International migration trends: New data, new perspectives session 2... · International migration...
Transcript of International migration trends: New data, new perspectives session 2... · International migration...
International migration trends:
New data, new perspectives
Hania Zlotnik
There have been important advances in
estimating the migrant stock
1. UN Population Division:
Estimates of the foreign-born population in receiving
countries by sex (2008 Revision)
2. World Bank:
Estimates of the foreign-born population by sex, country of
origin and destination (2011)
Estimates of the foreign-born population
Set Countries Dates
UNPD 2008
Destination
(include
refugees)
1960, 1965, 1970,
1975….2010
WB 2011
Origin and
destination
(exclude
refugees)
1960, 1970, 1980,
1990, 2000
Global estimates of international migration
flows can be derived from the migrant stock
FB = foreign-born
DFB = deaths of foreign-born
IFB = immigrating foreign-born
EFB = emigrating foreign-born
FB(2) = FB(1) – DFB + IFB - EFB hence
Net migration FB = IFB – EFB = FB(2) – FB(1) + DFB
Mortality estimates for the country of
destination are used to calculate DFB
For each country, WPP 2010 produces the deaths and the population over five-year intervals.
Crude death rates by sex and five-year period can therefore be calculated.
Assumption: The foreign-born generally have a lower death rate.
In developed countries: 0.75*CDR
In developing countries: 0.80*CDR
In CIS (former USSR): CDR
Global net migration of foreign-born derived with
adjustment for deaths compared with difference in
stock over time
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1960-
1965
1965-
1970
1970-
1975
1975-
1980
1980-
1985
1985-
1990
1990-
1995
1995-
2000
2000-
2005
2005-
2010
Mil
lion
s
Difference Adjusted with deaths
Estimating the flows of foreign-born
Set Type Periods
UNPD 2008 Net migration of
foreign-born to
country of
destination
Five-year
periods from
1960-1965 to
2005-2010
WB 2011 Net migration of
foreign-born by
origin and
destination
Ten-year periods
from
1960-1970 to
1990- 2000
The flow estimates derived from the UN set
are incomplete
The flow estimate over a period t is
f(t) = IFB(t) – EFB(t)
but the overall net migration of a country is
NM(t) = I(t) – E(t) = IFB(t) – EFB(t) – EN(t) + RN(t)
WB 2011: Net flows of foreign-born by origin and
destination
1960-1970
Origin
Destination C1 C2 C3 …
C1 f21(t2) f31(t3) …
C2 f12(t1) f32(t2) …
C3 f13(t1) f23(t1) …
…
The WB set permits estimating the full
migration flows
For each country of destination, summing the ROW of estimates produces
fc(t) = IFBc(t) – EFBc(t) = Σ fcj(t)
j
and for the same country c, when acting as country of origin, the sum of all COLUMN estimates produces
nc(t) = EN(t) - IN(t) = Σ fic(t)
i
Hence, NMc(t) = fc(t) - nc(t)
RESULTS
Note that all net migration
estimates presented are in
millions
The regions considered
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
USSR
Latin America and the Caribbean
Net migration of the
FOREIGN-BORN
Net migration of foreign-born (UNPD 2008)
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1960
-196
5
1965
-197
0
1970
-197
5
1975
-198
0
1980
-198
5
1985
-199
0
1990
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
5
2005
-201
0
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania USSR Latin America and Caribbean
Percentage female among net number of
foreign-born migrants (UNPD 2008)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
No
rth
ern
Am
eri
ca
Eu
rop
e
As
ia
Afr
ica
Oc
ea
nia
US
SR
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
an
d
Ca
rib
be
an
1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985
1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010
Percentage female among net number of
foreign-born migrants, world (UNPD 2008)
47.452.4
49.151.7
47.7
41.143.2
43.844.845.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960
-196
5
1965
-197
0
1970
-197
5
1975
-198
0
1980
-198
5
1985
-199
0
1990
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
5
2005
-201
0
Net migration of foreign-born (WB 2011)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania Latin America and Caribbean
Net migration of foreign-born
(WB 2011 and UNPD compared)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
WB Northern America Northern America WB EuropeEurope WB Asia AsiaWB Africa Africa WB OceaniaOceania WB Latin America and Caribbean Latin America and Caribbean
Net migration of
NATIVES
Net migration of native males (WB 2011)
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania Latin America and the Caribbean
Net migration of native females (WB 2011)
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania Latin America and the Caribbean
Overall Net Migration
Net migration, both sexes (WB 2011)
-8.0
-3.0
2.0
7.0
12.0
17.0
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania USSR Latin America and the Caribbean
Net migration of natives of the
different regions
Net migration of natives of Africa (WB 2011)
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania USSR LAC
Net migration of natives of Asia (WB 2011)
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania USSR LAC
Net migration of natives of Latin America and the
Caribbean (WB 2011)
-10.0
-9.0
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania USSR LAC
Net migration of natives of Northern America
(WB 2011)
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania USSR LAC
Net migration of natives of Oceania (WB 2011)
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania USSR LAC
Net migration of natives of Europe (WB 2011)
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania USSR LAC
Net migration of natives of the USSR (WB 2011)
-8.00
-7.00
-6.00
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Northern America Europe Asia Africa Oceania USSR LAC
Conclusion
The estimates of bilateral flows seem generally consistent with what is known about historical trends
They unveil some of the complexity and volatility of migration flows and open the possibility of modeling such flows in relation to other factors