INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION WORLD FEDERATION OF TOURIST GUIDE ASSOCIATIONS WFTGA 2013
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INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION
WORLD FEDERATION OF TOURIST GUIDE ASSOCIATIONS
WFTGA 2013
Macau, China 14-18 January 2013
Mr. Márcio Favilla L. de PaulaExecutive Director, Competitiveness, External Relations and Partnerships
UNWTO
Results 2011
International Tourist Arrivals990 million
+5.0%
International Tourism Receipts(BOP Travel)
US$ 1,035 billion (euro 740 bn) +3.9% (real terms)
+International passenger transport
(BOP Transport, passenger)US$ 203 billion (euro 144 bn)
www.unwto.org/facts
Inbound tourism: World
International tourist arrivals, 1995-2011* (million)
528560
586 602 625674 673 693 684
755799
845900 919
883941
403437 436 443 457 476 466 485
533
634679
744
858
941
853
928
85 92 96 95 97 98 93 95 101 121 133 144169 186
155 174
990 mn
US$ 1.035 bn
US$ 203 bn
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011*
International tourist arrivals (million)International tourism receipts (BOP Travel, US$ billion)
Int. passenger transport (BOP Transp, pass, US$ billion)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
% c
hang
e ov
er p
revi
ous
year
International tourist arrivals
International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)
growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely
Asian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower
11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected
‘Great recession’: receipts more affected and slower to recover
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM 2011*International tourist arrivals and receipts and market share (%)
International Tourist Arrivals (ITA)990 million
International Tourism Receipts (ITR)US$ 1,035 billion
AmericasITA: 157 million (16%)ITR: US$ 199 billion (19%)
AfricaITA: 50 million (5%)ITR:US$ 33 billion (3%)
EuropeITA: 509 million (51%)ITR: US$ 464 billion (45%)
Middle EastITA: 56 million (6%)ITR: US$ 47 bn (5%)
Asia and the PacificITA: 218 million (22%)ITR: US$ 291 billion (28%)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Results2012
www.unwto.org/facts
International tourism continues to grow strongly
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
+2.1% -3.9% +6.6% +5.0% +4.1%
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Asia and the Pacific (% change)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
+1.1% -1.6% +13.2% +6.4% +7.3%
Emerging destinations suffered less inthe crisis and recovered quicker
International Tourist Arrivals (% change)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
-0.3
-4.5
5.2 5.2
3.6
9.3
5.1
-3.1
8.2
4.9 4.64.4
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
07/06 08/07 09/08 10/09 11/10 12*/11 YTD
Advanced economiesEmerging economies
International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
54
10
8
4
11
1
12
3 3
4
9
-9
7
-7
0
3
9
1
78
5
8
3
5
76
10
4
-1
5.04.1
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
World
Northe
rn Euro
pe
Wester
n Euro
pe
Centra
l/Eas
tern E
urope
Southe
rn/Med
iter. E
u.
North-E
ast A
sia
South-
East A
sia
Ocean
ia
South
Asia
North A
merica
Caribb
ean
Centra
l Ameri
ca
South
America
North A
frica
Subsa
haran
Africa
Middle
East
11/10 12*/11 January - August
2012: positive growth in all regions except ME
International tourism: projection full year 2012
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2011(Full year)
Forecast 2012(done January)
YTD 2012 (Jan.-Aug.)
World +5.0% 3% to 4% 4.1%
Europe +6.7% 2% to 4% 3.4%
Asia and the Pacific +6.4% 4% to 6% 7.3%
Americas +4.2% 2% to 4% 3.6%
Africa +0.3% 4% to 6% 6.1%
Middle East -7.0% 0% to 5% -1.4%
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourist arrivals
7.9
-0.1
2.9
-1.6
10.3
5.9 6.0 6.5
2.1
-3.9
6.44.6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*
Forecast 2012: 3% to 4%2013: 2% to 4%
Outlook: World ch
ange
(%)
Tourism towards 2030
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
International arrivals to reach 1.4 billion in 2020 and 1.8 billion
by 2030
1 bn
1.8 bn
1.4 bn
Average annual growth 2010-2030: +3.3%
+ 43 million
Growth in international tourism will continue,
but at a more moderate paceInternational tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
3
0
0
1
9
4
3
9
7
6
7
0
9
3
44
6
5
3
4
8
0
3
-2
10
66
7
2
-4
7
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29
2010 – 2030 : 3.3%
3.8 % 2.9%2010 - 2020
2020 - 2030
1980 – 1995: 4.4% 1995 – 2010: 3.9%
Average annual growth
Average annual growth Average annual growth
International tourist arrivals to increase
by 43 million a year on average International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
8
0
0
4
25
1310
3027
22
28
-2
39
15
21 20
33
26
16
22
49
-1
20
-11
70
45 45
56
20
-35
58
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2010 – 2030 : +43 mn
2010 - 2020
2020 - 2030+42 mn + 45
mn1980 – 1995: +17 mn 1995 – 2010: +28 mn
Average growth
Average growth Average growth
Emerging economies destinations to surpass advanced destinations by
2015Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million
emerging economies
advanced economies
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
457 mn
772 mn
552 mn
523 mn
1,037 mn
540 mn
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares
Africa
3%
Americas
23%
Asia and the Pacific
8%
Europe
63%
Middle East
3%
Middle East
6%
Europe
51%
Asia and the Pacific
22%
Americas
16%
Africa
5%
Africa
7%
Americas
14%Asia and the Pacific
30%
Europe
41%
Middle East
8%
1980 (277 mn)
2010 (940 mn)
2030 (1.8 bn)
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million
Europe
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
Middle East
Africa
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most
509 mn
832 mn
205 mn 541 mn
160 mn
265 mn
37 mn
30 mn
81 mn
90 mn
Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals
Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million
Europe
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
Middle East
Africa
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
744 mn
204 mn
150 mn
50 mn
61 mn
475 mn
535 mn
248 mn
149 mn
134 mn
Emergingmarkets
International tourist arrivals by country of destination
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011*
milli
on
advanced economiesemerging economies
Growth: Driven by emerging destinations
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourist arrivals by country of destination
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011*
shar
e (%
)
advanced economiesemerging economies
Growth: Driven by emerging destinations (share)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourist arrivals by country of destination
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
milli
on
To emerging economies from other region
To emerging economies from same region
To advanced economies from other region
To advanced economies from same region
Most arrivals within own region
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Rank 1950 Share 1970 Share 1990 Share 2011 Share
1 United States Italy France France2 Canada Canada United States United States3 Italy 71% France 43% Spain 39% China 31%4 France Spain Italy Spain5 Switzerland United States Austria Italy
6 Ireland Austria Mexico Turkey7 Austria Germany Germany United Kingdom8 Spain 17% Switzerland 22% United Kingdom 18% Germany 13%9 Germany Yugoslavia Canada Malaysia
10 United Kingdom United Kingdom China Mexico
11 Norway Hungary Greece Austria12 Argentina Czechoslovakia Portugal Russian Federation13 Mexico 9% Belgium 10% Switzerland 9% Hong Kong (China) 11%14 Netherlands Bulgaria Yugoslav SFR Ukraine15 Denmark Romania Malaysia Thailand
Others 3% Others 25% Others 34% Others 45%
Total 25 million 166 million 436 million 990 million
Diversification of destinations
Average annual growth: 2000-2011*International tourist arrivals (% a year 2000-2011*)
7,97,5 7,2
6,5 6,46,0
4,9 4,73,9 3,6
3,1 2,8
1,8 1,5 1,3 1,0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Emerging markets characteristics
• Sizeable population → still limited number taking part in international tourism → huge growth potential
• Economies rapid economic growth → disposable incomes increase
• A relative big share of this increase will be spent on tourism (domestic as well as international)
• Emerging middle classes:– Growing proportion of population able to take
part and taking part in tourism• Increasing frequency of existing travelers• Increased competition →diversification strategies
World’s Top Economies in 2030: BRICS on the spot
1 USA 2 China 3 Japan 4 Germany 5 France 6 UK 7 Italy 8 Brazil 9 Russia 10 Canada 11 India 12 Spain 13 Australia 14 Mexico 15 Korea (ROK)
14.65.64.83.62.92.62.32.01.71.61.61.51.21.11.0
31.722.9
8.05.95.94.74.44.23.63.02.92.32.12.01.8
Source: IMF
1 China 2 USA 3 India 4 Brazil 5 Japan 6 Russia 7 Germany 8 France 9 UK 10 Mexico 11 Italy 12 Canada 13 Korea (ROK)14 Spain 15 Australia
Country GDP 2030 (USD trn)Country GDP 2010 (USD trn)
Projection in 2010 constant dollars; source: Goldman Sachs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
5
10
31
95 5
10 10
30,5
4 59
29
58
22
13
8
25
19
62 2.598
9 9
(Million)
2000 2011 *Data for 2010
Fast-growing emerging destinationsInbound tourism 2000 - 2011
0,8
United
States
German
y
United
Kingdo
mJap
anFran
ceChin
a
Russian
Federa
tion
Brazil
Spain
Repub
lic of
Korea
Saudi
Arabia
India
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
65
53
3832
23
139
4 6 7
NA3
78
86
51
27
44
73
32
2117
20 1814
2000 2011
US$ billion
1
2000: Top 5 : US$ 213 billion (47%)2011: Top 5 : US$ 332 billion (32%)
2000 – US$ 475 bi-llion2011 – US$ 1.035 bi-llion
Emerging markets increasing expenditure abroad
International tourism expenditure 2000 - 2011
2 2 1
3 4
4 9 5
5
7
3
712 18 15 17 23
12 151826 32
International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
German
y
United S
tates
China
United K
ingdo
mFran
ce
Canad
a
Russian
Federat
ion Italy
Japan
Austral
ia
Belgium Braz
il
Singapo
re
Netherl
ands
Korea,
Republic
of
Hong K
ong (
China)
Saudi
Arabia
Spain
Norway
Sweden
Switzerla
ndInd
ia
Malaysia
2011 2012*
International tourism expenditure in major outbound markets: BRICs are
hot
BR I
C
World and regions: Outbound TourismInternational Tourism Expenditure (US$ billion)
Germany
United States
China
United Kingdom
France
CanadaRussian FederationItalyJapan
Belgium
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Everybody chasing the Chinese tourist…
China Outbound Travel Market
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
• China is the most populated country in the world and the world’s second largest economy. China is also one of the fastest growing travel markets in the world, both in terms of international visitor arrivals and expenditure abroad
• China is the third largest spender in the world after Germany (US$ 86 billion) and the United States (US$ 79 billion). Chinese travellers spent US$ 73 billion in 2011, a more than three-fold increase from 2005, when expenditure was US$ 22 billion.
• Thanks to rising disposable incomes, rapid urbanization and relaxations of restrictions on foreign travel, outbound trips from China have grown an average 19% a year since 2000. Chinese had taken 34.5 million trips abroad (2006). By 2011, this figure had risen to over 70 million, and continues to increase steadily.
UNWTO reports on Outbound Markets• The Indian Outbound Travel
Market (2007)• The Chinese Outbound Travel
Market (2008) (new update forthcoming, 2012)
• The Russian Outbound Travel Market (2009)
• The Middle East Outbound Travel Market (2012)
• The US Outbound Travel Market (2013)
• The Latin American Outbound Travel Market (2013)
• The Brazil Outbound Market (2013)
Tourism in the global agenda
• G20 recognizes for the first time Travel and Tourism as a vehicle for job creation, economic growth and development, and commits to work on travel facilitation
• Rio+20 recognizes the significant contribution of sustainable tourism to the three dimensions of sustainable development, its linkages to other sectors and its capacity to create decent jobs and trade opportunities.
Thank you very much for your attention!
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org