsure appropriate data dissemination► Engage in capacity buildingEngage in capacity building