International Shipping and Climate Change Michael Sutton A/g Executive Director Infrastructure and...
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Transcript of International Shipping and Climate Change Michael Sutton A/g Executive Director Infrastructure and...
International Shipping and Climate Change
Michael SuttonA/g Executive Director
Infrastructure and Surface Transport Policy
Outline
• UNFCCC framework, role of ICAO and IMO
• Emissions from fuel used for international transport
• International shipping and reduction measures
• IMO work on GHG policy framework
International transport emissions
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
CO
2 em
issi
on
s (M
t) Maritime
Aviation
52.9%
42.5%
Source: International Energy Agency
International process
• National targets under UNFCCC
• Address International bunkers
through ICAO and IMO
• Post Kyoto congruent process
towards end 2009 agreement
• CO2 principal greenhouse gas in
relation to transport
Estimates of global shipping emissions
Study Fuel Consumption MMT
CO2
MMT
IMO 2000 138 (120-147) 419.3
Endresen et. al. 2003 158 501.0
Corbett & Koehler 2003 289 912.0
Eyring et. al. 2005 280 812.63
IMO 2007 study - Informal Cross Government/Industry/scientific group of experts
369 1120
Shipping sector
• World GDP grew by 4.0% while volume of world trade grew by 8.0%
• 60,000 ships in world trade as at January 2007 • Estimated to grow by11% by 2020• Big ships to grow by around 60% over the period• Estimated fuel consumption nearly 500 million tons in 2020,
a one quarter increase in fuel consumption from 2007 figures.
Reduction measures
Three broad categories
– Technical: fuel efficiency measures or alternate fuel and energy source
– Operational: ship/port operational changes for improved efficiency and
fuel savings
– Market based: economic instrument to encourage behavioural change
Technical measures
• Short term energy savings achievable through application of
current technologies
• Potential of technical measures to reduce CO2 emissions
estimated as 5-30% in new ships and 4-20% in existing ships
• HFO quality poor and approaching acceptable critical
specification both environmentally and for engine performance
Operational measures
• Potential of operational measures estimated as 1-40%
• Speed selection alone results in highest reduction of CO2
• 25% reduction in turn around time reduces CO2 by 1-4%
• Reduction in turn around time with speed selection can reduce
CO2 by 14-17%
Market based measures
• Can drive technical and operational changes
• Ship emissions outside national control
• Policy instrument needs to be comprehensive and global
in scope
IMO 2009 GHG study
• Update to GHG 2000 study to inform IMO deliberations on a
global agreement by end 2009
• Phase I to inform on current inventories, future scenarios and
climate impact from CO2 emissions
• MEPC 58 in October to discuss Phase I of the report
• Phase 2 to fully inform on current inventories, future scenarios,
climate impact and reduction potential
GHG: IMO fundamental principles
• Effective in contributing to reduction of total global GHG emissions• Binding and equally applicable to all flag states• Cost effective• Able to limit or effectively minimise competitive distortion• Should not penalise global trade and growth• Goal based approach and not prescribe specific methods• Support technical innovation and R&D in shipping• Accommodate leading technologies in energy efficiency• Practical, transparent, fraud free and easy to administer
IMO timeline• Keep one step ahead of the UNFCCC process
PossibleCO2 Index Science Based Report
Possible Technical and Operational Measures
Jul-09
Possible GHG Reduction Strategy
Nov-09Mar-08 Oct-08 Mar-09Jun-08 Dec-08
GHG Study Phase ICO2 emission inventory
Future emission scenarios
UNFCCCCOP 151-12 Dec 2009
Intersessional MEPC WGConsider GHG Study
MEPC 58Possible Agreement on:- CO2 index
- Technical and operational best practices
Discuss Market Based options
Intersessional MEPC WGCO2 Design and Operational Index
Market Based Measures
Technical and operational Best Practices
MEPC 57Agreement on: - Sulphur content in fuel
- Fundemental principles for GHG regulations
- Timeline to 2009
GHG Study Phase IIGHG other than CO2
Technical, operational and market based options
Intersessional CGDetailed proposals on measures identified
Interim report MEPC 58
Final Report MEPC 59
Intersessional CGInterim report to MEPC 58
MEPC 59Formulation of Market Based Measure/s
Short term deliverable plan and long term work plan
Intersessional CGFinal report to MEPC 59
IMO AssemblyAgreement on GHG reduction strategy
Conclusion
• No easy answers
• Establish baseline, allocate emissions, design CO2 ship index,
develop technical and operational best practices and
formulate market based policy instrument
• Global solution
• Simple, practical and effective
• Does not penalise global trade and growth in shipping industry