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International Seminar on Approaches and Methodologies of Private Stock of Food Grain
Topic: Estimation of Private Stock of Food Grain-Bangladesh Perspective
(Part-I: Situation of Private Stock of Food Grain;
Part-2: Survey on Private Stock of Food Grain
-Considerable Issues)
Bidhan Baral
Joint Director, &
Dipankar Roy, PhD
Joint Director
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
Statistics and Informatics Division
Ministry of Planning
Outline
PART-I: Situation of Private Stock of Food Grain1. Background2. Importance of Food Grain Stock Analysis3. Existing Data System, Limitations4. Annual Production Statistics (rice, wheat and maize)5. Import Scenario of rice and wheat6. Actors in Food Grain Supply Chain7. Pattern of Farm Households8. Stocking Pattern9. Supply and Retention Pattern10. Consumption Pattern of Cereals11. Marketable and Marketed Supply of rice, wheat and maize12. Recommendations
Background
• Bangladesh is self-reliant in producing rice• Both production and demand are high• The government needed to pay attention on
food management for long• The situation has been changed since 2010 and
onward for the persistent higher production offood
• Private stock assessment is necessary for efficientfood management specially export-importdecision making, maintaining buffer stock, and soon
Importance of Food Grain Stock Analysis
• The production of rice is high (34.7 million ton)• Population is more than160 million- high food
demand• Comprehensive data on marketable or marketed
surplus of food grain is needed (to facilitate food balance sheet and food policy and value addition)
• Production of wheat is limited- import dependent• Maize is used only for animal fodder• Ensure food security• Eradication of poverty (SDG Goal)
Existing Data System, Limitations
Existing Data System• Annual production data of BBS as main source• The per capital consumption data of BBS available• Data on retention of food grain collected by HIES, not published• Food Balance Sheet compiled by BBS, an useful source of various
information• The export-import data is of National Board of Revenue or
Bangladesh Bank• Time series data maintained by FPMU, MoFLimitations• No published data on supply-chain of food grain, • The food grain retention data of HIES lacks from receipts of food
grain and the carry-in stock other than production• No available data on food grain use/stock for trade or industry
Annual Production Statistics (rice, wheat and maize)
Food
Grain
Cultivated
Area
(Lac
Hectare)
Production
(Lac ton)
Rice 113.81
(gross)
347.10
Wheat 4.45 13.48
Maize 3.34 24.45
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Rice Wheat Maize
347.1
13.48 24.45
Production (Lac ton)
Production(Lac ton)
• Surplus rice production in the country• Minimum production of wheat• Increasing maize production with no contribution to cereal consumption
Import Scenario of rice and wheatSl Year Rice (Husked) Wheat
Private Public Total Private Public Total
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
01 2006-2007695224 25280 720504 1513691 186294 1699985
02 2007-20081681334 373786 2055120 1234907 176503 1411410
03 2008-2009187265 415304 602569 2029507 395906 2425413
04 2009-201036606 55161 91767 2862543 500738 3363281
05 2010-2011290484 1302172 1592656 2818434 978198 3796632
06 2011-201258695 443458 502153 1181286 582267 1763553
07 2012-201325272 1440 26712 1393403 951497 2344900
08 2013-2014371500 3059 374559 1765162 852857 2618019
09 2014-20161490356 0 1490356 3449992 334008 3784000
10 2015-2016255964 0 255964 3949934 330017 4279951
Actors in Food Grain Supply Chain
Production of
food grains
Household uses Market
(1st Stage)
Market
(Final Stage)
Rice Consumption,
Repayment to land
owner
Seed, waste,
Animal Feed, Sale,
speculated stock
Government,
Trader,
Miller
Government,
Whole seller,
Retailer
Corporate use
Wheat Consumption,
Seed, Animal Feed,
Sale, Repayment
Trader/Miller Whole seller,
Retailer,
Corporate use
(industry)
Maize Sale Trader Corporate use
(animal feed)
Pattern of Farm Households
Farm Holding by Area Size
Total Farm
Holding
Small Medium Large
Marginal Farm
Households (51.75%)
1.00=1.49
acre
1.50-2.49
acre
Total Small
0.05-2.49
2.50-7.49
acre
7.50 +
acre
0.05-0.49
acre
0.50-0.99
acre
15183183
(52.91% of
Total HH)
4247673
(27.97%)
3610131
(23.78%)
2484406
(16.36%)
2470162
(16.27%)
12812372
(84.39%)
2136415
(14.07%)
234396
(1.54%)
Stocking Pattern
PaccaGodowns
KachaGodowns
Tin/Plastic Drams
Bamboo/Cane Basket
Earthen Basket/Jar
Other Containers
Supply and Retention Pattern
Grains Produ
ction
Retentions of Food Grains Stora
ge
Sales
Consu
mp
tion
Given to
land
owner
Paid as
wage
Seed Feed Othe
r
uses
Waste Total
Rice 100% 36.40 8.15 2.05 1.08 0.19 0.64 0.28 48.79 12.00 39.21
Wheat 100% 24.95 4.32 1.79 3.46 0.25 0.36 0.24 35.37 12.51 52.12
Maize 100% 3.07 2.07 0.29 0.02 0.30 0.10 0.06 5.91 0.45 93.64
Consumption Pattern of Cereals
Sl. HIES Proportion
of Rice &
Wheat
(2010)Food Grains 2095-96 2000 2005 2010
1. Rice 464.3 458.5 469.2 416 94%
2. Wheat 33.7 17.2 12.1 26 6%
Marketable and Marketed Supply of rice, wheat and maize
Division
Rice Wheat Maize
Marketable Surplus
Marketed Surplus
Marketable Surplus
Marketed Surplus
Marketable Surplus
Marketed Surplus
Barisal 1164355 891513 15713 12672 2763 2750
Chittagong 2323437 1778987 5673 4575 47944 47714
Dhaka 2318395 1775127 139636 112607 161035 160265
Khulna 2337322 1789619 117660 94885 567836 565120
Mymensing 2122568 1625189 18467 14893 66540 66222
Rajshahi 3101219 2374513 305412 246295 218958 217911
Rangpur 3058984 2342174 267030 215343 1235873 1229962
Sylhet 1348536 1032535 1741 1404 95 95
Bangladesh 17774816 13609657 871332 702674 2301044 2290039
Findings/Recommendations
• Annual stock survey of main food grain is needed
• Individual Stock survey is preferable after harvest is over for more reliable data
• Combination of area and list frame is necessary for Bangladesh
• Import decision should be based on the size of marketed surplus of stock
• Regional food grain supply scenario can be observed though stock analysis
Outline
Part-2: Survey on Private Stock of Food Grain
-Key Issues
1. Sampling Units and Variables
2. Tentative Sampling Scheme
3. Conclusions
Part-2: Survey on Private Stock of Food Grain-Key Issues
SL Sampling Units Main Variable Explanatory
variables
01 Agricultural
Households
Production of grain
Retentions for various
purposes, stock and sales,
Cultivating areas,
storage information
02 Non-agricultural
Households
Purchase of grain
Consumption, sales, stock
Occupation
Income
03 Trader Purchases and Sales volume
and stock
Traders category,
storage capacity
04 Miller Grain milled (volume)
Grain production (volume),
Grain Stock
Milling capacity
05 Industry, Hotel
Restaurant, Catering
Volume and Price of Grain
Purchased and Consumed
Main activities
Sampling Scheme
Sampling Frame: Both list and area frames will be used
Sampling Design:Cluster sampling from HouseholdsSimple Random Sampling for millers
Total number of surveys: 3 (Rice, wheat and maize) + 1 (miller)
Thank You