International Finance 130440-1165 Exchange rate movements in the long term International Finance...
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Transcript of International Finance 130440-1165 Exchange rate movements in the long term International Finance...
International Finance 130440-1165
Exchange rate movements in the long term
International Finance 130440-1165
International Finance 130440-1165
Lecture outline
The law of one price
The purchasing power parity (PPP) theory
The monetary model and PPP
Extensions of the PPP theory
International Finance 130440-1165
The law of one price
Assumption: no barriers to trade, no transportation costs
The price of identical goods should be equal in different
countries if expressed in the same currency
Example:
If ER=1,5 USD/GBP PGBP=30 GBP PUSD=45 USD
International Finance 130440-1165
The law of one price
PGBP>PUSD imports from USA price
falls in GB
PUSD= ER USD/GBP*PGB
International Finance 130440-1165
The purchasing power parity theory
The purchasing power (PP) of a currency is
reflected in the nominal price of a reference
basket of goods and services.
If one can buy the same basket for 30 GBP and
for 45 USD the PP of the GBP is higher than of
the USD
International Finance 130440-1165
The purchasing power parity theory
The nominal ER of two currencies
conforms the PPP if for a unit of a
currency we can purchase the same
basket of goods in our country and abroad
International Finance 130440-1165
The purchasing power parity theory
The PP of two currencies is measured
with the real ER
RER= NER* Pn/Pa
NER*Pn/Pa=1 RER=1
International Finance 130440-1165
The purchasing power parity theory
Overvalued currency if RER>1 it means:
NER* Pn>Pa
Undervalued currency if RER<1 it means:
NER* Pn>Pa
Arbitrage Pn and NER decreases (or
increases) so RER=1
International Finance 130440-1165
The absolute and relative version of PPP theory
The absolute version seem not to be
confirmed empirically
RER does not equal 1!
International Finance 130440-1165
The PLN RER vs EUR
Źródło: R. Kelm, Model behawioralnego kursu równowagi złotego do euro, Bank i Kredyt 41 (2), NBP,
Warszawa 2010.
International Finance 130440-1165
The absolute and relative version of PPP theory
The relative version of the theory: the NER changes of one currency equal the
difference between the domestic price changes
and abroad
(NERt-NERt-1)/NERt-1=Πnt-Πat
International Finance 130440-1165
Inflation differentials
According to the PPP theory the changes
in the nominal ER are due to inflation
differentials
Πn=3% Πa=1% the national currency
should depreciate at 2% p.a.
NERt/NERt-1=101/103=98%
International Finance 130440-1165
Empirical verification of PPP
Empirical proofs only in a longer term
The PPP RER is offen used to compare
wealth in different countries
Problem- consumption structure
Depending on the reference basket- there
are several RER PPP
International Finance 130440-1165
The monetary model based on PPP
Assumption: NER= Pn/Pa so the PPP is fullfilled
Pn=Mn/L(in, Yn)
Pa= Ma/L(ia, Ya)
NER is determined in the long term by the
relative money supply and demand in two
countries
International Finance 130440-1165
The monetary model based on PPP
Money supply increase price increase
currency depreciation
Interest rate increase decrease of money
demand by constant money supply increase of
prices depreciation
Production increase money demand increase
price decrease appreciation
International Finance 130440-1165
The monetary model based on PPP
Puzzling evidence??
The influence of interest rate changes on
ER depends on the reason why the
interest rate changed!
International Finance 130440-1165
The monetary model based on PPP
Raising money supply Persistent inflation
The interest rate parity and PPP
If people expect the PPP theory to hold, the
interest rate difference between two countries
equals the difference between the expected
inflation in those two countries
International Finance 130440-1165
The monetary model based on PPP
Πe=(Pe-P)/P
(NERe-NER)/ NER= Πen- Πea
in= ia+ (NERe-NER)/NER
in- ia = Πen- Πea
International Finance 130440-1165
The Fisher effect
in- ia = Πen- Πea
The increase of the expected inflation in
one country causes in a long term an
identical increase of the interest rate
denominated in the currency of this
country
International Finance 130440-1165
The Fisher effect
The effect holds only in long term
It explains the paradox of the relation
between ir changes and er changes
In the short term- sticky prices
International Finance 130440-1165
The empirical verification of the relative PPP theory
Źródło: R. Kelm, Model behawioralnego kursu równowagi złotego do euro, Bank i Kredyt 41 (2), NBP,
Warszawa 2010.
International Finance 130440-1165
Main factors impeding PPP
Barriers to trade
Non-tradable goods
Incompetitive market structures
Differences in consumption structures
and prices
The Ballassa-Samuelson effect
International Finance 130440-1165
Barriers to trade
Transportation cost
Trade policy
Barriers to capital movement
International Finance 130440-1165
Nontradable goods
Services
No international price relation
Great share of nontradables in GDP
International Finance 130440-1165
The Big Mac Index
International Finance 130440-1165
Incompetitive market structures
Market segmentation
Price discrimination
Dumping prices
International Finance 130440-1165
Consumption structure differences
Different measures of prices and inflation Majority of consumption- national
products Differences in consumption structure
influence PPP ER
International Finance 130440-1165
The Balassa-Samuelson effect
The price level in countries with higher labour
productivity grwoth is higher than in countries
with lower productivity growth
Differences in productivity growth in tradables
and nontradables sectors
Productivity growth wages growth in both
sectors
International Finance 130440-1165
The Balassa-Samuelson effect
Higher inflation in the nontradables sector
Effect- countries with higher
productivity higher price level RER
>1
Especially- cathing up countries
International Finance 130440-1165
Extending the PPP theory
Real ER movements
Long term equilibrium on the FX market
International long term ineterest rate
differentials
International Finance 130440-1165
Real exchange rate movements
RER depreciation
RER appreciation
Example: NER USD decreases from 0,7 to 0,6 EUR/USD
ΠEUR= 105 and ΠUSD=130
This means USD RER appreciation
RERt/RERt-1= (NERt/NERt-1)* Πn/Πa
=(0,6/0,7)*(130/105)= 1,06
International Finance 130440-1165
Long term equilibrium on the FX market
NER=RER*(Pn/Pa)
by given RER the NER is influenced by
money demand and supply
by given money demand and supply NER
is influenced by RER
International Finance 130440-1165
Long term equilibrium on the FX market
Shifts in relative money supply Shifts in relative money supply growth
rates Shifts in relative demand for products Shifts in relative supply of products
International Finance 130440-1165
Long term equilibrium on the FX market
If all shock are monetary in a long term
the RER conforms PPP!!!
Monetary shocks influence only the PP
which changes the ER
If real shocks occure- the ER does not
conform to PPP
International Finance 130440-1165
International long term interest rate differentials
Interest rate differentials depend not only on
inflation expectations but also on expected RER
in-ia= (NERe-NER)/NER +(Πen - Πea )
The interest rate differential equals the expected
real depreciation of the ER and expected
inflation differentials
International Finance 130440-1165
Real ineterest rate parity
The expected RER changes equal the
expected real interest rate changes
rine-riae=(RERe-RER)/RER
International Finance 130440-1165
Summing up
No empirical evidence of the absolute
version of the PPP theory
NER*Pn/Pa=1 RER=1
The relative version of the PPP theory
(NERt-NERt-1)/NERt-1=Πnt-Πat
Empirical evidence only in the long term
International Finance 130440-1165
Summing up
The monetary model based on PPP
The Fisher effect
in- ia = Πen- Πea
Factors impeding the PPP theory
Extensions of the PPP theory
International Finance 130440-1165
References
P. Krugman, M.Obstfeld, International economics: theory and policy. Part II, Pearson, Addison Wesley, Boston 2009
R. Kelm, Model behawioralnego kursu równowagi złotego do euro, Bank i Kredyt 41 (2), NBP, Warszawa 2010
M. Rubaszek, Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in Poland, Bank i Kredyt 40 (1), NBP, Warszawa 2009.
R. Clarida, J. Gali, Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how importanta are nominal shocks?, NBER Working Paper, 1994.
M. Wagner, J. Hlouskova, What’s really the story with this
Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?, Diskussionschriften, Universität Bern, 2004