International Relations Aula 13 Ciencia Politica CGAE FGV-EAESP Kurt von Mettenheim.
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International Relations Aula 13 Ciencia Politica CGAE FGV-EAESP Kurt von Mettenheim
Transcript of International Relations Aula 13 Ciencia Politica CGAE FGV-EAESP Kurt von Mettenheim.
International Relations
Aula 13Ciencia Politica
CGAEFGV-EAESP
Kurt von Mettenheim
Topics
1) Core Theories of International Relationsa) Realism vs Neoliberalismb) International Society/Constructivismc) Bureaucratic Politics
2) International Political Economy19th Century Global Imbalances
20103) Brazilian International Relations4) Questions for Discussion
Core Traditions
Realism: Thucydides, Hobbes, WaltzInternational Politics = Anarchy States Maximize Interests
Liberalism: Wilson, UN, Cooperation via Norms & Institutions Better
Imperialism & World System: Problem = N-S not E-W
Bureaucratic Politics: Foreign Policy NOT Caused by Global Politics, Must Open Black Box
Classics of Realism
Thucydides: The Peloppynisian WarInter-State Equilibrium via WAR
16th-17th Century: Diplomacy/Permanent Army as Bureaucracy and State
19th Century Equilibrium via Diplomacy
20th Century
WWI = end of Multi-Polar Equilibrium via Diplomacy
Woodrow Wilson & League of Nations = Liberalism
1945-1990 Cold War & Bi-Polar World
1990-2001 US Hegemony Stability? Multilateralism, UN / EUTransational Politics – norms &
construction of institutions (NGO´s, Anti-Globalization)
2001 Terror & Democratization
Material From ReadingNew Handbook of Political
Science
• Debate 1) Original "idealism" versus "realism.“
• Debate 2) "scientific" approach versus "traditional" approach.
• Debate 3) “neo-realism“ versus “globalists / pluralists / structuralists / Neo-Marxists / Post-Positivists / interdependence / world society / critical IR Theory”
Kenneth Waltz (Realism) versus "bureaucratic politics," "interdependence" and other subnational and transnational concerns
Realism
Morgenthau (1947) Waltz (1979) :GLOBAL ANARCHY / STATES
State strategy = maximizing interests 3 "Hobbesian" motives:
1) Security; 2) Satisfy Domestic Economic Demands (of politically significant domestic population); 3) Enhance international prestige.
Core ideas of Realism
International system = anarchy & self-help.
No single effective central authority nation-state must protect the economic and security interests of its citizens.
External environment determines policy.Uncertainty fosters "Hobbesian fear“.
Hobbesian Fear
If one state belligerent in an anarchic system, then all potentially affected states must either follow a realpolitik strategy in return or be protected by another state.
States are in a continuous state of preparedness to use force for either offensive or defensive purposes
Government strategy =
1) maximize power (Bull 1977) 2) avoid the development of power
elsewhere (Waltz) 3) avoid relationships in which it is
obliged to play a subordinate role (Galtung 1964)
4) prevent others from making advances in their relative capabilities (Grieco).
Critics of Realism
1) Justifies existing power structure (Peterson 1992);
2) Reifies causality (Ashley 1986); open process can change…
3) Underestimates importance of political discourses (Enloe 1994; Campbell 1992); must justify power legitimacy
4) Underestimates subjective meanings, rules and norms (Hollis and Smith 1990); human behavior set in meaning…
5) “National Interests” too broad, ad hoc concept
Complexity and Post-Realism
Important questions in international relations:
1) How will different factions inside the opposing country react? NEED
EMPIRICAL INFORMATION
2) 2) Will policy strengthen the position of friendly factions in the opposing
country? NEED TWO LEVEL GAME MODEL…
3) Will policy be seen as a precedent or sui generis? MARKETING/PUBLIC
RELATIONS SHAPES PERCEPTIONS
4) How will public opinion in the opposing country react? XENOPHOBIA OR
PEACE?
5) How will domestic public opinion react? XENOPHOBIA OR PEACE?
6) How will the decision-maker's own party react? PRO? CONTRA?
7) Will this option effect third parties?
8) Will policy Desired outcome?
Core Ideas of Neo-Liberalism
The international system is an anarchic, self-help one. The states that comprise it are self-regarding interest-maximizers.
Interdependence mitigates conflict by (a)economic interpenetration in terms of
international trade and financial flows; (b)nation-states' collective interest in avoiding a
major nuclear war; and (c) nation-states' collective interest in avoiding
ecological catastrophe.
Renovação liberal: Joseph Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. 2004
Core Ideas of International Society /
Constructionism
1) Cooperation = Mutual Benefit
2) Norms/Values are basis of “regimes”in Policy Spheres
Human Rights International Trade GATT, WTOMultinational Enterprises, Code of
Conduct“Equator Principles”
for sustainable finance
Third Tradition in Political Science:
Bureaucratic Politics
Realism and Liberalism predict policy from international system...
Must Open Black Box of Government(via Organizational Theory)
Explain Foreign Policy? 1) Agencies? Organizations? Interests? 2) Agenda/actors3) Meetings & decision making
Classic Example: Graham Allison, Essence of DecisionCuban Missile Crisis: Realism / Liberalism wrong...Details of Negotiations =
Organizations/Actors/Process...
International Political Economy
Competing Theories = LiberalismImperialismWorld System, WallersteinDependent Development, Cardoso &
Falleto“Regimes” = Institutions Intl Policy
Sectors
Desenvolvimento e Dependência na América Latina F.H. Cardoso e E.
Falletto
• Crítica ao Liberalismo– Economia: Troca, Cepal...– Sociologia: Tradição - Moderno
• Crítica ao Marxismo– Críse Econômica e Revolução
Sistema Mundial(Immanuel Wallerstein)
ECON Sociedade Política
----------------------------------------------------
1500 – 1750 Mercantil Extração Colônia
1750 – 1914 Troca Oligarquia Imperialismo
1914 – 1945 Ruptura/ISI Cl. Média Pop-Nacional
1945 – 1973 Multi´s/IED Nova Burg. Aut. Bur.
1973+ Global Dividida Pós-Transição
Método Estrutural-Histórico
• Centro e Periferia do Sistema Mundial
• Foca: Economia – Classes Sociais – Grupos Políticos
• Marxismo Metodológico: • Aonde Vem o Dinheiro?• Aonde Vai o Dinheiro?
Seqüência de Desenvolvimento Brasileiro
• Situações Básicas de Desenvolvimento Dependente:
• Enclave• Controle Nacional (Acordo de Taubaté)• ISI e Populismo Nacional• IED e Desenvolvimento Dependente
Século 19 de Polanyi
Quatro Pilares do Sistema Internacional 1815-1914
• 1) Equilíbrio de Poder entre Estados• 2) Padrão Ouro: Câmbio de Moedas• 3) Mercado Auto Regulador• 4) Estado Liberal-Constitucional
(Karl Polanyi, A Grande Transformação...)
Auto-Regulação Impedido, 1879-1929
Pressões para ruptura 1920s
• Desemprego • Tensões entre Classes• Desvalorização de Moedas• Rivalidades Imperialistas
• 1914 começa entre guerras• 1931-1933 acabou padrão ouro
International Political Economy, 1945-2000
• Bretton Woods Institutions 1945IMF, International Monetary FundIBRD, World Bank
• GATT (based on the US Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934).
Without Agriculture• Marshall Plan Aid & European
RecoveryBrazil/Latin America = Private
Investment
The 1960s. ‘Peaceful Coexistence’ and competition
(i) OEEC becomes OECD
(ii) New-style GATT ‘rounds’ beginning with the Kennedy Round 1962-67.
(iii) Weakening of the dollar— The political economy of pegged exchange- rate systems.
(iv) UK fails first attempt to join EEC (1961-63). Gaullism. USSR & E. Europe aping EEC with COMECON (or CMEA).
(v) Liberalisation of capital movements. MNCs and international credit. The Eurocurrency markets. Central-bank co-operation.
Intl. Political Economy: 1970s
(i) Dollar devaluation 1971-73 and the end of the Bretton Woods system (as well as of the first attempt to move to EMU).
(ii) North Atlantic inflation and slower growth, aggravated by
(iii) The oil shocks, especially 1973-74. OPEC
(iv) “the end of the Golden Age” a very North-Atlantic-centred view. Contrast the NICs, especially in E. Asia, as well as Japan.
Diffusion of growth.
Intl. Political Economy: 1980s
(i) The anti-inflation struggle. The second oil shock (1979-80).
(ii) The EMS – attempted restoration of regional pegged rates in Europe.
(iii) The world debt crisis 1982 ff. Paul Volcker and US monetary leadership.
(iv) Development of the new liberalism—Thatcherism and the Washington consensus.
(v) Dénouement in the second half of the decade. Inflation overcome. The oil-price collapse 1986. Partial LDC debt write-offs (Baker & Brady Plans). Recovery of international lending flows, and especially of MNC investment.
(vi) The collapse of Communism. China.
Intl. Political Economy:1990s
NAFTA and Regional Trade Pacts
Washington Consensus: Privatization and Liberalization
Regional Development Accords Regional Development Banks
New Democracies, Post-Transition
2000-2006
Displacement of Political Economy by Security and War : 11 September 2001
Reform of United Nations
GATT / WTO Negotiations
International Order & Rogue Empire
Brazil & International Relations
Western AllianceWWII + Inter-American Treaties
International OrganizationsUNWTOFTAA
Política Externa Brasileira
1) Plataforma Global de Comércio: Escala de Mercado, Posição América do Sul, Alternativa à China/Índia
2) Integração Regional, Mercosul >
3) Agenda de paises emergentes e em desenvolvimento em organizações internacionais (ONU, OMC, OMT, GATT)
4) Histórico de Aliança Hemisférica com EUA Sul-Sul, BRIC…
Política Externa Brasileira
5) Princípio de Não Intervenção e resolução pacífica
6) Procura de nova liderança internacional* Irã, Haiti, Conselho de Segurança * Escalada Militar, America Latina
http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/
Questions
Which theory do you think makes the most reasonable assumptions about 21st Century world politics?Realism? Liberalism? Constructionism/International Society?
Qual é a teoria que mais descreve a política exterior brasileira? Liberalismo, Realismo, política burocrática, imperialismo?
Explore International Relations
University of Michigan Political Science Resources:http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/psintl.html
http://www.etown.edu/vl/index.html (Virtual Library of International Affairs Resources)
http://www.un.org/ (UN homepage)
http://www.nato.int/ (NATO homepage)
http://www.ifrc.org/home.htm (Red Cross homepage)
http://www.iiss.org (International Institute for Strategic Studies)
http://www.csis.org/ (Centre for Strategic and International Studies)
http://europa.eu.int/index-en.htm (Europa, the European Union's server)
Journals
International Organization; International Affairs; World Politics; The World Economy; International Studies Quarterly; The Journal of World Trade; The Journal of Common Market Studies; The Journal of European Public Policy; American Political Science Review; Review of International Political Economy; Journal of Economic Perspectives; World Development.
