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Transcript of INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY © OECD/IEA - 2009 Our Global Energy Future Looking beyond the economic...
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Our Global Energy FutureOur Global Energy FutureLooking beyond the economic crisisLooking beyond the economic crisis
Ministry of EconomyMinistry of EconomyWarsawWarsaw
12 May 200912 May 2009
Mr. Nobuo TanakaMr. Nobuo TanakaExecutive DirectorExecutive Director
International Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Weakening economy drives oil demand revisions
Two year demand contraction in 08/09 first since early-1980s OECD hit hard, but clear signs that non-OECD is slowing now too Latest GDP estimates suggest -1.4% for 2009, with consensus of gradual
recovery in 2010 Prices bottoming-out in the face of OPEC supply cuts, and a degree of post-
G20 ‘bounce’
OMR 2009 Oil Demand & GDPForecast Evolution
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
Jul-0
8
Aug-08
Sep-0
8
Oct
-08
Nov-08
Dec-0
8
Jan-0
9
Feb-0
9
Mar
-09
Apr-09
mb/d
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Y-o-Y%
World GDP Growth
Total Demand
Crude FuturesFront Month Close
303540455055606570
Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09Mar 09 Apr 09
$/bbl
NYMEX WTI ICE Brent
Source: Platts
IEA April 2008 Oil Market Report
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Evaluating oil supply-side impacts
3
Supply also affected, on weak demand, low prices, credit crunch & investment slippage 、
2009 forecast already down by 1.7 mb/d since July 2008, excluding 2008 baseline changes
Canada & Russia taking a hit in terms of investment & likely output
$50/bbl oil unlikely to see extensive shut-ins of current output per se
But impact of lower spend on new projects and prevailing decline rates at mature fields
-1.80
-1.60
-1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
Change to 2009 supply forecast, net of 2008 baseline changes, mb/d
OPEC crude
OPEC gas liquids
Non-OPEC
© OECD/IEA - 2009
World Oil Production by Source IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008
Business as Usual Scenario
Around 65 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth and offset decline
20 mb/d
45 mb/d
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Long-term oil-supply cost curveLong-term oil-supply cost curve(with $50 per tonne of CO(with $50 per tonne of CO22) )
A carbon price of $50 per tonne of CO2 would increase the cost of producing non-conventional oil the most – by as much as $30 per barrel – due to its higher energy intensity
© OECD/IEA - 2009
European Responses to January 2009 Gas Supply Disruption
Interconnector UK-BE reversed
BBL NL-UK reduced
Yamal increase
Blue Stream increase
Increase Germany -Croatia
Increasing Croatian production share off-take
Reverse flow Czech to Slovakia
Hungary increase to Serbia & Bosnia
Reverse flow from Greece to Bulgaria
Additional spot LNG to Greece & Turkey
7 Jan (immediate) 10 Jan. 16 Jan. 18 Jan.
Timeline of Actions
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Cumulative energy supply investment
in Business as Usual, 2007-2030
Investment of $26 trillion, or over $1 trillion/year, is needed, but the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply-crunch once the economy recovers
Power generation
50%
Transmission & distribution
50%Mining
91%
Shipping & ports
9%
Exploration and development
80%
Refining16%
Shipping4%
Exploration & development
61%LNG chain
8%
Transmission & distribution
31%
Power 52%
$13.6 trillion
Oil 24%
$6.3 trillion
Gas21%
$5.5 trillion
Coal 3%
$0.7 trillion
Biofuels <1%
$0.2 trillion
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Energy-related CO2 emissions Business as Usual Scenario
97% of the projected increase in emissions between 2006 & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries – three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gig
aton
nes
Internationalmarine bunkersand aviationOECD - gasOECD - oilOECD - coalNon-OECD - gasNon-OECD - oilNon-OECD - coal
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Energy-related CO2 emissions 450 Policy Scenario
In the 450 Policy Scenario emissions peak around 2020,and then decline by more than 1/3 to reach 26 Gt in 2030
Internationalmarine bunkersand aviationOECD - gasOECD - oilOECD - coalNon-OECD - gasNon-OECD - oilNon-OECD - coal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gig
aton
nes
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Policy Scenario
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gig
aton
nes
OECD+
Non-OECD
Reference Scenario
450 Policy Scenario
CCS - 21%
Renewables & biofuels - 18%Nuclear - 14%
Energy efficiency - 47%
CCS - 10%
Renewables & biofuels - 25%Nuclear - 6%
Energy efficiency - 59%
35% (5.2 Gt reduction)
65% (9.5 Gt reduction)
Energy Efficiency 54%
CCS 14% Nuclear 9% Renewables & biofuels 23%
World total
•OECD and non-OECD countries must both work towards reducing CO2 emissions•Energy efficiency plays a key role for both OECD and non-OECD countries•To inform the international climate negotiations, the IEA will release an early excerpt of the WEO 2009 climate change analysis, to coincide with post-Kyoto negotiations this September
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Total power generation capacity today and in 2030 by scenario
In the 450 Policy Scenario, the power sector undergoes a dramatic change – with CCS, renewables and nuclear each playing a crucial role
0 1 000 2 000 3 000
Other renewables
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal and gas with CCS
Gas
Coal
GW
1.2 x today
1.5 x today
13.5 x today
2.1 x today
1.8 x today
12.5 x today
15% of today’s coal & gas capacity
Today Reference Scenario 2030 450 Policy Scenario 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Roadmaps can accelerate deployment of key clean energy technologies
Supply side CCS power generation Coal – IGCC Coal – USCSC Nuclear III + IV Solar – PV Solar – CSP Wind Biomass – IGCC & co-
combustion Electricity networks 2nd generation
biofuels
Demand side Energy efficiency in
buildings Energy efficient motor
systems Efficient ICEs Heat pumps Plug-ins and electric vehicles Fuel cell vehicles Industrial CCS Solar heating Efficient industry processes
(starting with Cement)
Work has already begun on technologies shown in green, and these roadmaps will be launched later in 2009.
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Global electricity generation(450 ppm Scenario)
Renewables and nuclear power will increase
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2006 2030
Wind
Hydrogen
Other Renewables
Biomass & Waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
41%
18%
2%
6%
22%
20%
5%
9%
(1%)
21%
16%
1%1%
4%18%
40%15%
18%
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Nuclear power needs to play a larger role in 2050
Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2008 shows that significant increase of nuclear generation in both OECD countries and non-OECD countries is essential to
halve the current level of energy related CO2 emission by 2050.
© OECD/IEA - 2009
IEA 25 energy efficiency policy recommendations across 7 priority
areas1. Across sectors1.1 Measures for increasing investment in energy
efficiency;1.2 National energy efficiency strategies and goals;1.3 Compliance, monitoring, enforcement and
evaluation of energy efficiency measures;1.4 Energy efficiency indicators;1.5 Monitoring and reporting progress with the IEA
energy efficiency recommendations themselves. 2. Buildings2.1 Building codes for new buildings;2.2 Passive Energy Houses and Zero Energy
Buildings;2.3 Policy packages to promote energy efficiency in
existing buildings;2.4 Building certification schemes;2.5 Energy efficiency improvements in glazed areas. 3. Appliances3.1 Mandatory energy performance requirements or
labels;3.2 Low-power modes, including standby power, for
electronic and networked equipment;3.3 Televisions and “set-top” boxes; 3.4 Energy performance test standards and
measurement protocols.
4. Lighting4.1 Best practice lighting and the
phase-out of incandescent bulbs;
4.2 Ensuring least-cost lighting in non-residential buildings and the phase-out of inefficient fuel-based lighting.
5. Transport5.1 Fuel-efficient tyres;5.2 Mandatory fuel efficiency
standards for light-duty vehicles;
5.3 Fuel economy of heavy-duty vehicles;
5.4 Eco-driving.
6. Industry6.1 Collection of high quality
energy efficiency data for industry;
6.2 Energy performance of electric motors;
6.3 Assistance in developing energy management capability;
6.4 Policy packages to promote energy efficiency in small and medium-sized enterprises.
7. Utilities7.1 Utility end-use energy efficiency
schemes
USD 128 Billion in energy efficiency
USD 128 Billion in energy efficiency
stimulus from IEA Countries
stimulus from IEA Countries
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Impact of financial crisis on global investment Impact of financial crisis on global investment in renewable energyin renewable energy
Renewable energy investment has collapsed due to the financial crisis – which has dried up sources of project finance – and lower fossil-fuel prices ….
Source: NEF, IEA analysis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Geothermal
Marine & small-hydro
Biomass
Solar
Wind
Billi
on d
olla
rs
-38%
… IEA G-8 paper estimates spending in 2009 will drop by 38% relative to 2008
© OECD/IEA - 2009
adapted from VGB 2007; efficiency – HHV,net
Average worldwide
~28.4%
~1110 gCO2/kWh
~36%
~880 gCO2/kWh
EU average
~42%
~740 gCO2/kWh
State-of-the artPC/IGCC
CCS
<2020
~48%
~665 gCO2/kWh
Advanced R&D
but deep cuts only by
Carbon Capture and Storage – energy efficiency alone is not enough
gCO
2/kW
h
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Carbon Capture and Storage - only 4 full-scale projects exist today
G8 goal: 20 full-scale demonstrations announced by 2010
© OECD/IEA - 2009
CO2 Storage Prospectivity
Source: Bradshaw, J. and Dance, T. (2004): “Mapping geological storage prospectivity of CO2 for the world’s sedimentary basins and regional source to sink matching,” in (E.S. Rubin, D.W. Keith and C.F. Gilboy eds.), GHGT-7, Proc. Seventh International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, Vancouver, B.C., Canada, September 5-9, 2004.
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Shifting to the 450 ppm scenario requires significant investment
Huge investment in power plants and energy efficiency is required to shift the world onto a 450 ppm trajectory
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2010-2020 2021-2030 2010-2020 2021-2030
Power plants Energy efficiency
Billi
on d
olla
rs (2
007)
450 Policy Scenario(additional to 550)
550 Policy Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Total oil production in 2030 by scenario
Curbing CO2 emissions would improve energy security by cutting demand for fossil fuels, but even in the 450 Policy Scenario, OPEC production increases by 12 mb/d from now to 2030
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 Reference Scenario2030
550 Policy Scenario2030
450 Policy Scenario2030
Non-OPECOPECm
b/d
12 mb/d
9 mb/d16 mb/d
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Summary For energy security
need to diversify oil and gas sourcesmust ensure continued supply-side investment to
meet oil demand and address production decline in mature fields and investment throughout the gas supply chain
For energy security and climate change mitigationmust invest in low carbon technologies: CCS,
renewables, nuclear and energy efficiency must all be embraced
Economic crisis is an opportunity to place a Clean Energy New Deal at the heart of economic stimulus packages everywhere.