International IT Project Management 2.211.ppt ... · IT processes (e.g. best practices in an IT...

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International IT Project Management by Carlo Selwat Release 2.0 WS 2009 Status: Oct15th 2009 Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 1 S : Oc 5 009

Transcript of International IT Project Management 2.211.ppt ... · IT processes (e.g. best practices in an IT...

International IT Project Management

by Carlo Selwat

Release 2.0 WS 2009

Status: Oct 15th 2009

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 1

S : Oc 5 009

Table of Contents

Introduction

Project Overview and Framework

1.

2 Project Overview and Framework

Generic Project Management

2.

3.

IT Project Management4.

International IT Project Management5.

Appendix & Back up slides

6.

7.

Case Study: Global ERP implementation

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 2

Appendix & Back up slides7.

Table of Contents

1 1 Course logistics

Introduction1.

1.1 Course logistics

1.2 The warm-up

1 3 Ab t C l S l t1.3 About Carlo Selwat

1.4 About Deutsche Telekom AG

1.5 Knowledge gaps of IT applicants

1.6 Deliverables of Course

1.7 Why projects fail

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 3

1.2 The warm-up

International IT Project Management

2. Brief introduction by participants:

Wh ?

1. Brief announcement by instructor:

C t b f t d t b Who are you?

What do you study?

Why did you choose this course?

Count number of students by fields of study

Expectations of the instructor: Why did you choose this course?

What do you expect to learn?

Are you experienced in

pmainly interactive class!

Later: Summary of participant’s introduction Are you experienced in

International-

IT-

introduction

Regular attendance required Project Management?

g q

Student’s active participation in classroom will be positively rewarded through better

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 4

rewarded through better individual grade

1.3 About Carlo Selwat

Dipl. Ing. Industrial Engineering TUB, Technical Chemistry Baumgarten, Schulze, Reichert, Krallmann, Blohm, Serfling Final exam April 1991 Robert Bosch GmbH / Bosch Telecom GmbH

07/91 – 07/94 Business Analyst Supply Chain07/94 – 01/95 Supply Chain integration Project02/95 – 04/96 Integration of subsidiaries05/96 – 04/97 Various projects, sales controlling, SAP project repp j , g, p j p05/97 – 06/98 Manager distribution logistics

Motorola GmbH09/97 – 04/98 Project Manager Bosch / Motorola IT integration05/98 – 01/01 IT manager Berlin05/98 01/01 IT manager Berlin 08/00 – 06/01 CGISS EMEA Infrastructure manager02/01 – 08/01 CGISS EMEA IT manager direct business09/01 – 09/03 CGISS EMEA IT Director01/03 – 11/03 Program manager CGISS global Oracle 11i MFG10/03 – CGISS International IT Director (ASIA / EMEA)10/03 CGISS International IT Director (ASIA / EMEA)2004 / 2005 Program manager for further regional ERP roll outs2005 / 2006 Program manager for project driven business redesign2006 – 2007 N&E IT Director Manage & Enable2007 – 2008 Senior IT Director Build

D t h T l k AG Deutsche Telekom AG2008 SVP Portfolio, Strategy and Quality

T-Systems International GmbH2009 Executive Project Manager

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 5

1.4 About DTAG

Veränderung zum in Mrd. € Vorjahr in % a 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Umsatz und Ergebnis Umsatzerlöse (1,4) 61,7 62,5 61,3 59,6 57,3 davon: Inlandsanteil (in %) (2,3) 46,8 49,1 52,9 57,4 60,6 davon: Auslandsanteil (in %) 2,3 53,2 50,9 47,1 42,6 39,4 Betriebsergebnis (EBIT) 33,2 7,0 5,3 5,3 7,6 6,3

Personalbestandsentwicklung.

Mitarbeiter im Konzern, jeweils zum 31.12. 2008 2007 2006 Gesamt 227 747 241 426 248 800 davon: Deutsche Telekom AG 44 645 51 863 92 575 Mobilfunk 67 588 66 054 60 429

Konzernüberschuss/(-fehlbetrag) n. a. 1,5 0,6 3,2 5,6 1,6 Konzernüberschuss/(-fehlbetrag) (bereinigt um Sondereinflüsse) 14,0 3,4 3,0 3,9 4,7 3,7

EBITDA a, b, c 6,6 18,0 16,9 16,3 20,1 19,4 EBITDA (bereinigt um Sondereinflüsse) a, b, c 0,7 19,5 19,3 19,4 20,7 19,6

EBITDA-Marge (bereinigt um Sondereinflüsse) (in %) a 0,7 31,6 30,9 31,7 34,8 34,2 Bilanz Bilanzsumme 2,0 123,1 120,7 130,2 128,5 125,5

Mobilfunk 67 588 66 054 60 429 davon: Mobilfunk Europa 29 557 32 304 29 937 davon: Mobilfunk USA 38 031 33 750 30 492 Breitband/Festnetz 89 783 93 486 101 594 Geschäftskunden 51 692 56 516 57 538 Konzernzentrale & Shared Services 18 684 25 370 29 239

Geografische Verteilung Deutschland 131 713 148 938 159 992 International 96 034 92 488 88 808

Eigenkapital (4,7) 43,1 45,2 49,7 48,6 45,5

Eigenkapitalquote (in %) a, d (2,4) 32,3 34,7 35,8 35,5 34,2 Finanzielle Verbindlichkeiten (gemäß Konzern-Bilanz) 8,6 46,6 42,9 46,5 46,7 51,1

Netto-Finanzverbindlichkeiten a, c 2,5 38,2 37,2 39,6 38,6 39,9 Anlagenzugänge zu immateriellen Vermögenswerten(einschließlich Goodwill) und Sachanlagen 11,5 10,1 9,1 13,4 11,1 6,6 Cash-Flow

davon: Übrige EU 45 115 45 709 45 144 davon: Europa außerhalb EU 7 908 8 179 9 014 davon: Nordamerika 38 621 34 297 31 049 davon: Restliche Welt 4 390 4 303 3 601

Produktivitätsentwicklung Konzernumsatz je Mitarbeiter (in Tsd. €) 263 257 247

Cash-Flow aus Geschäftstätigkeit e 12,1 15,4 13,7 14,2 15,1 16,7 Auszahlungen für Investitionen in immaterielle Vermögenswerte(ohne Goodwill) und Sachanlagen (gemäß Kapitalflussrechnung) (8,6) (8,7) (8,0) (11,8) (9,3) (6,4) Einzahlungen aus Abgängen von immateriellen Vermögenswerten (ohne Goodwill) und Sachanlagen (gemäß Kapitalflussrechnung) (51,1) 0,4 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,6 Free Cash-Flow (vor Ausschüttung) a, c, f, g 6,9 7,0 6,6 3,0 6,2 10,9

Free Cash-Flow in Prozent zum Umsatz a 0,9 11,4 10,5 4,9 10,3 18,9

Cash Flow aus Investitionstätigkeit e (41 3) (11 4) (8 1) (14 3) (10 1) (4 5)Cash-Flow aus Investitionstätigkeit (41,3) (11,4) (8,1) (14,3) (10,1) (4,5) Cash-Flow aus Finanzierungstätigkeit 49,4 (3,1) (6,1) (2,1) (8,0) (12,9) Mitarbeiter Anzahl der Beschäftigten im Jahresdurchschnitt (Vollzeitkräfte ohne Auszubildende) (in Tsd.) (3,6) 235 244 248 244 248 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter (in Tsd. €) a 2,4 262,5 256,5 246,9 244,3 231,7 Kennzahlen zur T-Aktie Ergebnis je Aktie/ADS (unverwässert und verwässert) nach IFRS (in €) h n. a. 0,34 0,13 0,74 1,31 0,39 g j ( ) ( ) a 0,3 , , , ,Gewichtete durchschnittliche Anzahl der ausstehenden Stammaktien (unverwässert)(in Mio. Stück) h, i 0,0 4 340 4 339 4 353 4 335 4 323 Gewichtete durchschnittliche Anzahl der ausstehenden Stammaktien (verwässert)(in Mio. Stück) h, i 0,0 4 340 4 340 4 354 4 338 4 328

Dividende je Aktie/ADS (in €) 0,0 0,78 j 0,78 0,72 0,72 0,62 k

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 6

Dividendenrendite (in %) k 2,1 7,3 5,2 5,2 5,1 3,7 Ausschüttungssumme (in Mrd. €) 0,0 3,4 j 3,4 3,1 3,0 2,6 Anzahl der dividendenberechtigten Stammaktien (in Mio. Stück)l 0,0 4 341 m 4 340 4 339 4 174 4 171 Gesamtanzahl der Stammaktien zum Stichtag (in Mio. Stück) n 0,0 4 361 4 361 4 361 4 198 4 198

1.5 Knowledge gaps of IT applicants (I)

IT applicants might know programming language(s) or IT technology in specific g g ( ) gy pareas but quite often have learning opportunities in the following fields:

Generic business processes (e.g. logistics, finance, distribution…), interaction with ERP

Standard business process models (e.g. SCOR)

Systems analysis techniques (e.g. business process Systems analysis techniques (e.g. business process mapping)

Software engineering methods and principles (e.g. SEI g g p p ( gCMMI)

Quality management principles (e.g. ISO 9000)

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 7

y g p p ( g )

1.5 Knowledge gaps of IT applicants (II)

IT applicants might know programming language(s) or IT technology in specific g g ( ) gy pareas but quite often have learning opportunities in the following fields:

Project & Program Management and related processes

IT support in a living business IT support in a living business

IT processes (e.g. best practices in an IT organization, ISO17799, ITIL, CobiT…)ISO17799, ITIL, CobiT…)

International business conditions, complexities and prioritiesp

Understanding of cultural differences and diversity

Understanding the social dimension of IT

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 8

Understanding the social dimension of IT

1.6 Deliverables of course

Overview: Basics of IT project management

Experience based insights rather than completeness of theorytheory

Understanding of real life issues in IT project management

U d t di f th dditi l h ll f I t ti l IT Understanding of the additional challenges of International IT projects

Address identified knowledge gaps and provide overview in Address identified knowledge gaps and provide overview in IT PM related areas as well such as software engineering standards and program management.

Prioritized detailed insights for most important areas

What to avoid in IT projects?

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 9

Voluntary drill downs as homework

1.7 Reasons for project failure

Equipment People

H/W ResourcesM t

ExecutivesProject Requestors

Skills Analysis

No proper handling of instance plan

InsufficientCultural & semantical differences

Mangement

Program MangerProject MangerProject

Management Culture

Skills Analysis

Training

Belated startSkills

No proper handling of infrastructure support

Superficial data conversion tests

No tracking toolsUnderstanding political landscape

Why projects fail

Team Members

Inappropiate Staffing

Poor Quality Work

Believing in magic (COTS)

InfrastructureRequirements analysis

S/W

No stress testInsufficient testing strategy

g

Why projects fail

External

Business changes

Project Start

No proper definition

Missing process orientation

Feasibility

Scope creep

Alignment with overall strategies, roadmaps, standards

Strategy changes

Bad planning ofPM-Orga/ Time/ Cost/ HR/...

No inital buy inInvestigation

Reuse

Preparations for maintainance phaseChange

Mangagement

eas b ty

Alternatives

Steeringrules

GenericPlanning

MethodEnvironment

Quality Management

Quality GatesQuality Assurance

Generic Management

Controlling

Finance

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 10

MethodEnvironment

http://209.85.135.132/search?q=cache:thUqP-rv5ToJ:class.et.byu.edu/mfg340/lessons/seventools/index.html+7+tools+of+quality&cd=2&hl=de&ct=clnk&gl=deEquipment, Management, Environment, People, Process, Materialshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Tools_of_Quality

1.7 Why projects fail – Overview

According to Watts S. HumphreyInternal / External

Why Projects Fail!

Managerial reasons Technical reasons

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 11

1.7 Why projects fail / 1

Internal reasons: External reasons:1. Executives2. Project requestors

1. Business changes2. Strategy changes2. Project requestors

3. Program managers4. Project managers

2. Strategy changes

4. Project managers5. Team members6. Missing processes or6. Missing processes or

project management culture

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 12

1.7 Why projects fail / 2

1 Unrealistic schedules1. Unrealistic schedules

2. Inappropriate staffing

3. Changing requirements

According to Watts S Humphrey (1)

4. Poor quality work

According to Watts S. Humphrey (1)

5. Believing in magic

6 The executive role P j t i k6. The executive role

(1) “Wi i ith S ft ” 17 27 27 t IBM i d 4000 / i th

Project risk mgmt

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 13

(1) “Winning with Software” pg 17 – 27; 27 years at IBM, supervised 4000 s/w engineers, then joined the Software Engineering Institute (SEI) to participate in the development of Capability maturity model (CMM), then developed additional methods to overcome CMM shortfalls.

1.7 Why projects fail / 2

1. Unrealistic schedules

“A crash effort to meet a seemingly impossible schedule is

often a total loss”

“You might think that pushing for an aggressive schedule wouldYou might think that pushing for an aggressive schedule would

accelerate the work but it actually delays it. When faced with an

unrealistic schedule engineering teams often behave irrationallyunrealistic schedule, engineering teams often behave irrationally.

They race through the requirements, produce a superficial design,

d h i t di ”and rush into coding.”

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 14

1.7 Why projects fail / 2

2. Inappropriate staffing

“The only way to complete an engineering project rapidly

and efficiently is to assign an adequate number of people y g q p p

and then protect them from interruptions and distractions”

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 15

1.7 Why projects fail / 2

3. Changing requirements

“Unfortunately, management, marketing, and even customers often

don‘t know what they want. What is often worse, they think they knowy , y y

and then change their minds partway through the job”

“Requirements changes are never easy, and committing to such

changes without a detailed plan to do the work is always a mistakechanges without a detailed plan to do the work is always a mistake.

Even more important, the engineers who will do the work must make

th l d ith th lti h d l ”the plan and agree with the resulting schedule.”

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 16

1.7 Why projects fail / 2

4. Poor quality work

“When executives push for unrealistic schedules, the project

either will be late in delivering a working product or will g g p

produce a product that does not work”

“There is a saying about software quality:

If it doesn‘t have to work we can build it really fast”If it doesn t have to work, we can build it really fast

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 17

1.7 Why projects fail / 2

5. Believing in magic

“COTS (commercial-off-the-shelf software), is an attractive way tosave development time and money. … however, COTS is not a silver bullet. If not properly managed, it can be a disaster.”

“…it generally costs as much to test and fix a defective product…it generally costs as much to test and fix a defective productas it took to develop it in the first place”

“Everyone would like to start with a quality product, but you cannot simply look at a program to determine is quality. You must test it,and test it thoroughly enough to expose previously untested conditions”

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 18

1.7 Why projects fail / 2

6. The executive role in project failure

“While the CEO had not intended to set an unreasonable date, he knew that relaxed goals get relaxed results. He believed energeticwork came only from aggressive goals. This is a common executiveattitude, but it is too simplistic.”

“When your engineers tell you that a schedule is impossible, itprobably is”

“The cost of poor quality is rarely visible until the end of the project”

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 19

“The cost of poor quality continue for a very long time”

And more…

http://www.it-cortex.com/Stat_Failure_Rate.htm

http://ftp.uni-kl.de/pub/v-modell-xt/Release-1.1/Schulungsmaterial/VM-E/2_Motivation.pdf

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 20

Table of Contents

Introduction

Project Overview and Framework

1.

2 Project Overview and Framework

Generic Project Management

2.

3.

IT Project Management4.

International IT project management5.

Case Study: Global ERP implementation

Appendix & Back up slides

6.

7

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 21

Appendix & Back up slides7.

O iOverviewOverview

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 22

Table of Contents

2 1 Definition

Project Overview and Framework2.

2.1 Definition

2.2 Project management process view

2 3 P j t t i ti2.3 Project management organization

2.3 Project framework

2.4 Project typology

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 23

2.1 Definition (I)

Project definition:*

A unique process …1

Project definition:*

with start and finish dates …3

consisting of a set of coordinated and controlled activities …2

undertaken to achieve an objective …4

with start and finish dates …3

conforming to specific requirements …5

including the constraints of time, cost and resources.6 g

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 24* per ISO 10006:2003 (pg 2)

Task vs. project: Usually a project consists of a series of tasks or activities which are summarized in WBS

2.1 Definition (II)

One time effort Defined start and end date Complex Dedicated project organization Resource competition

Project

Mainly driven by business change or process automation

Resource competition Cross functional

Mainly driven by business change or process automation But usually highly depending on information technology project

processes and knowledge Last but not least information technology itselfIT-Project

Adding physical distance, different time zones More diverse interests loss of control More diverse interests, loss of control Cultural, lingual differences and different working styles Remote management and compensation schemata

International IT-Project

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 25

2.2 Project Management Process View

Projects follow processes as well

Processes can be defined,

documented,

trained and

repeatedly applied.

! Don’t invent the wheel twice !! Don t invent the wheel twice !

In absence of a common approach tools and process package of IT project management:of IT project management:all the project processes and tools have to be invented for each project again and again.

But:

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 26

Project processes and tools usually exist always somewhere.

2.1 Project management standards

Standard Go to slide

Status Range Purpose Link

PMBOK Guide 2000 gloobal - Promote the profession - Basis for certifivation, categorization, meta-data for PM/ products/ services/... - overall refrence

ISO 10006 2003 gloobal - Guidelines to quality in project management ISO

PMIpush

ISO 10006 2003 gloobal Guidelines to quality in project management - Definition of terms and processes

BS 6079 2002 national - Guidance for relative newcomers to project management - Full range of project management procedures (Planning, execution of projects) - The application of project management techniques.

DIN 69900 T1 &T2 1987-8 national - Definition of terms and processes (still relevant today)

ISO

BSI

DIN 69900 T1 &T2 1987 8 national Definition of terms and processes (still relevant today) - Critical Path Analysis

APM Bok Body of knowledge (5th ed.)

2006 regional - Terms and definition, Best practice

PM-Zert 2006 regional - Certification of project management staff (Germany)VZPM-Zert 2006 regional - Certification of project management staff (Switzerland)

DIN

APM

GPMSGOVZPM Zert 2006 regional Certification of project management staff (Switzerland)

ICB-IPMA Competence Baseline (2.0)

2006 regional - International approach for certification

Prince 2 2005 semi-global - structured method for all kind of project - process orientation

Australian National PM 2006 regional - to promote profession of PM

SGOIMPA.ch

AIPM

OGC-Prince2

Australian National PM Competency Standards

g p p - evaluation through certification

SEI Capability Maturity Level

2006 semi global - For assesment of organizational capability- SW development, SW Engineering

ANSI/EIA-748-A-1998 R 2002 national - Earned Value Management

AIPM

SEI

ANSIANSI (2)

push

push

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 27

y p , g gIT Infrastructure Library 2006 national - Maintainance of IT Infrastructure

See also http://www.aipm.com/globalstandards

OGC ITILpush

2.2 Processes involved in Project Management

Portfolio Management (planning / releasing resources)Portfolio Management (planning / releasing resources)

M lti P j t M t ( ti l ti f tf li )M lti P j t M t ( ti l ti f tf li )

PortfolioLevel

Framew

o

Multi Project Management (operational execution of portfolio)Multi Project Management (operational execution of portfolio)

ork

Project Management Processes (organizing the work)Project Management Processes (organizing the work)

PM

Project Product creation processes (depending on product)Project Product creation processes (depending on product)

Project Management Processes (organizing the work)Project Management Processes (organizing the work)Project Level

MIT

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 28

2.3 IT Project framework

IT projects do not occur ‚stand alone’ E b dd d i i i li i hi Embedded in organization, politics, history

Existing application landscape, ongoing programs

B i i t ff d bilit di i t t d t t Business requirements, affordability, diverse interests and targets

Support vs. new functionality,

Resources and skills etc Resources and skills, etc.

Environmental scan Environmental scan

Assessment of interests

P t Program management

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 29

2.3 Project Framwork

Project usually is part of an organization that is larger

Business world

Companyg gthan the project itself

Though integration required ( t l j t )

CompanyPortfolio

Program(even external projects) Projects

P1P2 P3P4

P1 P..

T t j t tTo promote project management competency and authority a Project Management Office can be installed:

From advisory influence or recommendation to a formal grant of authority

Often administrative functions, delegation of

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 30

, gcompetence to project managers,…

2.3 Project framework: Overall Planning Process

1 2 3 Th h l t i t t d

prioritization, agree on structure and contentStrategy

1Define Strategy

Derive LRP

1 2 3 Through long term orientated planning the portfolio management ensures the availability of resources for every single project

2 LRP

str

roadmaps/apps

ToolsSkillsResourceH/W

BOD / ISCM 3 Feasibility checks1

ategic

12 – 36 months

BudgetForecast Capital Plan

ToolsRoadmap

SkillsPlan

ResourcePlan

H/WPlan

4 Year on Year

tacProject PortfolioScore CardsBusinessVolume BOD / ISCM Resource Tracking

7 Feedback LoopSupply / Feasibility

2 3

tical

priorities 06 – 12 months

Capital /Budget Plans

operatiday to day 6 months

MBRMaintenance

Projects

Issues

Workorders

Security

5 6Counterstream

Tactical / OperationalResourcing decisions

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 31

ional

day to day – 6 monthsy

Process ImprovProgramme Mgt

Admin

General Mgt

CounterstreamPlanning

2.3 Project framework: Roadmaps1 2 3

SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT(LONG CYCLE)

2003 2004¦IT Owner

¦ 2005

Data Owner

¦ ¦1 2 3

XYZ Robert N. MarleyXYZ / SYSTEMS 3000 Angus Young

ORDER ENTRY

MANUFACTURING

eBiz Carlo SelwatPhase 2 and others

ORDER FULLFILLMENT MFG

Desmond Dekker

MANUFACTURINGJamaica

10.7 > 11iJoseph HaydenOM (ORACLE 10.7) OM (Jamaica Oracle 11i)

Shop Floor Control10.7 > 11i Prince BusterSFC (ORACLE 10.7) SFC (Jamaica Oracle 11i)

Wolfgang Amadeus

Björn v. Abba

Shipping documentation10.7 > 11i Don CarlosADAM (ORACLE 10.7) ADAM (Jamaica Oracle 11i)

Pick pack ship10.7 > 11i Rigel OttoPPS (ORACLE 10.7) PPS (Jamaica Oracle 11i)

Papa Geno

Paul McCartneyWMS

VCR L ld MVCR MAN (ORACLE 10 7) Oracle WW VCR 11i Cl di M t di

Current or WIP Strategy Concept Review

VCR Leopold MoVCR MAN (ORACLE 10.7) Claudio Monteverdi

Africa Productions Bon ScottCopy of Jamaica Oracle 11i Malcolm Young

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 32

Current or WIP Strategy Concept Review

2.3 Project framework: Scorecards

1 2 3

Strategies &Objectives

Current-YearInitiatives

STRATEGIC DIRECTION PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

Business Processes Business ResultsStrategies &Objectives

Current-YearInitiatives

STRATEGIC DIRECTION PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

Business Processes Business Results

1 2 3

Objectives InitiativesVision: MAKE OR BREAK

BREAKAWAY

Mission:

Leadership FinancialObjectives Initiatives

Vision: MAKE OR BREAK BREAKAWAY

Mission:

Leadership Financial

Strategic Planning

Customer & Mkt FocusCustomer / Consumer

ll

CUSTOMER

Strategic Planning

Customer & Mkt FocusCustomer / Consumer

ll

CUSTOMER

Partner/Supplier/Operations

CUSTOMERPEOPLEOPERATIONSFINANCIAL

Partner/Supplier/OperationsPartner/Supplier/Operations

CUSTOMERPEOPLEOPERATIONSFINANCIAL

Human ResourcesInformation/Analysis Human ResourcesHuman ResourcesInformation/AnalysisInformation/AnalysisInformation/Analysis

Human ResourcesSpecific

Human ResourcesSpecific

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 33

ll

2.3 Project framework: Portfolio management

1 2 3 E g Funnel of innovation:1 2 3

Corporate strategy Customer’s wishes

E.g. Funnel of innovation:

Number of innovations

Ideas (Input)

Business objectives

Cost of innovation

Low financial

risk

High Financial risk

75%

100%

25%

50%

75%

Time

L h

Evaluation & selection

D l t

Preparation for production

G ti

Search area & projects

25%

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 34

LaunchDevelopment of Product/

Generation of ideas

Source: Prof. Lindemann, TU München; VL Entwicklungsmanagement, 2005

2.3 IT Project framework: Program management

1 2 3

Program Management:

1 2 3

‚A program is a group of projects managed in a coordinated way to obtain benefits not available from managing them individually‘ (Source: 1. PMBOK, pg 10)

P bl 1 C f ti l t t i th i t i Problem 1: Cross functional support groups to give their customers one view on demand against supply.

Problem 2: Fixed resource pool (supply) and semi-fix skills set (shortterm) vs always increasing demand.y g

Solution: Opportunities funnel and prioritization, rough cut capacity plan. Tactical resource planning and skills alignment / management / assignment

in more detail behind the rccp. Tools are existing to plan and assign skills ‚to be‘ Time tracking tools to measure ‚as is‘ consumption Similar concept for cost planning (capital plan budgets etc ) Similar concept for cost planning (capital plan, budgets etc.)

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 35

2.4 Project Typology

Corporate, Sector, Region, Site,

DurationMake / Buy /

Mixture

gGroup, Department

Initialization

Technology Strategic / TacticalCriteria to

assessComplexity

FinancialGeographically

Riskassess projects

Financial aspects: Cost/

Effort / ROIOrganization: Cross function/

TowerPurpose

: Site / Region / Global

process automation/ legal/ IT cost reduction/ contractual/

business reorganization

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 36

Table of Contents

Introduction

Project Overview and Framework

1.

2 Project Overview and Framework

Generic Project Management

2.

3.

IT project management4.

International IT project management5.

Case Study: ERP implementation

Appendix & Back up slides

6.

7

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 37

Appendix & Back up slides7.

PMBOKPMBOKPMBOK

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 38

3.1 Knowledge areas of project management

3 5 3 Ti

3.5.1 Integration

3.5.3 Time3.5.2 Scope

Knowledge

g

3.5.4 Costareas

3.5.5 Quality3.5.9 Procurement

3.5.6 Human Resources3.5.8 Risk

3.5.7 Communication

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 39

Source: Knowledge areas of the PMBOK, 2004

3.5.7 Communication

3.1 Generic project processes –PM processes

• PM process of each knowledge area are mapped in five overlapping process groups

• Process Groups linked by objective they produce

• 44 processes available overall

• PM process of each knowledge area are mapped in five overlapping process groups

• Process Groups linked by objective they produce

• 44 processes available overall(For detailed process

mapping see )backupp

• Outputs of process groups & process are related and have impact on other process groups

p

• Outputs of process groups & process are related and have impact on other process groups

Level of process

Executing processes

Planningprocess interaction

3.5.1 Integration3.5.5 Quality 3.5.6 Human Resources3.5.7 Communication3.5.9 Procurement

Planning processes

3.5.* ALL!

3.5.1 Project integration

Closing processes

3.5.1 Project integration mgmt

Initiating processes

Controlling gmgmt

3.5.9 Procurement

mgmt

3.5.* ALL!

Controlling processes

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 40

Start FinishTimeSource: PMBOK

3.1 PMBOK 4th Edition Project Management Process Matrix

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 41

3.1 Knowledge areas of project management

Knowledge Area

PM

Chapter of PMBOK 2004

PM processes

“P j i h“Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements”project requirements

“A process is a set of actions and activities that are performed to achieve a pre-specified set of products,

l i ”

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 42

results or services”(Source: PMBOK p.37)

3.1. Project management processes

Underlying concept for interaction among project management processes

Enhanced Plan-Do-Check-Act cycleut Processes overlap

Underlying concept for interaction among project management processes

s

ojec

t Inp

u Processes overlap High degree of

process interaction Not just one singularel

iver

able

Pro Not just one singular

solution to manage a project

Since a project isPlan

Proj

ect D

e

Since a project is finite, Initiation and Closing processes are required

Donsor

Por

ds

Inputs & Outputs of each process are based or goes into other process or are

Do

ject

Spo

n

ojec

t Rec

oCarlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 43

pdeliverable of the project

Project boundaries

Proj

Pro

Source PMBOK, p.37 ff

3.2 Project integration management

“The Project Integration j gManagement includes the processes and activities to identify define combine unifyidentify, define, combine, unify and coordinate the various processes and project management activities within the Project Management Process Groups ”Process Groups.

(Source PMBOK p.77)

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 44

3.2. Project integration management

1 2 3

Four dimensions of the “Teufelsquadrat”

SW Quality(e.g. user

friendliness)

Quantity(e.g. N° of LOC or N° of functions implemented)

1 2 3

Measurement/ estimation leads to productivity

Productivity = Output / Input

friendliness) functions implemented)fe

lsqu

adra

t”

y(here represented by blue square) Productivity ( e.g. LOC/Md) of

project team is invariant

“Teu

f project team is invariant (short range)

Long-range factors to influence productivity: F ti ti ti

Formation, motivation, culture, methods applied,..

To change one parameter without the possibility of

Develop-ment cost (e.g. budget over-runs

Development time

+

without the possibility of changing productivity at least one parameter must be changed

through increased manpower)

(e.g. delayed start but fix end date)

The same thing gets more expensive the faster you

The same thing gets more expensive the faster you

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 45

Source: http://www.brz.gv.at/Content.Node_brz/Teufelsquadrat.pdf?SMSESSION=NO

Model of “Teufelsquadrat” provided by H.M. Sneed, in ”Software management”, 1987

expensive the faster you want it realized !

expensive the faster you want it realized !

3.2 Project integration management – Processes

Integration Management becomes evident when people interact!

D l li i j t t t t2

Develop project charter1

Develop project plan management3

Develop preliminary project scope statement2

Direct and manage project execution4

Monitor and control project work5

Integrated change control6

Close Project7

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 46

3.2 Project integration management –Process flow diagram (I)

backup

1

2

backup

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 47

3.2 Project integration management –Process flow diagram (II)

backup

33

backup

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 48

3.2 Project integration management

1 2 3

Develop project management plan:

1 2 3

Need to have high quality input to create useful plan Good concept for scope, SOW, high level design, architecture, etc The plan development usually is iterative, top down, with

increasing knowledge the plan gets better Need to tailor levels of planning planning thresholds and Need to tailor levels of planning, planning thresholds and

accuracy and releases of plans project by project Important is a process orientated decomposition of tasks and

identification of dependenciesidentification of dependencies

The project plan is the overall coordinating media for a project (hence project integration management)

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 49

Compare: Krallmann, SA, 4.A. S 136

3.2 Project integration management

1 2 3

Direct and manage project execution:

1 2 3

Key questions need to be answered:

1. What does it mean for our end date? Time1. What does it mean for our end date? Time

2. What does it mean for cost and resources? Budget

3 What does it mean for scope / deliverables? Scope

Plan

3. What does it mean for scope / deliverables? Scope

4. What risks does it imply or impact on quality? Quality

n

What does help? Resource tracking (capacity, EV) A meaningful plan that includes all sequential dependencies A meaningful plan that includes all sequential dependencies A work authorization system (this also is important to control scope changes) A detailed understanding of the work to be done and by whom and by when

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 50

A risk assessment and management plan

3.2 Project integration management

1 2 3

Integrated change control:

1 2 3

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 51

Source: Internet

3.2 Project integration management

Possible corrective actions:

Schedule variation: Donate more time, re-planning Scope variation: Less Scope Scope variation: Less Scope Prioritization: Freeze other work, delay certain tasks Changes of approach: Fast tracking Risk increase Resource variation: More people Higher productivity: Phasing schedule compression additional Higher productivity: Phasing, schedule compression, additional

motivation and rewards, consulting

Schedule Compression: Shortening the project schedule without reducing the project scope. Not always possible, may increase project cost (see “Teufelsquadrat”)

Fast Tracking: Compressing the project schedule by overlapping activities that would

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 52

Fast Tracking: Compressing the project schedule by overlapping activities that would normally be done in sequence, e.g. design & construction

3.3 Project scope management

“Project scope management j p gcontains the processes required to ensure that the project includes all the work requiredincludes all the work required and only the work required, to complete the project successfully”

(Source PMBOK p.103)

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 53http://www.go-projects.com/PMTips/101Scope/101scope.html

3.3 The importance of scope management

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 54

3.3 Project scope management

“The Vasa sailed about 1,300 meters and then, in a light

gust of wind, capsized in

Stockholm’s harbor

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 55

Stockholm s harbor, losing 53 lives.” Fairley/ Willshire

3.3 Project scope management – Processes

Creating a project scope management plan Defining & managing the scope influences the projects overall success! Documentation of the proceeding

Scope Planning

Development of detailed project scope statement Buildt on deliverables, assumptions, constraints of project’s initiation phaseScope

f

tion

Buildt on deliverables, assumptions, constraints of project s initiation phase Basis for future project decisions & critical to project’s success

Subdividing major project deliverables and project work into smaller more

Definition

Inte

ract Subdividing major project deliverables and project work into smaller, more

manageable components Deliverable orientated, to accomplish the project’s objective

Create WBS

Formalizing stakeholder’s acceptance of the completed project deliverables Establish, document the level and extinct of completion

Scope verification

Controlling the impacts of changes to the project scope To assure requested changes & recommended corrective actions are

processed through Integrated Change Control ProcessesScope control

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 56

processed through Integrated Change Control Processes To avoid uncontrolled changes = scope creep

backup

3.3 Project scope management – WBS concept

Work Breakdown Structure:

General WBS1. Project Management (WBS)

1. Project Management

2. Business Case Development (WBS)1. Business Case Creation

3. Portfolio Planning (WBS)

Hierarchical decomposition of project elements

Used to plan, manage, and analyze the

g ( )1. Submit Business Case (Milestone)2. Business Case Approval (Milestone)

4. Project Definition (WBS)1. Create Project Plan2. Create High Level Business Requirements3. Create High Level Design 4 Contract Book Consolidationp , g , y

work performed by a project

WBS element:

4. Contract Book Consolidation5. Contract Book Appraisal6. Defect Resolution - Project Definition7. Project Definition Approved (Milestone)

5. Implementation (WBS) 1. Project team Training2. Create Detailed Business Requirements3 I t D t il d B i R i tWBS element:

Also known as ‘task’ The individual elements of WBS

3. Inspect Detailed Business Requirements4. Detailed Business Reqmts - Defect Resolution5. Detailed Design Creation6. Detailed Design Appraisal7. Detailed Design - Defect Resolution8. Design Approved (Milestone)9. Development 10 Code Review

Work package / Activity

10. Code Review11. Development - Defect Resolution12. Creation of Test Plans13. Execute Unit Test 14. Execute Integration Test15. Ready for System Test (Milestone)16. Execute System Test 17. Execute Regression Test

Lowest level of WBS Clearly defined criteria for completion

(deliverables, completion date)

g18. Repeat Tests - due to defect19. Ready for Acceptance Testing (Milestone)20. Execute Acceptance Test21. Post-Test - Defect Resolution22. Delivery of End User Training23. User Sign-Off (Milestone) 24. Move to Production

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 57

6. Close-Out (WBS)1. Lessons Learned2. Close Out Activities3. User Sign-Off (Milestone)

3.3 Project scope management

Define also what is out of scope

Recommendations

Executives that do not understand

Threats

p Keep the scope small, you take a

higher chance of succeeding Use phasing to reduce scope

project and scope management Projects with no quantified

resources, cost, timelines etc. are dangerous p g p

Be very clear and concise about scope

Use scope reductions to make more t h

dangerous If there is no control over work to

be released to the team… Scope creep customers happy

Expectation management…

Scope creep

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 58

3.3 Project scope management – Example (I)

Development activities list D i i l d il Description, related process, status, milestones,… Assigned responsibility Start Date End Date Start Date – End Date Assigned priorities Used as a baseline for further analysis

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 59

y …

3.3 Project scope management – Example (II)

Left: Analysis of activities per prioritypriority

Right: Analysis of project performance by development of effort (calendar weeks)

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 60

of effort (calendar weeks)

3.3 Project scope management – Example (III)

Status date

• Periodical view, serves for future planning

• Past time: negative duration

• Calculations based on FTE

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 61

• Calculations based on FTE

• Bottleneck (neg. balance) Over-Capacity (pos. Balance)Dynamic chart that changes in time. Focus on future

capacity needed to fulfill tasks & project

3.4 Project time management

“The Project Time jManagement includes the processes required to accomplish timely completionaccomplish timely completion of the project.”

(Source PMBOK p.123)

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 62

3.4 Project time management – Planning

Identify specific activities that have to be performed to produce deliverables Decomposition from WBS to work package to schedule activity Activities: basis for estimating, scheduling, executing, monitoring, controlling

Activity definition

Techniques to use: Rolling wave planning, decomposition, templates

Identifying and documenting logical relationships among schedule activities Leads, Lags & MilestonesActivity Constraints: Finish to start, finish to finish, start to start, start to finish Using project management SW (use Gantt-chart)

ysequencing

Determining type, quantities, availability of required resourcesActivitytion

Determining type, quantities, availability of required resources Persons, equipment, material Closely coordinated with cost estimation processes

Activity resource

estimating

Estimate N° work periods that will be needed to complete individual activities

Inte

ract

Activity duration

estimating

Estimate N work periods that will be needed to complete individual activities Various estimation techniques Depends on quantity of resources scheduled Progressively elaborated, quality depends on quality of input data

Analyzing activity sequences, duration, resource requirements, constraints Iterative process, that resume results in Gantt-chart Creation of a project management baseline to track progress

Schedule development

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 63

Schedule Control

p j g p g

Source: pmbok p.123 f, *See http://members.aol.com/AllenWeb/software.html

Control changes to schedule plan

3.4 Process schema for estimation / scheduling

Effort [MD]

Non effort based cost itemsConstraint known:Go backwards and changeScope

Effort Cost

Effort [MD]Rough Cut Capacity by function

TO BE CAPACITY Cost [$]

Corrective

Si / S

Effort Estimation

Cost Estimation

H/C, [FTE]

actions

Size / Scope Estimation

orStaffing

Estimation Staffing

f (skills) * capacity required

or Assumption

EstimationEffort [MD]

AS IS CAPACITY

Duration Estimation Scheduling

Cycle Time

Scope descriptionProject goals

• Corrective actions

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 64

Cycle Time [month]

gWBS

Source: Internet, modified version from page 14, Proj_mgmt1.ppt

• Bottleneck analysis

3.4 Project time management – WBS & Gantt ChartSource

WBS G tt

e: Primavera Te

WBS Gantt

eamPlay Projecct M

anager Onlline Interactivee Training –

Scr

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 65

reenshot

3.4 Project time management – Practical expertise

Activities planning More overlapping and looped Less start finish dependencies (often default in PM SW) Less start finish dependencies (often default in PM-SW)

Estimation Provide staged estimates Corresponding with project phase & status of knowledge Use historical data to come to the right order of magnitude Close the loop Close the loop Loop again on project estimate accuracy

Detailed daily work planned and tracked daily Milestone orientation: Tactical vs. operational controlling

K i i d

Project schedule is always breathing

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 66“Who plans replaces random with error”

Keep in mind

3.4 Estimation process – Advanced

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 67

3.4 Estimation: Cone of uncertainty

E.g. SW development: Typical sources of uncertainty at each milestone • Primary functions (by role)

• Message types

Feasible performance bounds

• Types of users (role)

• External Interfaces

• External Constraints

• Error handling

• COTS Component performance

Optimal Algorithms

• Reliability

• Achievable Performance

• Tester understanding of

• Secondary functions

• Structure of internal and external logical files • Feasible performance bounds

• Analyst understanding of user needs

• External Constraints (Law, physics)

• Optimal Algorithms

• Developer understanding of implementation technology

• Tester understanding of workload scenarios

g

• Optimal architecture

• Developer understanding of methods and tools

“Cost M

odels fo

4x 1.6x

for Future Life cycleC

omp

Project S

2x

1.5x

1.25x1 0x

1.25x

1.15x

1.1x1 0x(e

ffort

& s

ize)

Processes: C

OC

Oleted by “10 deadly(

Schedule

1.0x0.8x

0.67x

0.5x

1.0x0.9x

0.85x

0.8xProj

ect C

ost

Good estimates

aren’t

Most estimates

are created

Source: A

dapO

MO

2.0” (Boehm

ety sins of softw

are e(C

onstrux-Presentat

0.25x 0.6x

aren t possible until here

here

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 68Project completion

pted from

t al. 1995)estim

ation”tion 2002)

Initial Project

Definition

Approved Project

Definition

Requirements Specification

Product Design

Specification

Detailed Design

Specification

Product Complete

3.4 Estimation methods typology

Estimation Methods

Model Based Non-Model Based

Generic Specific Top Down Bottom Up

• WBS • Group

D l hi

Other

Non Data driven Proprietary Composite

• Delphi

• Bayesian Nets

• Cocomo

• Cocomo II

Proprietary Methods

Parametric Non Parametric

p y

• Knowledge plan

• ESTIMACS

pMethods

• Cocomo II

• COBRA

• SLIMParametric Non Parametric

• PRICE-S• Neural Networks

• CART

• OSR

• Stepwise Anova• Analogy

• Function Points

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 69

Source: Modified version ofhttp://www.iese.fhg.de/network/ISERN/pub/technical_reports/isern-00-05.pdf, page 6

• OSR

• OSL

• RR

3.4 Estimation methods – Function Points (I)

model based specific composite

Function Point = measurement unit to gauge SW complexity & size

model based – specific – composite

g g p y

Introduced by Albrecht (IBM) in 1979

Designed to estimate and measure the Designed to estimate and measure the time, and thereby the cost, of developing new and maintaining existing software applicationsexisting software applications

Counting standard established and maintained by IFPUG (see www.ifpug.org)maintained by IFPUG (see www.ifpug.org)

Technology, platform, and language independent

But largely manual process

Accurate counting requires in-depth

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 70

g q pknowledge of standards

3.4 Estimation methods – Function Points (II)

Determine numbers of each function type

Judge the scale andFunction Type Total

E t l i t 6 3 1 4 6 22

Function Point Estimation

Average ComplexSimpleComplexity

Judge the scale and complexity of each function

Consider influence factors, that may vary FP up to 35%

External input 6 x 3 1 x 4 x 6 22External output 7 x 4 4 x 5 1 x 7 55External queries 5 x 3 3 x 4 1 x 6 33Internal files 5 x 7 2 x 10 x 15 55External interfaces 1 x 5 1 x 7 x 10 12

177Total Unadjusted Function Points (TUFP):that may vary FP up to 35% Calculate TAFP Use historical data on

development cost per

177

Influence factors 0-5 (0=low , 5=high)Data communications 1Heavily use configurationTransaction rate

Total Unadjusted Function Points (TUFP):

development cost per function point to make the estimate (e.g. programmer averages 20 FP per month and costs 5500€ )

End-user efficiencyComplex processing 5Installation easeMultiple sitesPerformance 3Di ib d f iand costs 5500€ )

Multiply function points times rate to get the estimate

Distributed functionsOn-line data entryOn-line update 4ReusabilityOperational easeExtensibilityExtensibilityTotal degree of Influence 13

Value Adjustment Factor VAF= 0.65 + (0.01 * TDI)= 0,78Total Adjusted Function Points TAFP = VAF * TUFP = 138,06

Input field calculation field

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 71

3.4 Estimation methods – CART (I)model based specific data driven parametric

Classification and Regression Trees (CART)

model based – specific – data driven – parametric

Algorithm for decision making, often used in decision trees

First published by L. Breiman in 1984

Important attribute: Only binary trees = only two branches on every node

Basic steps1. Tree building, starting with a root node some variables are found by CART

SW to split into child nodesp

2. Stopping the tree building process, maximal (over fitted) tree generated

3. Tree pruning, simplify trees through cutting off starting with unimportant and continuing with increasingly important nodescontinuing with increasingly important nodes

4. Optimal tree selection, using the tree that contains relevant but not overcrowded information (minimal entropy)

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 72

3.4 Estimation methods – CART (II)

Initial Question:

Use COTS, develop S/W or use some kind of mixture? How to estimate the effort?

Example• 1. Level: Make?

Make?

Size<1000 fp? Buy?

yes no

Decision is No! -> Buy or mixture

• 2. Level: Buy COTS, but need to be

t i dSize<1000 fp? Buy?

Complexity Low? Complexity Low? Complexity Low? ? Degree of customization<0,5

yes

no

no

yes yes noyes noyes no

yes nocustomized

60 md 80 md 75 md 110 md 15 md 40 md Complexity Low? Complexity Low?

no

yes no

yes yes no

yes no

yes noyes no

Variables Make or Buy (Make/ Buy/ Mixture) Size (in Function Points) C l i ( / N l hi h)

45 md 70 md 65 md 90 md

• 3. Level: Few calibration necessary (because degree of customization is < 50%)

Complexity (Low/ Not low = high)

Result R i t R lt i b ith d t t ti ti ( td

• 4. Level: Task is complex

• 5. Level: Historical effort of such a task averages 70 MD

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 73

Regression tree: Result is a number with correspondent statistics (std. deviation, 0,95-Interval)

Classification tree: Result is a category (e.g.: High/Middle/Low)

3.4 Estimation methods – Cocomo Iit’s not the Beach Boy’s song!

model based generic non proprietaryConstructive Cost Model:

To estimate programmer month for SW development

model based – generic – non proprietary

KLOCaE bbb )(development.

Using equations for effort (E) and duration (D)

Calculate number of people required (P) EEcD bd

b

b

)( Calculate number of people required (P)

Based on Line of Codes multiplied with predetermined coefficients (a, b, c, d), which depend on type and form of project

DEP

depend on type and form of project

Classify your project at the beginning:y y p j g g

-> in “Basic”, “Intermediate”, “Detailed” form

-> in project type (by size):p j yp ( y ) Organic Projects: Small teams in highly familiar in-house

environment

Semi-detached PJ: Intermediate size and complexity

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 74

Embedded PJ: Tight constraints (SW, HW, organization) prevalent

See: http://www.dacs.dtic.mil/techs/estimation/comparison.shtml

3.4 Estimation methods – Delphi method (I)not model based other

The Delphi Method of f ti t bli h d b th

not model based – other

forecasting established by the RAND corporation in 1964 1. Define the problem

2. Identify experts3. Round one questions

General questions To gain a broad understanding of the

Experts coordinated by facilitator

To obtain a broad range of

g gviews of the experts

Collate and summarize the results

4. Round two questions To obtain a broad range of

opinions

The aim is

Based on the responses to the first questions

Should dig more deeply into the topic

To progressively clarify and expand on issues

To identify areas of agreement di t

To clarify specific issues Collate and summarize the results

5. Round three questions

Carlo Selwat: International IT project management SYSEDV/ITPM SS 2005/www.sysedv.tu-berlin.de 75

or disagreement

To begin to establish priorities. The final questionnaire Focus on supporting decision making